Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 230810
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
410 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today...then slowly
push through the local area on Tuesday. High pressure builds
across the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday...as low
pressure lingers from the Great Lakes to New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Fog has become widespread/dense invof I 95 corridor and points E
in interior ern/SE VA and NE NC...so raised a dense fog advisory
through 13Z this morning. Watching other areas E of the
advisory.

Previous discussion:
Sfc hi pres has shifted to E of ern New England...while lo pres
and an associated cold front were slowly pushing E through the
OH/TN Valleys. FG is again a concern early this morning...and
has become a bit more widespread in coverage as compared to the
past few mornings. Lo level mixing remaining limited (early)
this morning...then increase (as SE winds increase/become gusty)
by late morning/afternoon. Another warm/mainly dry day...though
increasing PoPs late (well) W of I 95. Highs in the u70s-around
80F central and (interior) E to the l-m70s W (where clouds
begin to thicken in the afternoon) and at the immediate coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest 00Z/23 GFS/NAM/ECMWF remain fairly similar w/ the
overall timing of the next cold front...now depicting the best
lift/forcing for likely to categorical PoPs (60-90%) from about
06Z/Tue through 18Z/Tue (lingering into Tue evening along the
ern shore). Strong low level jet and sfc dew pts in the
60s...will allow for some locally heavy downpours and possible
ISOLD tstms by late Mon night/Tue morning...mainly for
far srn/SE VA-NE NC. Instability markedly limited (and generally
confined to far srn/SE and near the immediate coast) despite
increasing low level winds. SPC has SLGT risk SVR for SSW parts
of the local area (shifting to the ern shore Tue morning). Hi
Res models depict a few bands of convection (which
weaken/gradually break up) moving into the region from the WSW
tonight...continuing to the coast Tue morning.

Partial clearing expected Tue by late morning W and by late
aftn E...and have continued w/ lowering PoP trend W-E. Still
mild through Tue w/ lows Mon night in the 60s...then highs Tues
in the 70s to near 80 F SE as cold air lags well behind off to
the NW of the local area.

Cold front reaches the coast early Tue night and is expected
to exit the coast by daybreak Wed morning. Any RA tapers/ends
at the coast Tue evening. Temperatures falling from the 60s in
the evening to 50F inland and upper 50s closer to the coast by
Wed morning. Dewpoints also fall from the lower 50s NW to lower
60s SE in the evening to 40-45F inland and 45F to around 50F by
morning. On Wed...local area looks to remain in between the sfc
cold front well offshore and deeper moisture/cold pool aloft to
our WNW. Cooler Wed w/ highs mainly in the m-u60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry conditions Wed night as exiting cold front moves well
offshore. Upper level trough swings through the region Thu
morning...mainly kick off ISOLD -SHRAs (mainly Delmarva) Thu
morning. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail Thu through at least
Sat as sfc high pressure builds in from the SW Thu and shifts
off the Mid Atlantic Coast during Fri. The high then tracks up
off the New England Coast for Sat. Model consensus diverges Sat
night into Sun. ECMWF has a coastal low developing near the
area...while the GFS not only has a coastal low developing near
the area but also a deepening sfc low over the Great Lakes
Region into Ontario. Incoming precip differs greatly between
models, therefore have leaned closer to climatology during this
time.

Temperatures at to slightly below normal for Wed night with
lows in the 40s (upper 30s possible far NW counties). Temps
slow to rebound on Thu as upper trough swings through and more
stable NW flow aloft develops over the area. Highs 60-64F. High
pressure slides into the region Thu night and then temperatures
slowly moderate. Lows Thu night in the 40s (around 50F beaches).
Seasonal normal highs Fri in the upper 60s to around 70F. Lows
Fri night in the upper 40s inland to 50-55F immediate coast.
Highs Sat in the lower 70s (upper 60s beaches). Lows Sat night
generally in the 50s (upper 40s Eastern Piedmont). Highs Sun
generally in the upper 60s to around 70F (mid 60s Eastern
Piedmont).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sfc hi pres has shifted to off of ern New England the past 12-18
hours...while lo pres and an associated cold front moves into
the OH/TN valleys. FG is once again a concern...mainly at
SBY/PHF/ECG w/ another round of VRB CIGs/VSBYs...and will likely
persist through the early morning hours. VFR conditions and
increasing mid/high clouds are expected to prevail after
13Z/23...w/ a SE wind increasing to 10-12kt...gusts up to 20 kt
possible during the aftn/eve. A cold front is expected to track
through the region tonight into Tue morning. This front will
bring the potential for MVFR/IFR conditions in RA and lo CIGS.
Mainly VFR Tuesday aftn/evening through Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will approach the region allowing for increasing winds
through the day today. Southeast winds will start out around 10
knots this morning, increasing to 15 to 20 knots by this evening as
the front approaches.

The cold front and associated low pressure areas will approach from
the west tonight and push across the waters Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient will lead to increasing SE
and then S flow ahead of the front this evening through Tuesday
morning. Winds shift to the WNW behind the front Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of
the waters Monday night through Tuesday afternoon (for the Rivers)
and lingering into Tuesday evening for the Chesepeake Bay and
Currituck Sound. Small Craft Advisories over the coastal waters will
continue through Wednesday. South winds of 15 to 25 knots with
higher gusts will occur Monday night into Tuesday evening.

Seas will build to 5 to 9 feet with waves of 3 to 4 feet in the Bay.
Winds become west to northwest at 10 to 15 knots behind the front
Wednesday night through Thursday. High pressure builds back into the
region Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ012>014-
     030.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ064-075-
     076-079>083-087>090-092-093-096-511>522.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...AJB


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