Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 270021
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
621 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation below for 00Z TAF update.

&&

.AVIATION...

Poor flight conditions will develop overnight into Monday morning.
Anticipate falling cigs at all terminals along with patchy fog
bringing MVFR to IFR into the early morning hours. Fog will
gradually clear after daybreak, with cigs slowly improving
through the day Monday. Gusty southeast winds early this evening
will quickly drop with the loss of daytime heating, maintaining a
lighter flow through the day tomorrow.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...

Mid-level shortwave trough of low pressure is now entering into the
Big Bend region as scattered showers continue to develop ahead of it
across the Northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads areas. Some
of the showers may become a bit deeper and produce slightly more
rainfall, on the order of a tenth rather than a couple hundredths.
Still do not think that thunder is likely with these as the mid-
level cap, around 700mb holds steady and the better lift/dynamics
continues to move east towards our north-northeast towards Austin as
does the shortwave. By late afternoon, over the next 3-4 hours, we
expect the showery activity to cease across our CWA.

With continued onshore flow, some turbulent mixing, and dewpoints in
the mid to upper-60s expecting overnight lows to only drop into the
mid-60s. The isentropic lift looks more weak to neutral late tonight
but enough moisture should be trapped under the lowering inversion
to generate an area of stratus across our interior zones. Patchy fog
may too develop though thinking the winds will stay up just enough
to keep the lower/denser visibilities from materializing. Not
entirely confident on the fog development early Monday morning.

Any fog/stratus that develop will burn/lift by late morning giving
way to clearing skies, though not entirely clear across the east.
Temperatures, with southerly winds in place, will quickly warm back
to nearly 20 degrees above average. At this point it`s become a
broken record... Not much in the way of lifting/forcing tomorrow
though a few streamer showers are possible across the Northern
Coastal Bend by late morning with better moisture convergence and
some instability to work with, so we maintain the slight chance for
thunder. Could see a late afternoon seabreeze work its way through
the Coastal Bend but the southerly winds may hold it to just a few
miles inland from the coast.

Stronger low-level jet Monday night in advance of the next cold
front (see long term section on frontal details) should help to
develop more stratus and less fog. Dewpoints will also be nearing
the gross 70-degree mark with overnight lows possibly not dropping
out of the low-70s.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...

Increasing onshore flow expected Tuesday in advance of an upper
level disturbance to move across the SWRN CONUS. Isolated showers
may occur Tuesday over portions of the CWA. As this system moves
across the SRN Plains...a cold front is expected to move across the
CWA/MSA Wednesday. The combination of greater moisture/surface
and upper forcing will contribute to isolated/scattered along and
in advance of the front. SCA conditions and drier conditions
expected Wednesday night over the MSA after FROPA and continue
Thursday owing to strong MSLP gradient due to higher SFC pressure
over the NW Gulf combined with a surface trough/low over the SWRN
Gulf. The combination of a coastal trough and increasing
isentropic lift will contribute to at least patchy light
rain/isolated Friday. A greater chance for stratiform rain and
showers Friday night/ Saturday owing to Isentropic lift.
Anticipate that precipitation will continue Sunday owing to the
approach of an upper level disturbance (ECMWF/GFS ensemble mean.)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    65  84  71  84  68  /  10  10  10  20  20
Victoria          65  81  69  83  67  /  20  20  10  20  20
Laredo            64  94  68  91  66  /   0  10   0  10  10
Alice             62  90  67  90  66  /  10  10  10  20  10
Rockport          68  77  73  76  68  /  10  10  10  10  20
Cotulla           62  91  66  90  63  /  10  10   0  10  10
Kingsville        64  90  70  89  67  /  10  10  10  10  20
Navy Corpus       67  78  72  78  69  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening For the
     following zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

LK/84...AVIATION



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