Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 171453
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1050 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY STRONG...POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY...THEN MEANDER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1050 AM THURSDAY...

...A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT IN THE PIEDMONT...

DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL ADVISORY WILL BE UPCOMING.

OTHERWISE... VERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUED TO BE FUNNELED INTO CENTRAL NC LATE
THIS MORNING. A CONTINUED SW FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS HAS ALLOWED SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO STREAK ACROSS THE SKY NOTED BY THE CIRRUS. THIS PROCESS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE CIRRUS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF TO THE NE BY LATE AFTERNOON (PER SATELLITE DATA). NO WORSE
THAN PARTY TO MOSTLY SKIES WILL RESULT. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS NEAR
60 NORTH INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LOOKS IN
GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...

TONIGHT: CHILLY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...PARTICULARLY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF
ADDITIONAL CIRRUS DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER NM THIS MORNING. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S. PATCHY FROST WILL CONSEQUENTLY BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN
RURAL PIEDMONT LOCATIONS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT: A PAIR OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
NM AND SOUTH TX THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND FORM A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GOM AND THE FL
PENINSULA...AND WHILE THERE REMAINS LARGER THAN AVERAGE MODEL SPREAD
FOR A 36-48 HR FORECAST...THE OVERALL TREND IN NWP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
TOWARD A STRONGER...AND CLOUDIER/WETTER FOR CENTRAL NC...SOLUTION.
INDEED...IT NOW APPEARS THAT CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS EARLY FRI WILL
PROGRESSIVELY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SUCH THAT A
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RESULT ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
BEFORE SUNSET FRI. THE RAIN...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW...WILL THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF
THE REST OF CENTRAL NC FRI NIGHT. WHILE LIKELY POPS ARE NOW
WARRANTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL NC...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR WEST/INTO THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT THE RAIN SHIELD WILL EVOLVE/EXPAND...SO ONLY
SMALL/SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE INDICATED THERE WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. THE CLOUDIER/WETTER FORECAST WILL ALSO BE A COOLER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ONE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60. LOWS 45-50.  -MWS

SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY...
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION... MORE FAVORED OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN. GFS RUNS ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA... HOWEVER THIS SOLUTION IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE
VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW... AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC LIFT WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. WITH CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW... EXPECT HIGHS BELOW NORMAL... IN THE LOWER 60S.
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S... WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
EXITING TO THE EAST.  -SEC

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 309 AM THURSDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY... AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM... WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
ON MONDAY... BEFORE ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... BRINGING A TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL CAP AT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AS THE NW FLOW SHOULD NOT
SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD... AHEAD OF
AN AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE LOW 70S ON MONDAY TO MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY... WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM THURSDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG/POLAR HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE SOUTH FROM NEW
ENGLAND AND RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR/VFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL YIELD TO BOTH INCREASING CIRRUS IN SW FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE WEST...AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT STRATOCUMULUS
BETWEEN 2500-4000 FT MAINLY AT EASTERN TERMINALS FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND OVER CENTRAL NC...STRONGEST AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY INTO THE UPPER TEENS KTS AT EASTERN TERMINALS...
ALSO FROM MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND LINGER OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM
MAY RESULT IN RAIN AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KFAY/KRWI/KRDU FRI
NIGHT-SAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS OVER CENTRAL NC...HOWEVER.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING:

      THU 04/17

       LOW/YEAR
FAY:   31/1953
GSO:   29/1953
RDU:   29/1962

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...MWS/SEC
LONG TERM...SEC
AVIATION...MWS
CLIMATE...MWS



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