Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 250438 AAC
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours across
West Central Texas. South to southeast winds will be light
through early Friday morning, and 5-10 KT from late morning through
early evening. A scattered cumulus field is expected to develop
by early afternoon across east-central and southern sections of
the area.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Zone forecast product was updated to take out mention of isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon preperiod (period before 7 PM). No
other changes.

04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Expect VFR conditions to persist throughout the forecast period.
Some light showers may develop this evening though confidence is too
low to include in the TAF package. Precip chances will diminish
after sunset. Likewise, mid level cloud cover will also diminish as
day time heating ends. Otherwise, look for winds to veer to the
south through the overnight hours, but remain light.

18

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

Deep easterly flow will continue across the area through Friday as
we remain on the south side of an upper level east/west oriented
ridge. The ridge is centered across New Mexico, the Texas
panhandle, into Oklahoma. This will continue our relatively warm
and humid forecast. A few showers have been trying to develop
along and just south of Interstate 10 this afternoon, but have not
been able to sustain themselves. So, we will keep the forecast dry
overnight, while keeping the mention of showers/storms through the
early evening.

Temperatures today have reached the mid to upper 90s, and without
much change in the pattern have gone with a similar forecast for
tomorrow, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Generally, warmer
temperatures are expected the farther north you move across the
forecast area since the ridge is centered just north of the CWA.

20

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)

Not much change to the ongoing forecast for West Central Texas.
Large ridge of high pressure aloft will dominate the southern
plains through the weekend, bringing hot and dry conditions to West
Central Texas. Highs right around 100 each afternoon, lows in the
low to mid 70s each morning. Fairly prototypical weather for this
time of year.

Models are continuing the idea of a potent low pressure system
dropping into the Great Lakes states for next week, pushing the
upper level ridge off to the west into New Mexico and Arizona.
This places the southern plains into northwest flow aloft,
generally a wetter pattern for the area. Much like the last
northwest flow event a little over a week ago, the main storm
track looks to be just off to the northeast. However, also like
last time, will assume that outflow boundaries and eventually a
cold front will drop into at least the I-20 corridor and help
scattered convection develop. Will let the ongoing PoP forecast
ride for now. Best chance of rain may actually be with a well
developed shortwave on Thursday, but given the range we are
talking about right now, think the slight chance we have in the
forecast should be sufficient for now.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  99  75  99  74 /   5   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  71  99  73 100  73 /   5   5   5   0   0
Junction  70  98  73  98  71 /   5   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$












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