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000
FXUS64 KCRP 072059
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
259 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AND A LITTLE BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 100MB HAS LED TO SOME
WET BULBING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN TEMPS BARELY
WARMING INTO THE MID 30S. TEMPS SHOULD NOT BUDGE MUCH ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS/BEND/VICTORIA AREA TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER
ACTING AS A BLANKET. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...SOME
THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND CALMING WIND SHOULD
RESULT IN ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPS TO FLIRT WITH THE
FREEZING MARK. ANY FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE AND
WILL FOREGO FREEZE WARNING WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH MAX TEMPS AREAWIDE
WARMING INTO THE 40S AS DRIER AIRMASS ALLOWS FOR GREATER AMOUNTS
OF SUNSHINE. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY THAN
NORTHERLY. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY /UNTIL H5 DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE AREA
KICKS EAST/ BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO EASTERN ZONES.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVERALL ANOTHER CHILLY WEEK
AHEAD WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...NORTH WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO RUN 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH ONLY GRADUAL WARM UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A FEW PERIODS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN. NOW
FOR THE DETAILS...THE PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM THE MID-UPR 50S BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND
DROPS VALUES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT
IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS...AND N-NE WINDS WILL REMAIN
MOD-STRONG OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE
FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. UPGLIDE LOOKS TOO
WEAK TO GENERATE PRECIP ON TUE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS NEARER TO THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS ON WED-WED NGT. BUT BRING BACK CHC POPS THU-THU NGT AS
THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE MOISTENS TO NEAR SATURATION THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER AND WEAK S/W ENERGY MOVES OVHD. LIGHT PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE EASTERN COASTAL BEND FRI-SAT AS MAIN S/W PASSES OVHD. HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF A
BIT FASTER ENDING PCPN FRI AFTN. ANOTHER COOL SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THIS S/W WITH CLEARING SKIES. MOS
APPEARS TOO WARM FOR TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THUS WILL LOWER
TEMPS FOR SAT NIGHT (DAY 8 GRID).
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    36  50  47  57  40  /  20  10  10  30  30
VICTORIA          35  49  44  52  36  /  20  10  10  30  30
LAREDO            33  54  44  57  41  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             35  51  45  55  38  /  10  10  10  20  30
ROCKPORT          35  50  45  55  40  /  20  10  10  30  30
COTULLA           31  53  41  54  37  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        35  51  45  59  39  /  20  10  10  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       36  51  48  56  43  /  20  10  10  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
JM/75...LONG TERM