Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 181130 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

For the 12Z TAFs, VFR conditions will continue at all terminal
sites through 12Z Thursday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/


Noteworthy items for this forecast package include the breezy wind
speeds ahead of a cold front Friday, and then precipitation chances
in conjunction with the frontal passage Saturday. Frost potential
will be evident across northwestern portions of the forecast area
Saturday night. Precipitation chances begin Thursday night--albeit
small chances--and go through Saturday night. Best chance for
rainfall and thunderstorms will be Saturday.

We begin the period in mainly zonal flow aloft. A shortwave will
pass over beginning Thursday and a small chance for rainfall will be
introduced into the forecast Thursday night for mainly
western/southwestern portions of the forecast area. A couple hundred
J/kg of most unstable CAPE will be present, so could not rule out
thunderstorms completely but chances do remain small at this time. A
strong pressure gradient will setup across the local area Friday and
with it breezy wind speeds will be evident from the south,
especially eastern/northeastern portions of the forecast area. Then
most of the western and central CONUS will be engulfed by an upper
level trough Saturday. A cold front will sweep across the forecast
area on Saturday. During this time period leading up to the frontal
passage and behind the front, rainfall chances will once again enter
the forecast. The best chance for rainfall and thunderstorms will be
Saturday as the front slides across the region. Better chances will
be east of the forecast area across Oklahoma where the better
dynamics and thermodynamics are located. However, cannot rule out
thunderstorms across eastern portions of the forecast area where
1000-2000 J/kg of most unstable CAPE will be present. Additionally,
30-50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear will also be present. That being
said, severe thunderstorms may occur across eastern portions of the
forecast area Saturday afternoon.

In addition to the rainfall chances, temperatures are trending
cooler Saturday night from the previous forecast. Mid 30s are
currently forecast for northwestern portions of the forecast area.
These areas across the northwest could certainly have the potential
for frost Sunday morning. Wind speeds will be light enough and skies
will be clearing our behind the cold front to allow for radiational
cooling and possible frost to perhaps even freeze conditions if
temperatures keep trending cooler.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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