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000
FXUS65 KGGW 041612
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
912 AM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL BE SHAVING WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
THIS MORNING AS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A
BIT. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE COLD DAY BEFORE MORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS. SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS PULLING CANADIAN HIGH THROUGH
THE REGION THIS MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AND LACK OF SNOW
COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH BUT MUCH OF THE
AREA STILL REACHING WIND CHILL CRITERIA THIS MORNING. EXPECT
PORTIONS OF THE REMAINING COUNTIES TO A LEAST FLIRT WITH DROPPING
BELOW MINUS 20 ON THE WIND CHILLS SO WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR
ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT PETROLEUM WHERE IT WAS CANCELLED DURING THE
EVENING.

AS HUDSON BAY LOW LIFTS TOWARD GREENLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...PACIFIC RIDGE WILL PUSH EASTWARD. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH WARM AIR
BEGINNING TO SPILL ACROSS THE DIVIDE. A SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ON FRIDAY COULD BRING A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY THE
AFTERNOON. EBERT


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A WARM AND DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. A FEW MINOR DISTURBANCES SLIDE THROUGH THE
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
SO LIMITED THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK...A CHANGE IN PATTERN MIGHT BRING A MORE
ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTH...BUT MODEL
CAMPS ARE DIVIDED ON THIS. EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS WOULD
BE RELATIVELY LOW...STARTED TO TREND POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT
IN THAT DIRECTION TO SHOW THIS CHANCE...EVEN IF IT IS REMOTE. GFS
AND DGEX CUT A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE EC AND CMC KEEP US IN A DRY RIDGE.

OVERALL...EXPECTING A VERY PLEASANT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR. A FEW CLOUDS EARLY TODAY NEAR 3K AGL CAN
BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.

WINDS: LIGHT WEST TODAY THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
BMICKELSON/TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW