Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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685
FXUS61 KCAR 060522
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1222 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure across the Gulf of Maine will move southeast
overnight. High pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday
and crest over the area Tuesday night. A weak area of low pressure
will track to our northwest Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:24 AM Update...A surface trough along the coast will shift out
the area overnight with light snow coming to an end within the
next few hours. Any add`l accums will be less than an inch. The
ongoing forecast handles this well with no updates at this time.

Previous Discussion...
Tuesday will remain mostly to partly cloudy over the north where
low stratus is likely to linger. Downeast, however, skies should
become mostly clear by late in the day on Tuesday as high pressure
builds in. Winds will be light on Tuesday with high pressure
building over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some moderation in the airmass expected this term with some snow
showers or light snow.

High pres is expected to slide to the e Tuesday night w/waa
underway overnight w/some high cloudiness moving in. A setup such
as this one being advertised can lead to some colder temps than
what the guidance is touting especially in the low lying areas.
Colder air in the blyr can get trapped beneath the developing llvl
inversion. Therefore, decided to undercut overnight lows Tuesday
night by a few degrees given this potential. Low pres moving
across James Bay in Canada will bring a warm front across the
region during the day on Wednesday. LLVL convergence combined
w/some mid level forcing will lead to a period of light snow
breaking out during the day. The best support will be across the w
and nw region of the CWA. Any snow accumulation expected to be an
inch or less w/this feature. The associated cold front is forecast
to make its move toward the region from Canada later Wednesday
night into Thursday. A pre-frontal trof is forecast to slide
across the region in advance of the cold front on Thursday setting
off some snow showers. The actual cold front is shown by the the
NAM/GFS and ECMWF to bring a round of heavier snow showers or
perhaps snow squalls w/caa. The NAM is most prominent w/the snow
squall potential for late Thursday afternoon into the evening.
Confidence on this potential is low and attm, decided to stay
w/snow showers for the wx element an hold w/40% pops. AOA normal
temps expected for Thursday before the caa kicks in.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Much colder air expected later this week into the weekend.

A secondary cold front and its associated upper trof expected to
slide across the region on Friday with some more snow showers and
a decent nw wind. Something to be noted here is the cold nw flow
coming off the open St. Lawrence on Friday which would lead to
some streamers of snow especially across the nw and St. John
Valley and Allagash region. Daytime temps will be near normal for
early December w/readings dropping off by 4 pm.

The weekend will be a cold one as a piece of very cold arctic air
moves into the region from Canada. We are talking below normal
temperatures right through Sunday w/daytime temps not getting out
of the teems across the northern 1/2 of the CWA while central and
downeast areas only see readings in the lower/mid 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions, ranging from VFR to IFR, will
occur across the region overnight. VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected
Tuesday morning, with VFR conditions Tuesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions expected later Tuesday night into
Wednesday w/snow showers or light snow. A period of MVFR for all
the terminals on Wednesday w/a continuation of snow showers or
light snow. Conditions are forecast to drop back to IFR especially
w/the cigs by Thursday morning w/a cold front set to move across
the region. Some improvement to MVFR by later Thursday night
across the northern terminals, but snow showers still a threat.
KBGR and KBHB look to improve to VFR right into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind/seas are generally expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels overnight through Tuesday. However, a few
wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels late tonight
into early Tuesday. Visibilities will be reduced in light
rain/snow tonight.

SHORT TERM: Pretty quiet into Thursday night w/sw winds of 10 kt
or so becoming w. Wave heights will averaging 2-3 ft. Winds are
expected to increase on Friday and become nw a cold front slide
across the waters. Conditions have the potential to hit SCA
criteria of a solid 25 kts w/gust potential to 30+ kts. Much
colder air moving across the rather warm Gulf of Maine waters
could allow for some freezing spray especially Friday night into
Saturday morning. The offshore winds will keeps wave heights down
to 3-4 ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Near Term...Bloomer/CB
Short Term...Hewitt
Long Term...Hewitt
Aviation...Bloomer/CB/Hewitt
Marine...Bloomer/CB/Hewitt



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