Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 271713
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1213 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN BRIEF EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG FRI PRODUCING
MVFR VSBY`S...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 924 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWED A DRIER AIRMASS THAN
12-24 HRS AGO. SHOULD BE A HOT DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED. CURRENT FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG
FROM ZONE FCST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST.

AVIATION...TERMINAL FORECASTS THIS MORNING FOR FOG AT KALI AND
KVCT WILL BE BASED ON LAST OBSERVATIONS BEFORE ISSUANCE...AS KVCT
IS SHOWING A HINT OF GOING BELOW 6SM. ANY FOG THIS MORNING AT
KVCT AND KALI SHOULD END BY 14Z AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
(ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THERE IS PROBABLY A LOT OF DEW ON THE GROUND
WITH TEMPERATURES AT KVCT IN THE MID 60S!). ANYWAY...AFTER THAT IT
LOOKS AS IF IT IS LIGHT WINDS AND SOME WISPY CIRRUS TODAY...WITH
WINDS BECOMING EAST THEN SOUTHEAST FROM WEST TO EAST THEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WILL NOT MENTION FOG ANYWHERE
TONIGHT AS NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING FOG AND FOG IS HARD
TO GET GOING THIS MORNING (I.E...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH TO PUT IN AT
THIS TIME).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
IN THE MORNING OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...PRETTY EASY FORECAST WITH
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE
EAST WHICH MEANS CWFA WILL BE ON SUBSIDENT/DRY SIDE AND THUS NO RAIN
WITH LOTS OF DAYTIME SUNSHINE IN STORE. FORTUNATELY...MOST OF THE
TIME WINDS WILL BE COMING FROM THE GULF WHICH MEANS IT WILL NOT BE
AS WARM AS IF CWFA HAD SOUTH OR WORSE SOUTHWEST WINDS (COULD HAVE
LAND BREEZE IN THE MORNING BUT THAT WILL NOT LAST). OVERALL...NEAR
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

$$

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME EAST
TODAY AND CONTINUE LIGHT SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. NO APPRECIABLE
CONVECTION EXPECTED. NOT BAD FOR BOATING UNLESS YOU LIKE WIND AND
WAVES.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET...DRY PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN
CHANCES. NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE...THOUGH THERE
IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.  MODELS
CONTINUE VARYING IN THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE GULF AND WEST/CENTRAL GULF COAST.  GFS NOW POSITIONS THE UPPER
LOW FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION...DEVELOPING MORE OVER EAST
TEXAS/LOUISIANA...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT FURTHER WEST WITH
THIS SYSTEM.  STILL ANTICIPATE LOW LVL GULF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.  KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS DEVELOPING DIURNALLY OVER THE REGION...BUT UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY AS CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOWER IN OVERALL PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF THE YEAR WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    95  70  96  73  94  /   0   0   0   0  10
VICTORIA          95  68  97  70  95  /   0   0   0   0  10
LAREDO           102  72 103  72 100  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             98  69  99  69  97  /   0   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          94  73  94  77  90  /   0   0   0   0  10
COTULLA          100  70 101  71  99  /  10   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        99  68 100  71  96  /   0   0   0   0  10
NAVY CORPUS       91  74  92  77  89  /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION


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