Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 282118
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE PRECIP TYPES...AND
COVERAGE AS ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ND. RADAR SHOWS
SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE WEST UNDER WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN...THOUGH NO REPORTS OF PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND. HAVE
CONTINUED LOW POPS FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH THE EVENING.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE LOW REACHES CENTRAL ND BY 12Z SAT WITH ARCTIC
AIR RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM WERE
GENERALLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY TO LIKELY TOWARD WEST CENTRAL ND.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE COLD AIR
RAPIDLY CHANGES PRECIP TYPE TO ALL SNOW. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF POST FRONTAL PRECIP FOCUSED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP IS IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND 120 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET PLACING THAT REGION IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
JET. REGARDLESS...QPF AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE...MAINLY UNDER
.1 INCH LIQUID. WPC SNOW FORECAST HAS PUSHED BEST MEASURABLE SNOW
NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH OUR FORECAST GENERATING ONLY
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING
SNOW. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WIND CHILLS WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH 25 BELOW ZERO LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WILL ISSUE SPS TO ADDRESS THE VARIOUS ELEMENTS FOR
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST IS COLD TEMPERATURES
AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION. WIND CHILL HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS WIND CHILLS AROUND 30
BELOW ARE POSSIBLE. SOME RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD SPARK
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM LOOKS RATHER DRY. AN ARCTIC 1040MB HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD
MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT/MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE 20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH. THANKFULLY THIS ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND WAA TAKES HOLD
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST INCLUDING
KISN...KMOT AND KJMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT KDIK AND KBIS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AND
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. ANY FREEZING RAIN
SHOULD BE OF SHORT DURATION WITH A RAPID CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JNS








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.