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000
FXUS61 KBGM 211837
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
237 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy skies will prevail today, and a few brief showers or
sprinkles are possible over parts of north-central New York
this afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather returns tonight through
Tuesday with the next storm system moving in Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
1010 AM Update...
CAMS are producing a few showers in north-central NY this
afternoon, along a weak shortwave trough. Surface dewpoint
depressions and BUFKIT soundings suggest most of this will be
virga, but a few showers or sprinkles will reach the ground, and
this has been added to the forecast. For the Southern Tier and
NEPA, dry conditions will likely prevail.

630 AM Update...

Temps remained a couple degrees warmer than forecast thanks to
thick clouds over much of the area, especially west of I-81.
Dropped todays high temps by a couple degrees given the
continued cloud deck expected to remain overhead today. It will
definitely feel pretty brisk outside this afternoon when the
winds pick up. The rest of the forecast remains on track.


0245 AM Update...

Quiet conditions over the region with some lake clouds filtering
in from the west. Temperatures have mostly fallen into the mid
to upper 30s across the area, with Elmira and Syracuse as warm
spots with temps in the low 40s. Clouds should continue to
stream off the lakes overnight, covering most of the the area
west of I-81. This should keep temps a few degrees warmer than
guidance suggests as it is not picking up on the lake clouds and
showing better chances for radiational cooling. Lows should be a
few degrees cooler than current temps, bottoming out in the 30s
for most.

Continued NW flow today will keep the cool Canadian airmass
overhead. Temperatures will be cool, with most places seeing mid
to upper 40s as highs. Warmer valleys will hit the low 50s but
with dry air and winds picking up in the afternoon, it will feel
much cooler than that. Models show very dry air in the boundary
later, with inverted V soundings across the region. This will
help transport some gusty winds down to the surface, especially
north of the Southern Tier, with sustained WNW winds 10-15mph
gusting up to 25mph. Surface moisture will be low, with
dewpoints in the mid 20s for most of the day. Had to blend in
some drier guidance from the RGEM and CONShort to get dewpoints
lower as NBM, as usual, was too moist. Another shortwave will
pass over the region during the afternoon hours, but with a lack
of moisture, precipitation is not expected. Behind the
shortwave, winds shift to more NWerly, continuing to push in the
cold airmass from Canada. With high pressure and this wind
direction, fetch across the lakes will be too low to generate
expansive cloud cover. This should allow temps to fall a few
degrees colder than Sat night, bottoming out in the upper 20s to
low 30s.

Monday will be cool but pleasant, with mostly clear skies and
light winds thanks to a high pressure center moving overhead.
Highs will top out in the low to mid 50s for most of the region.
Dewpoints again were too high in the initial NBM guidance, so
RGEM and CONShort was used, which dropped values into the upper
teens to low 20s across the region, which matched up better with
what model soundings are showing. Dry weather continues Monday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...
Main feature of note this period will be a frontal system
passing through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a
batch of rain followed by falling temperatures.

Clouds will increasing Tuesday, but will take some time for
south-southwesterly winds to bring in moisture to the lower-mid
levels, well ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence has
increased that any actual rain will hold off during the day due
to the amount of dry air in the boundary layer. With warmer
temperatures, and dewpoints likely ending up on the low side of
model guidance, we are figuring on relative humidity still
managing to dip well into the 30s percent range. This along with
winds increasing to sustained 10-20 mph may make things a little
more sensitive in terms of fire weather. That said, both wind
and humidity values will be marginal at worst; both factors not
eclipsing critical levels. Highs Tuesday will be upper 50s to
mid 60s.

Pre-frontal trough will advance into the area Tuesday night,
followed by the front itself early Wednesday, with rain. Non-
diurnal temperatures are figured for Wednesday, with models now
agreeing upon a progressive timing which will result in post-
frontal cold air advection through the day. Generally speaking
precipitation type will be all rain with this system, but on the
back side lingering showers could mix with a negligible amount
of wet snow in the higher terrain before ending fairly quickly
midday-early afternoon Wednesday. We are not expecting rain
amounts to be a problem; generally a quarter to half inch total
though a few spots roughly along the NY Thruway counties could
get slightly more than that.

After lows of 40s Tuesday night, temperatures basically go
nowhere Twin Tiers northward with highs of 40s, yet still
managing lower 50s in Wyoming Valley to Southern Catskills.
Northwesterly winds gusting into 25-35 mph range will make it
feel fairly raw Wednesday afternoon. The sky will clear out
Wednesday night, with lows of 20s-lower 30s. Indeed we will only
just be entering the final week of April, so temperatures like
that while chilly are not unusual.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM Update...
Though quiet late in the workweek, an approaching warm front is
expected to result in eventually wet conditions over the
weekend.

Dry weather is forecast as high pressure passes Thursday into
Friday. Northwest winds and cooler temperatures are still
anticipated as the high pressure builds in Thursday, followed by
a near calm and cool night with lows of mid 20s-lower 30s. We
get into return flow on the back side of the high Friday,
allowing temperatures to quickly moderate into upper 50s-lower
60s with full sunshine.

A warm frontal zone, extending from a low over the Upper
Midwest, will advance into the region Saturday. This will bring
an increasing likelihood for rain especially later Saturday into
Saturday night, though at this time it does not appear to be an
excessive amount since the front is projected to move right
along instead of stalling. We can thus expect a further boost of
temperatures during the second half of the weekend as we get
into the warm sector.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread cloud cover prevails across the region, but ceilings
are well within the VFR category, generally between 5000 and
6000 feet. Clouds will diminish after dark, with VFR prevailing
through the period.

West to northwest winds will gust close to 20 knots at times
this afternoon, though the cloud cover has delayed mixing
slightly. Lighter, variable winds will prevail overnight, with
generally light NW flow expected tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday Night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPH
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPH
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...JTC/MPH