Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 290239 AAB
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
939 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT TRENDS AND REMOVED
POPS FOR OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA REMAINS WELL CAPPED. DID HOWEVER
LEAVE IN MENTION FOR LIGHT ISENTROPIC ACTIVITY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP LATE IN
THE NIGHT. A MIXTURE OF HAZE AND FOG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH MOST VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 2 TO 5 MILES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...MVFR THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LRD TO DEVELOP
TOWARD 08Z. EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT...TO MVFR /AND POSSIBLE IFR LEVELS FROM
CRP-ALI-VCT/. HZ AND BR DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. A 25-35 KT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
BUT ELEVATED SFC WINDS SHOULD KEEP LLWS OUT OF THE TAFS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AROUND 14Z-16Z FROM CRP-ALI-VCT...WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENTS WITH CIG HEIGHTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OUT WEST AT LRD BY LATE MORNING...AS HIGH-END MVFR CIGS
MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)....HAZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING DUE TO SMOKE FROM MEXICO BEING
USHERED NORTHWARD INTO S TX. A MIX OF HAZE AND PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL KEEP
THE AIRMASS MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY`S GENERALLY ABV 2SM OR BETTER
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
W...MAINLY FOR EARLY EVENING...THEN ACROSS THE FAR NRN TIER AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL BE SOMEWHAT CAPPED ACROSS THE N
WITH A MUCH STRONGER CAP FARTHER S INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SRN
BRUSH COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM. THE BETTER CHCS FOR
RAIN WILL BE FRI/FRI NIGHT AS A STRONGER UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
AREA AND EJECTS STRONGER EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES ACROSS S TX AND A
DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE W CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE
ENVIRONMENT TO BE VERY UNSTABLE ALONG WITH A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND
DEEPER MOISTURE FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE BEST CHCS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DUE TO PROXIMITY OF BETTER DYNAMICS AND
WEAKER CAP. DUE TO THE INSTABILITY...FEEL ISOLD PULSE SVR STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI. MODELS PROG AN MCS TO DVLP N OF THE AREA THAT
MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE N-NE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. THUS...WENT WITH HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE N FOR 06Z-
12Z SAT MORNING.

AS FOR WINDS...AM EXPECTING THE WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TO
REACH ADVISORY LEVELS TOWARD EARLY FRI MORNING. THEREFORE...HAVE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING AT 4
AM FRI MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FRI AFTERNOON...BUT FOR AM GOING WITH
CAUTION.

IN ADDITION...TIDES MAY APPROACH 2FT ABV MSL ONCE AGAIN FRI MORNING
DURING HIGH TIDE. IT WILL BE BORDERLINE BUT MAY SKIRT THE 2FT MARK
AT TIMES FRI MORNING. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH FRI. THEREFORE...EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRI.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A STRONG UPPER S/WV
APPROACHES THE REGION. AN MCS MAY BE ONGOING OVER OR NEAR THE NE
COUNTIES SATURDAY MORNING...AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THOSE
STORMS MAY SERVE AS TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS. A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EXISTS AS WELL
GIVEN ABNORMALLY HIGH PWATS.

MODELS INITIALLY HAD A NOTICEABLE BREAK BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE
NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THAT
DISTINCTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BLURRED AS MOISTURE CONTENT
REMAINS HIGH AND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THAT MOISTURE INTO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT PRESENTING ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
DUE TO TRAINING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DECELERATING SURFACE FRONT.
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH DRIER AIR
SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE COASTAL BEND. BY WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD
BE DRY...AND INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE MAY BE DRY FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THEREAFTER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL UP UNTIL THE FROPA ON
MONDAY...THEN WILL RETREAT TO MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY MAY.

CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST MARINE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED TIDE
LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WATER LEVELS
LIKELY 1 TO 1 1/2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP RIP CURRENT
RISKS ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  88  76  86  72  /  10  20  10  40  10
VICTORIA          75  85  72  82  69  /  10  30  50  60  20
LAREDO            76  97  74  94  70  /  10  20  20  30  10
ALICE             76  92  75  89  71  /  10  20  20  40  10
ROCKPORT          78  85  76  82  73  /  10  20  20  50  20
COTULLA           73  92  71  91  68  /  10  30  30  30  10
KINGSVILLE        78  91  76  89  72  /  10  20  10  40  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  76  82  74  /  10  20  10  40  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM



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