Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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692
FXUS64 KCRP 220206 AAB
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
806 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Have made several changes to primarily the wind
speed forecast for tonight. MSAS analysis indicates 3-hrly
pressure rises of around 6mb from Del Rio to Eagle Pass this
evening with the long talked about dry cold front rapidly pushing
into the region. NAM/GFS/TTU 4km Wrf/NMM/ARW/RAP all support
strong WNW flow across area bays and the adjacent Gulf waters by
midnight /or shortly thereafter/ and...given latest obs
upstream and aforementioned guidance...I have increased wind
speeds for tonight across all areas /especially marine areas/. As
such...I have also issued a Small Craft Advisory for all marine
areas for late this evening until the start time of the previously
issued Gale Warning. Some guidance indicates that gale conditions
may hold off until during the day Sunday...but I did not want to
get too picky with adjusting gale warning timing/onset just yet.

Also increased start time for the Wind Advisory and Red Flag
Warning on Sunday to fall in line with start time of surrounding
offices` start times.

Additional updates possible overnight if stronger nocturnal mixing
occurs than currently anticipated /which may happen given strong
50 to 60 kt 925mb core prog to move into the area overnight/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    55  75  47  78  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          53  72  45  76  54  /  10   0   0   0   0
Laredo            56  76  46  81  56  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             54  76  45  79  53  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          56  74  52  75  60  /  10   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           54  75  43  79  52  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        54  76  45  79  55  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       57  74  52  75  60  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday For the following
     zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval...Goliad...Jim
     Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces...
     Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria...Webb.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday For the following
     zones: Aransas...Bee...Calhoun...Duval...Goliad...Jim
     Wells...Kleberg...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces...
     Refugio...San Patricio...Victoria...Webb.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM CST Sunday
     For the following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas...Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to
     Port O`Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay
     to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 9 PM CST Sunday For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O`Connor...
     Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM...
     Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20
     to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Update...Hart/79



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