Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 021437
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1037 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A BACKDOOR FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE... "STEADY AS SHE GOES" WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

TYPICAL RIVER VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IS ERODING AWAY ACROSS THE TWIN
TIERS LATE THIS MORNING, ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. MEANWHILE, A MORE
STUBBORN AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUES OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES, CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND MOHAWK
VALLEY REGIONS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER, WE STILL
EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AS WELL, GENERALLY IN THE
11 AM TO 1 PM TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE, WE`LL ENJOY ANOTHER PARTLY-
MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON.

BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST MESO-ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS
WESTERN NY, WESTERN PA, AND SOUTHEAST OH AT THIS TIME. THE TWO
MAIN CENTERS OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY, HOWEVER, SHOULD TRACK BOTH
WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS ONT/QUE, AND ALSO WELL TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH WV AND VA THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, ANY MINOR
INSTABILITY THAT BUILDS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HAVE
INSUFFICIENT LIFT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. THUS, PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 20% AREA-WIDE.

THE LATEST HI-RESOLUTION TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS OUR
EARLIER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE
MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND DENSE FOG HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE
MORNING. FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN 14-15Z. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS
ROUNDING THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
OHIO. THIS WAVE WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BECOME WASHED OUT OVER
PA BY THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVERAGE... MAINLY OVER NE PA. THIS WAVE MAY CREATE A SHOWER
OR TWO... BUT FOR THE MOST PART... THE CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
TODAY.

LATE TONIGHT A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF
SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER WESTERN
NEW YORK AROUND 03Z THURS. THIS WAVE MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG TO DEVELOP WED NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE THE NORM THIS AFTERNOON... REACHING THE MID
TO UPPR 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND REACH WESTERN NY BY AROUND 15Z. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
PROBABLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. STILL DO
NOT THINK ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE... JUST LOWER TEMPS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NEPA FRI AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE UPPR LVL RIDGE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE REGION. FRI
EVENING THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED WHICH WILL END
THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 AM UPDATE: THE ONLY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS LONG
RANGE FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY FOR NEXT TUESDAY BASED
ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS WHICH ARE SLOWER WITH FRONT. WE ALSO RAISED
THE DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY OVER THE LONG RANGE BY COPYING IN THE
LATEST SUPERBLEND. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL HOLDS. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


TUESDAY PM UPDATE: RIDGING CONTROLS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THE NEW EURO TRIES TO SQUEEZE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH
THE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE TOP OF CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. RIDGING
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY...THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
THE ENTIRE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD BE WARM AND DRY WITH TEMPS MORE
THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE THREE DAYS. A FRONT DROPS
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THE EURO IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MAY HOLD THE
PRECIP OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME DIFFERENCES...BUT RAIN
CHANCES THERE BEFORE SFC HIGH MOVES IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MIST AND FOG ARE RESULTING IN RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST
SITES THIS MORNING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OCCURRING FOR
KELM/KBGM. BOTH THESE SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES BELOW AIRPORT MINS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT
OCCURRING FROM 13-15Z. MEANWHILE FOR KITH/KSYR/KRME LOOKING AT
MAINLY MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING. BEYOND
THIS TIME VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT ALL SITES
WITH JUST SOME SCT CU.

EXPECT RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SITES
(KITH/KELM/KBGM) ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT IN AREAS OF MIST AND
FOG...THICKEST FOR KELM AS USUAL. WE DO NOT BRING IN RESTRICTIONS
FOR KSYR/KRME FOR THIS TIME AS APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE BRINGING
IN HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE FOG FORMATION.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
GENERALLY VFR, WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG
EACH MORNING, WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM. POSSIBLE DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH/MLJ
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...ABS/PCF
AVIATION...PCF


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