Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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761 FXUS64 KOHX 070533 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1233 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 819 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Thunderstorm activity definitely over-performed today with several severe storms producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. Isolated activity remains across the area late this evening with the strongest storms located along the Cumberland Plateau. While these storms may continue to produce small hail and gusty winds, the severe threat is diminishing and will continue to diminish as we lose daytime heating. As for tomorrow`s severe weather threat, thinking hasn`t changed much from the earlier discussion below. Next round of thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon where daytime heating and plenty of instability will allow for pop-up storms. Latest runs of the HRRR don`t show much convection in the afternoon and what does develop looks to be poorly organized. But as a weak frontal boundary moves into Middle TN tomorrow night, that should provide more forcing for better organization. Thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and into the overnight hours will be capable of producing hail and damaging winds. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Humid conditions in place across the area this morning. Temps are in the 60s and lower 70s. The earlier shower and thunderstorm activity moved out earlier. We did get some isolated wind damage in our southwest. Also...isolated 2-4 inch rainfall amounts across Humphreys and also the Van Buren and Cumberland county areas. For today, plenty of instability in place. Dynamics are a bit weak but we should see some isolated to scattered activity fire in the afternoon. Will need to watch those aforementioned rainfall areas as a flood advisory or two may be needed. Otherwise, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out with some high winds and some hail possible later this afternoon. The convection should calm down for tonight but the humid and muggy conditions will continue. On Tuesday, some storms will fire but mainly in the afternoon. Organization looks rather weak and convection may hinge on outflows and heating. The slight risk which is in place does appear to be aligned with Tuesday night when a dissipating frontal boundary pushes some forcing into our area. Given the humid airmass, instabilities will remain in play into the overnight hours. The severe threat will include wind and hail potential. Wednesday appears to be the biggest severe threat. We are currently outlooked with an enhanced risk across our northwest. It looks to be a 2 wave event. The first and weaker wave, will occur Wednesday afternoon. some weak pre frontal forcing may tap into an increasingly unstable environment. Mid level Lapse rates and shear levels will be on the increase. I`d say isolated to scattered severe storms could impact the mid state as the storms move east northeastward. Wave #2 appears to be the main event. Models continue to trend toward later with each run. Though synoptics dont look classically dramatic, the forcing/instability/shear phasing looks about as good as it has all spring. Case in point, the omega fields are well organized and phase with 1500 j/kg cape, -7 showalter values, 850 mb wind speeds of 45kts, and ml laps rates of 7C to 8C at 06Z. Damaging winds, large hail, a tornado or two, and heavy rainfall will all be possible. Those rainfall amounts will average 1- 2 inches for Wednesday/Wednesday night. For the near term temps, its looking steady state and rather muggy. Lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 In the extended forecast, the first of 2 fronts will move through early Thursday. The second will move through Thursday night and bring some cooler air. A series of northwesterly impulses will bring off and on showers into the weekend but nothing noteworthy. Temperatures will cool down behind the Thursday fropas and actually dip below normal for the weekend. You can look for lows 45 to 55 and highs generally in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Patchy to locally dense fog has developed early this morning, especially for CSV/SRB. Expect this trend to continue through the early morning, before returning to VFR across the area. May have a few periods of low cigs near sunrise as well. VCTS will be in the area through this afternoon, but not enough confidence to include TSRA for any specific terminals at this time. Winds will remain from the S/SW, becoming gusty up to 20 to 25 kts in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 85 70 85 69 / 50 60 80 100 Clarksville 83 68 83 67 / 60 60 90 90 Crossville 80 64 80 63 / 60 70 70 90 Columbia 84 68 86 66 / 60 70 80 100 Cookeville 81 66 81 65 / 60 70 70 100 Jamestown 82 64 80 64 / 70 70 70 90 Lawrenceburg 83 68 85 66 / 60 70 70 100 Murfreesboro 85 68 85 66 / 50 60 70 100 Waverly 83 68 85 66 / 60 70 90 100 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Adcock