Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 260745
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
345 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
On the back side of a low pressure system, today will feature a
cool northwest wind and scattered showers. Though mostly dry
Saturday through Sunday, weak disturbances could cause a brief
passing shower at times. Our best chance of rain will be Sunday
night, from a wave of low pressure. Scattered showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm can be expected on Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
320 AM Update...
Back side of low pressure system will result in cool
temperatures and scattered showers today, then a general drying
trend and moderating temperatures will take shape into Saturday
though a passing shower still cannot be ruled out.

Stacked low has crossed over Pennsylvania and is centered
roughly over New York City at this hour. Associated with the
cool pool of air aloft and resultant steeper mid level lapse
rates, showers contained some embedded thunder earlier in the
Poconos to Catskills, but instability aloft is waning so
lightning is probably done at this point. We will be on the back
side of the departing low today, with a cool northwest wind and
scattered showers. Early this morning, shower coverage will be
greatest in the Wyoming Valley to Poconos in PA, and up the
Catskills to about Cooperstown in NY. Then today, much of the
time will be dry but diurnally driven scattered showers will pop
up almost at random. Highs will be mainly 60s, though lower
elevations of Northeast PA-Sullivan County NY could get to
around 70 degrees.

Northwest flow will relax yet not completely go away tonight,
and so clouds will be slow to break. Lows will be right around
climatology; upper 40s to lower 50s. We will not really manage
to mix down drier air today, and low level moisture from recent
rainfall will persist, thus patchy fog can also be expected
tonight especially in valleys where holes occur in cloud cover.

Weak high pressure will attempt to drift into the area
Saturday, along with gradual ridging aloft. However, models
still depict a mid level short wave skimming through the area so
a small chance of a quick passing shower will exist from
Central Southern Tier to Poconos; possibly even as far north as
Finger Lakes to Catskills but it will be more doubtful there due
to amount of dry air. Either way, vast majority of day and area
will be rain-free for a decent Saturday with temperatures
moderating into upper 60s-lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

330 AM Update...Brief ridging at the surface and aloft should
keep the area mainly rain free Saturday night into Sunday. Ridge
slides east later Sunday as a low over the lower Great Lakes
pushes into western NY. This will bring a chance of showers late
in the day Sunday in the west and south, and across the rest of
the area Sunday night. Decent little upper jet will result in
good upward motion and widespread rain with even some isolated
thunder possible. Previous discussion continues below...


On Saturday night kept slight chance pops across much of
central New York and northeast Pennsylvania as this wave pulls
east. Low will be in the 50s.

Sunday is not looking as wet as yesterday`s model runs. A mid
level short wave in southwest upper level flow will swing
through the region during the afternoon as the surface low
tracks from the Ohio Valley into southern Pennsylvania. Will
continue with likely pops in the central southern tier and
much of northeast Pennsylvania and chance elsewhere. Highs will
once again range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Sunday night looks to be the wettest period and will
continue with likely pops as surface low pressure moves from
the Ohio valley northeast into nearby southern Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

330 AM Update...very minor changes made to the extended
forecast. Simply tweeked the temps and pops in a few periods to
the latest guidance. Previous discussion continues below...

Medium range models are in fair agreement during the extended
period indicating a upper level low will slowly track from the
vicinity of Lake Superior northeast into Quebec by Wednesday
with the trough possibly relaxing by Thursday. Overall a very
unsettled period with a chance for showers each day through
Thursday. Temperatures through the period will be near
seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low pressure is passing through the region, resulting in
restrictions and in some cases showers. At 06Z fuel alternate
required ceilings were already occurring for KBGM-KAVP-KELM-KITH,
and they will make their way to KSYR-KRME as well. Most
terminals will reach into IFR at times, and possibly worse. KELM
will be very tricky because as clouds try to break early this
morning, fog will almost immediately form and perhaps even a
lower ceiling. Light and variable winds will pick up out of the
west to northwest during the day as the low pressure moves
past. Improvement to high end MVFR or even VFR may occur for
KELM-KBGM and especially KAVP during the day, but KITH-KSYR-KRME
will probably persist at fuel alternate required. Then this
evening, ceilings may start lowering again.

Outlook...

Saturday...Lingering ceiling restrictions for some terminals early,
then VFR except brief passing showers possible KELM-KITH-KAVP.

Saturday night through midday Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Late Sunday through Sunday night...Showers/restrictions likely.

Monday through Tuesday...Brief restrictions possible from
scattered showers and perhaps thunder.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM/RRM
LONG TERM...DGM/RRM
AVIATION...MDP



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