Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 222300
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
609 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach from the west this evening. The low
will track to our north tonight into Wednesday as it brings a
cold front across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
610 PM Update...
Some mid level dry air has worked its way into northern Maine n
of the Houlton-Millinocket region as dewpoints have dropped back
into the lower 60s. From Houlton-Millinocket down through the
Downeast region, dewpoints were into the mid/upper 60s. Regional
radar data showed an area of showers and embedded convection
apchg western areas. Activity appears to weaken as it runs into a
more stable airmass further e for one and mid level lapse rates have
dropped off as well. Best chance of any stronger storms appears to
be across our sw areas such as Piscataquis County. As stated by the
daycrew, strong shear is in place but the llvl instability is
lacking. Any convection appears to be elevated. Strong wind gusts
will remain a risk later this evening into the overnight hrs w/very
heavy rainfall.

Fog making its way onto the coast and pushing further n. Adjusted
things to go w/areas of fog into the evening. Hrly
temps/dewpoints were adjusted to fit the latest conditions.

Previous Discussion...
Area is in the warm sector this evening as deepening sfc low
exists south of James Bay. Cdfnt extends from low back to the
southwest acrs the Great Lks. Strong line of convection
currently racing thru NY state into nrn New England ahead of
strong s/wv. Hires models showing s/wv wl lkly shear itself out
as it heads east into the CWA tonight. Expect that convection wl
lkly survive but strong-svr threat is minimal at this time.
Instability wl be waning with frcg being less than optimal with
cdfnt rmng well back to the west and marginal lapse rates. 50kts
H7 mb speed max wl mv in tonight and expect that any storm wl
hv the potential to produce gusty winds, thus hv retained gusty
wind mention in the grids. With PW values 2+ inches and dwpts up
into the m/u 60s tonight, along with significant warm cld
depths, hv contd mention of locally hvy rainfall out of any
storms.

Expect patchy fog to dvlp ovr CWA late tonight ahd of cdfnt. Fropa
occurs in the morning with dry air following in its wake. Max
temps Wed wl lkly range 3-5 degrees colder than Tue with gusty
west winds expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cooler air behind the front arrives very gradually Wednesday
and it will be cooler and less humid Wednesday night with lows
mostly in the lower 50s. The cool Canadian air mass will be in
place for Thursday with highs ranging from the lower 70s north
to upper 70s for Bangor. The coast will also be in the mid to
upper 70s with the offshore flow. Dew points will be much more
comfortable with readings in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Some cu
fields will be possible north of Houlton with the NW flow. On
Thursday night, the quiet and cool pattern continues with
persistent upper level troughing and surface high pressure over
the Great Lakes. The trend towards lower temperatures and dew
points will continue with Thursday night lows in the 40s to near
50F. Dew points will also drop into the 40s for the entire area
by Friday. Friday`s highs will only reach the upper 60s to lower
70s. Expect greater cumulus and stratocu coverage for Friday
afternoon...especially in northern zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the period Friday night through Tuesday night, a large dome
of high pressure will slowly slide from the Great Lakes region
towards Maine. Until the ridge crests over the area later
Sunday, cumulus and stratocu fields in the a north to northwest
flow will be a factor during the day...mostly in northern zones.
With an upper trough over the area, there is some concern about
a few light showers Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The best chance
for any showers currently appears to be later Friday night into
Saturday afternoon. These showers will likely top out at H700,
produce little precipitation and be mostly in northern zones.
The entire period will be cool with highs in the 60s and 70s and
lows in the 40s to lower 50s. The coolest day will be Saturday
with a slow warming trend into Tuesday. Low dew points in the
40s and lower 50s will continue during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals initially will give way to MVFR
after 02z tonight across the north in showers and possibly
-tsra. Expect improvement to MVFR after 15z Wed. HUL may experience
 IFR between 09z and 14z in low-level moisture bhnd departing
 cdfnt.

At BGR expect MVFR after 03z and IFR between 07z and 13z. BHB
will likely see low MVFR deck move in by 19Z as stratus moves in
from the ocean. LIFR expected later tonight and rmn thru 03z.
LLWS expected at BHB between 02z and 09z tonight.

West winds tomorrow afternoon may gust to 20kts at times.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected through the
period...with the possible exception of some MVFR cigs north of
HUL later Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas expected to come up this evening in srly swell.
Wind gusts will be marginal as stable layer remains over the
waters but gusts will approach 25 kts tonight and Wed morning.
SCA conditions may linger past 15z Wed but uncertainty precludes
an extension of the headlines.

SHORT TERM: South swell near 5 feet will be present Wednesday
night, but steadily decrease later in the night into Thursday.
Other than that, no significant wind, seas or fog seems likely
during the forecast period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Farrar/Hewitt
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...Farrar/Hewitt/MCW
Marine...Farrar/Hewitt/MCW



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