Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 300948
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
248 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A SLOWLY EVOLVING PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS THIS WEEK ACROSS MANY
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 POSSIBLE FOR
SIERRA NEVADA VALLEYS. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL BE IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA. THIS INCLUDES AREAS SUCH AS
LOVELOCK AND FALLON WHERE MAX TEMPERATURES COULD EXCEED 105
DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS SUCH, A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR WEST CENTRAL NEVADA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY MILD WITH RENO
HAVING ALREADY SET ITS ALL-TIME RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE FOR
THE MONTH OF JUNE ON THE 27TH AND 29TH OF THIS MONTH IN WHICH THE
LOW ONLY FELL TO 70 DEGREES. THIS TOPPED OUR OLD RECORD OF 68
DEGREES LAST SET IN 2013.

THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ALLOW MOISTURE TO FILTER
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS A RESULT WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL EXISTING THROUGH THE SIERRA. THE MORE FAVORED REGION
WITH THE BETTER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MONO INTO ALPINE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD WITH STEERING LAYER FLOW NEAR 20 KTS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE A STILL CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS TODAY AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME CONSIDERABLE DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. THERE IS A BIT OF A DCAPE
GRADIENT WITH ABOUT 800-1000 J/KG EXISTING SOUTH OF HWY 50 AND
1000-1200 J/KG NORTH OF HWY 50. AS SUCH, WOULD EXPECT OUTFLOW
GUSTS MORE IN THE 30-40 MPH SOUTH OF HWY 50 AND UP TO 40-50 MPH
NORTHWARD BASED ON YESTERDAY`S TRENDS.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ACROSS THE SIERRA BUT
THE BETTER POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAHOE BASIN.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE A BIT SLOWER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED THROUGH THE SIERRA ON THURSDAY AND HAVE
TRENDED CHANCES UPWARD FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL PLUMAS COUNTY. STEERING FLOW WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST SO INITIAL FORMATION ALONG THE CREST SHOULD TRACK ALONG
MAINLY TO THE WEST SLOPES. OUTFLOW GUSTS SHOULD BE LESS OF A
THREAT BY THURSDAY ESPECIALLY THROUGH MONO AND ALPINE COUNTY WITH
THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEVADA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE WEEKEND FROM THE VERY HOT READINGS MID WEEK AND BACK INTO
THE 90S FOR WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW-MID 80S FOR THE SIERRA. THE
COOLING, AT LEAST INITIALLY, WILL BE MORE DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE FUELING THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LATE
AFTERNOON ZEPHYR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE BIGGEST
DAYS APPEARING TO BE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE
AS PW RISES TO NEAR 1 INCH. WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY OVER THE WASHINGTON FIRE
BURN SCAR. SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MOISTURE REMAINS BUT THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A SLOW DRYING TREND. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE DRYING
WITH A MORE SW FLOW WHILE THE EC KEEPS THE RIDGE CLOSER AND A MORE
SOUTH FLOW. LEANING TOWARD THE EC AS IT IS MORE SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLES. HEIGHTS ALSO LOWER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK SO TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THE SLOW COOL DOWN. WALLMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LCL MVFR VIS IN TSRA NEAR/SOUTH OF I-80 TODAY.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED ARE KMMH-KTVL-KCXP WITH A 20-30
PCT CHANCE WHILE KTRK/KRNO ARE CLOSER TO 15 PCT. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
TO 40 KTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SW WINDS GUSTS TO
20 KTS NORTH OF I-80 20-03Z TODAY OTHERWISE WINDS ARE LIGHT EXCEPT
NEAR TSTMS.

A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEFORE STORMS EXPAND NORTH
TO THE OREGON BORDER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WALLMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY NVZ004.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)



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