Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 300102
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
802 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS SENDING WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO
FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM EST UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... INCREASED
POPS OVER AREAS WHERE SNOW HAVE DEVELOPED AND MODIFIED TEMPS. SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE ADVANCED EAST AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY BEFORE A SECOND ROUND OF SNOW MOVES
THROUGH. STILL EXPECT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE READ PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH PRECIP SPREADING
EAST ACROSS NY. AT THIS POINT A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW IN THE CWA HAS
BEEN CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THERE IS A LOT OF
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP NOW AROUND BUFFALO WILL MOVE EAST WITH LIGHT SNOW MOVING
INTO REMAINING AREAS OF THE CWA TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME AS LOW LEVELS SATURATE.

EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA FROM
ONONDAGA EAST THROUGH ONEIDA COUNTIES...AS DYNAMICS WILL BE
STRONGEST HERE...AND THERE WILL ALSO BE ADDED OROGRAPHIC LIFT IN
THE TUG HILL PLATEAU REGION. NAM AND RAP SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY WELL SO LEANED FORECAST TOWARD THESE MODELS. THE LOW WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE
NW AND STARTING THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE. ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
QUICKLY FRIDAY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FALLING TEMPS
THROUGH THE DAY. MODERATE SW WINDS WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER NW WINDS
LATE TONIGHT AND CREATE DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW.

WITH A NW LL FLOW FRIDAY LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE USUAL
AREAS OF CENTRAL NY. CAA WILL INCREASE LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTN. AT THE SAME TIME THE INVERSION AND DENDRITE ZONE LOWER.
MULTI BAND LES COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA
FOR THE SYNOPTIC SNOW OF 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER 1 TO 4 INCHES OF LES FRIDAY. IN ADDITION WIND GUSTS TO 35
WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FRIDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, WE GENERALLY
EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM NE PA
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE... LINGERING MULTI-BAND LES ACRS CNY AND PA`S NRN
TIER FRI EVE...WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS THE CAPPING
INVERSION LWRS. ANOTHER LOCALIZED 1-2" MAY ACCUMULATE FRI NGT OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE UPR SUSQ/FINGER LKS RGNS IN CNY.

VERY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS ARE DEFINITELY A CONCERN FRI
NGT...WITH SFC WINDS ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDING...AND ACTUAL AIR TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 5 ABV TO 10 BLO RANGE. WE`LL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS SITN IN THE HWO...CITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WC
ADVSYS OR WRNGS IN LATER FCST UPDATES.

OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW FLRYS ON SAT...THE DAY SHOULD BE LARGELY
DRY...WITH BRIEF RIDGING AT THE SFC AND SOME S/WV RIDGING ALOFT
ACRS THE FA.

SAT NGT INTO SUN MRNG...A WEAK NRN STREAM S/WV AND SFC FRNT WILL
PUSH SWD THROUGH CNY/NE PA...ACCOMPANIED BY FLRYS AND SCTD LGT
SNOW SHWRS (LTL OR NO ACCUMS).

BY LATER SUN AFTN...WE MAY SEE SOME STEADIER LGT SNOW APPROACH OUR
FAR SWRN ZNS...ON THE OUTER EDGES OF THE NEXT S/WV AND FAST MOVG
SFC WV. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE FOLLOWING SXN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 PM UPDATE... MODEL DISAGREEMENT/INCONSISTENCY CONTS WITH THE
LATEST CYCLES REGARDING THE SUN NGT-MON STORM SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE EC/GFS HAVE TRENDED NWD SOMEWHAT AGN...NOW TRACKING
THE SFC LOW THROUGH VA AND SERN MD...AND BRINGING LGT SNOW AT
LEAST TO THE PA/NY BORDER...IF NOT INTO NY`S SRN TIER.
MEANWHILE...THE CAN GEM HAS NOW GONE MUCH FARTHER S...TAKING THE
SFC WV THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...WITH LTL OR NO SNOWFALL FOR OUR FA.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...THE EXPECTATION OF FURTHER MODEL
WAFFLING...AND ALSO THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING S/WV ENERGY IS
NOW JUST APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WE`LL
SIMPLY MAKE VERY SMALL INCREMENTAL CHGS ATTM...JUST EASING POPS
UPWARD AGN TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST EC/GFS TRENDS. THIS RESULTS
IN LIKELY POPS FOR OUR FAR SRN ZNS SUN NGT (BACK DOWN TO CHC BY
MON)...AND CHC POPS THROUGHOUT THIS PD FOR OUR NY SRN TIER CNTYS.
ALTHOUGH...STRICTLY SPEAKING...WE`RE CURRENTLY INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER PTNS OF NE PA...THIS WILL
CERTAINLY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITN.

TUE INTO WED LOOK QUIETER...BUT VERY COLD...WITH ONLY SOME FLRYS
FORESEEN AT WORST.

BY WED NGT AND THU...OUR NEXT REINFORCING COLD FRNT AND NRN STREAM
S/WV APPROACH...BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS. THE EC IS ALSO
SHOWING THE PSBLTY THAT SOME SRN STREAM MOISTURE GETS INCORPORATED
INTO THE SYSTEM. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT ALL OF THESE FINE
DETAILS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST WITH SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BUT A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AT FIRST. FOLLOWED
BY A LULL SOUTHERN TERMINALS, MORE SNOW MOVES IN OVERNIGHT.

WENT WITH PERIODS OF IFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TAKING AWHILE TO SATURATE. OVERALL THOUGH
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MORE IFR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON,
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL NY TERMINALS. WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY, A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SNOWS WITH IFR VSBYS
ESPECIALLY TO KSYR, AND PERHAPS KITH AND KBGM FROM TIME TO TIME.
CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIND SHEAR
THIS EVENING AS WINDS NEAR 2000 FT WILL BE INCREASING TO 40+
KNOTS.

SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS EARLY TONIGHT VEERING INTO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW SHWRS...SPCLY IN
THE EVE OVER NORTHERN AREAS

SAT...SAT NGT...AND MOST OF SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT  MON...PSBL RESTRICTIONS (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-
     016>018-036-037-044>046.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PCF
NEAR TERM...KAH/PCF
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN






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