Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 301144
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG CURRENTLY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DRG THE
12-14Z PERIOD. AFTERWARD...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
TEXAS EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL NEAR ISOLD CONVECTION
TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A TRANSITION TO PATCHY/AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES OWING TO
FOG PRIMARILY WEST OF U.S. ROUTE 77. LGT WIND EXPECTED DRG THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING WL DISSIPATE DRG THE 12-14Z PERIOD. GFS/ECMWF/NAM
DETERMINISTIC PROG A SERIES OF DISTURANCES TO MOVE ACRS THE NRN
CONUS DRG THE PERIOD YET WITH LIMITING UPPER FORCING OVER THE
CWA/MSA. MSAS REVEALS A WEAK SFC TROUGH NEAR THE COAST WHICH THE
GFS PROGS TO MOVE WESTWARD TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. GOES SOUNDER
DEPICT PWAT VALUES NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL VALUES NEAR THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. THE COMBINATION OF MSTR/SFC TROUGH SUGGEST AT LEAST
ISOLD CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA TODAY (THE SREF QPF
PROBABILITY OUTPUT ADDS CREDENCE TO SUCH.) LOWER PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND THUS NO PCPN IS
EXPECTED EXCEPT OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS WHERE MSTR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG OVER THE CWA DRG THE
09-14Z WEDNESDAY PERIOD (CONSISTENT WITH SREF VISIBILITY
PROBABILITY OUTPUT/NAM SOUNDINGS AT SELECT LOCATIONS) WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVR THE WRN CWA (STRONG DECOUPLING IN THE VERTICAL
WEST/MUCH WEAKER EAST.) ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE INLAND CWA FOR THE
09-14Z WED PERIOD. CBI NEURAL NETWORK WATER LEVEL PREDICTIONS AT
SELECT TCOON SITES SUGGEST LEVELS BELOW 2FT MSL DRG HIGH TIDE
TODAY AND THUS DO NOT ANTICIPATE MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S TX WED
NIGHT/THU IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE PLAINS. KEPT A SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA ON THU BUT VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL KEEP ACTIVITY TO
A MINIMUM. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THU EVENING AHD OF A
COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONT
MOVING INTO S TX SOMETIME THU NIGHT/FRI TIMEFRAME. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS SOLNS ARE THE FASTEST WITH THE BDRY REACHING THE COASTLINE
AROUND 12Z FRI. THE ECMWF IS JUST A TAD SLOWER AND WEAKER AND THE
NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH THE BDRY JUST ENTERING THE NRN CWA AROUND
12Z FRI. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER SOLNS. REGARDLESS...THEY
ALL SHOW CONVECTION DVLPG ALONG THE BDRY AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THU NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE 00Z-06Z THU
EVENING TIMEFRAME THEN BUMPED POPS UP FROM 06-12Z FRI MORNING
TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER JET IS PROGD TO
REMAIN FAR N OF THE CWA...THE TAIL END COULD PROVIDE SOME UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ALSO SHOW
MODERATE INSTABILITY/LIFT/CONVERGENCE AHD AND ALONG THE BDRY.
THESE COMBINED FEATURES COULD LEAD TO STRONG STORMS...POSSIBLY
ISOLD SVR STORMS. THINK THE BETTER CHC FOR SVR WILL BE FARTHER N
CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS...BUT CAN NOT RULE IT OUT THIS
FAR S. HVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN DUE TO THE ABUNDANT RAIN
SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN
LESS RAINFALL. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL SOLNS WITH REGARD
TO TIMING AND STRENGTH SO WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING SVR OR FLOOD
ISSUES JUST YET. THERE REMAINS SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH HOW FAST
THINGS DRY OUT ACROSS S TX AS WELL. HAVE LEANED TO THE FASTER
MODEL SOLNS WITH RESPECT TO THE DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO S TX
AND ENDING THE PRECIP FROM N TO S THRU FRI AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST THRU THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE
GRADUALLY RETURNING THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. MADE ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS WHICH ARE FCST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL
AHD OF THE FRONT. KEPT TEMPS BELOW GUIDANCE BEHIND THE FRONT THRU
THE WEEKEND WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK. KEPT
WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WATERS BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  89  76  90  /  20  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          89  74  90  76  92  /  20  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  75  95  78  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             89  73  92  76  93  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          86  78  87  78  90  /  20  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           91  72  93  75  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        88  74  91  76  93  /  20  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       85  78  87  80  90  /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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