Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 012304 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.AVIATION...
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE AT THE DHT TAF SITE THIS
EVENING. THE SHRA AND TSRA MAY HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE AMA
TAF LATER ON THIS EVENING. SO HAVE ADDED SOME TEMPO GROUPS TO BOTH DHT
AND AMA. THINK THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE GUY TAF SITE.
HAVE KEPT SKIES VFR WITH THE TSRA THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF ANY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY SMALL SO THE CHANCE OF THAT AREA MOVING
OVER A TAF SITE IS SLIM. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS
FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ONE LAST ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE A BRIEF
DRY PERIOD.

NEW MEXICO MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON REGIONAL RADAR
COMPOSITE. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
ENDING JUST PRIOR TO 7 AM TUESDAY.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST AND SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TO KEEP UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
FOR HIGHS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS OVER THE AREA WHICH
COULD ALLOW OFF AND ON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES AS THESE AREAS WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP THERE IS
SOME SUPPORT THAT THEY COULD BECOME STRONG.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08





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