Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 221935 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
235 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to ridge west into the Mid-Atlantic as
the center remains offshore. A slow-moving upper level trough will
cross the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states through tonight. An
upper level ridge will again briefly build over the eastern U.S.
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...

Closed southern-stream low over the northern GOM will move east-
southeastward across southern Florida and the Keys late tonight
through early Thursday. With the system suppressed well to our
south, weak forcing via weak upglide and weak DPVA will support
ample cloudiness, but very little in the form of rain in the form
of patchy rain/isolated showers for the remainder of the day and
into the evening.

In-situ wedge in place across the NW Pied that developed in response
to the batch of light precip that moved earlier this morning and
that will likely be sustained by stratus cloud cover within the weak
upslope flow will result in a rather NW to SE temperature gradient,
ranging from upper 50s/lower 60s NW to mid 70s SE.

Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight, which will support
another mild night under light southerly flow. Lows 50 to 55.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Wednesday...

Strengthening synoptic scale subsidence with a mid to upper level
ridge building into the area in the wake of the closed low moving
off the Florida coast will give way to increasing sunshine
throughout the day. Weak sely onshore flow will prove of little
consequence as enhanced mid-level moisture stream moves offshore
while remaining capped aloft. Thus, will keep forecast dry.

With the erosion of the in-situ wedge across the NW Piedmont, the
warmth that central and eastern sections experienced today will
spread to all of central NC on Thursday. A projected 10 meter
low-level thickness increase will support highs ranging from
lower 70s NW to upper 70s SE, which will approach record
territory(see climate records below). Lows in the 50s.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

Our weather pattern through this period displays little deviation
from the theme of this winter with above normal temperatures
interrupted by brief cool periods, and below normal precipitation.

A s/w ridge will extend across the region Friday while a sfc high
will be positioned offshore. The low level sly flow advecting a warm
air mass into central NC, coupled with warming aloft attributed to
the mid/upper level ridge will spell well above normal temperatures
Friday afternoon.  The partial sunshine and a warm sw flow will
boost temperatures into the 75-80 degree range, a solid 20-25
degrees above normal for late February. These readings will be just
shy of record levels which are near 80-lower 80s (see CLIMATE
section below for the details).

The narrow mid-upper ridge will drift offshore Friday night in
advance of a s/w crossing the Great Lakes. The deepening sw flow
will result in very mild overnight conditions and a gradual increase
in cloud coverage. Overnight temperatures will average several
degrees above the normal high temps. Min temps in the 55-60 degree
range anticipated.

The s/w well to our north will drive a sfc cold front across central
NC on Saturday. A marginally moist and a conditionally, slightly
unstable, air mass should support the development of scattered
showers, and possibly a thunderstorm across the coastal plain
Saturday afternoon. The support aloft will be weakening with time
and the model trend has been toward the atmosphere drying out with
time. So while there is still the potential for a few showers, some
locations will not see any rainfall, especially south of highway 64.
Southwest flow ahead of the front coupled with the warm start to the
day should yield high temps back into the mid-upper 70s, warmest
southeast.

The cold front will sweep east across the region late Saturday and
Saturday evening, ending the threat for showers and skies clearing
west-to-east fairly quick. temps will cool rapidly Saturday night
reaching into the mid-upper 30s across the Piedmont by early Sunday,
and the lower 40s southeast.

High pressure will build and settle over the region Sunday-Monday
with clear-partly cloudy skies and cooler, but still slightly above
normal, temperatures anticipated. The cool down will be brief as
temps Sunday in the 50s to around 60 will rebound back into the low-
mid 60s Monday. The chilliest night should be Sunday night with
overnight temps in the mid-upper 30s expected. May see lows near 30
in the normally colder locations.

A weakening upper disturbance in the southern stream will approach
from the west Monday night and Tuesday, leading to increasing clouds
and a small threat for light rain. The mild/warm temperatures will
persist.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1 PM Wednesday...

24-Hour TAF period: Weak southerly upglide, enhanced by an upslope
component at KINT and KGSO will support low end VFR with brief
periods of MVFR possible through 21z. Elsewhere, VFR ceilings should
prevail. Winds at KINT and KGSO will generally be light and variable
, while all remaining taf sites should see light south-southeasterly
winds.

With continued weak advection of warm moist air in the southerly
flow, we could see some patchy fog/low stratus develop between 06Z
and 12Z Thursday, especially at KINT and KGSO where lift will be
orographically enhanced. Strong daytime heating should burn-off any
fog that develops.  Winds will remain light and from the south-
southeast.

Looking ahead: Aside from some early morning fog/stratus, expect
predominately VFR conditions through early next week. The exception
will be a very isolated/small chance of a shower or thunderstorm as
a cold front moves through the area Saturday afternoon. Winds will
become breezy Saturday afternoon as the front approaches from the
west, with sustained winds between 15 to 20kts, gusting 25 to 30
kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures
      February 23rd         February 24th        February 25th

GSO      73/1980                79/1982             81/1930
RDU      79/1980                81/1982             82/1930
FAY      80/1922                83/1930             85/1930

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KC/Hartfield
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH


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