Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 112048

347 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

(Tonight and Saturday)

A TUTT Low and is located near the Coahuila/Chihuahua Provincial
borders in northern Mexico this afternoon, with an inverted upper
trough extending north across the TX Big Bend region. This feature
will continue to move west this afternoon and tonight. A moisture
axis extends north into West Central Texas, where isolated to
scattered light showers have occurred. With further decrease in
cloud cover and heating/destabilization through late afternoon, a
few thunderstorms are expected to develop, mainly southwest of a
line from Sterling City to Eldorado to Junction. We have 20-30 PoPs
for showers/storms through early this evening across the area
southwest of a Sweetwater to Brady line. Carrying a lingering slight
chance PoP early tonight across the southwestern part of our area.
Mostly clear skies are expected overnight and Saturday. At this
time, think overnight low cloud development will stay south of our

Our area will remain on the southern periphery of an upper level
high tonight and Saturday. With the 850 mb thermal ridge expanding
east into our area along with ample sunshine Saturday, expect high
temperatures to be several degrees warmer than today.

(Saturday night through Friday)

A weakening upper-level disturbance will continue moving northwest
away from the area as it continues to dissipate. An upper-level
ridge centered over the Central Plains will build south into the
area, especially northern and eastern sections of the area for
Sunday and Monday. This will result in mid-level heights rising some,
with a corresponding increase in afternoon highs, especially north
of Interstate 20 where soil moisture is lower compared to areas
further south. We generally went in the middle range of guidance for
this period, with highs ranging from the lower 90s near Interstate
10, to the upper 90s across northern areas, where a few locations
may top the century mark.

For Monday and beyond, the models have come into better agreement
with the frontal passage timing through our area. They continue to
show a strong system developing over the Great Lakes, sending a cold
front south across the area, with the general consensus placing the
front just north of our northern counties by 00z Tuesday. This front
will sag slowly south through mid-week, likely aided by convective
outflow, with the front washing out by Thursday or Friday. During
this process, moisture will be abundant south of the front, with
progged PWATs in the 1.75 to 2 inch range. Additionally, 0-6km shear
is modest at best, so slow moving thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall is possible. With good upslope flow and good convergence
along the front, we`ve trended faster with the frontal positioning
for Monday evening. As such, thunderstorms have been added to
northern parts of the area. The front will linger across the area,
continuing our chance of thunderstorms through the end of the work


Abilene  72  96  71  96  72 /   5   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  70  95  70  96  71 /  10   5   5   5   5
Junction  69  94  71  94  71 /  10   5   5   5   5




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