322
FXUS65 KFGZ 101005
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
305 AM MST Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Mild temperatures will continue through Saturday with
isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along
and north of I-40. Warmer temperatures arrive starting Sunday,
with another chance for a few showers or storms Tuesday and
Wednesday. Expect typical spring-like breezes through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure is located across the southwest US this
morning, centered over southern Utah and Nevada. Cooler
temperatures in the mid levels associated with this trough have
allowed for some cloud buildups during the afternoon even though
low level moisture is meager (dewpoints teens/20s). Virga and a
few sprinkles developed from around Flagstaff northward late
Thursday afternoon. As the low moves a bit farther toward the
southwest this afternoon, the better chances for a shower or
thunderstorm (20-30%) will be from around the Grand Canyon
northward. Otherwise, look for a nice day around the region with
relatively light winds and highs near normal. For Saturday - the
low is forecast to move back eastward and cross northern Arizona.
Instability and mid level moisture increase, and we have
introduced a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms from the
the Flagstaff region north and east, with the higher values near
the four corners. This activity will be high-based as surface
dewpoints will still be only in the 20s, meaning any shower could
produce gusty/erratic winds but not much rain.

Sunday and Monday - the low shifts well east of the state as brief
ridging develops over the region. There will still be some cloud
buildups over the mountains each afternoon, but mid level
temperatures will warm a few degrees keeping instability down and
decreasing the chance of showers to under 10%. Afternoon
temperatures will warm to around 5 degrees above normal by Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday - a weak low off the Pacific is forecast to
move eastward into the state. More mid level moisture and mid-
level cooling will lead to some isolated afternoon showers mainly
over high terrain. Again these should be high-based with little
in the way of rainfall but still producing some gusty winds.
Beyond Wednesday, model spread increases but the overall trend
looks like high pressure building over the western US.


&&

.AVIATION...Friday 10/06Z through Saturday 11/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. SCT-BKN CIGS AOA 9kft AGL will redevelop AFT 18Z Friday.
Cloud development will be mainly north of a KPRC-KRQE line. ISOLD
-SHRA/-TSRA possible north of the KGCN terminal. Some FU producing
VIS from 2-4SM possible near the KSEZ and KFLG terminals through the
period. Sfc winds light and variable overnight, with some NE
drainage winds just SW of higher terrain and at terminal KSEZ.
Otherwise, S-SW5-15kts 18Z Friday-02Z Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 11/06Z through Monday 13/06Z...Expect mostly VFR
conditions. Afternoon SCT-BKN CIGS AOA 8kft AGL, ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA
possible, mainly north of a KFLG-KRQE line. Areas VIS 2-4SM with FU
near prescribed burns. Sfc winds light and variable in the overnight
and early morning hours, westerly 5-15kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Look for below normal
temperatures each afternoon, with isolated showers/storms mostly
along and north of I-40. Winds overnight should generally be light,
but localized breezes are possible. Expect south-southwest winds 10-
20 mph today, becoming west winds 10-25 mph on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures will warm to a few degrees
above normal through the beginning of the week. Afternoon
precipitation chances are low each afternoon, but not zero. Look for
west-northwest winds 10-20 mph on Sunday, becoming west winds around
5-15 mph Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff