140
FXUS65 KFGZ 190828
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
128 AM MST Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue over the weekend
with a slight cool down next week. Look for gusty afternoon winds
each day, strongest on Monday with the passing of a dry weather
disturbance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Similar to recent mornings clear skies were being
observed across Arizona during the early morning. For today, a
drying southwest flow will set up across northern Arizona as a
longwave trough develops over the western states. As a result,
look for warm daytime temperatures to continue with another round
of afternoon sustained winds in the 10 to 20 mph range gusting to
around 35 mph. It will remain dry.

On Monday and Tuesday...A stronger shortwave disturbance will
rotate through the western states longwave pattern producing even
stronger winds. Look for southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting
into the 45 to 55 mph range, especially from the Mogollon Rim
northward Monday afternoon. The main concern on Monday will be a
heightened fire weather threat as dry air and gusty winds combine
for an environment conducive to rapid fire spread. A Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for portions of northern Arizona on Monday.
Later on Monday into Tuesday there will be enough moisture
combined with dynamic lift and cooling aloft for a slight chance
of high based showers. The northern border and Four Corners could
see a stray shower. In addition, a nose of moisture will attempt
to sneak over the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains area for slight
chances for showers in those locations as well. Lighter winds are
forecast for Tuesday as the short-wave moves eastward. High
temperatures will cool some by around 5 to 10 degrees compared to
Sunday.

From Wednesday onward...A series of short-wave troughs continue
to brush northern Arizona delivering afternoon west to southwest
breezes each day and periodic slight chances for high-based
showers along the Arizona/Utah border.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 19/06Z through Monday 20/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions through the TAF period. Light winds overnight becoming
southwest 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts after 16Z Sunday. Winds
decrease again after 02Z Monday. Local visibility reductions from
wildfire smoke are possible, especially near KPAN.

OUTLOOK...Monday 20/06Z through Wednesday 22/06Z...Stronger
southwest winds 20-30 kts with gusts from 35-45 kts develop on
Monday. Winds turn west to northwest Tuesday at 10-20 kts gusting
to 25 kts. VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday..Cooler and dry conditions, with
critical fire weather conditions possible on Monday. Southwest winds
15-25 mph with gusts 25-35 mph today, increasing to 25-35 mph with
gusts 35-50 mph on Monday. Afternoon minimum RH 5-15%, with
overnight recoveries 30-60%.

Tuesday through Thursday...Continued dry conditions with near-normal
temperatures. West winds 10-20 mph on Tuesday, becoming southwest on
Wednesday. Winds increasing to 15-25 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH 5-
15% each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ107>110-112>114-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff