Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS64 KSJT 252043
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
343 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Monday)

Main forecast challenge for the short term is the potential for a
mesoscale convective complex near the western counties.  Short range
models continue to show thunderstorms developing this afternoon and
evening over New Mexico as a shortwave trough dives southward across
the Panhandle. Most models keep the storms to the west of the area
before they dissipate after sunrise.  However, the Texas Tech WRF
does bring the convective complex into the western part of the
forecast area by morning.  Decided to lean a little toward the TTU
WRF and keep 20 to 40 percent precip chances across the northwest
tonight. Have also included a slight chance of thunderstorms across
the far southeast with low clouds and light rain.

For tomorrow, will continue with a chance of rain through the day as
remnant boundaries from the MCS and afternoon instability will
likely trigger showers and thunderstorms over the area. Difficult to
pinpoint exact locations for now, as boundary locations tomorrow
will be dependent on the track of the MCS tonight.  Temperatures
tomorrow will be warmer, but still below seasonal normals, with
increased cloud cover and rain showers.

.LONG TERM...
Monday Night through Sunday)

The combination of weak disturbance in the upper level northwest
flow and abundant moisture(PW values 1.5 to 2 inches) will result in
a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms early this week.
Going with mainly chance Pops through Tuesday. The threat of severe
weather is very low. The main hazards from storms will be dangerous
lightning and locally heavy rainfall. A mainly dry and warmer
forecast for the middle of this week into the weekend as upper level
high pressure ridge builds over the Southern Plains. Also, gusty
southerly winds will be possible as lee surface trough/dryline
develops to our west. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s, with
lows 70 to 75.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  68  85  67  88 /  30  40  30  20
San Angelo  69  88  69  90 /  20  40  30  30
Junction  69  87  69  88 /  20  40  30  40
Brownwood  68  85  68  87 /  20  30  30  30
Sweetwater  67  84  67  89 /  30  40  30  20
Ozona       69  87  68  89 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

08/21



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.