Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 132148
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
248 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE ENERGETIC SHORT-WAVE THAT BROUGHT FREEZING RAIN TO THE AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT
RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW INTO THE PAC-NW...LOCAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORT-
WAVE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MAINLY CUT SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA SUNDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
WILL DRIVE HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ANOTHER STRONGER EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURE
SPREADS SUGGEST SNOW TO THE NORTH TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...WITH POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. A SURFACE LOW
FORMING UP TO OUR EAST WILL BRING ABOUT AN INCREASE OF WINDS TO
AROUND 15-20KTS...FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER. SCT


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

UPDATE TO EXTENDED...
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD OFFERS A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS RIDGE TRANSLATES EAST AND IS CENTERED OVER
MONTANA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH
THE RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MONTANA FALLS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN A RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MADE SLIGHT COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS
TO ELEMENTS HOWEVER IT DID NOT CHANGE THE FLAVOR OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.        PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. THE RESPONSIBLE
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EASY TO PICK OUT IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...BUT
MODEL AGREEMENT INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE A PASSING CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW MIX THROUGH NE MONTANA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP AMOUNTS SUGGEST SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM DODSON TO FORT PECK
AND POINTS NORTH.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND
TURNS THE FLOW ALOFT FROM THE SW WHICH SETS THE AREA UP FOR A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO NE MONTANA BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...ENOUGH MODEL DISAGREEMENTS SHOW UP TO
KEEP FORECAST CONFIDENCE WELL BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES LOOK DECENT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIT AND MISS AVERAGE.
BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
SYNOPSIS: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TRIPLE POINT OF ALBERTA-
SASKATCHEWAN-MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST. THIS LOW WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHEASTERN MONTANA SWITCHING THE WIND
AROUND TO THE WEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS EVENING.

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR. AREAS OF IFR FOR AREAS BORDERING NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 22Z THEN IMPROVING FOR ALL AREAS TO VFR.

WIND: EAST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST AND
WILL REACH THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY 22Z.

PROTON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DAWSON...
EASTERN ROOSEVELT...RICHLAND.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SHERIDAN...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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