Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 201353
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
953 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND LIFTS NORTH
OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY. A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...AND COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS...FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID MORNING UPDATE...HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVER AND POPS BASED UPON
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. MORE COULD COVER THAN EXPECTED
ON THE DELMARVA...AND INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE EXTREME SE
BASED UPON LATEST RADAR. RADAR DATA HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A
WEAKENING TREND WITH OFFSHORE SHOWERS AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST.
AT THIS POINT...EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE...AND HAVE ONLY MADE
MODEST CHANGES TO POPS AS A RESULT. FORECAST MAX TEMPS LOOK
GOOD...ALTHO MAY HAVE TO TWEAK MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE E/SE...IF
CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OR THICKER CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST.

EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION...SFC HIGH PRESSURE (CENTERED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST) WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SE COAST. THE
RESULTANT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL ENJOY A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN KEEPING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-25%) ACROSS FAR SERN
AREAS TODAY...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS. DRY ELSEWHERE. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES...PLEASANT READINGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPR 70S TO LOW 80S (HIGHEST INLAND).

FOR TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED IN-BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL LIMIT SMALL PCPN
CHANCES (~20%) TO FAR SERN AREAS ONCE AGAIN. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR WEST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST. LOWS IN THE MID 50S WEST TO THE
LOW/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A DRY AND WARM DAY SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW QUICKLY MOVES NORTH WELL OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS BECOMING W-SW IN ADDITION TO 850 TEMPS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 17C SUNDAY AFTN SHOULD BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.

THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A VERY NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE
FRONT AS THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS PA. WITH THE BEST
FORCING TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT
CLEARS SERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MUCH DRIER AIR...AND MAX TEMPS
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 75-80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
NE TO E WINDS WHICH MAY HAVE SOME MARINE IMPLICATIONS. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

A SURFACE TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS INDICATE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOME
OF IT SPREADING INTO OUR AREA. SLGT CHC SHOWERS ARE IN THE FCST ERN
VA/NE NC LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENE WIND...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12KT
ALONG THE COAST...AND 5-8KT INLAND. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR
TO BEGIN THE DAY...WITH 5K FT CIGS POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER COASTAL SE VA/NE NC
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC
-SHRA AND/OR -TSRA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND PREVAILS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
UPDATE...A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NEW
POINT COMFORT TO CAPE HENRY UNTIL 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A SCA IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND
THROUGH 4PM THIS AFTERNOON...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE SCA WINDS ~20KT ENE HAVE CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FT WILL OCCUR IN THE LOWER BAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN A 10-15KT ENE WIND. THE PERSISTENCE OF THE ONSHORE
WIND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 5-6FT OUT NEAR 20NM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN ALLOWING THE
WIND TO SHIFT TO N-NE AND DIMINISH TO AOB 10KT. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
~5FT AND HENCE THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE RACES OFF TO THE NE SUNDAY...WITH THE WIND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SW BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A NNE WIND SHOULD
CONTINUE EARLY SUNDAY OFF THE CURRITUCK OUTER BANKS...SO THE SCA FOR
THIS PARTICULAR ZONE HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF PROLONGED NE FLOW.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ632>634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
     656.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM/WRS
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...JAO
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JEF





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