873
FXUS62 KMFL 111723
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
123 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...


.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Models show a trough/low complex migrating east over the E CONUS,
and sending an associated decaying cold front across the Florida
peninsula. Meanwhile, 850-700 mb layer analyses still depict a
rather dry layer of air persisting over the area. Even with the
enhanced moisture accompanying the front, it may not be enough
for significant deep convection to develop. Therefore, shower and
thunderstorm chances are expected to remain limited, with better
chances north of I-75. Latest model solutions show fair agreement
in stalling the boundary just south of the area on Sunday.

Winds shift more westerly ahead of the front which keeps the
ongoing warm trend. Expect widespread low-mid 90s this afternoon,
with sea breezes maybe keeping immediate coastal areas a tad
cooler. For Sunday, increasing cloud cover and northerly cooler
flow should help in knocking down afternoon highs a few degrees.
Widespread triple digit heat index values are still expected
today with mid to upper 90s on Sunday except for Miami- Dade
County where the triple digit heat index values will return for
another day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The next disturbance begins to emerge over the central United States
early on Monday with the formerly stalled front over southern
Florida beginning its retreat northward ahead of the next cold
front. A mid-level will move across the Mississippi River valley
Monday in Tuesday before moving into the Ohio and Tennessee River
valleys by mid-week. This will lead to a surge in moisture across
the region with the focus remaining to the north of the forecast
area closer to the frontal boundary near the Interstate 10 corridor
in northern Florida or the wiregrass regions of South Georgia and
Alabama. As the mid-level low is reabsorbed into the mean flow and
pushes east into the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and finally into
the Atlantic, the cold front will slide south across the peninsula
once again settling over central or south central Florida around
Wednesday before the boundary retreats back northward late in the
week as the next impulse moves across the southeastern United States
to close out the week and kick off next weekend.

Hot temperatures will return by mid-week and persist through the end
of the period. Some days could see widespread triple digit heat
index values which will need to be monitored closely in case the
threat of heat illness requires a Heat Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Some MVFR/VFR periods are possible with showers or even a few thunderstorms
in the vicinity of the terminals, mainly over the Atlantic coast. WSW
winds around 12 kts with gusts in the 20kts range will continue
through around 00Z then should continue to veer northward later
tonight in the wake of a frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Winds will shift from WSW this afternoon to northerly overnight
and into Sunday morning as a decaying cold front moves across the
waters. There`s a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening with the front. There might be enough
lingering moisture for additional showers to develop on Sunday,
mainly over the Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 122 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

The risk for rip currents will increase early next week as winds
gradually shift back to the ENE along the Atlantic beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A relatively dry air mass will remain in place over the next few
days, with minimum relative humidity values around 35 to 40 percent
over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the
lack of recent wetting rainfall could lead to enhanced fire weather
conditions even with winds forecasted to remain below critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  75  91  77 /  20   0  20  10
West Kendall     95  72  93  74 /  20   0  20  10
Opa-Locka        96  74  92  76 /  30   0  20  10
Homestead        93  74  90  76 /  10   0  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  93  75  88  77 /  30  10  20  10
N Ft Lauderdale  93  74  89  76 /  40  10  20  10
Pembroke Pines   96  75  93  77 /  30   0  20  10
West Palm Beach  93  73  87  75 /  40  10  20  10
Boca Raton       94  74  88  76 /  40  10  20  10
Naples           88  73  90  73 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...17
LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER....CF