Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 281256
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
856 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECOND...STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TODAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION
ON TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL THEN SLOWLY
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
855 AM UPDATE...ADDED DRIZZLE FOR THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND KEPT FOG GOING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST INCLUDING THE COAST
THOUGH MID MORNING. SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST RAP AND NAM12 INDICATE DECENT LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0C/KM
FROM 850-700MB ALONG W/SOME WARMING IN THE LLVLS IN THIS REGION.
SB CAPES FOR FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AS WELL W/LIS
DROPPING TO -5. K INDEX HITTING 35 W/TOTAL TOTALS OF 50. 0-6KM
SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS. PLUS, LIGHTNING SHOWING UP A BATCH OF TSTMS
OVER WESTERN NH AND MOVING NE. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THEREFORE, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ABOVE 1.5" ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS. AGREE
W/NERFC AND WPC ON HEAVY RAINFALL W/A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LIES
DRAPED JUST WEST OF THE THE WESTERN MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
FRONT WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THIS FRONT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE PINE TREE STATE. THERE`S NOT
MUCH TO BE SEEN ON OUR LOCAL RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH
MAINE WOODS AS THIS REGION LIES CLOSEST TO THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS;
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, MOST AREAS WILL
SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR DOWNEAST. WHILE INSTABILITY DOES NOT
LOOK OUTSTANDING, GIVEN THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PWATS AROUND 1.5 INCHES
INDICATE THAT BRIEFLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND NORTH MAINE WOODS. DON`T EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY,
SUNSHINE TODAY. THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA,
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO FINALLY MAKE SOME REAL EASTWARD PROGRESS.
AS SUCH, EXPECT THE RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT MAKES IT, BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WESTERN AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S,
WHILE EASTERN MAINE WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORT WV SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW WILL JUST FINISH CROSSING NRN
PTNS OF THE FA TUE MORN...WITH SHWRS ENDING ACROSS THE N/E PTNS OF
THE FA ERLY TUE AFTN. SUBSEQUENTLY...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER
OVR SRN AND WRN PTNS OF THE FA TUE AFTN...WHICH SHOULD BREAK OUT
INTO AT LEAST PRTL SUNSHINE EARLIEST IN THE DAY COMPARED TO LCTNS
FURTHER N AND E.

SOMEWHAT DRIER SFC-BL AIR SHOULD THEN ADVECT EWRD FROM QB LATE
TUE AFTN INTO TUE EVE...RESULTING IN SEASONAL OVRNGT LOWS. DESPITE
THIS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RNFL COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
LATE NGT FOG LATE TUE NGT... SPCLY OVR VLY AREAS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING FROM CLRG SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS AS WEAK SFC HI PRES
SETTLES OVR THE REGION.

WED SHOULD BE SUNNIER AND DRIER...BUT PERSISTENT UPPER TROFING OVR
THE GREAT LKS AND WEAK FCST AFTN SFC CAPES OF 300 TO 500 J/KG SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL SCT AFTN/ERLY EVE SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS OVR THE FAR NW PTNS
OF THE FA. MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFT
SUNSET WED. HI TEMPS WED SHOULD ALSO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS...SPCLY THE ECMWF...CONTS TO KEEP MOST UPPER
LVL TROFING W OF THE FA THRU LATE WEEK...WITH UPPER RIDGING FROM
THE WRN ATLC OCEAN XPCTD TO RETROGRADE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE NEW ENG
COAST OVR THE WEEKEND. DESPITE BROAD SW UPPER FLOW...ALMOST ALL
LONGER RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MID LVL DRY SLOT FROM THE MID ATLC
STATES WILL REMAIN OVR THE FA THRU THE LATE WEEK. WEAK S/WVS
ROTATING NE FROM THE MEAN UPPER TROF OVR THE GREAT LKS COULD
RESULT IN AFTN/EVE ISOLD-SCT SHWRS AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVR NW
PTNS OF THE FA WED AND THU...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE WITH
SIG PDS OF DYTM SUNSHINE. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
AND DYTM HI TEMPS AT JUST ABV NORMAL THRU FRI.

ONE CONCERN IS WHETHER A MID TO UPPER LVL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAM ALG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HI ADVCS NWRD INTO THE
FA FROM THE OPEN ATLC THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER ATLC RIDGE
RETROGRADES WWRD AS PER THE 00Z OPNL GFS MODEL...OR REMAINS JUST
S OF THE GULF OF ME AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF. FOR NOW...WE KEEP
CHC POPS WITH THIS FEATURE JUST S OF THE DOWNEAST COAST SAT INTO
ERLY SUN...WAITING FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE ADVCG THESE
POPS FURTHER NWRD INTO THE FA. IF THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...
HI TEMPS SAT AND SUN WILL BE WARMER THAN THE LATE WEEK WITH THE
ADDITIONAL UPPER LVL RIDGING RESULTING IN WARMER 925-850MB TEMPS
OVR THE FA...VS SIMILAR WEEKEND GFS TEMPS IN THIS LAYER TO THE
LATE WEEK DUE TO CLD CVR AND POSSIBLE SHWRS...RESULTING IN SIMILAR
HI TEMPS TO THE LATE WEEK. OUR HI TEMPS THIS WEEKEND SPLITS WHATS
IMPLIED BY THESE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCAR AND
KPQI, WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR. EXPECT ALL SITES WILL BECOME
PREVAILING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF IFR
OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS TUE MORN SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SW TO NE
ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU TUE ERLY AFTN...THEN REMAIN VFR...XCPT
MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/ERLY MORN TUE/WED THRU
THU/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 7
FEET BY EARLY EVENING. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: A HAZ SEAS SCA WILL BE NEEDED TUE INTO TUE OVRNGT...
SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS...WITH WV HTS SLOWLY DIMINISHING BLO 5 FT
BY WED MORN. AFTWRDS...NO HDLNS SHOULD BE NEEDED. WENT WITH ABOUT
70 TO 75 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS
HIGH SUMMER BIAS DUE TO GFS MODEL SFC HI WIND BIAS OVR OUR WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM THIS
     AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/VJN





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