Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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353 FXUS63 KICT 052339 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 639 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Higher-end severe weather potential Monday afternoon-evening. - Overall fairly quiet weather expected after Monday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Areas of light to at times moderate rain will persist over southeast Kansas through early evening, as a shortwave trough traverses the Southern Plains. Additional rainfall amounts should remain fairly light, generally under one-tenth to one-quarter inch. For tonight, strengthening deep moisture advection should support patchy to areas of drizzle developing after midnight, and persisting through at least Monday morning areawide. Additionally, patchy to areas of fog (possibly dense fog) may develop this evening generally along and east of the Flint Hills corridor, and persist into Monday morning. This is due to clearing skies amidst a wet ground and low dewpoint depressions. The evening shift may need to watch for a dense fog advisory. Our attention then turns to the potential for scattered to numerous thunderstorms Monday afternoon-evening across the region, as a potent/deep shortwave trough and attendant dryline approach from the west, amidst an increasingly moist/unstable airmass across the Central and Southern Plains. The anomalous combination of buoyancy/shear (as highlighted by the NAEFS and EPS) favors severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce "higher-end" severe weather in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which could be strong (especially over southern KS). Model trends continue to support the greatest threat for discrete supercells (and associated greater threat for higher-end severe weather) across mainly southern KS, and south through OK, where mid- upper flow is oriented more perpendicular to the dryline, large scale forcing isn`t quite as strong, and destabilization will be greatest. A handful of model point forecast soundings up and down the dryline from southern KS south into OK continue to indicate a potential kinematic and thermodynamic environment similar to some past higher-end and even historic severe weather and tornado events. This tornado threat will likely be highest generally along/south of Highway 54/400 across south-central and southeast KS and points south from late afternoon through the evening, as low-level shear/SRH increases in response to a strengthening low-level jet, amidst low clouds bases and high amounts of low-level buoyancy. It is during this time a few strong, long-track tornadoes are possible. Further north (roughly north of Highway 54/400), storm mode should be rather messy given stronger forcing, and a more meridional component to mid-upper flow, which should tend to limit higher-end severe potential here, although embedded supercell and/or QLCS structures should still lend to a hail threat up to 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. A another piece of uncertainty in the forecast surrounds the extent of warm/moist sector low clouds throughout the day, owing to rapid low-level quality moisture return. We will likely be locked in with low clouds and drizzle through at least early afternoon across much of the KS warm sector, limiting insolation and associated destabilization, especially with northward extent. However, model consensus does indicate sufficient heating/destabilization by late afternoon and early evening, especially over south-central KS and points south, enhancing the severe weather environment with southward extent. All-in-all, there remains potential for higher-end severe weather across the region Monday afternoon-night in the form of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, some of which could be strong, especially from roughly Highway 54/400 on south. We will continue to diagnose the above uncertainty and issue timely forecast updates. After Monday night, the large-scale synoptic pattern favors mostly quiet and dry weather across the Kansas region through at least the end of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 - IFR and possible LIFR CIGs/VSBY tonight - Conditional probability of high impact thunderstorms tomorrow MVFR and IFR conditions will be prominent tonight with KHUT, KICT and KCNU the most likely terminals to see the lower CIGs and VSBY. This is likely to be the worst between 08Z and 14Z tomorrow. Do not expected the CIGs to improve that much and will likely remain MVFR for much of the day for most of the area. KRSL and KGBD are the most likely terminals to see some significant clearing ahead of the next weather system. This next weather system is likely to kick off a line of thunderstorm activity that will move from west to east. This activity could be severe but timing, intensity and location is still in question at the moment. As such, only went PROB30 at this time but if thunder does occur, chances are good it will be strong to severe. This thunderstorm activity is expected to move east of KICT by 02Z tomorrow evening. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADK AVIATION...ELM