Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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470
FXUS61 KBGM 221839
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
139 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Light lake effect snow showers will affect Northern New York
through this afternoon. Fair weather and cool temperatures are
expected through Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
140 PM update...
Light lake effect snow showers will continue through early
evening, though little in the way of accumulation is expected
due to the very dry boundary layer in place. West-northwest
winds will gust at 20 to 25 knots through sunset.

Persistent low stratus downwind of Lake Ontario will keep much
of our northern forecast area cloudy overnight.

Skies will break up Thursday morning, leading to a mainly sunny
but cool Thanksgiving afternoon. Another weak lake band is
forecast to set up over Northern Oneida County Thursday night.

955 AM update...
Light snow showers are tapering off and sliding east of our
forecast area. This trend will continue through the next few
hours, then a light lake band will set up for our northern
counties for this afternoon and evening. Little accumulation is
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday night
will be mainly dry for the region with the exception of the far
northern forecast area. Will continue with chance pops in
northern Oneida county for snow showers as a weak surface trough
moving through eastern Canada and westerly flow with
temperatures cold enough for lake enhancement could produce a
few snow showers. Any snow accumulation would be less than one
inch. Lows will range in the middle 20s to around 30.

Friday...Brief upper level ridging and surface high pressure in
the Delmarva area will bring the region a moderating southwest
flow along with partly to mostly sunny skies. Any flurries in
northern Oneida county will end by mid morning. Highs will
range in the middle to upper 40s.

Friday night...Upper level trough will move into the eastern
Great Lake as the surface cold front reaches central Ohio by
Saturday morning. Model trend has been to slow this front down
so backed off on pops with dry weather through midnight then
just chance/slight chance pops in the western/northern forecast
area. This activity would fall as rain showers as temperatures
aloft and at the surface remain above freezing. Overnight lows
will range in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A progressive pattern continues across the CONUS through the
extended period with models in fair agreement. In general an
upper level trough will move through the northeast over the
weekend with upper level ridging early this week as another
system moves into the Rockies and the southeast ridge strengthens.

Cold front will move through the area on Saturday with chance to
low likely pops advertised. Precipitation will fall as rain
showers with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s. This is
more of a high pop low rainfall forecast as boundary has limited
moisture. Saturday night, upper level trough axis moves through
as cold air advection drops temperatures enough by mid evening
for lake effect snow showers. Model soundings indicate a 290/300
flow within the steering layer as temperatures at 850mb fall
briefly to -12C. Will continue with likely pops southeast of
Lake Ontario where snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are
possible. By Sunday the low level flow veers to a more 320 flow
which would target the area along the southern shore and into
the Finger Lakes region. Will continue with likely pops here but
decreasing moisture and shorter fetch will limit accumulations.
The lake effect snow showers will decrease Sunday night as
temperatures at 850mb start warming and airmass dries further.
Winds will back slightly with axis of the most persistent snow
showers shifting east. By Monday any remaining flurries will
end by late morning as upper level flow becomes zonal and a
moderating southwest surface flow develops. Tuesday will be dry
and mild with surface high pressure off the mid Atlantic coast.

In general temperatures will run about 5 degrees below normal
after the cold front passes on Saturday then by early next week
temperatures will moderate to 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will slowly improve to VFR late this afternoon or
early this evening as lake effect snow showers begin to
dissipate. MVFR conditions will be most persistent near SYR,
ITH, and RME, where the lakes will keep snow showers and low
stratus over the terminals.

Light winds and VFR conditions are forecast for Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...VFR.

Saturday...Possible restrictions in rain showers.

Saturday night through Sunday...Lake effect snow showers causing
restrictions, especially for KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...DJP



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