National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KAMA 200127 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
827 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. STRONG CAP IN WAKE OF
EARLIER DAY MCS PROVED TO BE TOO MUCH FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME. A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 1 AM CDT. BIGGEST QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
HOW WELL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY
PROGRESS FARTHER EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
DAY MCS...ENCOUNTERING A MUCH MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING MLCIN VALUES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME THESE HIGHER MLCIN VALUES...INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/KG/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-50KT/ ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND AN ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...THIS MORE STABLE LAYER MAY BE TOUGH TO OVERCOME...WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS SHOWING THE STORM EAST OF TUCUMCARI WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THIS MUCH MORE STRONGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE
OUTFLOW. TIME WILL ULTIMATELY TELL IF THIS TREND HOLDS...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS CERTAINLY THERE IF
STORMS DO PENETRATE THE STABLE LAYER.

KB

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE KAMA TERMINAL THIS EVENING IF
THEY HOLD TOGETHER OUT OF EASTERN NM...AND WILL COVER THIS POTENTIAL
WITH A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 04Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MUCH LESS AT
KDHT AND KGUY AND WILL OMIT ANY MENTION FROM THE TAFS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DISSIPATE SOME AROUND SUNSET...BUT SOME GUSTS MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AT KAMA. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AROUND
14Z THURSDAY...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

SCHNEIDER/KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MORNING CONVECTION HAS HELPED TO STABILIZE THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW FROM OUR STORMS THIS MORNING
HAS PROGRESSED INTO THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS BEFORE LOSING
FORWARD MOMENTUM. THE RUC HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THAT CONVECTION
WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW AND COMBINE
WITH STORMS OVER NEW MEXICO BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...THE RUC HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN
THE MCS OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS TAKING A MUCH FURTHER EAST TRACK
WHILE NOT PROGRESSING THE WESTERN OUTFLOW FAR ENOUGH WEST. THIS
ARGUES THAT IF CONVECTION DOES FORM ALONG THE WESTERN OUTFLOW IT
WILL HAVE TO STRUGGLE AGAINST THE OUTFLOW PROGRESS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO
REACH THE PANHANDLES. HAVE KEPT POPS LOW AND USED AREAL QUANTIFIERS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

IF THE STORMS OVER NEW MEXICO CAN OBTAIN STRONG COLD POOLS THEN THEY
COULD OVERTAKE THE OUTFLOW AND TAP INTO ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS THEY
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF THIS HAPPENS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARDS. ALSO GIVEN AMPLE PWATS
ACROSS THE AREA...1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES...ANY STORM THAT MOVES INTO THE
TEXAS OR OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THAT
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL SEE
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES AND OPEN UP THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A FEW STORMS BRIEFLY PULSING
TO STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS THEN COLLAPSING. THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY/S WITH DECENT CAPE VALUES BUT VERY WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE THE RIDGE AXIS BUILD
BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED.

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS GIVEN THE RECENT WETTING RAINS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/08