Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 251106
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
606 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016
Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion.
Overall, VFR through the period. Isolated showers developing off
the coast will gradually push inland as we warm through mid
morning, with isolated to scattered showers and storms during the
late morning to afternoon hours. Best chances remain toward VCT
due to proximity of the midlevel disturbance, but have included at
least VCSH for CRP-ALI for convection along the afternoon
seabreeze. Winds out of the E-SE will also increase with gusts up
to 20 KTS possible. Rain chances will diminish and winds will
decouple during the evening. With increased moisture, may see
additional stratus for Wednesday morning, but for now, kept at
least VFR toward the end of the TAF period.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 357 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Moisture will be on the climb today through Tuesday as a upper
level low/inverted trough moves west across the northern gulf.
Temperatures in the midlevels cool with an overall weakening cap.
A slightly more active sea breeze is expected today, with
activity possibly move into the western Brush Country along the
boundary. Maintained higher chance pops across the Victoria
Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend mainly due to proximity of
the main weather system. Better chances head into tonight into
Tuesday as the upper low approaches the Texas coast. Warm H85
temps will continue to warm temperatures into the 90s across the
majority of S TX with near 103F temps across the western Brush
Country. This will continue Special Weather Statements for Heat
Index values of 105 to 109 across much of South Texas for this
afternoon and early evening. With a general easterly flow and
increase in moisture as well as cloud coverage, afternoon
temperatures will gradually decrease slightly through the short
term compared to this past weekend. Severe weather is not expected
due to lack of strong mid/upper level support, although a few
strong storms can not be ruled out.
LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Copious moisture (2-2.25 inch pwat) will be in place early in the
period. Weak upper low overhead will provide lower heights and a
little lift so still expect decent cvrg shra/tsra through Wed. Best
chances will remain in the deepest mstr over the Victoria Crossroads
with rain chances tapering heading west. Clouds and precip should
keep temperatures down around or just below seasonal norms.
Moisture will decrease a bit through the rest of the period but
remain deep enough that diurnal (morning over the water/afternoon
inland) shra/tsra will remain possible. Highs look to be at or just
above seasonal norms through the rest of the week into the weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 95 78 93 79 93 / 30 20 50 20 30
Victoria 95 76 92 77 92 / 50 30 60 30 50
Laredo 102 79 98 79 102 / 10 20 30 20 20
Alice 99 76 95 77 96 / 30 20 40 20 30
Rockport 93 80 89 80 89 / 30 30 60 30 40
Cotulla 103 77 97 77 98 / 10 20 40 20 30
Kingsville 98 78 95 78 95 / 30 20 40 20 30
Navy Corpus 91 79 88 81 88 / 20 20 50 30 40