Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 260246

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
946 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017


Issued at 946 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Only change was to adjust POPs a bit based on latest radar imagery
and for collaboration purposed.

UPDATE Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Upper level low will lift towards and across North Dakota over the
next 24 hours. As this occurs at the very minimum expect isolated
light showers through tonight across my west and central. Models
continue to key in on an enhanced area of showers due in part to
upper level jet dynamics, from across eastern SD into southeastern
ND including the James River Valley developing by mid evening and
persisting through the night. Will maintain elevated POPs here
and will increase/decrease as needed. Other change was to expand
patchy fog to include all of western ND based on latest high res
models runs and where clouds may scatter out overnight allowing
for some fog.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Current surface analysis places high pressure stretching across
Manitoba into the northern plains. Upper level analysis places
broad trough from the four corners region up through the central
Rockies, with a compact low spinning over southeast Montana. Some
showers continue to lift through western into south central North
Dakota with this system.

For later this afternoon into this evening...aforementioned
compact low will head into North Dakota and gradually open up as a
variety of weak waves work around it. This will keep shower
chances going over various parts of the area this evening. RAP &
HRRR continue to indicate possibility of some fog over
southern/western portions of the area late tonight, so have added
the mention of patchy fog.

On Tuesday...low precipitation chances linger into Tuesday,
diminishing later in the day as the wave moves easterly.
Temperatures remain on the cool side.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Quiet weather expected through the week as ridge builds into the
region, bringing dry conditions and a return to seasonal
temperatures. Ridge axis expected to push to the east for the
later part of the weekend bringing a return of precipiation
chances into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)

Issued at 639 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Low VFR to Mvfr cigs for all terminals through at least mid
morning Tuesday. Not sold on IFR cigs tonight but will monitor
and amend as needed. Isold -shra at times through the period.
Improvements to low vfr commence after 16z Tuesday.




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