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000
FXUS64 KCRP 031130 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
530 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...LIFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTH
TEXAS TERMINALS THIS MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND BUT LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH MOST OF
THE DAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALI/CRP/VCT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOW END VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT LRD. HOWEVER...LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 00Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY WILL BECOME SELY TODAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COASTAL TROUGH HAS INCHED
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ABOUT
25 MILES OFFSHORE. AS WITH YESTERDAY MORNING...INLAND LOCATIONS
ARE DEALING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES INTO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. LIGHT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT ALSO
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR LAND AND MARINE LOCATIONS IN EFFECT AT
THIS TIME. COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE REGION TODAY
WITH SSE WINDS RETURNING BY MIDDAY. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE TODAY AS
A RESULT WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND/VICTORIA
CROSSROADS TO MID/UPPER 70S AROUND LAREDO. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA. SFC LOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT THIS EVENING NEAR THE
RIO GRANDE AND THE INCREASED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER
WINDS. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP BUT THINK FOG WILL BE LESS OF
THREAT DUE TO THE INCREASED WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREE WARMER...WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. POWERFUL
STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY
ON WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
TAIL END OF THE SHORT TERM...SO BELIEVE TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO WARM UP INTO THE 70 AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH. MOISTURE
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO BETTER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...COLD FRONT ON THE
DOORSTEP AT 00Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TIMING STILL NOT 100% CLEAR...BUT
MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH BETWEEN
00Z AND 06Z. SREF GUIDANCE A LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN OTHER
GUIDANCE...AND FITS BETTER WITH THINKING THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH FASTER. HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THAT MODEL WITH THE FRONT JUST
ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION WITH STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE WITH STRONG WINDS IN LAND AREAS.
EXPECT RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP NORTHEAST...BUT
FORECAST PROFILES INDICATE THE PRECIP ENDING AROUND THE TIME THAT
PROFILES WOULD GET COLD ENOUGH. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY
AROUND 40-44 DEGREES AREA WIDE ON THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S. LIGHT
RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
COASTAL BEND AND BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER
COASTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP. SIDING MORE WITH THE ECMWF WITH
THIS PATTERN...AS GFS HAD MUCH TROUBLE DEALING WITH THIS LAST
COASTAL TROUGH. HAVE A BLANKET 20-30 POP FOR EASTERN HALF OR SO OF
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOPE
TO BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THAT A LITTLE BIT...AND MAYBE FIND SOME DRY
PERIODS AS THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE CLEAR. THE SUN WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO ELUDE US THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AT LEAST IN THE
EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  62  76  38  43  /  20  10  20  50  40
VICTORIA          72  62  72  34  42  /  20  20  40  50  40
LAREDO            77  62  82  38  43  /  10  10  20  50  40
ALICE             73  62  81  37  41  /  20  10  20  50  40
ROCKPORT          64  59  69  39  44  /  20  10  30  50  40
COTULLA           72  59  77  37  41  /  20  20  30  50  40
KINGSVILLE        73  62  80  39  43  /  20  10  20  50  50
NAVY CORPUS       66  61  70  40  44  /  20  10  20  50  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM
     WELLS...KLEBERG...LIVE OAK...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN
     PATRICIO...VICTORIA.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS
     AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION