Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 310100
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
800 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Storms in Mexico continue to approach the Rio
Grande, however earlier storms from this morning have stabilized
the airmass across S TX. Models prog the airmass to destabilize
somewhat overnight as an upper level embedded short wave tracks
across the region. The GFS progs PWATs to be around 2 inches along
the Rio Grande as well. The forecasted POPs of 20 percent this
evening and 30 percent after midnight across the western CWA look
reasonable. Overall forecast looks good with no major changes at
this time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 638 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...See aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the evening, then
becoming more MVFR after midnight and into early Tue morning. This
will be due primarily to increasing low clouds and to a lesser
extent light patchy fog. Generally VFR conditions are expected by
mid morning Tue, however, TSRA chances increase across the LRD
area overnight and into Tue morning then spreads east through the
day. The best chance will remain across the LRD area due to the
deepest moisture and better upper support. Therefore, have a TEMPO
group for convection in LRD and PROB groups for ALI, CRP and VCT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...MCS that initially
developed across the N TX Panhandle 24 hrs ago was able to take
advantage of a marginally conducive thermodynamic and kinematic
setup and maintain itself through most of the CWA this morning.
Subsidence has since developed in wake of the MCS with mostly
sunny skies prevailing /as of writing/ across the eastern half of
the region. Farther west...cirrus shield from convection over MX
was leading to cloudier skies across the Brush Country. Convective
chances continue to be primary forecast challenge for the short
term period. A weak H5 s/w trough is prog to advect east across
the region again tonight which may lead to additional convective
development overnight along the Rio Grande/W Brush Country. Would
feel more confident in convective chances tonight if H85 flow was
stronger across the Brush Country...but given expected mid/upper
level dynamics...will carry 30 POPs for now. Farther east...have
introduced 20 POPS for portions of the Coastal Bend for late night
showers that can develop in part to the nocturnal marine
stratification processes. For Tuesday...combination of minor mid
level s/w troughs and an extremely unstable atmosphere /SBCAPEs
prog to be around 4500 j/kg during the midday and afternoon hrs/
should allow for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
to develop across primarily inland locations. Main caveat is if
thermal layer aloft remains too warm...but for now think ascent
from DPVA should be able to overcome capping inversion. I have
placed chance POPs for Wed across eastern areas and likely POPs
for mid/late afternoon across western areas. Focus then turns to
Tuesday night when another MCS may develop along the Rio Grande
and shift east overnight as a more potent s/w trough advects east
/with H25 difluence also increasing/. Little change to max/min
temps /as compared to previous days/ is expected...although cloud
cover/convective development Tuesday afternoon may limit max
heating potential.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...An unsettled weather
pattern looks looks likely for the second part of the work week.
Main weather feature during the extended will be slowing moving
upper level low approaching from the west. All ready in place will
be copious amounts of moisture at the beginning of the period. PW
values will be on the order of 1.7 to 1.8 inches, increasing to
around 2.0 inches at times through at least Friday. On Wednesday,
best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be located over
the western part of the region where upper level support will be
best. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will peak Thursday as
upper trough approaches and difluence aloft increases. Widespread
likely pops remain warranted and rain chances may need to be
increased even further in later forecasts. Upper trough slowly
nudges eastward which will focus the higher rain chances east of
Highway 281. Throughout this time, several bouts of heavy rainfall
may occur but will be likely dependent on mesoscale processes and
any outflow boundary interactions. Regardless, a heavy rainfall
event looks like a good possibility and a flash flood watch may
become necessary. Upper trough may not completely kick east of the
area by the end of the period and remain elongated from NE to SW
from Arklatex to South Texas. This may also allow a front boundary
to move into the region with continued chances of convection
Sat/Sun.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  89  77  85  74  /  10  30  30  40  50
Victoria          71  88  73  85  72  /  10  30  20  50  60
Laredo            76  93  76  91  72  /  30  60  40  60  60
Alice             73  90  74  88  72  /  10  40  30  50  50
Rockport          77  88  78  84  75  /  20  20  20  40  50
Cotulla           73  89  74  88  70  /  30  60  40  60  70
Kingsville        75  90  77  87  74  /  10  30  30  40  50
Navy Corpus       78  87  78  84  76  /  20  20  20  40  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM


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