Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 271750
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1250 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front is noted across Central Texas with a band of MVFR
cigs ahead of the front. These cigs currently extend to Laredo,
and will likely remain through much of the afternoon as a weak low
center develops in this area. Think the clouds will start to
scatter our later this evening. Other sites will be VFR through
the afternoon with scattered to broken clouds mainly about 3kft.
Lower cigs will then redevelop for all areas overnight, with some
fog possible for ALI and VCT. Gusty winds will develop tomorrow,
and expect MVFR conditions to stick around to late morning.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Concur with the deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM that the upper level
disturbance currently over the SRN Plains will lift E/NE while
another yet stronger upper level disturbance moves EWD across the
SWRN CONUS during the period. Not surprised that the foregoing
deterministic solutions stall the frontal boundary just north of
the CWA Today given the projected upper pattern. Do not expect the
front to trigger convection over the NRN CWA Today given limited
moisture. Increasing synoptic scale ascent associated with the
stronger upper sytem will increase the chance for convection over
the CWA. Anticipate isold convection over the NWRN CWA Tuesday
afternoon given upper forcing and near/above normal PWAT values
(GFS Ensemble QPF output also adds credence.) Increasing onshore
flow will result in at least SCEC conditions over the MSA Tuesday
afternoon. Based on WAveWatch sea state output/expected wind
velocities, anticipate a low risk for rip currents Today and a
moderate risk Tuesday.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday Night)...

Moist southerly onshore flow will persist Tue Night in advance of a
deepening cyclone over the Southern Rockies.  Convection ongoing
along the dryline in West Texas may approach our far NW counties
late. A few strong storms will be possible. Will maintain highest
POPs for the northeast Coastal Bend for Wednesday Morning due to
forcing ahead of the dryline. An isolated strong/severe storm will
be possible due to CAPES (>2000 j/kg), Bulk Shear magnitudes >35 kts
and 90Kt upper jet nosing into the region. SPC has highlighted our
NE counties in a Slight Risk for Wed as well. Drier airmass advects
in on Thursday as the upper trough finally moves east and will
result in at least one cooler/drier overnight period. Low
temperatures Thursday Night will dip in the upper 50s to lower 60s
area wide which is actually near normal for this time of year.

On Friday the next big trough digs into the Southern Rockies
inducing onshore winds once again...which will become breezy by
afternoon. Moisture really surges into the area on Saturday as the
trough gets closer. Could be a few streamer showers by afternoon
with help from a few mid level impulses traversing the area in the
SW flow aloft.  Better chances for rain can be expected Sat
Night/Sunday as the main forcing associated with this deep low moves
across the state.  The added cloud cover and precip will limit
temperatures to more seasonable normals by Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  84  72  87  66  /  10  10  10  30  30
Victoria          69  84  71  85  64  /  10  10  10  70  30
Laredo            70  95  70  93  64  /  10  10  10  10  10
Alice             70  88  71  92  63  /  10  10  10  30  20
Rockport          72  80  73  82  69  /  10  10  10  50  30
Cotulla           68  90  67  93  61  /  10  20  30  20  10
Kingsville        70  87  71  91  65  /  10  10  10  20  20
Navy Corpus       72  79  73  84  69  /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION


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