Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 011507
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1007 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS TO MEET THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS. A NICE AFTERNOON SETTING UP FOR THE REGION. SKY
CONDITIONS WERE ADJUSTED TO BRING PERCENTAGES UP ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST PER THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE W.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE NEAR CAPE COD LATE THIS
EVENING AND DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE
OVERNIGHT ENROUTE TO HALIFAX. THE FORECAST AREA WILL RECEIVE A
GLANCING BLOW FROM THE STORM WITH THE BEST QPF ALONG THE
WASHINGTON COUNTY COAST WHERE THREE- TENTHS OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED. WITH SNOW-WATER RATIOS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 1 OR
HIGHER...THIS TRANSLATES TO A NARROW SWATH OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE
FOR HARD-HIT MACHIAS AND EASTPORT AS WELL AS MDI. AMOUNTS WILL
TAPER TO THE NORTH SUCH JUST AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR FORT KENT AND
MADAWASKA. WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 4 INCHES...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES UNTIL LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE STATE TUESDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO
END LATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. WILL USE A MODEL
CONSENSUS APPROACH AND BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF FOR POP...
SKY AND QPF. HAVE USE THE OFFICE SNOW FROM THICKNESS TOOL FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL USE THE NAM12 FOR WINDS. FOR TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT HAVE USED THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE LOW. COLD AIR
WILL RETURN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. WILL USE THE SUPER BLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR TODAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. IFR TONIGHT
IN SNOW FOR ALL SITES. LIFR POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT
BGR AND BHB.

SHORT TERM:
EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO TRANSITION TO VFR MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING IN THE
OUTER WATERS THEN DECREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE GALE
WATCH OUT...HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CREATE A SECOND HEADLINE.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE MONDAY WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
DEPENDENT ON FETCH DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE WILL
BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR
WAVE GRIDS THROUGH TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE WW III.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW/MIGNONE


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