Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 282314
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
614 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND HAS CROSSED THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE AREAS
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR WITH A WIND SHIFT AND A SNOW SHOWER. THE LAST
OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD DIE OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN PENOBSCOT AND SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTIES WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BY MORNING THE COLDEST IN ABOUT A WEEK.
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TO THE
LOW 20S IN THE BANGOR AREA. THE ARCTIC FRONT DOES NOT CROSS THE
AREA UNTIL MONDAY MORNING...SO THE REAL BITTERLY COLD TEMPS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MON NIGHT. ONLY MINOR UPDATES BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
WAS TO ADD IN A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR STRING OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ARE ABOUT TO COME TO AN ABRUPT END THANKS TO A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS CROSSING THE REGION. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY COOLER AIR LATER TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE AND THE LOW TO
MID 20S DOWNEAST. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OTHERWISE EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND MAINLY CLEAR DOWN EAST
TONIGHT.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THINK WE WILL SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
DURING MONDAY MORNING AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SQUALLS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY
WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 DOWN
EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY LARGE AND VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS THE
NATION WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND FRIGID WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND TEENS DOWNEAST. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO SPRAWL ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL
PULL A WEAK WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. A COLD FRONT TRAILING A SMALL LOW IN EASTERN
CANADA WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, LIKELY
BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD ARCTIC AIR ON FRIDAY AS A NEW HIGH
QUICKLY SLIDES IN FROM WESTERN CANADA AND MERGES WITH THE LARGE
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES, OUR ATTENTION
TURNS TO A LARGE STORM SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
RAPIDLY APPROACHING ON SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY EVENING AS IT SPREADS SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION, CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DOWNEAST. LONG
RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST, BUT IT REMAIN
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER OR NOT THIS SECONDARY WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY
ENOUGH TO PREVENT WARM AIR FROM SURGING NORTH AND CHANGING
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SLEET, FREEZING RAIN THEN PLAIN RAIN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS LIKELY DOWNEAST. A QUICK
AND STRONG REDEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE WOULD ALLOW
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY SNOW OVER THE NORTH WITH
COLD AIR HELD IN PLACE. HOWEVER, THE ABSENCE OF STRONG
REDEVELOPMENT WOULD ALLOW THE WARM AIR TO SURGE NORTH TURNING
PRECIPITATION OVER TO SLEET, FREEZING RAIN THEN POSSIBLY PLAIN
RAIN ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST A CHANGE TO RAIN
DOWNEAST AND A CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS ALL BUT
THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING AND WILL
QUICKLY MOVE AWAY ON SUNDAY AS COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: AREAS OF MVFR EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IFR IN THE BAND
OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT IS CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTH. OTHERWISE VFR
TONIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL IS POSSIBLE
EARLY MONDAY WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS ESPECIALLY KPQI/KHUL. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO
VFR LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.


SHORT TERM:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AS WEAK FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH. PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TERM:
AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN GUSTY WINDS FROM THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/DUDA
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/DUDA/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/DUDA/BLOOMER


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