Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 222108
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Any remaining light showers will be pushed east and north exiting
the eastern Ozarks between 03Z-06Z tonight as a drier airmass
advects into the area this evening on west to southwest winds.
This will scour out the persistent low clouds we have seen and
bring some clearing to the region through the evening hours from
west to east.

Upper level low pressure will then continue to rotate across the
Corn Belt region on Tuesday. Short wave energy will dig down the
western size of that low and into the southern Plains by late in
the day. Low level frontogenesis from eastern Texas into
southeastern Missouri will keep at least a minimal threat for
showers going across far south-central Missouri. Otherwise, it
looks like a dry day with at least some sunshine (especially north
of I-44). We went with a model consensus for temperature but may
be too cool in some areas if more sunshine materializes.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

That upper level low will then open up Tuesday night resulting in
a rather sharp upper level trough extending from the western
Great Lakes into northern Mexico. As that trough slowly moves
east, enough lift and moisture will be available for a shield of
light precipitation to develop from eastern Kansas into northern
Oklahoma late Tuesday evening...then tracking into western
Missouri overnight. The top down precipitation approach indicates
that this would be all snow.

This band of light snow will then slowly move east across the
Missouri Ozarks on Wednesday before ending from west to east in
the afternoon and early evening. For the most part, this snow will
be very light in nature. There is some evidence that a slightly
heavier band could set up across western Missouri Wednesday
morning. Even if this happens, impacts would be minimal as
temperatures at the surface will be above freezing (mid to perhaps
upper 30s). Overall, we are looking at the potential for a slushy
dusting on grassy surfaces. The snowfall will quickly melt once
the snowfall ends.

Christmas then looks mild and breezy as southerly winds increase
ahead of a developing low pressure across the central High
Plains. Many areas across western and southern Missouri should hit
the 50 degree mark with middle 50s quite possible along the I-49
corridor.

Global models then continue to struggle with the extended
period. The general consensus is for an upper level trough to
emerge across the Central United States by this weekend. The ECMWF
and GEM are more amplified with the trough while the GFS is
weaker. If the ECMWF/GEM solution pans out, we may see low
pressure development in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday as
stronger short wave energy cuts east across northern Texas. If
this were to occur, some snow would be possible across south-
central Missouri as that low pressure swings northeast Saturday
night. Confidence in this occurring is low at this point...but
noteworthy for those traveling after Christmas.

Early next week then looks dry at this point with a west-southwest
flow aloft. This should result in temperatures being near or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

An area of low pressure will push across the region later this
afternoon. As this occurs surface winds will swing around to a more
westerly direction and begin to advect drier air into the region for
this evening. Until then expect periodic rain showers at the
terminals along with IFR ceilings. These ceilings will lift into the
MVFR category late this afternoon with improving conditions through
the evening hours into the VFR flight category. There could be a
period of clear skies later this evening before mid level moisture
increases late tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Raberding




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