Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 280001
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
801 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic Region tonight and slowly
exits the coast Friday morning. High pressure prevails off the
Southeast Coast the rest of Friday through the weekend. The next
cold front pushes across the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Approaching cold front has gained ewd momentum today as a 100kt
jet streak noses into the occlusion area of the upper low and a
srn stream jet pushes the rest of the front along. Although
precipitation is still west of the area, am still anticipating
an arrival time in the Eastern Piedmont early this evening and
after 800 PM for the Interstate 95 corridor/portions of the Nrn
Neck...spreading east overnight. 6hr qpf amounts not all that
impressive (0.10 inches or less) given Pwats of 0.75-1.00 inches
across the Ohio Valley and 1.25-1.50 inches over Gulf Coast
states that are expected to advect into the area from the
southwest tonight. The lower amounts likely have to do with the
"speedy" nature of the front, however the jet streak weakens
once it gets past the mts and the front ends up being slower to
exit the coast Friday morning, which should result in a bump in
6hr qpf amounts but still averaging around 0.10-0.15 inches.
There is enough instability/lift along the front, in addition to
favorable theta-e dynamics, to support thunder into the
overnight hours. Warm tonight ahead of the front with lows in
the mid-upper 60s (lower 60s Atlantic MD/VA Eastern Shore).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The front slowly exits the coast Friday morning with lingering
showers and thunderstorms possible across NE NC and extreme
SE VA into early afternoon. Precip totals for Friday should be
0.05 inches or less as Pwats decrease. Another warm day on tap
with highs reaching the mid 80s inland VA, lower 80s inland
NE NC and MD/VA Eastern Shore, and mid 70s to lower 80s beaches.


Weak high pressure builds in behind the front as it washes out
off the Carolina Coast. The nrn part of the front gets pushed
NNE by Friday aftn as it sticks with parent low in nrn
Ontario/wrn Quebec. Meanwhile, stacked high pressure begins to
dominate off the Southeast Coast. This will allow a warming
trend to remain steadfast through the weekend. Lows Friday night
in the 60s under mostly clear skies. Breezy southwest winds
expected to develop on Saturday and promote excellent mixing
conditions under mostly sunny skies. Highs Saturday in the
upper 80s to lower 90s inland and in the low-mid 80s beaches.
High cirrus to spread into the area from the northwest as a weak
cold front to the north melds/merges with a warm front lifting
into nrn VA from a low in the srn Plains. Best dynamics for any
shower/thunderstorm development is mainly north of the area,
however far nrn counties could see better precip chances (up to
30% POP) Saturday aftn/evening... whereas the rest of the area
is anticipated to remain dry within the subsequent warm sector.
The combination of the warm front located north of the area and
southwest winds of 5-10mph Saturday night will result in warm
overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s (mid 60s beaches).
Once again, the region remains well within a warm sector on
Sunday with a cold front crossing the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Highs 86-90F inland and 75-84F immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There will be increasing chcs for showers and tstms fm the west
late Sun night into Mon morning, as a cold front pushes into the
mtns. That cold front will push thru the mts by late Mon, then
cross the area and move off the coast Mon night into Tue
morning. Have maintained high chc to likely Pops for showers/tstms
fm Mon aftn into Tue morning. Lows Sun night will range thru the
60s. Highs on Mon in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows Mon night
mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Weak high pressure will
provide dry wx for later Tue morning thru Wed, as it slides
from the Gulf coast states to off the SE coast. Highs on Tue
and Wed mainly in the mid to upper 70s. Lows Tue night ranging
thru the 50s to near 60. Another low pressure area will lift fm
the lower MS valley twd the OH valley Wed night thru Thu. This
will result in increasing chcs for showers or tstms, esply
during Thu. Lows Wed night in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs on
Thu in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected through most of the night.
Weakening line of convection expected to push across the region
late this evening through overnight. Lower ceilings/visibilities
will be tied to convection, then some lingering MVFR to locally
IFR conditions possible through 15Z Fri.

Outlook...Mainly dry weather expected over the weekend. Next
frontal boundary expected late Monday into Tuesday with
possibility of shwrs and tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
Late this aftn, a weak cold front was pushing into the mtns.
Winds were mainly SSW 10 to 15 kt over the waters. That weak
front will approach fm the west tonight, then dissipates as it
slides into the nrn waters Fri morning. South winds will
increase a bit tonight, helping to maintain or build seas to 4
to 6 ft over the nrn three coastal zns. So, have maintained SCA
for these zns into Fri morning. Otherwise, expect SSW winds to
remain below SCA criteria.

A disorganized pressure pattern will produce SSE winds arnd 10
kt or less over the waters during Fri. Generally SSW winds 15 kt
or less will prevail over the wates Fri night thru Sun, as sfc
high pressure sets up off the Mid Atlc/SE coast. Waves 1 to 2 ft
and seas 2 to 4 ft.

Another deep low pressure system will move thru the upper Midwest
early next week. This along with an approaching cold front will
increase the pressure gradient locally, with SCA`s likely Mon
and Mon night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


&&

.CLIMATE...
It appears likely that Richmond and Norfolk will end the month
with the warmest April on record. Warm temperatures during most
of the month combined with an unseasonably warm period to end
April are expected to push the average temperature above that
which occurred in 1994. At Richmond, the previous record was
63.2 and at Norfolk it was 64.7. Both were set in 1994. This
month`s temperatures could be around a degree above those
values.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...BMD
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...JDM/JEF
MARINE...TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...


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