Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 272358
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
758 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Patchy fog is possible tonight. An approaching cold front will
bring another round of showers on Tuesday. An area of high
pressure, over eastern Canada, will build across the region
Wednesday and Thursday, to bring drier weather. Temperatures
will become mild both today and Tuesday, then turn a bit more
seasonable Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 pm update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the
potential for fog tonight, along with the next round of rain
showers Tuesday and possibly a few weak isolated thunderstorms
over northeast PA during the morning and afternoon hours. There
is also a concern for flooding over portions of s-central NY and
ne PA late tomorrow through Wednesday.

Weak low pressure system north of Lake Ontario was the focus for the
rain showers that moved through this morning. Trailing this low is a
very weak area of surface high pressure and co-located upper ridge
that is currently moving through PA/NY this afternoon. This ridge
has a slightly drier air mass associated with it which has allowed
the rain to either taper off or come to an end. The ridging and weak
large scale suppression will impact the area tonight and act to
create an environment favorable for low clouds and patchy fog. Some
locations...especially higher elevations...may see visibilities drop
to a half mile or less at times late tonight and Tue morning.

Temperatures tonight will remain fairly mild...only dropping into
the lower/mid 40s. Highs on Tuesday will be a bit cooler than today
with more cloud cover and daytime rain...only topping out in the mid
to upper 50s. Temperatures will fall into the 30s Tuesday night as
the cold front slides to the east.

The next low pressure system will be quick on the heels of the
departing trough and begin to move in from the sw late tonight and
Tue morning. The upper trough will be an open wave and move fairly
quickly e/newd through the region...but still be capable of dropping
a quarter of an inch of rain. PWATs around 0.75 to 1 inch with the
air mass ahead of the cold front will lead to the potential for
locally higher precip amounts Tuesday. The combination of this
rainfall and the rapidly melting snow will lead the the possibility
of localized flooding issues. A Flood Watch has been issued for
portions of s-central NY and ne PA. Check the latest Hydro
discussion below for details. There is also the potential for a
few isolated thunderstorms over ne PA on Tuesday. BL CAPE values
around 100 J/kg and a weakly sheared environment will promote
very limited convective activity...but combined with a decent
amount of deep moisture and the passage of an upper trough and
sfc cold front...may lead to a few storms.

The rain will taper off from west to east later in the day Tuesday
as the system exits. A colder air mass will begin to move in behind
the front late Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
330 pm update...
Quiet period with surface high and dry weather. The large high
bleeds in from the northwest. Air is not that cold highs
Wednesday in the low and mid 40s. Wednesday night near
saturation with lows in the mid and upper 20s. Snowmelt will
wane Wednesday. Thursday dry as the high pressure holds on.
Ridging and warm air advection aloft. Highs in the upper 40s and
lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 pm update...
Watching closely a strong slow moving storm Thursday night to Friday
night. After that a mostly dry weekend into Monday. Late Monday the
next storm will approach from the southwest.

Model trends on the first storm are for faster and weaker
progression. Center of surface low and upper level trough further
south. Thursday the storm will be in the central Plains then move
into the Ohio Valley. After this it heads east off the Virginia
coast. Temperatures at low levels will be colder so could be a mix
of rain and snow Thursday night and Friday night especially in the
east at higher elevations. For now rainfall amounts are half an inch
to an inch widespread. Slightly faster timing of front would mean
little low level instability with best rain late Thursday night and
Friday. Will watch river levels closely. Too early to determine if
this will cause flooding.

High pressure builds in Saturday night and lasts into Sunday. Weak
to neutral cold air advection with northwest flow. Monday warm air
starts back in from southwest. Making some rain comes in late ahead
of a warm front.  will be in transition as flow goes zonal and
another short wave and weak front approaches late.

Temperatures close to normal with highs in the 40s and lows in the
30s into Saturday then highs in the 50s Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A difficult low confidence forecast. VFR conditions currently
prevail across the terminals. Overnight cooling will lead to low
level saturation and fog development. Around 06Z widespread
alternate required conditions will form with occasional
alternate minimum conditions at KITH/KBGM/KELM between 09Z-12Z
due to thicker fog. Tuesday morning around 14Z, an upper level
disturbance will impact the region and bring the southern
terminals light rain with widespread alternate required
conditions with IFR/alternate minimum conditions to KITH/KBGM.
At KSYR/KRME, alternate required conditions will continue with
light rain showers most likely during the afternoon.

Light and variable winds becoming light northerly on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday/Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Saturday...Restrictions likely in
showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
315 PM EDT Monday UPDATE...Issued a Flood Watch for the minor
flood potential in the North Branch Susquehanna and Upper
Delaware basins, including both small streams and a few points
on the main stem rivers. Walton is currently the only point
forecast by MARFC to flood, but others in the Susquehanna basin
are close.

Still expecting prolific snow melt, especially on Tuesday.
Temperatures were struggling a bit today, but overnight lows
tonight will not be that cold and runoff should continue after
dark. Rain amounts next 48 hours seem rather minimal at about
one half inch across the area of concern. Reports from a drive
around by our COOP manager today indicated still about 6-10" of
widespread snow cover in higher elevations of the Western
Catskills, with estimated SWE in excess of 2" still likely, so
the potential is there for sure. Without evidence in the models
of a major rain event, we should get by this with only
inconvenience flood issues. Looking ahead, though, the pattern
definitely has the potential for being unsettled at times
straight into the first week in April and we will need to remain
vigilant.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night for PAZ038-039.
NY...Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday
     night for NYZ045-046-055>057.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...BJT/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH/TAC
AVIATION...RRM
HYDROLOGY...


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