Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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320
FXUS61 KBGM 222104
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
404 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow, or a wintry mix, ends by early evening, with mainly dry
weather overnight. A couple of more disturbances, are expected
to impact the region Friday, and into the weekend, with rain and
patches of freezing rain expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
400 PM Update...

The winter storm that has been affecting the area today is now
quickly exiting the area. This storm produced a period of heavy
snow along and north of the NY/PA border...with a messy wintry
mix of precipitation over the Northern Tier of PA and higher
Pocono mountains. Expect a period of light snow to linger east
of I-81 through about 5 or 6 PM in NY...with a mixture of light
rain, sleet and perhaps an isolated pocket of freezing rain for
NE PA also until 5 or 6 PM. After 6 PM much of the area will dry
out, but remain under mostly cloudy skies. Cannot completely
rule out some patchy drizzle or frz drizzle for the overnight
hours...especially over the higher terrain. Temperatures drop
down into the 20s tonight across all of Central NY...with upper
20s to around 30 in Northeast PA. These colder overnight lows
will set the stage for more freezing precipitation on Friday for
parts of the area. Temperatures aloft will warm well above
freezing Friday morning across the entire area...therefore
additional snow is not expected as the next weather system
approaches the area. Instead, precipitation is progged to move
into the area from SW to NE after 7am Friday in the form of
either rain or freezing rain...depending on surface temperatures.
The Finger Lakes, Central Souther Tier of NY and the NY Thruway
corridor should stay mainly all rain on Friday. Right now the
best chance for at least some light freezing rain and glazes of
ice are forecast to be along and east of a line from about
Towanda--Owego--Norwich and Cooperstown...including all of our
NE PA counties. Although any location in the above mentioned
area could see some freezing rain...the best potential for ice
accretion will be over the higher terrain. The Wyoming Valley
(including Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Pittston etc) could see very
light coatings of freezing rain early Friday morning...but
temperatures likely warm above freezing by late morning here.
Issued another winter weather advisory starting at 7 AM Friday
for the above mentioned areas for the freezing rain threat. The
Advisory will end at 2 PM Friday for Bradford, Susquehanna,
Broome, Tioga and Chenango...while areas further east in the
higher terrain of the Poconos, Catskills, Sullivan County and
Northern Oneida County may see pockets of freezing rain linger
into early Friday evening. The highest ice accumulations will be
found in these areas...where a tenth or two of accretion is
possible. Either way, for locations that do see freezing rain
plan on slippery conditions...including untreated roads and
sidewalks. High temperatures late Friday afternoon will be in
the mid-30s east...with lower 40s west. Precipitation tapers off
to just a few light showers Friday evening...with mostly dry
conditions expected for much of Friday night. Temperatures
remain elevated in a warm WSW flow regime. Most locations only
fall into the mid to upper 30s Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
330 pm update... As the above mentioned system exits well before
daybreak Saturday, more will follow on its heels for Saturday
afternoon, Saturday night, and into Sunday.

A couple of more short-waves are in the pipeline for CNY/NEPA
through the weekend, within the continued broad SW flow pattern
aloft. The main parent cyclone at the surface will track well to
our north and west over the weekend, through the upper Midwest,
and into eastern Canada. This will generally place CNY/NEPA on
the mild, rainy side of this system. Residual trapped cold air
near the surface, although expected to slowly erode with time,
may still be present enough for a brief period of freezing rain
across northern Oneida and the Catskills late Saturday. Even in
these areas, though, primarily rain is expected.

One thing to watch this weekend will be rainfall amounts over
time, plus added runoff from snowmelt. Since our main stem
rivers and smaller tributaries are already running high, this
will certainly be something we`ll monitor closely.

Once the surface occlusion goes through on Sunday, steadier rain
should taper off to more intermittent showers during the
afternoon, from west to east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
340 pm update... A quieter weather pattern is anticipated during
the first half of next week, before another storm system perhaps
impacts CNY/NEPA late in the week.

Broad high pressure at the surface and at least a temporary
deamplification of the height pattern aloft should lead to
mostly dry weather from Monday-Wednesday. A distinct lack of
arctic air over the eastern CONUS will also lead to above normal
temperatures, with highs mostly in the 40s.

Things get a little more interesting thereafter, as both the GFS
and EC hint at a potential slow moving east coast storm. Given
all the inherent uncertainty this far out, we`ve simply gone
with a chance of rain or snow, starting later Wednesday night-
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18z update... Conditions should gradually improve 21-23z, as
steadier rain, snow, or a wintry mix exits to the east.

However, even overnight, lower ceilings should be prevalent,
with plenty of trapped low-level moisture. This may well lead to
at least periodic below alternate or IFR cloud bases, along with
patchy fog, and even some drizzle/freezing drizzle.

Friday, steadier rain will overspread CNY/NEPA again from
15-18z. Temperatures may be cold enough initially for some
freezing rain at KBGM and KRME. Widespread below alternate-IFR
restrictions are anticipated.

Light surface winds through the overnight hours, will begin to
increase on Friday from the SE. In fact, we`ll have to watch for
LLWS conditions Friday morning, as a strong low-level jet
develops just above the surface.

Outlook...
Friday night through Sunday...Restrictions continue, with
steadier rain most likely to occur Friday evening, then again
later Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.

Monday-Tuesday...Improvement back to VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for
     PAZ040-043-044-047-048-072.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     PAZ038>040.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Friday for
     PAZ038-039.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for
     NYZ009-046-057-062.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NYZ015-
     022>025-044>046-055>057-062.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 2 PM EST Friday for
     NYZ045-055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...MLJ



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