303
FXUS63 KICT 131118
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
618 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/isolated storm chances lingering through tonight.

- Chance for storms Tuesday night through Thursday night.

- Trending warmer for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Currently a shortwave trough is translating across the Plains while
upper ridging is noted over the western CONUS and Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys. Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to
linger across the area today. A few storms late afternoon may
be strong with pea to dime sized hail possible across southeast
KS where 20kts of shear will combine with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
during peak heating.

Late evening and tonight, showers will come to end across the area
as the shortwave trough axis moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Brief shortwave ridging will move overhead tomorrow bringing quiet
weather and temps the mid to upper 70s for the daytime. By tomorrow
night, a compact subtle shortwave/500mb vort max will move ahead of
the next main trough bringing the potential to see an elevated
storm or two develop and/or move in from NW KS.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, there is a conditional
chance for severe storms developing along a cold front
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Mid 60s dewpoints are expected to
surge northward into the area ahead of the next trough to move
across the region, with 40 to 50 kts of bulk shear, steep
midlevel lapse rates, and MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg possible.
Surface convergence looks to be pretty minimal.

The long range forecast remains quite uncertain with models
differing widely after Thursday. Cluster analysis shows some of the
biggest differences for the weekend period are the degree of ridging
off the Pacific NW, and wavelength and amplitude of the trough
over south central Canada and the northern Plains. Therefore,
confidence in the forecast including temps in the upper 80s (and
even low 90s in SC SK) are of low confidence at this time. Will
remain with NBM for now, but even the 25-75th % range of NBM
MaxT differs by at least 10 degrees. Expect adjustments to the
these periods in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

MVFR and IFR CIGs along with some shower activity will dominate
the first few hours of the TAF. After about 15Z, the shower
activity will abate for awhile until around 20Z. At this time,
confidence is not high enough to put a TEMPO or a predominate
group for SHRA/TSRA, thus the PROB30s. The SHRA/TSRA will be
scattered or more "hit or miss" thunderstorm activity. This
threat will continue through about 00Z tonight. After that time,
the SHRA/TSRA threat will come to an end and slow clearing is
expected. By end of this TAF period, VFR conditions are expected
for all terminals.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...ELM