Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 290807
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
407 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER
THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT ANALYSIS INDICATING ~1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER VA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACRS THE GULF STREAM OFF
THE GA/SC COAST. QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COMFORTABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
AND 60S. FOR TODAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
WILL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT/BKN AFTN CLOUD
COVER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (BUT STILL AVERAGING OUT PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY). FOR HIGHS GENERALLY WENT NEAR TO OR JUST A DEGREE
ABOVE FRI READINGS...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DEW PTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. PARTLY CLOUDY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY LOSES ITS GRIP ON THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...BUT THE FRONT THAT IS STALL OFF THE SE COAST DOES NOT GET
MUCH OF A PUSH TO COME BACK NORTH AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE/REMAIN
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER  VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND INTO
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVELS APPEAR TOO DRY SUNDAY
FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...BUT A FAIRLY THICK LAYER OF MID/HIGH
CLOUD COVER IS DEPICTED BY NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FROM SW TO NE BY
THE AFTN. EXPECT THIS TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF WHAT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES WOULD RISE TO IF IT WERE MOSTLY SUNNY. THUS...DESPITE
THE INCREASING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB
TEMPERATURES....ACTUAL HIGHS WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SAT
VALUES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW 90F READINGS POSSIBLE
IF CLOUDS HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE AND GET PICKED
UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. THESE FEATURES MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS DESPITE FAIRLY WEAK LIFT
AND A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WILL CARRY 20-30% POPS OVER FAR
SOUTHERN VA/NE NC AFTER 06Z/MON THROUGH THE REST OF MON
MORNING...AND WILL HAVE AT LEAST 20% POPS MON AFTN EXCEPT ON THE
MD ERN SHORE. A BIT MORE HUMID WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S SUN NIGHT...HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90F.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING FROM THE N-CENTRAL TO NERN US...WITH A WEAK
TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST. BROAD ESE FLOW BENEATH THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
SERN US. THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM TS
ERIKA...OR ITS REMNANTS AT THAT TIME. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-
ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED S OF THE REGION. GIVEN THIS...FORECAST POPS WILL BE BELOW
15%. BEYOND THAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. IF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH
CENTER RETREATS FAR ENOUGH N SOME OF THIS MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IF THE HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN S OF THE REGION. 20-30% POPS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED MAINLY INTO FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID THROUGH THE WEEK WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...WITH MID 80S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY FORECAST HIGHS DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...WITH LOW 80S AT THE BEACHES. FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SFC WINDS CALM TO LIGHT...AOB 5 KT. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY MORE THAN SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND SCT AFTERNOON CU WITH DECKS 4-6K FT AGL. WINDS
GENERALLY S TO SE AOB 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDS WITH WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A THREAT
FOR PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG EACH MORNING NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT IS A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE AOB 10 KT. WAVES GENERALLY 1-2
FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT AND 3-4 FT SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING E-SE NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
AND S-NE SOUTH (AOB 10 KT). SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED
TODAY...2-3 FT NORTH AND 3-4 FT SOUTH THANKS TO ONSHORE FLOW. LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST MID
WEEK. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH TO WEST MON-WEDS AOB 10-15 KT. SEAS
AVERAGE 2-3 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...SAM


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