Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 020225
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1025 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING. WARM AND HUMID
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1025 PM UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE NWRN FA INVOF 1000 J/KG ML
CAPES AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALTERED POPS THROUGH 6Z
TO INCLUDE A 20 POP FLOOR.

THERE MAY BE A LULL BETWEEN 6Z AND 9Z BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE STARTS
MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE FA.

450 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS INTO SERN FA AHEAD OF APPROACHING CONVECTION
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MAINLY CAPE
DRIVEN (ML CAPES ~ 1000 J/KG IN THIS REGION), AND THEREFORE SHOULD
RETRACT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON A FEW STRONGER CELLS OVER BUF`S AREA, INVOF
LAKE BREEZE AND SUPPORTIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.


1 PM UPDATE... SFC TROF HAS SET UP ALONG SERN SEABOARD AT THIS
TIME WITH BNDRY EXTNDG OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. S/WV IS CURRENTLY
RIDING UP ALONG BNDRY AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION IN
THE DELMARVA REGION. TSTMS CURRENTLY OVR THE POCONOS AND CATS HV
DVLPD IN RRQ OF H2 JET STREAK ALONG WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT.

EXPECT CVRG TO INCREASE THRU THE OVRNGT AREAS ACRS FAR SERN ZONES AS
WV APPCHS FM THE SOUTHWEST AND PROVIDES ADDNL LIFT. AFTR SUNSET
EXPECT INSTABILITY TO WANE, LVG JUST SCTD SHOWERS THRU THE MAJORITY
OF THE NIGHTTIME HRS.

FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACRS THE FINGER LKS REGION MLCAPES HV INCREASED
TO 1000 J/KG AND A CU LINE IS BEGINNING TO DVLP ON THE LK BREEZE
BNDRY. WL CAP POPS AT 20% FOR NWRN CNTYS THIS AFTN WITH BETTER
SUPPORT FOR CVRG FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTN AND EVNG. AS WV
RIDES FURTHER NORTH IT STANDS TO REASON THAT PCPN WL BCM MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-84. ANY AREA OF RAIN THAT CAN
DVLP WL HV THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN HVY DOWNPOURS AS WIND FIELDS
ARE MEAGER UP THRU 500MB.

SKIES WILL CLOUD UP TWD DAYBREAK WITH RADNL FOG NOT A CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT. MINS WL BE 5-10 DEGREES WRMR THAN THIS MRNG IN DEEPER VLY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 PM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTS THRU THE END OF THE WEEKEND THO BY SUN NGT
TROF OPENS UP AND LEAVES AREA IN ZONAL FLOW THRU THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PD. WL CONT WITH CHC SHRA/TSRA DRG THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WITH DEEP TROF HEADING EAST AND THROWING SUBTLE S/WVS AT TIMES ALONG
WITH ANY INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE PRESENT, THO SKIES WL BE CLDY DRG
THE DAY TOMORROW THEREFORE EXPECTING MEAGER CAPES. HWVR IF ANY
BREAKS CAN DVLP THIS WL LKLY SET UP AN AREA OF MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH DIFFERENTIAL HTG BNDRY BUT CANNOT PINPOINT ANY ONE
SPECIFIC AREA FOR THIS TO DVLP. THUS WL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS.
VRY LITTLE CHG IN PATTERN THRU MONDAY WITH DWPTS RMNG IN THE 60S AND
DIURNAL HTG EXPECTED TO FIRE OFF AFTN SHRA/TSRAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
2 PM FRI UPDATE... THE SAME BASIC L/WV PATN WILL PERSIST...WITH A
LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS.

INDIVIDUAL S/WVS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE ABV DESCRIBED FLOW PATN WILL
LIKELY HAVE THE MOST INFLUENCE ON EXACTLY WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION
FORMS. SINCE THESE FEATURES ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FAR
OUT...WE`LL SIMPLY CALL FOR ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS MOST OF THIS
PD...WITH THE AFTN/EARLY EVE HRS MOST FAVORED NEAR PEAK HTG...AND
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME VERY LIKELY ENDING UP RAIN-FREE. ALL OF
THAT SAID...TUE MAY SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...WITH AN
EXPECTED FROPA LTR IN THE DAY OR AT NGT.

TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY AUG...WITH
HIGHS FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
AS OF 00Z...ISO TO SCT SHRA-TSRA CAN STILL BE FOUND IN NORTH CENTRAL
NY WELL WEST OF KSYR AS WELL AS OTHERS NORTHEAST OF KAVP. WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH.
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF KSYR GETTING SKIMMED BY A SHRA-TSRA
LATER THIS EVENING...IN THE 02Z-04Z TIME FRAME...BUT I DO NOT
THINK IT IS LIKELY AS LOSS OF HEATING ALLOWS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY TO
FALL APART...AND THUS IT IS NOT IN THE TAF /THOUGH WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY/. MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS VALLEY FOG KELM
ESPECIALLY 08Z-12Z TIME PERIOD WITH IFR VIS POTENTIAL...THOUGH
SOME WIND IN LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET AGL AS WELL AS SCATTERED
HIGH THIN CLOUDS COULD CAUSE VIS TO BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT. KAVP RECEIVED
RAINFALL TODAY...WHICH ALONG WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN
GENERAL...WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL MVFR VIS AND/OR CIG IN THE 09Z-
13Z TIME FRAME AND MAYBE BRIEF -RA. AS MOISTURE PUSHES
NORTHWARD...KBGM ALSO IS SET TO HAVE MVFR CIG AND PERHAPS EVEN -RA
FOR A TIME. SOME MVFR MIST AT KITH EARLY MORNING...THOUGH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THAT. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MORE STABLE AND THUS THUNDER POTENTIAL NOT THAT HIGH. EXPECTING
OVERCAST YET MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHRA AND ISO
TSRA...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT SE 0-5 KTS OVERNIGHT...THEN SSE OR S 4-8 KTS
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT-WED...BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA-TSRA...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MDP





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