Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 221748 AAC
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1148 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...See Aviation section for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly IFR/LIFR except for a brief period this
afternoon when MVFR ceilings will be possible in the LRD area.
Frontal boundary will remain stalled over the offshore waters
today and then slowly drift back toward the coast as a warm front
through the night. Low stratus/fog along with patchy drizzle will
persist over the coastal plains. An upper level disturbance moving
out of northern Mexico will lead to an increase in showers over
the Brush Country this evening into the overnight period. Vsbys
are expected to improve to MVFR by 15Z over the coastal plains as
the warm front begins to move through.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1058 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...The cold front has stalled over the offshore waters
this morning. Continue to prefer the NAM/ARW/HRRR showing the
front will remain nearly stationary in this position through the
day with a gradual drift toward the coast during the night. Made
only minor changes to hourly temperatures based off NAM/ARW/HRRR
blend. The hi-res mesoscale models show warmer temperatures will
approach the Rio Grande by late afternoon, but the wedge of colder
air will remain over the coastal plains with highs only in the
lower to mid 50s. Areas of fog will affect the coastal plains
through the afternoon into the evening as this boundary remains
stationary. Isentropic lift expected to diminish this afternoon
with current forecast showing decreasing PoPs on track.

MARINE...Areas of fog limiting visibilities to 1 NM or slightly
less will continue to affect the near shore waters into the bays
today through tonight as the boundary remains stationary around 30
nautical miles offshore. Visibilities are slightly better over
the southern bays, so will keep this area out of the advisory at
this time. But this area will likely be added to the Advisory
later today. The Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect for the
through 12Z Friday.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 549 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...

See .AVIATION discussion for 12Z TAFs.

AVIATION...

Do not expect much in an improvement in CIGS today over the
eastern terminals, as an isentropic pattern keeps clouds around
with drizzle this morning. There is expected to be some
improvement in CIGs at KLRD but only to MVFR. However, VSBYs are
expected to improve later today as the isentropic pattern weakens
later this afternoon. Still, once the sun sets (not that it will
be seen) expect VSBYS to fall to MVFR or lower in the evening and
overnight. Overnight, will likely see LIFR conditions in either
CIGS and/or VSBYS with the isentropic pattern and the boundary
moving north as a warm front. Northerly winds today and more
northeast overnight but staying below 11 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    55  53  78  68  84  /  40  20  10  10  10
Victoria          54  49  78  68  82  /  40  20  10  20  10
Laredo            59  53  75  67  83  /  30  50  20  10  10
Alice             55  52  79  67  88  /  40  30  10  10  10
Rockport          57  55  75  68  78  /  40  20  10  10  10
Cotulla           54  50  66  63  81  /  50  70  30  20  10
Kingsville        55  54  80  67  87  /  40  20  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       58  57  76  69  81  /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port
     O`Connor...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel out 20 NM.

&&

$$

TMT/89...AVIATION


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