624
FXUS64 KOHX 111727
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Upper level trough and surface low are making their way east
through the Great Lakes with a cold front dropping south and west
from the low. This front will approach Middle TN this afternoon
and may bring a few light showers to eastern areas. It will also
bring some cloud cover for the area. Things do look to clear out
by the evening. Highs this afternoon will reach the mid to upper
70s with comfortable dew points. With the drier air mass in place
the fog chances look to remain low tonight but still can`t rule
out a little bit of patchy fog to the south and east of Nashville
mainly near rivers and in valleys. The Space Weather Prediction
Center is continuing to predict significant geomagnetic storming
through Sunday. With the clear skies tonight that means we may get
another shot at seeing the northern lights but only if they can
make it this far south.

We will see great weather for Mother`s Day as high pressure builds
over the area. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80 with
comfortable humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Things will become a bit more unsettled as we head into the work
week. A short wave trough will push into the Plains on Monday and
that will bring the return of a more humid air mass. As the
humidity builds in we will see the return of shower and
thunderstorm chances starting Monday. The trough and cold front
will work over Middle TN on Tuesday. Severe weather is not
expected on Monday and the chances for severe weather look low on
Tuesday but still can`t rule out an isolated strong storm with
wind and hail being the threat.

A few showers will linger into Wednesday afternoon mainly over
eastern areas. Short wave ridge will then build in and that will
bring dry weather later Wednesday into Thursday. The dry weather
doesn`t look to last too long as another trough will push out of
the four corners region late week into next week. This will bring
the return of shower and thunderstorm chances. Highs will be
cooler on Monday in the 70s and will gradually warm back into the
80s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A weak surface boundary passing by to the north is bringing us a
few extra clouds this afternoon, but nothing really of
consequence. High pressure centered near the Arklatex remains the
dominant weather feature over Middle Tennessee, so we can look
forward to VFR wx thru the TAF period. Winds will shift around to
the NW during the afternoon, then relax somewhat after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      53  82  59  74 /   0   0  30  60
Clarksville    51  80  58  72 /   0   0  40  60
Crossville     46  74  52  67 /   0   0  20  60
Columbia       51  80  58  72 /   0   0  50  70
Cookeville     48  75  55  70 /   0   0  20  50
Jamestown      47  74  52  70 /   0   0  10  50
Lawrenceburg   51  79  58  72 /   0   0  50  70
Murfreesboro   48  80  57  73 /   0   0  30  60
Waverly        51  81  59  72 /   0   0  50  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Rose