Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 261137 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
637 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See AVIATION discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Will have VCSH at KCRP this morning, with VCTS at the other
terminals later in the day as expect some convection along the
sea-breeze. For now, the best confidence in TSRA reaching the
terminals is at KVCT, where a TEMPO TSRA has been put in the
forecast for the afternoon. Just kept the VCTS at KALI, and
changed the VCSH to VCTS at KLRD. If confidence in convection at
KALI and KLRD increases perhaps a TEMPO can be added. Otherwise,
pretty much the same thinking with south winds in the morning
becoming southeast with the passage of the sea-breeze then
diminishing from east to west overnight. Will likely have some
light winds toward the end of the TAF period (except at KLRD).
Could have some MVFR BR at KVCT and/or KALI, but more confident in
that occurring at KVCT so did include BR in the terminal there.
Otherwise, not a lot of big changes from the 06Z TAF forecast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...

Another hot and humid (a bit too humid) day in South Texas, and
pretty much the same on Thursday. Based on the forecast hourly
temperatures and dew points, will need a Heat Advisory for the
counties of Kleberg, Nueces, Jim Wells, and did include Duval
although this is borderline. Other areas will have indices 105 to
109 degrees and an SPS will be sent for that.

Upper ridge becomes more E-W oriented through the period with just a
little less moisture to work with on Thursday than today. PWATs
today will be AOA 2 inches, which normally means some chances for
convection. GFS is keeping the better PWATs over the NE while NAM
and SREF have good PWATS more south and west too. Will lean toward
the "wetter" forecast (not that wet), and decided to go with chance
POPs some inland areas, with 20 POPs most other areas (like previous
forecast). Did spread the 20 POPs a bit farther west than previous
forecast due to the higher PWATS west. Convection should end by 00Z
Thursday. Highs not too different from yesterday; maybe a degree
cooler in spots out west.

Warm and humid tonight, with slightly less moisture to work with on
Thursday. Winds will be a bit lighter though and thus could have
some isolated convection in the afternoon with theta sea-breeze.
Ergo, did go with 20 POPs mainly for the afternoon hours. Heat
indices 105 or higher again, with Heat Advisory conditions possible
again over nearly the same locations.

MARINE (Today through Thursday)...

Weak to moderate south winds become more southeast and increase to
moderate levels near the coast during the late afternoon and evening
with winds again becoming more south overnight. In short, typical
summertime winds. Convection expected to be isolated as best theta-e
ridge will be inland during the afternoon with convection more along
the sea-breeze.

LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...

Drier air will move into the region with no mentionable chances of
convection Thursday night through Saturday. Upper level ridge will
build further south over the end of the week, bringing drier,
subsident conditions to the region.  A warming trend will continue
with well above normal temperatures across the region as well.  Heat
index values of at least 105 to 109 degrees can be expected across
most location through the weekend.  Portions of the region may fall
into heat advisory criteria Friday and Saturday.

The upper level ridge will retrograde slightly as an upper level
trough digs into the southeast US early next week. Models continue
to indicate a frontal boundary will move south into eastern Texas
and stall north of the region on Sunday.  Moisture will increase
across the region ahead of this boundary, bringing a chance of
showers and storms early in the upcoming week.  A series of
shortwave disturbances moving down across the region will then
continue chances for isolated to scattered convection through the
mid week.

As ridge backs off from the region and more cloud cover and rain is
anticipated across the region, temperatures Monday through Wednesday
are expected to be cooler in comparison to previous several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  78  97  77  98  /  20  10  20  10  10
Victoria          96  76  98  76  99  /  30  10  20  10  10
Laredo           103  78 105  78 104  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice             99  75 101  75 102  /  30  10  20  10  10
Rockport          93  81  94  80  96  /  10  10  20  10  10
Cotulla          103  76 103  76 104  /  10  10  10   0  10
Kingsville        98  77 100  76 100  /  20  10  20  10  10
Navy Corpus       93  82  94  81  95  /  10  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Duval...Jim Wells...Kleberg...Nueces.

GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION



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