Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 150849
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
449 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH LATE WEEK KEEPING THE REGION DRY BUT COOL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 440 AM...SATELLITE PICS SHOW AN AREA OF BKN/OVC SKIES FROM
EASTERN LAKE ERIE TO THE HUDSON VALLEY. THIS IS FROM A VERY
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 4K FT WHICH HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
FROM DROPPING MUCH LOWER THAN THE LOWER 40S. WITH THIS CLOUD
SHIELD EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL MID MORNING THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST IS OVER AND ALL ADVISORIES ARE CANCELLED. ONLY
AREA WHERE PATCHY FROST MAY STILL OCCUR IS IN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY AS ENOUGH BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED OVERNIGHT FOR TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SFC HIGH PRES WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE
OFF THE EAST COAST LATER TODAY PROVIDING A MODERATING SOUTHWEST
FLOW. AS THIS FLOW DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/TUESDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF
CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS AS THIS
FEATURE PASSES, PRIMARILY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK.
BY MID MORNING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRES WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY KEEPING THE REGION DRY. MAX TEMPS ON WED WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SFC TROF WILL DROP SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA
BRINGING SOME INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW AND JUST SHOW SOME INCREASING CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COOL WITH HIGH PRESSURE. THE
WEEKEND WILL WARM AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE.

NO CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A PERSISTENT UL TROF REMAINS FIXED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A
SURFACE HIGH KEEPING THE WEATHER FAIR AND COOL. THERE IS A
TEMPORARY RELAXATION TO THE FLOW PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
AS THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE JET FLOW GOES ZONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL (LOW 70S).

HOWEVER...LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A
STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE UL
TROF RETURNS TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. AMAZINGLY,
THE MEAN EASTERN TROF HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE LAST NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...

MAINLY VFR THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT.

LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS WITH 5K FT CIGS ACROSS NY. AVP ON THE EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS BUT SHOULD HAVE CLOUDS MORE THAN NOT.

WITH THE CLOUDS VALLEY FOG WILL BE HARD TO COME BY SO WENT WITH
ONLY WITH A 8 TO 12Z TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY FOG AT ELM.

THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT LATE MORNING BUT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL COME IN. 4K FT CLOUDS WILL COME BACK THIS EVE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TOWARD 6Z.

WINDS LGT/VRB EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SW AT 5 KTS TODAY.
TONIGHT S AT 5 KT OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...

MON OVERNIGHT AND TUE MORNING...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

TUE AFTN TO FRI...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...DJP/TAC
AVIATION...TAC





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.