Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 232329
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
729 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and dry conditions will continue through the weekend with
lots of sunshine. A storm system will start to impact the
northeast early Monday morning. A cold front will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to the region mostly Monday afternoon
and evening. High pressure will build back over the region on
Tuesday ending the chances for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 pm update...
A few storms lingering from the Mohawk Valley northward to the Tug
Hill Plateau this evening...with a rapid decrease in intensity
noted on radar. This trend will continue this evening with
conditions remaining quiet into Sunday. No major changes made to
the forecast at this point.

2 PM update...

Temperatures have rebounded back into the upper 80s and lower 90s
this afternoon. A lake shadow is keeping SYR cooler. Clear to
partly cloudy skies. Questions the next few hours with convection
over eastern Lake Ontario diving sse. Good elevated core with in
cloud lightning on lead cell half hour north of Oswego. This with
a decent short wave and secondary cold front. Added pops to
Onondaga Madison and Otsego until 00z. Expect thunderstorm to
weaken as it moves into the drier air over the land. Low level
instability is good though so lift continues.

Tonight skies will clear. High pressure builds in late tonight.
Some fog possible but boundary layer winds still strong. Best
chance will be in the river valleys of the Chemung basin closer to
the high. Low temperatures will fall into the 50s and lower 60s
with the dry air. Still several degrees over the crossover
temperature.

The high will be over the area Sunday. This will keep the area
dry and sunny with light winds. With WAA high temperatures will
again be in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Warm advection sets up for Sunday night in advance of next system.
Lead shortwave energy with this system may bring some scattered
showers or storms overnight into early Monday..mainly over central
NY. Overnight lows will be very mild due to SW flow bringing in
the warm/humid airmass with most areas not dropping below the
upper 60s to low 70s.

For Monday, scattered showers/storms may be ongoing to start the
day due to lead shortwave energy. This may act to hinder
destabilization later in the day. Still expect more widespread
showers/storms to develop in the afternoon as main cold front
approaches along with stronger forcing aloft. Forecast models
suggest potential of ML CAPES to reach 1000-2000+ j/kg with deep
layer shear initially 20-30 knots increasing to 30-40 knots by
late day. As alluded to above, still some uncertainty as to just
how unstable conditions will get due to cloud cover and also if
best instability can align with the strongest shear/forcing. Thus,
potential exists for severe storms to occur during the
afternoon/early evening however confidence currently not high. The
other big story for Monday will be temps in the 80s to near 90
along with oppressive humidity. This will result in heat indices
in the low to mid 90s from the Southern Tier into NE PA.

Showers and storms will diminish Monday evening with the cold
frontal passage gradually bringing in a less humid airmass by
Tuesday. Tuesday will feature mainly sunny skies and seasonally
warm temperatures with less humidity as high pressure moves in.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will bring continuing seasonally warm temperatures
with mainly sunny skies and fairly comfortable humidity levels through
midweek. Forecast models begin to diverge as far as forecast
details for late in the week into next weekend however in the big
picture, upper level troughiness developing over eastern Canada
will support increasing chances for showers/storms over the area by
late week into next weekend. The end of the forecast period will
also tend toward slightly cooler daytime highs but warmer
overnight lows due to increasing clouds and low level dew points.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. There is a low
chance of patchy light fog in the valleys late tonight...but not
confident enough to put into TAFs. Otherwise skies remain mostly
clear with only a layer of high clouds moving in during the
afternoon hours Sunday.

Tonight winds dropping to light and variable or calm. Sunday
winds light from the N/NW.

OUTLOOK...

Sun night...VFR.

Mon and Mon eve...Showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR to MVFR.

Monday overnight to Thu...mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...BJT/TAC


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