Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 221700
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1200 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the next 24
hours. South winds of 12 to 18 knots, with higher gusts, will
decrease around 00z, then increase to 8 to 14 knots by mid morning
Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Low clouds have
been trying to develop and move northwestward into the KJCT/KBBD
area early this morning, but have just not been able to make
progress this morning. So, will only show a SCT group at MVFR
heights for the southern terminals this morning. As temperatures
quickly warm up, these clouds will also quickly mix out, should
any isolated SCT or BKN CIGs develop across the TAF forecast
area. Winds will again be gusty today, with sustained south winds
at around 15 knots with gusts to between 20 and 25 knots. South
winds will diminish after sunset tonight, and skies should remain
largely clear aside from a few upper level clouds. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Warm and humid weather will continue through tonight. An area of
upper level high pressure remains centered generally over
Louisiana. This ridge will remain in place through Saturday
morning. As a result, we will continue to see flow out of the
south to southeast through the upper levels across our region.
Thus, the ridge will keep a good feed of Gulf of Mexico moisture
into the area, while also suppressing rain chances. The higher
terrain of west Texas will likely again see scattered showers and
thunderstorms. While the western tip of Crockett County could see
an isolated shower or thunderstorm by late afternoon or early
evening, the ridge should keep most of this activity west, so have
kept the forecast dry. Expect another day of highs in the mid to
upper 90s, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

20

LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Thursday/
An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather
across West Central Texas through early next week. As a result, a
hot and dry forecast is in store across the area. Highs will be
mainly 95 to 100 with lows in the 70s. Medium range models are
indicating a possible slight change in the upper level flow pattern
for middle to late next week. an upper level trough will move into
the central CONUS, which suppresses 50H heights across the Southern
Plains. Also, a cool front/wind shift will probably move south into
the Big Country by next Wednesday or Thursday. The GFS model is
mainly dry and the ECWMF model is wetter for late next week. Will
keep the forecast dry for now, but slight chance POPS will probably
have to be inserted into the extended forecast during the next
couple of days.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  96  73  97  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  71  96  72  97  73 /   0   5   5   5   5
Junction  71  94  71  95  72 /   0   0   5   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

Daniels





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