Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 051031
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
430 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013
Today through Friday
Through noon Friday, we`re expecting a combination of sleet and
freezing rain across West Central Texas. Models this cycle continue
to indicate the best chance for this wintry precipitation will be
overnight tonight. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will continue to
push south across Texas today. Very cold air moving into our area
will result in falling temperatures across most of West Central
Texas today. Model forecast soundings continue to indicate a warm
layer, centered around 750 mb, will persist through noon tomorrow
across most of West Central Texas. The cold, nearly-saturated, layer
just below this warm layer will remain below freezing overnight
tonight across all of West central Texas. Thus, we continue to
expect the main precipitation modes will be freezing rain or sleet
tonight. In addition, the greatest accumulations of ice or sleet
will be mainly across the big country, along and north of Interstate
20. Nevertheless, total accumulations of one quarter inch remain
possible for Brown, Coleman, and Runnels counties; so, we`ll
continue these counties in our Winter Storm Warning, beginning for
them at 6 pm CST this evening. Also, I continue to be concerned with
very cold and dangerous wind chill tonight, especially across the
Big Country where the wind chill after midnight tonight will likely
drop to near the zero mark.
Friday night through Saturday night
Models this cycle end precipitation across West Central Texas around
noon tomorrow. However, low-level moisture continues well into
Saturday night, when another passing upper trough may provide lift
to produce either freezing drizzle or light freezing rain Saturday
and Saturday night. What`s more, the wind chill overnight Friday
night will be even colder than tonight, especially across the Big
Country, Concho Valley, and much of the Heartland.
Sunday through Wednesday
With most of my focus on the short term, I didn`t spend much time on
the long term. Dry conditions and a very-slow-to-warm forecast looks
good through the middle of next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 31 20 25 11 20 / 60 80 30 10 10
San Angelo 42 24 31 19 29 / 50 80 20 10 10
Junction 52 26 33 25 36 / 40 80 30 10 10
WINTER STORM WARNING from Noon today to Noon CST Friday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Callahan...Fisher...Haskell...Jones...Nolan...
WINTER STORM WARNING from 6 PM this evening to Noon CST Friday
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Coleman...Runnels.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to Noon CST
Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coke...Concho...Crockett...