Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 040716
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
216 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR NORTHEAST PA INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF SCRANTON TO MONTICELLO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
120 AM EST UPDATE...
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION HOURS AGO...WE
STILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OR TWO OF MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH
THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLD THICK LAYER OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM
WEDGE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL
BURST OF SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO
REFREEZE INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. THE FEW REPORTS OF
FREEZING RAIN WAS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST PA. HOWEVER...AT THIS
HOUR...ROME AND SYRACUSE NOW HAVE VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN-
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL STILL OCCUR AT TIMES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE WEAK ADDITIONAL WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE SATURATED LAYER REMAINS ONLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS BELOW ZERO AT ITS COLDEST...MUCH OF IT EVEN
ABOVE FREEZING...SO OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION THERE WILL STILL
BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. YATES-STEUBEN-CAYUGA-SENECA
COUNTIES ARE GENERALLY GETTING ABOVE FREEZING NOW...WITH DRIZZLE
SPOTTY...SO WE HAVE DROPPED THOSE ZONES FROM THE ADVISORY WITH
OTHERS PROBABLY FOLLOWING LATER THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LIGHT... SPOTTY PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE
LIGHT SHOWERS OR RAIN OR SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY JUST
ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE NAM HAD
BEEN SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER INDICATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY IN EARLIER
RUNS... HOWEVER THE LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE TRENDED SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST PA BUT LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
NORTH OF THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS AND UP
TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR NORTHEAST PA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CHC POPS FOR CENTRAL NY... HOWEVER NO
ADVISORIES OR WATCHES ARE INDICATED AS OF YET FOR THIS EVENT.
HOWEVER WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL INDICATED JUST TO THE SOUTH THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A MINOR LAKE RESPONSE MAY BRING SOME FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT...H5 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PRIMARILY WITH A 300 LOW LEVEL FLOW.
ACTIVITY WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO SFC RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS.
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG 300 VECTOR ACROSS
CENTRAL NY. LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS.

FRIDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL DROP INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AS THE NEXT
SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND BRING ANY LINGERING FLURRIES INTO NRN ONEIDA COUNTY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY WITH MAXES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO
LOWER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIGICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WHILE STEADY PRECIP HAS ENDED. SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN STILL POSSIBLE WITH MVFR VSBYS UP TIL 13Z.

BGM ITH AVP COULD HAVE IFR CIGS UP TO 14Z. SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET LATE MORN AND AFTN.

AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE EVE AND OVERNIGHT. IN NY DRY WITH STEADY
HIGH END MVFR CIGS.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST BY 12Z. THIS AFTN
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.  THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

WED OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW AT KAVP...OTHERWISE
MVFR DUE TO CIGS IN NY.

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     018-023>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MSE/RRM
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC





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