Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 300335
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1135 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
11:35 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR OVERNIGHT UPDATE. SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS. DROP IN TEMPS WILL SLOW DOWN AS HIGH
SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE BEGINS BEHIND THE HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING SUNNY
AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING BEFORE SLIDING OFF
TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FILTERED SUNSHINE UNDER INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST SO REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH FROM THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
S/SW WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EXCEPT A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES WILL EITHER BE MCLDY OR BECOMING CLDY SAT NGT ACROSS NRN PTNS
OF THE FA...WITH SHWRS BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS NW PTNS OF THE FA
BY DAYBREAK SUN AS A COLD FRONT FROM QB PROV APCHS FROM THE W. JET
STREAK ENERGY HI ALF...LMTD SFC HTG AND PWS OF 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
LATER DURG THE DAY SUN WILL FACILITATE A BAND OF ORGANIZED SHWRS...
WITH FCST SBCAPES APCHG 500 J/KG IN THE AFTN AND ERLY EVE HRS
SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF TSTMS. GIVEN THE HIGH PWS...WE WILL
MENTION HVY RNFL ENHANCED WORDING WITH TSTMS. MDTLY STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACCOMPANIES THE SUN AFTN/ERLY EVE FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
WITH LMTD CAPES SHOWN ATTM...WE BELIEVE IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR
TSTMS TO BECOME DYNAMICALLY ORGANIZED FOR WIND/HAIL ENHANCED WORDING
ATTM...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY.

A MORE DEFINABLE MID LVL S/WV-SFC LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS OVR MSLY
DOWNEAST AREAS SUN NGT AS BOTH SYSTEMS TRACK OVR THE DOWNEAST COAST
LATE SUN NGT. WITH BOTH AREAS OF ENHANCED RNFL SUN INTO SUN NGT...MOST
OF THE FA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF RNFL...
WITH LOCAL 1 TO 2 INCH CNVCTV RNFL BULLSEYES POSSIBLE. TMG OF
SHWRS AND 6HRLY QPFS FROM SUN THRU MON WERE BASED ON A BLEND
BETWEEN THE FASTER 12Z OPNL GFS AND THE OTHER OPNL 12Z MODELS
WHICH WERE A LITTLE SLOWER.

WITH A BROAD FRONTAL BL STALLING NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST LATE SUN
NGT...AND LITTLE COOL/DRY ADVCN BEHIND THIS FRONT...AT LEAST PATCHY
FOG CAN BE XPCTD ACROSS THE FA LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN. OTHERWISE
REMNANT UPPER TROFFING OVR THE FA WILL BRING PTLY TO MCLDY SKIES MON
WITH POSSIBLE SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS MON AFTN
SHOWING UP TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVR SW PTNS OF THE FA. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE ABV NORMAL BOTH NGTS DUE TO CLD CVR...SW WINDS AND
VERY MOIST LLVL AIR. DYTM HI TEMPS WILL BE AT TO PERHAPS A FEW DEG F
ABV AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS SETTING UP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...ITS SURFACE LOW
OVER JAMES BAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES INTO SRN ILL...A WEAK SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF MAINE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BY TUE
MRNG...THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW
AS THE LOW START TO BECOME COLD CORE. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
EAST INTO THE WRN QUEBEC...SOUTH THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COAST MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MAINE. TUE EVNG...THE CONTINUES TO MATURE...THE FRONT MOVES
INTO WRN MAINE...A NEW LOW SHOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY WED MRNG THE NEW LOW MOVES EAST INTO WRN
MAINE. BY WED EVNG THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MERIDIONAL THROUGH EARLY
FRI...WITH THE JET STREAM JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPIDLY MOVEMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LATE THUR A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF NRN
CANADA...BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT EVNG AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MAINE.

LOADED THE SUPERBLEND...USED THE SUPERBLEND DIURNAL FOR HR TEMPS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG LATER
TONIGHT, BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IT INTO ANY OF
THE TAF FORECASTS.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY...ALL TAF SITES WILL BEGIN VFR...
WITH MVFR CLGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CLDNSS AND VSBYS
WITH ORGANIZED SHWRS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WORKING NW TO SE ACROSS
THE REGION BEGINNING SUN AFTN AND CONTG ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS BY
SUN EVE. ALL SITES SHOULD THEN LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN LOW ST
CLDNSS...SHWRS AND PATCHY GOG OVRNGT SUN NGT. AFT MON FOG...ALL
TAF SITES SHOULD IMPROVE MVFR TO LOW VFR BY MON AFTN WITH SCT
SHWRS AND AFTN TSTMS BRINGING BRIEFLY LOWER CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME MON NGT AND THEN IMPROVE TO VFR ON TUE.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TUE NGT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHWRS WITH VFR RETURNING FOR WED THRU FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED AT THIS TIME BELOW SCA
LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE TRANQUIL ON THE SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: INITIALLY NO HDLNS FOR SAT NGT...THEN
INCREASING SWRLY WIND FETCH TO 10 TO 20 KT MAY BRING SHORT PD WV
HTS TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA FOR SUN AND SUN NGT. BOTH WINDS AND WVS
SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MON TO SIG BLO SCA CRITERIA AND REMAIN SO THRU
MID WEEK. VERY MOIST TROP AIR WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL OF
MARINE FOG BEGINNING BY SUN AND CONTG THRU MOST OF MON...WITH SUN
NGT INTO MON MORN BEING THE FOGGIEST PD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/FOISY/VJN







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