Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 292039
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
339 PM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

...Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible
overnight...

A cold front is currently located across the Texas Panhandle and
is forecast to slowly make progress south this afternoon and
tonight. As the front approaches, the combination of an unstable
environment and an upper level disturbance will aid in the
development of showers and thunderstorms. High resolution models,
including the HRRR/Texas Tech WRF develop convection initially
across the Big Country before midnight, then moving into the
Concho Valley/Heartland in the 2 AM to 4 AM time range. Although
large hail cannot be ruled out, the main threats look to be
damaging winds and heavy rainfall. A Flash Flood watch is in
effect for all of West Central Texas from 10 PM tonight through 1
PM Saturday as soils remain saturated across the area and flash
flood guidance remains low. Rainfall totals of one half to one
inch will be common across the region, with isolated higher
amounts possible. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of West
Central Texas Saturday, especially across the southern half of
the area, as the aforementioned front remains in the region. The
front will eventually move south of the area Saturday afternoon,
with rain chances decreasing from north to south. Highs on
Saturday will be dependent on the extent of cloud
cover/convection. The current forecast keeps highs generally in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

Yet another shortwave trough is progged to traverse the southern
Plains Saturday night. This will keep rain chances in the
forecast, primarily south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line.
Precipitable water (PWAT) values are forecast to fall to near
1.00" overnight, limiting the potential for heavy rainfall.
Temperatures are expected to fall to near 60 degrees by Sunday
morning, although lows in the 50s will be fairly widespread if
clouds are able to thin out.

Relatively low PWATs are anticipated on Sunday and forcing for
ascent will be weak, at best. That said, BUFR soundings remain
uncapped across the southern half of the CWA, warranting at least
a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms around peak
heating. Organized severe weather is unlikely given the weak
vertical shear and limited instability. We should see one more day
of temperatures slightly below normal, with highs in the lower
80s.

Heading into next week, we`ll see the effects of a shift in the
synoptic pattern. The medium range models continue to build a
ridge over the Rockies, resulting in weak north to northwest
flow aloft. The result will be generally dry conditions across
West Central TX with temperatures warming into the mid 80s to near
90 degrees each day. Overnight low temperatures will be in the
mid/upper 60s. A stray storm or two cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon hours next week, but confidence is low for both
convective initiation and coverage.

An upper-level trough is forecast to develop over the western
CONUS over the latter half of next week, bringing southwest flow
aloft back into the picture. This may bring about additional rain
chances heading into the weekend. We`ll have to wait and see for
now.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  65  78  59  80  61 /  80  60  10  10   5
San Angelo  65  80  60  82  61 /  70  60  20  20   5
Junction  69  82  61  82  62 /  50  70  40  30   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 10 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...
Coleman...Concho...Crockett...Fisher...Haskell...Irion...Jones...
Kimble...Mason...McCulloch...Menard...Nolan...Runnels...San
Saba...Schleicher...Shackelford...Sterling...Sutton...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

$$

14/25




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