Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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854
FXUS64 KCRP 191051
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
551 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 12Z TAF`s.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR conditions this morning will improve to VFR by mid
morning. VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the day into
this evening, then become MVFR/IFR once again late tonight due to
low stratus and patchy fog. Isolated shra/tsra`s will be possible
today, mainly east of highway 281.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 339 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Weak ridging aloft along with slightly less moisture will lead to
less convective activity today. However, the low level moisture will
remain sufficient for iso shra/tsra`s associated with the sea
breeze. The activity is expected to wane this evening then
redevelop over the waters late tonight. A weak short wave is
progged to move across S TX Wed along with a 50KT jet streak
shifting southward across the area. This will provide upper level
support Wed for iso/sct shra/tsra`s, thus a slightly more active
sea breeze. The chc pops will mainly be across the NE CWA due to
proximity to upper support. Kept close to persistence for temp and
wind forecast. Heat indicies may briefly reach 106 to 107 this
afternoon across the southern Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...

A weakness in the height fields over South Texas combined with a
steady flow of gulf moisture (PWATs near 2"), will result in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through early next
week. Showers will form over marine areas early in the morning
before progressing inland along the seabreeze during the afternoon.
The best coverage of precipiation will be on Thursday as S/W moves
through the area. Temperatures will be near normal for this time of
year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  77  93  77  90  /  20  20  20  10  40
Victoria          92  76  92  75  89  /  20  10  30  10  40
Laredo           100  79 100  78  98  /  10  10  10  10  20
Alice             96  76  97  76  94  /  20  10  10  10  40
Rockport          88  80  90  79  88  /  20  20  20  20  40
Cotulla           99  77 100  77  98  /  10  10  10  10  20
Kingsville        95  77  96  77  93  /  20  10  20  10  40
Navy Corpus       88  80  90  80  88  /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...AVIATION



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