Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 260927
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
227 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES TODAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
ACROSS NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. A GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
MONSOON MOISTURE TO BEGIN STREAMING BACK NORTHWARD FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH CLOUDS INCREASING LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUD COVER RATHER EXTENSIVE BY LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES STEADYING OUT
OR POSSIBLE LOWERING A DEGREE OR TWO OVER TODAY, PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. INSTABILITY AS A RESULT IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE SUNDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE FORECAST MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA. LIGHTNING
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW END ISOLATED IF IT DOES OCCUR.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUITY
WITH SHORTWAVE FEATURE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. AGAIN,
CLOUD COVER WILL BE RATHER EXTENSIVE AND LIMIT INSTABILITY AS
PWAT APPROACHES AN INCH. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING A MODEST
AMOUNT OF FORCING AND ATTENDANT QPF ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA. IT
COULD BE MORE OF A STRATIFORM EVENT WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP SATURATED LAYER ABOVE 600
MB. WE BUMPED UP THE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
FROM RENO SOUTHWARD. THE 00Z GFS MAINTAINS THIS SIGNATURE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT AND SO A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION WAS
ADDED INTO EARLY TUESDAY. HOHMANN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA AS MOISTURE GETS DRAWN UP FROM THE
SOUTH. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND POTENTIAL
FOR NEW FIRE STARTS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS.

INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE FOR THE SIERRA FRONT FROM MONO COUNTY INTO
NORTHEASTERN CA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEK. LIFTED INDICES
PEAK OUT AROUND -3 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH MODIFIED
TOTALS AROUND 35. THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST ISOLATED. FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDER IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THESE
STRONG CONVECTIVE INDICES. PRECIPITABLE WATER ACTUALLY DROPS OFF
AFTER TUESDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS.
ALTHOUGH, SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ALSO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS WELL. THURSDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING DAY TO WATCH FOR, AS A WEAK
JET MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN NEVADA AND COULD POSSIBLY
STRENGTHENING THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG THE SIERRA
CREST SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE, BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES UNTIL
SUNDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








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