Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 301905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
305 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Surface ridge axis continues to build into the Great Lakes region
this afternoon as low pressure exits NE thru Quebec. scattered to
broken diurnal CU has developed across central sections of Ern Upr
Michigan and across N Central and NE Lwr Michigan. Cooling and
stabilizing effect pushed inland under NW low level flow is keeping
much of NW Lwr Michigan cloud-free this afternoon. Temps have warmed
mainly in the 70s across our CWA...and to near 80 across SE sections
due to downsloping under NW flow.

Diurnal CU will dissipate with the approach of sunset this
evening...leaving skies clear for the remainder of the night. With
clear skies and light/variable winds directly under the surface
ridge axis...temps should have no problem cooling into the mid 40s
to around 50 for overnight lows.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Tuesday through Thursday...

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Fairly zonal flow is expected
across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS through tonight before
low pressure dives from southern Canada into the northern Plains,
ultimately resulting in ridging/rising heights ahead of the wave`s
eastern progression across the Great Lakes during the midweek
timeframe. Vertically stacked low pressure continues to slide across
the northern tier of the country, swinging a cold front through
northern Michigan late Wednesday/Wednesday night. Tranquil
conditions to follow for the remainder of the work week before
another system approaches over the weekend.

High impact weather potential: Thunderstorms possible Wednesday-
Wednesday night with minimal severe threat inside SPC Day 3 Marginal

Details: Little in the way of consequence Tuesday as a shortwave
ridge axis shifts directly overhead by midday ahead an approaching
wave from the west. Precipitation focus is expected to remain
upstream across Wisconsin and western Upper throughout the day
Tuesday with little more than increased cloudiness across the
northern tier of the CWA. By Tuesday night, again the main precip
focus lies west of Lake Michigan coinciding with a SSW to NNE
oriented low-level jet stretched across Wisconsin into the U.P. Will
back off on PoPs slightly with just a few pockets of slight chance
across west of M-123 in eastern Upper.

On Wednesday, low pressure and attendant cold front ever so slowly
push toward the Great Lakes, ultimately increasing precip chances
across the remainder of northern Michigan. As mentioned by the prior
shift...expecting a line of showers and potentially heavy rain
producing embedded thunderstorms along the approaching cold front
axis as best QG ascent and deep layer moisture increases (PWs surge
to 1.25-1.50 inches ahead of the front) with perhaps a bit of
development out ahead of the front, all dependent on the degree of
destabilization. A wide range of potential instability as progged by
guidance members, ranging from a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE to
nearly 2,000 J/kg. Would expect something in the middle to be a more
realistic solution (the higher end of that range likely affected by
dew point temperatures modeled several degrees too high), especially
for those areas that don`t see debris clouds from Tuesday night
convection over WI and western Upper. SPC Day 3 outlook highlights
all of northern Michigan in a Marginal Risk for severe storms. With
30-40 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, any isolated strong-severe storms
certainly look to hinge on the degree of instability and is worth
monitoring in future outlooks.

The front looks to clear the area Wednesday night with most, if not
all, precip having exited by sunrise Thursday. Partially clearing
skies and cooler temps will be the rule, provided frontal timing
remains intact.

Mild temperatures continue Tuesday and Wednesday with highs ranging
from middle 70s to lower 80s (cooler along the Great Lakes
shorelines). Cooler weather, and actually a couple of degrees below
normal for several spots, arrives Thursday as highs range from the
mid 60s along the immediate lake shores to the middle 70s over
downsloping areas of northeast Lower.


Low amplitude troughing east of the Rockies, with ridging building
west, will result in a dry start to the extended period for us. This
will change likely Saturday, as a shortwave moving along the eastern
periphery of the strengthening ridging approaches the Great Lakes
region. Surface low pressure develops across the northern plains
downstream of this shortwave. This fairly slow moving low will
result in rain chances through the weekend and into early next week.
Thunderstorms look to be most likely Saturday, as return flow ahead
of the low will help to destabilize things a bit. With low CAPE and
minimal shear, it doesn`t look like much of a severe threat at the
current time.



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Solid VFR conditions are expected at all Nrn Lwr Michigan TAF
sites thru Tuesday afternoon as high pressure and dry air remain
the rule. W/NW winds gusting to 20 kts this afternoon will become
light/variable tonight. Weak pressure gradient on Tuesday will
allow for lake breeze development by midday.


Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon May 30 2016

Winds and waves will remain just below SCA criteria thru this
evening...further diminishing overnight as the surface ridge axis
builds into Michigan. Dry weather will continue thru Tuesday
night...with chances of precip again increasing on Wednesday ahead
of our next cold front.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Gillen/Mayhew
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