Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271735
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

No significant changes to the going forecast other than a few
minor tweaks to sky cover and pops.

UPDATE Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

For the late morning update we lowered pops and sky cover over
central ND. also bumped up temperatures just a bit over the far
eastern CWA. Earlier morning convection west of the Missouri has
dissipated. Latest mesoscale models show possibly an isolated
shower or thunderstorm over far eastern portion of the CWA through
the early afternoon, but better chance remains east of the
forecast area. Therefore limited afternoon pops to the southeast
portion of the cwa, from Jamestown to Oakes. Hourly temperatures
over the far eastern CWA are running a bit above forecast so
bumped the far east up a couple of degrees. Otherwise temperatures
seem reasonable. Did lower sky cover a bit over the central and
eastern portion of the CWA this afternoon. Updated text products
will be out shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 834 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Quick update for PoPs/Sky/Wx based on latest radar/satellite
analysis. Latest satellite analysis shows shortwave trough over
central ND. Isolated thundershowers moving across Morton County.
Another area of light showers...possibly not reaching the ground
moving from Mchenry to Pierce county. More organized convection is
from the far southern James River Valley into east central ND.
This activity is currently moving out of the JRV but with surface
low situated near Wishek, we could still see additional
development here later this morning through early afternoon. Thus
kept some small pops through early afternoon here. Otherwise no
significant changes.

UPDATE
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Main update with this forecast issuance was to increase POPs over
my southeast. Well organized band of showers/isolated
thunderstorms now along a Low Level Jet axis. Expect this to
continue for another couple of hours then start to move east
and/or dissipate.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)

Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be spotty
chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning
across the region, then again this afternoon east. Another chance
at storms now possible Sunday aft/eve north central and east.

Currently...Longwave trough swinging into the Northern Plains
with the trough axis over western North Dakota. High res models
performing rather well, picking up on the broken line of
convection just ahead of the trough axis, and another area in the
James River Valley where scattered showers developed the past
couple hours. A few hundred Joules of MUCAPE available though
little wind shear for any organized convection this morning.

Upper level trough axis will be over the central Dakotas by 12Z
this morning, then moves off to our east Saturday afternoon.
Shower and thunderstorms chances will continue along to ahead of
this feature this morning and afternoon. A dry southwest mid
level flow along with decrease in forcing in the trough`s wake
will end precipitation chances from west to east during the day.

Marginal risk for severe storms across the James River Valley
today. High res models showing organized convection 17-19Z
developing in my far southeast (Stutsman, LaMoure, Dickey
Counties) and exiting my area by 21Z. This seems reasonable so
followed suite. Will mention in the HWO the possibility for a
stronger storm or two for that area. Dry tonight.

Zonal flow develops behind the trough though a rather robust S/WV
trough will be pushing east across southern Canada on Sunday.
Associated surface trough across the high plains Sunday morning
will develop a southerly flow increasing WAA into the area along
with decent moisture advection into the eastern Dakotas. Highs
Sunday will warm well into the 80s across the state with low 90s
probable more than a few locations west and central. Models are
now keying in on convection developing across north central ND
Sunday afternoon as the trough moves east, then extending south
through the James River Valley with time into the evening where
models portray the best boundary layer moisture and instability.
Most favorable area for storms should be north central and east
into the Turtle Mountains near the Canadian S/WV so painted the
higher POPs there.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Warm and dry conditions early next week followed by an
increasingly active pattern towards the end of the week will
highlight the extended forecast.

Quasi-zonal flow continues Monday with surface high pressure
keeping the forecast warm and dry. A slowly amplifying broad
upper ridge is still advertised towards the middle of the week so
will maintain warm temperatures in the forecast. Ridge running
impulses embedded in the flow will bring a chance of
thunderstorms to the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night and
again Wed/Wed night though elevated uncertainty.

Models bring a strong upper level trough into western North
America towards the end of the week so expect an active period
developing as this feature nudges the ridge east resulting in
southwest flow aloft over our region Thursday-Friday and possibly
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016

VFR weather forecast for TAF sites.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JPM



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