Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 180438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1038 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017


For the 06Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. There
is a very small chance for slight visibility restrictions this
morning for a brief period of fog, but chances were too low to
include in the next period of TAFs.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 523 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017/


For the 00Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM CST Sun Dec 17 2017/

Basically a low confidence forecast at least in the latter portion
of the extended forecast period. First off, disregarded the GFS
solution completely in the extended forecast period and leaned
heavily towards the ECMWF and Canadian solutions. Closed upper low
over northwest Mexico to track east early this week across the
southwestern states and southern Rockies. The closed upper low
should weaken with the best lift and moisture remaining south and
east of the forecast area. Cold front to push through the
Panhandles Tuesday with dry conditions continuing. Attention then
turns to the latter half of the week and Christmas weekend as a
northern stream closed upper low drops southeast out of the
Pacific Northwest and across the Great Basin region Wednesday and
Thursday and then to near the Four Corners region by Friday.

Closed upper low to weaken into upper trough across the Rockies
and push across the Panhandles by late this week. Arctic cold
front to plunge south across the Panhandles Thursday afternoon and
by Thursday evening. Surface wave to develop on the western
periphery of the front over the southern Rockies Friday night and
Saturday with the frontal boundary extending across portions of
the Texas South Plains and West Texas. A secondary surge of much
colder air to push south across the Panhandles Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night. Confidence high on the cold outbreak but
confidence lower on precipitation. The GFS completely dry and not
handling the depth of the cold air very well at all. ECMWF and
Canadian much better at handling the cold air and precipitation
east of the surface wave over the southern Rockies. The Panhandles
being in the cold sector will likely see snow by Christmas Eve,
however will maintain low end slight chance PoPs for now with low
confidence. Stayed close to the much colder ECMWF MOS for temps
during the Thursday through Christmas Eve timeframe.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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