Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 281540
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1040 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014
Cold front has moved through ILX this morning, with cooler air
filtering into the region with northwesterly winds taking over the
behind the boundary. Temps not expecting too much of a climb in
the NW, but a few degrees still possible as the skies clear and
sunshine dominates the remainder of the afternoon. Precip has
moved out to the SE and have pulled the pop mention through the
rest for the day. Gusty winds expected with an increasing pressure
gradient behind the boundary and some 20-25kt winds at 3-4kft on
VWP. New zones out momentarily.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Line of showers and isolated thunderstorms, along and just ahead of
the cold front just east of I-55 will continue to move east through
the area, while the individual showers move northeast. Precipitation
is not in far eastern and southeastern IL yet, but should be by
12z/7am. Models move front/precipitation through and out of the
CWA by noon and this looks reasonable given the speed the embedded
line of thunderstorms moving eastward through central IL. So, will
be issuing forecast with pre-first period to reflect current
conditions of precipitation ongoing over most of central IL. Looks
like clouds will clear out behind this system, so should be plenty
of sunshine this afternoon. As the front moves through the area,
winds will become west to northwesterly and continued breezy.

For afternoon high temperatures, took a compromise between the MET
and MAV guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Quiet fall weather on tap during mid week, as 1021 mb high pressure
settles southeast into the mid Mississippi and Ohio river valleys by
dawn Thu. Cooler lows tonight in the upper 30s and lower 40s with
fair skies and west winds diminishing to 5-10 mph during this
evening. Highs Wed mostly in the middle 50s over central IL, with
upper 50s se of I-70. Lows Wed night of 35-40F and could be some
patchy frost as weak high pressure settles into area overnight Wed
night with light winds.

A northern stream shortwave will race southeast from the northern
Plains across MO during Thu afternoon. Isolated light rain showers
or sprinkles possible by Thu afternoon and possibly into early Thu
evening over eastern IL. Forecast soundings show a fair amount of
dry air at lower levels (below 800 mb), so will keep the light rain
chances low, at or below 20%. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 50s.

Strong upper level trof digs southward over the eastern states late
this week while stronger Canadian high pressure of 1034 mb expected
to move into IL Saturday. This will usher in an ever colder airmass
with the first widespread freeze of the season expected over all of
central and southeast Illinois with lows in the upper 20s to near
30F Friday night. A freeze watch will eventually likely be needed
overnight Friday night over our CWA. Highs Friday in the upper 40s
and lower 50s central IL and mid 50s in southeast IL. Highs Saturday
only 45-50F across region. Lows could reach near freezing across
eastern IL Saturday night with mid to upper 30s over western IL
where return se flow starts sooner on back side of high pressure
which moves into the Ohio river valley Sunday. Highs Sunday in the
low to mid 50s as temps slowly modify.

Extended forecast models show strong upper level trof over the
Rockies with upper level ridging into the eastern states early next
work week which puts IL in a southwest upper level flow and more
unsettled weather returning. A frontal boundary moving near IL
Mon-Tue to bring good chance of showers especially Monday night and
Tue. Both 00Z ECMWF and GFS models advertise heavier qpf moving ne
into central IL during Monday night and shifting more into southeast
IL Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

Now that the cold front has moved past all TAF sites, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail for the entire TAF 24hrs. Low
clouds are leaving the sites and mid clouds will effect the TAFs
early this morning before becoming clear for the remainder of the
day. Then high cirrus can be expected to move over PIA and BMI
sites early this evening, followed by scattered SC clouds moving
in from the northwest, after midnight. These clouds should be at
around 4kft when they arrive. These clouds will not get far
enough south to effect SPI/DEC/CMI. So they will remain clear
tomorrow night. West winds will become breezy this morning and
last through the afternoon. Then winds will decrease as a high
pressure area begins to push into the state, loosening the
gradient.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Auten






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