Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 020837
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
337 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FOG. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG IN
SOME AREAS. FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
AND IN SOME SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS.

OTHERWISE...SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. SEASONAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 79 F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONTINUED VERY WARM THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE PERSISTS INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST A
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS AND IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS/EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE MOVES
EASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ALONG AND EAST OF THE
TROUGH...WHILE BEHIND THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 80S.

THE THERMAL RIDGE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND:
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CONTINUE TO SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
IMPULSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL
RESULT IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER. EXPECTED HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 70S
NORTHWEST TO 80S SOUTH CENTRAL...AND HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE
70S. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME PERIOD (FRIDAY-SUNDAY) WILL SEE GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY...WITH COOL
CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT HIGHS ON LABOR DAY MONDAY IN THE MID 60S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT THEREAFTER...AND THE FORECAST CONSENSUS IS
MAINLY DRY WITH A SLOW TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. KJMS AND KBIS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED...WITH IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. KMOT AND KDIK MAY BE
ON THE FRINGE OF THE POTENTIAL FOG BANK. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF
THROUGH THE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...AC



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