409
FXUS63 KBIS 050543
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1243 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southeast winds gusting to 50 mph on Sunday over western and
  parts of south central North Dakota. The stronger winds may
  continue into Monday spreading east.

- Chances for rain return late Sunday evening and continue
  through the work week. The wettest period will be Monday
  through Tuesday when most of western and central North Dakota
  will see high chances (80 to 100 percent) of rain.

- Mild temperatures Sunday, with a modest cool down for the
  upcoming work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

No significant changes are needed for this update. Current
observations and trends were blended into the forecast. High
clouds are beginning to spread in from the west.

UPDATE
Issued at 940 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

No changes to the forecast with this product issuance. Clouds
continue to dissipate as expected, with some high clouds moving
into western ND this evening.

UPDATE
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

The forecast for tonight remains on track. Diurnally driven
clouds will continue to dissipate early to mid evening, along
with any lingering showers diminishing between now and 02Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Current surface analysis places low over northeast Ontario with
high over the central plains. Upper level analysis places low
over southern Hudson Bay, with secondary low over southern
Saskatchewan. The slightly cyclonic flow with a few waves moving
through have resulted in cloud cover over the area and a few
light showers. A much larger upper low remains off the west
coast, which will be our main weather-maker this coming week.

For the rest of the day into tonight, clouds and any lingering
light showers should dissipate early this evening with mainly
clear skies developing.

On Sunday, upper low does its eastward progression over the
western CONUS, with a ridge ahead of it pushing over our area.
This will result in quiet weather, with mild temperatures. In
the meantime, an elongated low develops to the east of the
northern/central Rockies in response to the approaching upper
features, with a high over the midwest. This will result in a
tightening pressure gradient over the area, especially over
western parts of North Dakota. The strongest winds gusting to 50
mph are mainly expected west of the Missouri River into far
northwest North Dakota, thus a Wind Advisory has been issued.

On Sunday Night, upper low pushes over the northern/central
Rockies with rain chances starting to push west to east over our
area. Winds will continue into the evening, possibly through the
overnight. Have decided to run aforementioned wind advisory
until midnight CDT, but this can be re-evaluated.

On Monday, low continues its push into the northern plains, with
the stronger winds focusing more on central/eastern North
Dakota. Widespread rain is expected, with some thunderstorms
given the modest instability but elevated shear. Thus, can not
rule out a stronger storm possibly developing. Models still
showing the possibility of a dry slot occurring, but continue
to show some disagreement on exactly where this will occur.
Therefore, some question does remain on total amounts as this
feature will be a key player.

Low lingers over the area through mid-week keeping rain chances
in the forecast before gradually washing out later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Southeast winds will become strong across the western half of
North Dakota Sunday afternoon and evening, with sustained speeds
around 20-30 kts and gusts as high as 30-40 kts. A brief period
of low level wind shear will impact KDIK early Sunday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to
midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for NDZ001-009-010-017>020-
031>034-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Hollan
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Hollan