Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041130
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
730 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FRONT FINALLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA OF SHRAS CONTG TO MOVE THROUGH ERN VA/PORTIONS OF LWR MD ERN
SHORE NEXT FEW HRS. SFC WARM FNT FM ABT THE LWR CHES BAY ON W
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PDMNT IN CNTRL VA ATTM...AND WILL CONT TO
MAKE SLO PROGRESS LIFTING NE OF THE RGN THROUGH MID/LT MRNG HRS.
WK SFC LO PRES WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH NRN VA TO OFF THE CNTRL
DELMARVA BY THIS AFTN. FNTL BNDRY WILL AGN SETTLE S INTO CNTRL/SRN
VA LT TDA. WILL HAVE CHC POPS (MNLY 30-40%) INTO THE THIS
AFTN...HIGHEST N AND W PORTIONS OF FA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRAS/TSTMS
XPCD LT TDA AS THE BNDRY FM THE N PUSHES S AND COMBINES W/ DAYTIME
HEATING. ANOTHER RND OF MDT/HVY RA PSBL...ESP IN SCNTRL AND/OR SE
VA/NE NC (SOME OF THESE AREAS RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES FRI EVE). NOT
CONSIDERING ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL AVG QPF OF 1/2 INCH FM
CNTRL TO SRN VA...W/ LCLLY HIGHER AMTS (1-2 INCHES) PSBL. VRB
CLDS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TDA. HI TEMPS FM THE U70S-L80S N AND NW TO
THE U80S-ARND 90F S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
FNTL BNDRY STALLS INVOF VA/NC BORDER TNGT...THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK N ONCE AGN LT SUN INTO MON AS LO PRES SFC-ALOFT LIFTS NE FM
THE GULF STATES TO THE CNTRL MTNS. THERE RMN SOME MDL
INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS SCENERIO...LARGELY RELATING TO TIMING AND
WHERE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF TAKES PLACE.

LINGERING SHRAS/TSTMS TNGT FAR SRN VA/NE NC WHILE DRYING OCCURS
OVR NNE PORTIONS OF THE FA (ESP AFT MDNGT). THE FAVORED AREA OF
ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSTMS ON SUN LIKELY TO BE FM SCNTRL VA TO FAR SE
VA/NE NC INVOF STALLED FNTL BNDRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY S...PARTLY CLOUDY
NE TNGT THROUGH SUN. LO TEMPS FM THE M/U60S N TO THE U60S- L70S S.
HI TEMPS SUN MNLY IN THE L/M80S.

00Z/06 NAM FARTHER W W/ AXIS OF SGFNT PCPN SUN NGT INTO MON AS LO
PRES MOVES INTO THE CNTRL MTNS. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY INCRSG
INTO CNTRL/INTERIOR ERN VA INTO MON...WHILE KEEPING POPS LWR AT
MUCH OF THE CST. MOST LO TEMPS SUN NGT IN THE U60S-L70S. VRB
CLDS-MOSTLY CLOUDY MON W/ HI TEMPS IN THE L/M80S.

ATTM...TOTAL QPF THROUGH MON XPCD TO AVG 1-1.5 INCHES CNTRL/SCNTRL
VA TO INTERIOR NE NC...TAPERING TO AN AVG OF ABT 1/2 INCH OVR THE
LWR MD ERN SHORE. HWVR...LCLLY MUCH HIGHER AMTS ARE CERTAINLY PSBL
DUE TO HI PWATS (1.75-2 INCHES)/SLO MOVING OR REPEATING
SHRAS/TSTMS. WILL HIGHLIGHT PTNTL IN HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY CONTINUED LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH GRADUAL RE-REEMERGENCE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THAT WITH OCCASIONAL UPPER
DISTURBANCES/PERTURBATIONS PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC,
AS WEAK SFC TROUGH PERSISTS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE BY DAY (NEAR CLIMO NORMS), W/ SLIGHT CHC OR LESS OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LINGERING AROUND +2 S.D. ABOVE NORMAL. ACCORDINGLY, WE`LL
NEED TO BE ON GUARD FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CONTINUED TO RIDE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...GENERALLY FAVORING A TYPICAL
MID-JULY WARM/MODERATELY HUMID SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND,
WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS 65 TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRNTL BNDRY WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE REGION BY ARND MIDDAY...AS
LO PRES MOVES NNE FM SE VA TO JUST OFF THE DE/MD CST. THAT LO WILL
THEN TRACK NE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTN INTO SUN MORNG...PULLING THAT
BNDRY BACK S INTO NRN NC AS A COLD FRONT. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SUN MORNG...WITH THE BEST
CHCS SHIFTING FM THE ENTIRE REGION THIS MORNG...SWRD INTO SRN VA
AND NRN/NE NC THIS EVENG INTO SUN MORNG. EXPECT MAINLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ACRS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE THRU SUN MORNG...ESPLY DURING
THE MORNG HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
WSW GUSTS HAVE BEEN TO 20-25 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY
FM ARND 0930Z THIS MORNG...AND WILL CALM DOWN TO MORE LIKE 15-20
KT GUSTS BY 13Z. SO...SINCE THIS WILL ONLY LAST ABT 3 HRS...HAVE
NOT ISSUED A SCA...AND HAVE WINDS AT 15 KT FOR THE FCST.

NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU SUN NGT. UNSETTLED WX
CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
FRNTL BNDRY WAS LIFTING N ACRS THE WTRS EARLY THIS MORNG...AND
WILL LIFT JUST N OF THE AREA BY ARND MIDDAY AS LO PRES MOVES NNE
OFF THE DE/MD CST. WINDS WILL SHIFT FM THE ESE OVR THE LWR MD AND
VA ERN SHR...TO THE SW OR W DURING THIS MORNG TO ARND MIDDAY. THE
FRONT WILL THEN DROP BACK S OF THE AREA THIS EVENG INTO SUN
MORNG...AS SFC LO TRACKS NE OUT TO SEA. WAVES AVG 1-2 FT...SEAS
2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/ESS
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



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