Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 220954
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
254 AM PDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Mild afternoons are expected through the weekend under increasing
southwest flow aloft. Southwest breezes will increase into Sunday
as low pressure strengthens off the Pacific Northwest coast.
Breezy and cooler weather is on tap for early next week with a
chance for showers, mainly over northeast California. Better
chances for rain and high elevation snow areawide are expected
late next week.
Made a few adjustments to delay the chance of rain for Northeast
CA Monday, but until then limited, if any adjustments. Low
pressure will deepen off the West Coast this weekend with
southwest flow increasing aloft. Southwest winds will be locally
breezy today and be a bit stronger Sunday. Peak gusts today will
be near 30 mph and near 40 mph Sunday, strongest near and north of
Highway 50. Temperatures will also remain a few degrees above
Monday into Monday night, the trough noses toward the coast with
the initial short wave moving into Oregon. Moisture will be on the
increase north of I-80, but the forcing will be limited as the
wave moves into Oregon. I delayed the showers moving in until the
afternoon with a better chance overnight. That said, as the best
forcing is north into Oregon, the amounts will be light with up to
a 1/4" of rain. Snow levels will be high and above 7000 feet.
Further south, low level moisture will be limited so we expect
mainly increased cloud cover with the breezy winds continuing for
.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...
A few showers will remain in the northern Sierra on Tuesday, then
diminishing by Wednesday as the ridge builds back over the Great
Basin. Another trough will move towards the CA Coast Tue/Wed,
bringing a increased southerly flow aloft. Mild temperatures are
expected with increased cloud cover and moderate mixing.
By Thursday, the next low pressure system will be moving into
central/northern CA, bringing up subtropical moisture as it swings
inland. The latest 00z GFS has come in much drier for the end of
next week, although this is a big shift from what we`ve been seeing
over the last 48 hours. The 00z GFS Ensembles are also a mess with
this late week system, showing a myriad of possibilities. The 00z
ECMWF continues to bring a good push of precipitation into the
region Thursday night into Friday. We`ve maintained the ongoing
forecast, with only minor adjustments to the PoP. If the low
pressure gets sheared/split out like the latest GFS suggests, we
could get significantly less precipitation. Either way, snow levels
should remain around 8500-9500 feet with the subtropical nature of
the moisture, meaning that any winter impacts would be mostly
limited to only the highest elevations through Saturday. Lastly, all
models are in good agreement so far with another potentially colder
low pressure system to move into the region late next weekend
possibly as early as next Sunday. Hoon
Generally VFR conditions expected through the weekend. Winds will
increase each day over the weekend with wind gusts to 35 kts
possible by Sunday for Sierra and far western Nevada terminals.
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