Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 271352
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
952 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND LAST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
DRY AND LESS HUMID.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
945 AM WED UPDATE... THE CURRENT FCST IS IN DECENT SHAPE...SO JUST
COSMETIC TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

ISOLD-SCTD SHWRS ARE MOVG INTO OUR NRN/WRN ZNS LATE THIS MRNG.
BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES DATA...OUR EXPECTATION STILL IS THAT
SHORT LNS OF CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE AFTN...WITH THE
MORE ROBUST DVLPMT NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW UNSTABLE WE`LL GET...AS THE LATEST VSBL
SAT LOOP SHOWS A FAIR AMT OF CLDS FILLING IN WITHIN A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE WILL STILL BE ENUF
BREAKS/INSOLATION TO REALIZE AT LEAST 700-1000 J/KG OF ML
CAPE...PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER IN OUR FAR ERN/SERN ZNS. COUPLED WITH
DEEP-LYRD SHEAR OF 30-40 KT...AND 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 15-20 KT...THIS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MORE INTENSE LINEAR TYPE STORMS...WITH
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN PWAT VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" AND DEEPLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW PROFILES...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/TRAINING
ALSO COULD STILL BE AT PLAY. THUS...IN ADDITION TO OUR CONTINUED
MENTION OF THESE THREATS IN THE HWO...WE ADDED SOME ENHANCED
WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE WX GRIDS.

OUR WRN AND NRN ZNS SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE
AFTN...WITH SIG RAIN-FREE PDS AND ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION FORESEEN
HERE WELL INTO THE EVE HRS.

WE`RE STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPR 70S-MID 80S.

PREV DISC... EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROF RESIDES IN
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE LEADING SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
PRE- FRONTAL SFC TROF OVER WESTERN PA. THESE FEATURES WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND NE PA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA DURING THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS THEN REACH
THE CENTRAL CWA LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND FINALLY
ERN SECTIONS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SVR WX TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KNOTS AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR NEAR 15-20 KNOTS. SHEAR VALUES ARE BEST ACROSS CNTRL NY AND
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE ACTIVITY NOT REACHING THE
EASTERN AREAS UNTIL LATER TODAY MODELS SUGGEST BETTER INSTABILITY
HERE WHICH MAKES SENSE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND
WITH BETTER SHEAR AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE LATER TODAY. THE BEST
THREAT APPEARS ALONG AND EAST OF I81 WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY MAY BE REALIZED. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL LOOKS LESS LIKELY AS CAPE DEPICTED ON SOUNDINGS
IS TALL/SKINNY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.
SINCE AIRMASS IS REALLY JUICY WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75", ANY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED DRAINAGE
FLOODING POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ALL THIS IN THE HWO.

WILL INCREASE POPS RAPIDLY THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...SFC COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL
ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NE PA WHERE MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY LATE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON REGION SHOULD BE DRY AS
A COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH NE PA IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND MORE HUMID
AIR. PERIOD WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH MAXES ON FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALL IN ALL...THE FORECAST HAS IMPROVED A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE REGION. 12Z GFS
CONTINUES TO PLUNGE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WHILE
ECMWF AND GGEM-NH ARE A BIT MORE RESTRAINED. THEY STILL GET THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH MY AREA...BUT WITH A BIT MORE PROBABILITY OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN PA THAN THE GFS. WILL LEAN WITH
THESE SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC SOLUTIONS AS THE GFS IS AGAIN
PROBABLY BREAKING THE PERSISTENT WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE DOWN TOO
QUICKLY. HEADING OUT TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CANADIAN GEM IS
THE MOST BULLISH WITH RETURNING THE WARM FRONT SUPPORTED BY A
MODEST UPPER LEVEL WAVE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE MUCH LESS SUPPORTIVE. WILL
MAINTAIN SOME LOW-MID CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER NY AND NEPA DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

TEMPS COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND THE SATURDAY COLD FRONT AND
SLOWLY REBOUND INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. BY MID AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING
CREATING INSTABILITY... TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME TSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE. STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS WILL BE VFR... SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TSRA MAY HAVE LOW END MVFR
VISBYS. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS WILL THERE BE FOG.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AS ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT FOLLOWING TODAY`S SHOWERS.
THUS... DECIDED TO ADD BR AT KAVP WHERE CONFIDENCE IS THE GREATEST
ATTM. WILL AMD IF NECESSARY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AND REMAIN UNDER 12
KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

.THU-FRI...VFR.
.SAT...VFR. SCT-NMRS TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.
.SUN...VFR. CHC SHOWERS WITH MVFR...MAINLY SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...KAH


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