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000
FXUS65 KGGW 121526
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
926 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPDATE...
FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST...WHICH STANDS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. INCORPORATED THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS
INTO THE WIND GRIDS AND TWEAKED SKY COVER BASED UPON RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WILL MAINTAIN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH RISING
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE MILDER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
THANKS TO A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CALM AND MILD WEATHER
PREVAILS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME INCREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR CALM AND MILD CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEHIND A DRY SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE...BUT THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SET TO
ARRIVE OVER THE REGION BEGINNING LATER ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CLEAR SKIES WILL
BE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIAN COAST TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EVEN
THOUGH THE MAIN ENERGY DIGS FAR SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BRING IN ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WHILE ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MILK RIVER.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO A
LARGE AND INFLUENTIAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. SOME LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
EXCESS OF 60 DEGREES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MUCH WETTER EC DIGS A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER AND BROADER TROUGH.

BEYOND TUESDAY...THE ONLY HOPE THE FORECAST HAS IS TO BLEND TOWARD
SOME KIND OF CLIMATOLOGY AS THE MODELS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH ONE ANOTHER WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...WHICH CAN HAPPEN THAT FAR
OUT. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEST
WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS WILL BE WATCHED FOR RESPONSES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FROM RECENT SNOW MELT AND POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. ICE JAMS HAVE
BEEN CAUSING RAPID RIVER RISES IN PLACES...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
DECLINES AS THE JAMS CLEAR. CLEARING ICE JAMS HAVE HAD DANGEROUS
RAPID ICE FLOWS WITH THEM.

FLOOD WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER.... MOST OF
THE ICE HAS MOVED THROUGH THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER...BUT SOME ICE
JAMS REMAIN ALONG THE RIVER CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
FLOODING IN LOW LAND AREAS AND NEARBY ROADS...INCLUDING MARSH ROAD
NEAR GLENDIVE...CONTINUES OVER DAWSON COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN RICHLAND COUNTY WHERE ICE JAM FLOODING
CONTINUES TO IMPACT LOW LAND ROADS AND RESIDENCES.

FLOOD WARNING ON THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING UPSTREAM OF PETROLEUM COUNTY ON THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER
DUE TO ICE JAM EFFECTS AND SNOW MELT RUNOFF. WATER LEVELS REMAIN
HIGH...ABOVE 11 FT AND AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT MOSBY. ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AND JAM ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER TOWARD THE U
L BEND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR FLATWILLOW AND MCDONALD CREEKS THAT ARE
RUNNING HIGH AND CONTAIN ICE JAMS. THEREFORE... A FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN PETROLEUM COUNTY.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR WIBAUX COUNTY...THE ICE HAS MOVED THROUGH
WIBAUX AND WATER LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO RECEDE UPSTREAM. ICE
REMAINS ON BEAVER CREEK DOWNSTREAM OF WIBAUX AND FURTHER FLOODING
FROM ICE JAMS IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW