Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 250605
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
205 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Tonight through Tuesday, light rain is moving north into the
region, as a weak storm center tracks up the eastern seaboard. A
few showers may linger into Wednesday morning, before drier
conditions develop by afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 pm update...
Minor changes to closer to current. Some light rain and
sprinkles has moved into Luzerne County pushing temps down under
cloudy skies. Clouds have moved well north into NY. Winds are
staying on the light side with slowly falling temperatures.
Upped pops in the morning for the Finger Lakes to line up with
Buffalo and models.

previous discussion...
Visible satellite imagery shows thicker higher clouds streaming
northeast across parts of northeast PA and southeast NY with
thinner cirrus farther north reaching the southern tier. GOES-16
imagery does show this higher thicker cloud cover slowly moving
north and in time as per model data will reach the PA-Ny border
by around 03z and northern NY by 09-12z.

These higher clouds were advancing northward in response to a
well-developing upper level low over Ga which will track east-
northeast tonight and Tuesday reaching the eastern NC coast.
Warm and moisture adevections will increase tonight over
northeast PA and central NY and spread light precipitation
northward. The low-levels were very dry at first so we expect
the onset of the rain will be delayed by a few hours vs radar
reflectivity projections.

The first batch of light rain reaches into northeast PA between
03z-06z. This precipitation will be light initially and blossoms
more between 12z and 15z as it reaches into northern NY as a
short wave from the central Plains intercepts it and enhances
the lift. The next more significant round of steady rain reaches
northeast PA by around 12-15z Tuesday and 15-18z across the
rest of central NY. The rain will taper to showers from west to
east late in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
245 pm update... Tuesday night into Wednesday, the coastal
system will weaken and drift out to sea. As a result, lingering
showers will gradually diminish from west-east.

Residual lower cloudiness into Wednesday morning, should begin
to break up by late morning-early afternoon, particularly west
of the Interstate 81 corridor. Since the above mentioned
disturbance has no real cool air associated with it, Wednesday
afternoon will be mild, with highs ranging from the lower 60s
over the higher terrain of the Poconos and Catskills, to around
70 degrees for our Finger Lakes and Lake Ontario plain counties.

Wednesday night should be rain-free, as we reside under a narrow
ridge axis, in between the departing coastal cyclone, and a very
slowly advancing cold front over the Ohio Valley. Given a weak
S-SE flow in the boundary layer, some of our models are bringing
a marine-type cloud layer into at least parts of NEPA and the
southern tier of NY late Wednesday night. Details are still
sketchy this far out, so we`ll have to wait on this for a better
consensus. For now, we`ll opt for partly-mostly cloudy skies in
far eastern areas, and clear-partly cloudy skies farther west,
with mild overnight lows ranging in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 pm update... On the large-scale, a trough will amplify over
the middle of the country this period, while an upper ridge
slowly builds over the western Atlantic. A resultant broad SW
flow aloft across CNY/NEPA will bring generally warmer
temperatures, along with perhaps unsettled conditions, as
mid-level short-waves are likely to be embedded.

As for the daily sensible weather, Thursday looks rain-free and
warm, as the cold front in the previous section remains well off
to the west during the daylight hours.

Thursday night into Friday, the above mentioned cold front will
track across CNY/NEPA while weakening. At least scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected, though.

Next weekend, the position of a W-E oriented surface boundary
will be key to our weather, with very warm temperatures likely
south of the front, and cooler, more showery conditions likely
to the north of it. For now, due to uncertainty, we`ve retained
a chance of showers both Saturday and Sunday, with
thunderstorms also possible by Sunday. As for temperatures,
we`ll go with daily highs in the 60s across our far northern
areas (southern Tug Hill and Mohawk Valley zones), with upper
70s-lower 80s down over NEPA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As the first wave of moisture and lift moves through the region
from south to north early this morning conditions will lower
into the low VFR category with unrestricted light showers
through mid morning. A stronger wave will lift up through the
region later this afternoon and produce widespread
MVFR/alternate required conditions in light rain. Early this
evening as this wave passes drizzle/fog and low ceiling will
result in widespread alternate required/IFR conditions.

East/southeast winds around 5-8 knots increasing this morning
to 8-12 knots with gusts 15-20 knots. Southeast winds this
evening around 5-8 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Wednesday night...VFR, other than a brief
restriction/shower still possible early morning for KBGM-KAVP.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday-Saturday...Restrictions possible, with at least
scattered showers anticipated along with a chance of thunder.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MLJ/TAC
NEAR TERM...DJN/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM


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