Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 260645
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
245 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD
THE OPEN ATLANTIC TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TODAY WHILE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY CANADA. ALL IN
ALL ONE MORE FAIR WEATHER DAY CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE REGION COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

TONIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE NEXT MORE POTENT SHORT
WAVE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER LATE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE START OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RAINY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MARCHES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC, AN
OCCLUDED FRONT IN TOW. THIS FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES
THE PINE TREE STATE AS A SERIES OF LOWS DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THE EXACT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND THE LOWS IS STILL UNCERTAIN,
BUT SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY AROUND, SO CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, BOTH DAYS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL; MOST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AT SOME POINT DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME; EXACTLY WHEN IS NOT WELL AGREED UPON BY THE LONGER RANGE
FORECAST MODELS. THEREAFTER, THE REGION LOOKS TO BE UNDER A VERY
NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE THIS WOULD ARGUE FOR
DRY WEATHER, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS WE WILL
REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY.
AFTER A COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK, WE`LL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AS SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY IMPROVE BY TUESDAY,
THOUGH AT LEAST OCCASIONAL MVFR COULD STILL STRIKE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS. VFR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO TAKE
HOLD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SOUTH FLOW IS PROGGED TO INCREASE MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THIS WOULD ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD.
WHILE WNAWAVE LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE (8-10 FT), WAVES AROUND 6 FEET
SEEM REASONABLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...DUDA/HASTINGS
MARINE...DUDA/HASTINGS








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