Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 281428
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1028 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND A BIT FARTHER E INTO THE WRN
OH/TN VLYS BY LATE TODAY...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
JUST N OF THE FA. NW FLOW ALOFT CONTS...W/ WEAK SFC HIGH PRES
JUST OFF THE COAST. EXPECTING AFTN CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED
PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN W OF I 95...AND POTENTIALLY DRIFTS
EWD DURING THE LATE AFTN/EVE. WILL CARRY 30-50% POPS W...LOWERING TO
SLGT CHC (20%) POPS ALONG THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS FROM THE MID 80S
AT THE BEACHES TO THE UPR 80S-AROUND 90F ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION SLO TO DISSIPATE TNGT...ESP W OF I 95. OTRW
VRB CLDS-PARTLY CLOUDY. W/ LO TEMPS 70-75F.

WEDNESDAY...
UPR LVL RIDGING CONTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT ANY AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HI TEMPS IN THE U80S-L90S...WITH
L-M80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NGT W/ LO TEMPS IN THE L-M70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-40%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE L90S...EXCEPT 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATTERN INITIALLY BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS
HUDSON BAY CANADA. GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...THEN
FLATTEN OUT SUN/MON. ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF COAST STATES...MODELS
SHOW A GENERAL PERSISTENCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. APPEARS
THAT A SFC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI...QUESTION IS WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR SOUTH
IT MAKES IT BEFORE STALLING/DISSIPATING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A
CLIMO-TYPE OF SCENARIO WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR
SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE
THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI AM WITH THE FRONT...THEN WILL KEEP CHC POPS (30-
40%) ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FA FRI-SUN WITH THE FRONT
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH AND THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LWR 90S
AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND VFR
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MIDDAY. SOME FOG EVIDENT IN OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE PIEDMONT AND NORTH OF KRIC...WHERE RAIN FALL YESTERDAY.
THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z. SCTD SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHC AT KRIC. MAINLY VFR CONDS
EXPECTED WED/THU... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION. NEXT CHC FOR SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER
CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE LATE THU INTO FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO AND ACRS THE AREA.

MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE SAT-MON EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES WILL STRETCH FM THE ERN GRT LKS SE TO OFF THE MID
ATLC CST TODAY THRU WED. EXPECT S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT THRU
THE PERIOD...WITH WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WTRS LATE THU...THEN PUSHES ACRS THE WTRS THU NGT
THRU FRI MORNG. SSE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT EXPECTED THU-THU NGT. WAVES
1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB/JDM
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...TMG/WRS
MARINE...TMG


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