Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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411
FXUS64 KSJT 250449
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1149 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR expected the next 24 hours. Some scattered stratus may
develop across the southern terminals by daybreak but will
dissipate by mid morning. Light winds overnight will become south
at 10 to 15 KT on Thursday, diminishing to less than 10 KT by
early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1005 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Removed slight chances of showers and thunderstorms in western
counties.

DISCUSSION...
Convection is farther west this evening than yesterday, and
latest HRRR model algorithm does not indicate precipitation tonight.
Thus will remove slight chances of storms in Crockett county and
western sections of the Concho Valley and Big Country.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. The only aviation
concern through the period will be some stratus at the southern
terminals during the early morning hours. The stratus should not
be as widespread as the past few days and will only mention a
scattered group at this time. Expect light southeast winds
overnight, becoming south at 10 to 15 KT on Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Currently, west central Texas remains in an area of moderate
southwest flow in the mid/upper levels, with subsidence from a
dominant southeastern U. S. ridge moving in from the east. Just
west of our area, we have scattered thunderstorms developing
across the Big Bend/Davis Mountains area, moving northeast into
the Stockton Plateau. This thunderstorm activity is expected to
continue developing and expand in number and areal coverage this
evening. However, think that most of this activity will struggle
to make it farther east than a Haskell, to Sweetwater, to Ozona
line, where stronger capping exists. Short-range models agree, and
show convection only brushing along our western border this
evening. So, have kept just the slight chance PoPs along our
western border from Crockett County northeast into Haskell County.
Expect continued muggy overnight conditions tonight with lows in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For Thursday, we are expecting similar conditions with
temperatures warming into the upper 80s to mid 90s, and another
mainly dry day across the forecast area, with models even more
pessimistic about our rain chances tomorrow.

20

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)

Friday, an upper level ridge will be centered across the Tennessee
River Valley with an upper level low off the Texas coast. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday, although most
locations look to remain dry at this time. Expect high temperatures
to remain near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s. Overnight
lows will mainly be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

As we head into the weekend and early next week, the aforementioned
upper level ridge will drift east, toward the South Atlantic Coast,
while the upper level low off the Texas coast drifts toward South
Texas. The proximity of the upper level low in addition to an
increase in low level moisture will result in isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day. The convection is forecast to be
diurnally driven, with most activity dissipating by mid evening.
Expect highs to mainly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with a few
locations approaching the mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures will
mainly be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  71  93  70  92 /   5   5  10  20
San Angelo  71  94  69  93 /   5   5  10  10
Junction  70  92  70  91 /   0   5   5  10
Brownwood  70  92  71  91 /   0   5   5  30
Sweetwater  70  92  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
Ozona       70  91  69  89 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/24



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