Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 211104
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
704 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY THEN A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST TONIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATER TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC IS PUSHING A WEAK WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
WEAK COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS DOWNEAST THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRAW THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TOWARD
MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES IS FCST OVR EXTREME SERN ONT TUE AM W/ AN ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT EWRD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NEWRD UP INTO NRN AREAS TUE THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS
ENEWRD TOWARD THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS ADVERTISES THIS MORE NRN
LOW TO WEAKEN AS A STRONGER SEC LOW TAKES OVR VCNTY OF ERN
MASS/NWRN GULF OF MAINE BY ERLY WED. INITIALLY PRECIP SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON TUE W/ SOME LGT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT THEN EXPECT MORE WDSPRD PRECIP TO SPREAD
EWRD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUE THRU TUE NGT AS THIS MORE BROAD AND
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF THE FA BY LATE WED... EXPECT 1/3 TO
2/3 OF AN INCH OF PRECIP W/ THIS SYSTEM. WEAK WAA WILL ALLOW FOR
HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABV SEASONAL NORMS ON TUE W/ MILD CONDS
PERSISTING TUE NGT. CLDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS NR OR MAYBE
JUST A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON WED...

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRES CONTS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA THO PRECIP
COULD STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR E AND N INTO WED NGT... THIS
TREND CONTS INTO THU W/ STILL CHC POPS ACROSS THE E WHILE HIGH
PRES FINALLY BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THIS HIGH TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THU NGT AND THEN CREST THE AREA LATER FRI AS
THE NXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVR THE GRT LAKES IN THIS CONTG ACTIVE
PTRN BEGINS TO SHIFT EWRD TOWARD OUR AREA. THE GFS IS MOST
PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CHC POPS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER FRI/FRI
NGT WHILE TH REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE HOLDS THINGS
BACK UNTIL SAT. ALL MODELS THEN KEEP CONDS UNSETTLED THRU SUN AS A
VRY SLOW MOVG SYSTEM IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL AVG A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE LONG TERM PD...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWRD ACROSS OUR NRN TAF SITES
WILL LIKELY BRING A PD OF LESS THAN VFR CONDS TO OUR NRN TAF
SITES ON TUE WHILE VFR PREVAILS AT THE SRN TAF SITES. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING MORE WDSPRD MVFR TO
IFR CONDS BACK TO THE AREA TUE NGT THRU WED W/ CONDS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE LATER WED NGT INTO THE AS THIS SYSTEM MVS E AND HIGH PRES
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRES W/ VFR CONDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI...

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT SRLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS ABV 5 FT LATER
TUE... CAA LATE WED WILL LIKELY PUSH BOTH SEAS AND WNDS INTO SCA CRITERIA...

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER NEAR MATTAWAMKEAG REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THIS RIVER IS HISTORICALLY VERY SLOW TO RECEDE, SO IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. ANY IMPACTS
WILL BE MINOR.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...DUDA/KHW
MARINE...DUDA/KHW
HYDROLOGY...





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