Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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972
FXUS64 KSJT 161801 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1201 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Conditions will deterioriate this afternoon and evening, as
rain develops and expands across much of west central Texas.
Ceilings will drop to MVFR during the afternoon and evening,
with IFR conditions expected for much of tonight at our
southern terminals. Rain will end tonight with clearing
skies and a return to VFR conditions overnight into
Sunday morning. Winds will be from the south this afternoon
and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will remain in place until around 17Z before
conditions deteriorate as a storm system brings in a broad area of
rain. Rain is expected for KSOA, KBBD, and KJCT with MVFR
conditions by around 17Z. Then IFR conditions move in around 0Z or
so with little improvement exPected by the end of the TAF period
for those three terminals. For KSJT and KABI, MVFR conditions is
the worst expected, but then, those two terminals may clear to VFR
by around 7Z or so on Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CST Sat Dec 16 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

.Possible Rain...

The potential for rain, mainly this afternoon and evening,
continues to be the high-light of the short-term forecast. The
upper low, which water vapor imagery indicates is currently over
northwest Mexico - just east of south Baja California - will
continue to move toward the Big Bend region this morning. Models,
including the NAM, indicate the best timing for rain will be from
around noon, CST today, through midnight tonight. Plus, the best
rain potential will be across our southeastern counties this
afternoon and our eastern counties this evening. After midnight
tonight, models indicate rain will be east and southeast of our
counties.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

.Additional Rain Possible...

Another upper low will move into a favorable position, during the
Monday and Tuesday periods, to perhaps bring additional rain to
West Central Texas. This wet solution is new, as previous model
runs indicated dry conditions this next work week. So, the Monday
through Tuesday night periods now include the potential for rain,
with the best rain chances confined to Tuesday; that`s when
models move the upper trough axis, from west to east, over our
counties. The next potential rain event begins on Friday, as
another cold front and upper storm system move into the region.
Given Friday is day 7, confidence not real high regarding timing
and position of this system; thus, 20 to 30 PoPs look to be best
for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  41  65  41  62 /  30   0   5  10
San Angelo  41  68  42  65 /  20   0   5  10
Junction  39  68  44  64 /  30   5  10  20
Brownwood  41  67  43  63 /  50   5   5  10
Sweetwater  41  64  40  61 /  20   0   5   5
Ozona       39  64  41  63 /  20   0   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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