Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 270552
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
152 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer like warmth will continue, over the next several days.
Although much of the time looks rain free, hit and miss afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, are possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
945 PM update...The limited convection that was over the region
earlier this evening has weakened more with the loss of diurnal
heating. Will continue with isolated showers primarily I81 east
overnight but removed the mention of thunder as instability/forcing
is lacking.

previous disc...
A few very isltd shwrs have dvlps this aftn, but far less than
indicated by the shrt term meso models. Part of the reason is the
lrg amt mid and hi lvl clds limiting the htg. Upr lvl rdgg conts
to be quite strong as well. In any event, we will cont with
chance pops this aftn into the eve, but keeps pops blo what models
have indicated. Ovrngt, psblty of pcpn slowly drops as we lose
htg. Some lgt fog psbl but with limited cvrg, have not included in
the grids attm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rdgg locked in place over the fcst area thru the shrt term. Models
cont to insist that conv will flair in the aftns with htg, and
there is plenty of energy avbl, esp on the NAM. Hwvr, air remains
rather dry, and with mid lvl wrmg, any conv shd be very isltd, and
more likely north and west of the fcst area.

Earlier in the week, GFS,ECMWF showed a backdoor cold fnt driving
wwrd across the fcst area. This feature has weakened in time as
the rdg has and will remain locked in place. Ely flow will remain
much clsr to the cst.

Otr feature is the dvlpg ptnl tropical system off the se cst. This
ptnl low is very slow mvg and shd remain well south of the area
thru the shrt term at least.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 pm Thursday update...

Upper ridge at start becomes a weak trof Tuesday then back to a
ridge Wednesday night. Temperatures remain above normal
throughout. Models in decent agreement and used a blend of the
Superblend and WPCguide. Little change from previous.

On Monday a cold front will increase the forcing and upped the
pops to likely. After that mainly dry until at least Thursday. A
chance Thursday with poor model agreement. Next system may hold
off until Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR/unrestricted conditions can be expected throughout the period.

The potential "flies in the ointment" could be a brief shower
impacting KAVP early this morning (08-12z), with possible
restrictions. Also, isolated showers/thunderstorms are expected
again this afternoon (mostly after 18z). In either case, though,
fairly low probability of occurrence at any one site precludes its
mention in the terminal forecasts.

Light/variable winds early this morning, will become W-SW at 8-10
kt later today. Winds should become light again this evening
(after 00z Sat).

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Tuesday...Mostly VFR. Afternoon-evening TSRA
possible any day with brief restrictions, but best chance will be
Sunday- Monday. Also early morning VIS could be reduced in the
moist air mass to MVFR in haze-fog, especially valley site KELM,
which could get have brief lower restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MLJ/MDP



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