Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 010006 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
706 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening will affect
the area from San Angelo into our southeastern counties. This
is affecting the KSJT terminal at the initial part of this
TAF period. For tonight, isolated to scattered showers are
possible in West Central Texas, and carrying VCSH groups at
the TAF sites. Other convection could develop overnight and
during the day Wednesday, but in placement precludes more than
an inclusion of VCTS at this time. Outside of showers/
thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected early tonight.
Low cloud development is expected late tonight with MVFR
ceilings. On Wednesday, ceilings should climb above 3000ft
by late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

..Heavy rainfall will be possible through the next 24 hours...

An upper level low is centered across the northern Mexican state of
Sonora/southern Arizona late this afternoon. Intermittent upper
level disturbances will continue to move across West Central Texas
in the southwest flow aloft. One such disturbance is resulting in
showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the forecast
area. A few of these storms may become strong to severe, although
locally heavy rainfall is the main concern with this activity. This
activity will continue to slowly shift east this afternoon/evening.
The next feature of interest is an outflow boundary that is slowly
moving south across the Big Country. Showers and thunderstorms have
started to develop in the vicinity of this boundary as a very
unstable atmosphere resides ahead of it. This may serve as a focus
for additional shower and thunderstorm activity late this afternoon
and into the evening across a large portion of the forecast area.

On Wednesday, the aforementioned upper level low will continue to
slowly approach West Central Texas resulting in large scale lift. In
addition, a cold front is forecast to slowly move through the area,
which may serve as a focus for additional showers and thunderstorms.
Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 7AM Thursday for all of
West Central Texas due to the expected heavy rainfall. Rainfall
totals through the next 24 hours will generally range from 1 to 2
inches, with isolated amounts over 3 inches possible.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Upper level low will continue to move only slowly to the east,
reaching West Central Texas on Thursday and staying somewhere
across Central Texas into Saturday. High precipitation chances
will continue, although the brunt of the heavy rain will fall
before THursday morning or perhaps linger in the eastern counties
through Thursday afternoon. Will keep high POPs in place, as well
as cooler temperatures. Will begin to diminish rain chances over
the weekend, although with the upper level low remaining in nearby
proximity, will need to keep some mention of showers and storms
in the forecast.

Given the cloud cover and the weak frontal boundary that will
remain draped across the area, temperatures will remain in the 70s
and lower 80s into the weekend as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  64  78  64  76 /  70  70  60  60
San Angelo  66  81  63  76 /  70  80  60  50
Junction  68  82  64  77 /  70  80  70  70

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Brown-Callahan-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-
Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-
Shackelford-Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

$$



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