486
FXUS64 KMAF 092201
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
501 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over southeast Utah,
leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow
aloft. At the surface, a cold front lies menacingly just north of
KMAF, hung up due to increasing westerlies and diurnal heating.
This will allow pleasant temperatures this afternoon before the
front resumes its southwesterly intrusion with loss of diurnal
heating. The Latest NAM puts it down near the border by 12Z
Friday. Despite this, overnight minimums should remain a couple of
degrees above normal.

The more pronounced cooling sets in Friday as CAA continues in the
wake of the front, and clouds increase.  Highs look to come in ~ 8-
10F below normal.  Models are persistent in developing convection
early in the lower Trans Pecos, spreading north and west during the
day in upslope flow and along the front.  This, along with cooler
temperatures, will bring a respite to critical fire weather.

Friday night, the dryline will retreat beyond KELP.  The upper
trough will begin approaching from the west, and large-scale ascent
will expand convection westward, hopefully bringing much-=needed
relief to the drought-stricken higher terrain.  Lows should come in
2-4F above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

We find ourselves still in the post-frontal setup on Saturday with
persistent east-southeasterly flow supplying ample moisture (Td ~55-
60 CWA-wide) and shoving the dryline back near El Paso`s longitude.
Meanwhile, the upper low left freely spinning across the Great Basin
finally gets picked up by the jet stream and ejects towards AZ/NM.
While this trough doesn`t provide much in the form of synoptic
ascent, some steeping of the lapse rates could lead to some
instability to work with. The stationary front draped just
south/west of the Pecos Valley along with easterly upslope surface
flow and southwesterly flow aloft should help get some showers and
storms going as early as Saturday morning. The ensembles and NBM
maintain the thinking in achieving appreciable rainfall with a 60-
80% chance of seeing at least 0.1" and 50-60% of seeing over an
inch. With some steeping of the lapse rates with the approaching
trough, some severe weather is possible, especially south of the
stalled boundary. Surfaced based storms here could see isolated
instances of large hail and strong winds. North of the stalled
front, convection will still be possible but with it being elevated
nature, severe weather chances will be very low (but still
possible). It seems there will be 2 main round of rain this weekend
associated with the ejecting trough- the first round comes Saturday
morning into the early afternoon with a second round of rain for
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Per usual, the highest
precipitation chances and greatest rainfall totals will likely set up
across the eastern Permian Basin, though areas of convective
rainfall could lead to local maxima in precip. As the trough swings
through Sunday, subsidence and drier air brings an end to the rain
chances late Sunday with quieter conditions following on Monday and
Tuesday with weak ridging.

Temperatures on Saturday will be largely driven by the expectation
of thick cloud cover and the rainfall chances which will likely lead
to a pleasantly cool day. High temperatures likely are limited to
the 60s and low 70s in areas of clouds and rain with 80s and 90s
focused along the Rio Grande. A rapid rebound come son Thursday with
clearing skies in the afternoon allowing for highs in the 80s for
most. Conditions stay seasonably warm on Monday and Tuesday with the
upper ridge before the next cold front looks to arrive sometime in
the middle part of the week.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Surface analysis shows the cold front still stalled just
northeast of the terminals at 22Z. This will resume surging
southwest w/loss of daytime heating, w/the latest NAM pegging
fropa at KMAF at 00Z, and clearing the other terminals by 06Z.
Latest NBM brings in a bit more MVFR stratus for a longer period
Friday morning, but cigs should lift to VFR mid-afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Near-critical conditions have developed this afternoon primarily
across the western high terrain where very dry and breezy
conditions linger. Fortunately, a cold front sweeps into the
region this evening, brining much better moisture into the area
and some relief to fire weather conditions. Rain and thunderstorm
chances overspread the region Saturday into Sunday, with the hope
that wetting rains can bring some much-needed relief to the ERCs
which are exceeding the 75th percentile for a majority of the
area. Dry air and elevated fire weather may return out west for
Sunday.

-Munyan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  78  59  68 /   0  20  20  80
Carlsbad                 56  75  58  71 /   0  10  40  70
Dryden                   66  80  64  77 /  10  40  40  60
Fort Stockton            61  76  62  75 /  10  30  40  80
Guadalupe Pass           54  69  55  69 /   0  10  40  70
Hobbs                    54  75  55  66 /   0  10  30  80
Marfa                    50  80  54  81 /   0  20  40  70
Midland Intl Airport     59  77  59  68 /   0  20  30  80
Odessa                   60  77  60  68 /   0  20  30  80
Wink                     60  76  61  73 /   0  10  40  80

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...44