Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 232041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
341 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

A couple features will continue to produce chances for showers and
thunderstorms through evening as SBCAPE to around 3000 J/kg has
developed with afternoon heating across central IL. First is the
upper trough axis located approximately along I-57 and pushing
eastward. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms could form east
of this for the next few hours before subsidence behind the axis
limits any development. Second is a surface trough axis from
Michigan through Kansas city and starting to produce some the
Milwaukee area back through NW Illinois west of the Illinois River.
This feature will move southeastward this afternoon and bring the
best chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across central
IL into the evening until nocturnal cooling diminishes instability
and the feature moves southeast of the area. Winds will diminish and
turn northerly overnight behind the trough axis with drier air
moving in, allowing temperatures to fall into the 60s for lows.
Expect highs to reach anywhere from 81 along I-74 to 87 in
Lawrenceville Monday.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

High pressure will bring dry weather and still relatively low
humidity Tuesday then Gulf moisture will return by Wednesday
behind the outgoing high. A slight chance for thunderstorms
returns as early as Wednesday afternoon as GFS produces
precipitation in a weak disturbance, however most models focus
precip chances with a cold front on track for Wednesday night into
Thursday. Highs on Tuesday expected in the mid 80s followed by
around 90 on Wednesday. The heat will be brief as the cold front
drops highs back to the low to mid 80s for the remainder of the
week and weekend. High pressure should keep conditions dry again
from late Thursday night into next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Lift associated with a trough crossing central IL this afternoon
will allow scattered cumulus cloud development at 3000-4000 feet
as well as isolated thunderstorm development from afternoon into
early evening. With the trough axis east of the area by mid
evening, all thunderstorms should end by 01-03Z. Overnight, humid
conditions and recent rainfall will allow some fog to develop,
however enough wind should continue overnight to keep visibility
reduction minimal. Have included tempo MVFR visibility 9Z-13Z for
fog potential. Winds NW 8-12 kts this afternoon decreasing to 4-8
kts and shifting to northerly overnight.




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