Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 280140
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
840 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FARTHER EASTWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY BUT LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE AREA INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
DRIFTING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST REMAINS IN CONTROL AND LOOKS TO
HOLD PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS
A LOT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
THIS WILL START TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST OVERNIGHT...THICKENING AS IT
DOES. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING...BECOMING CLOUDY BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH...EXPECT MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW...HANDLING OF THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE DIFFERS JUST ENOUGH TO MAKE EXACT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION TRICKY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NE ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SWLY
FLOW AND PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT PRESENT...THE RESULT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL SPREADING SW
TO NE ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE DAY SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES APPEAR
TO BE ACROSS THE WRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL VA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE
FORECAST, BUT POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE RAISED TO CATEGORICAL ONCE
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE BEST PRECIP IS KNOWN. HIGHS SUN IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S SE WHERE RAIN BEGINS LATER IN THE
DAY. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP LIFTS THRU THE AREA SUN
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.

THE FRONT STALLS JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND EXTENDS SE
INTO THE CAROLINAS AS SWLY FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES. THE
LULL IN PRECIP SUN EVENING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DEAMPLIFIES AND LIFTS INTO THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT...LIFTING INTO NC EARLY MON MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS ROUND
OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VA AS WELL AS NE NC. MODELS ARE
IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT...NOW LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA INTO MON EVENING. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS THRU MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGHS MON RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE N TO NEAR 50
IN THE S.

UPPER JET AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE REGION
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL UVM. REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP MON NIGHT INTO TUE
MORNING. TEMP PROFILES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THRU TUE
MORNING...AS THE BEST CAA ARRIVES AS PRECIP PUSHES OFFSHORE LATE
MON NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THRU TUE MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. LOWS MON NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH REGARD TO OVERALL PATTERN. A COLD
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO AND ACROSS
THE AREA. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. LOW TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AROUND 25-30 DEGREES...A BIT WARMER NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO THE LOW-MID
30S SE...WITH MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE 06Z...AS CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE
40S...AND IN THE 40S ALL AREAS FRIDAY (EXCEPT SE VA/NE NC WHERE
50S LOOK LIKELY).

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. GFS REMAINS 12-18 HOURS FASTER THAN
ECMWF WHICH DEVELOPS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT...DELAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL SUNDAY. REGARDLESS...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH MANY AREAS POTENTIALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE S=SW. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH LESS THAN 5 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND THICKEN TONIGHT AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE CWA BEFORE NOON ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO
PERSIST INTO THE AFTN/EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 035-060 KFT
ACROSS THE REGION AND VSBY 3-5 MI IN RAIN AND FOG.

OUTLOOK...STEADY RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. A LULL IN THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTN/EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND PSBL IFR CONDS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ALONG/JUST OFF THE VA/NC COAST.
SOME INCREASE IN WINDS LIKELY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY...AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
GRADUALLY DROP OFF AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OUT OF THE N/NE ON MONDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO LINE
WITH EARLIER FORECAST REASONING...AND ARE NOW INDICATING A STRONGER
SURGE...WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. ALSO EXPECT THAT SEAS WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD TO 5 FT OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE MON-TUE IN N/NE FLOW OF
15-20 KT. MAY NEED SOME SCA HEADLINES DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK...WITH
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX 88D RADAR IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST
WED 12/31. SEE FTMDOX (FREE TEXT MESSAGE) FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JEF/JAO
NEAR TERM...JAO
SHORT TERM...JAO
LONG TERM...WRS
AVIATION...JEF/LSA
MARINE...LKB/WRS
EQUIPMENT...





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