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000
FXUS65 KGGW 120927
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
327 AM MDT WED MAR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THANKS TO A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...CALM AND MILD WEATHER
PREVAILS OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA.

EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWING A SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REGIME INCREASES FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR CALM AND MILD CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEHIND A DRY SHORT-WAVE
DISTURBANCE...BUT THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE HARDLY NOTICEABLE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SET TO
ARRIVE OVER THE REGION BEGINNING LATER ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CLEAR SKIES WILL
BE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BMICKELSON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS AS A MOIST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF
THE BRITISH COLUMBIAN COAST TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. EVEN
THOUGH THE MAIN ENERGY DIGS FAR SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO BRING IN ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION FOR OUR CWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN CENTRAL AND SOUTH WHILE ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MILK RIVER.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO A
LARGE AND INFLUENTIAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
STATES. SOME LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
EXCESS OF 60 DEGREES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MUCH WETTER EC DIGS A DEEPER TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS A DRIER AND BROADER TROUGH.

BEYOND TUESDAY...THE ONLY HOPE THE FORECAST HAS IS TO BLEND TOWARD
SOME KIND OF CLIMATOLOGY AS THE MODELS ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE
WITH ONE ANOTHER WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...WHICH CAN HAPPEN THAT FAR
OUT. BMICKELSON

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE TAF CYCLE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL SCT CLOUDS AND GUSTY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALMER WINDS FROM
THE WEST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS BY SUNSET. BMICKELSON

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREA RIVERS WILL BE WATCHED FOR RESPONSES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FROM RECENT SNOW MELT AND POTENTIAL ICE JAMS. ICE JAMS HAVE
BEEN CAUSING RAPID RIVER RISES IN PLACES...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
DECLINES AS THE JAMS CLEAR. CLEARING ICE JAMS HAVE HAD DANGEROUS
RAPID ICE FLOWS WITH THEM.

ICE JAM FLOOD WARNING ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER...A DANGEROUS ICE
JAM ON THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER IN SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTY IS
MOVING TOWARD SIDNEY AND FAIRVIEW. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WARNING
FOR ICE JAM FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY. IN
ADDITION...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF ICE JAM FLOODING ON LOW
LANDS AND NEARBY ROADS...A FLOOD ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR BOTH DAWSON AND RICHLAND COUNTIES FOR TODAY.

FLOOD WARNING ON THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING UPSTREAM OF PETROLEUM COUNTY ON THE MUSSELSHELL RIVER
DUE TO ICE JAM EFFECTS AND SNOW MELT RUNOFF. WATER LEVELS REMAIN
HIGH ABOVE 11 FT AND AT MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT MOSBY...WHERE
CRESTING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TODAY NEAR 12 FT. ICE JAMS HAVE
OCCURRED WHERE ICE CONTINUES TO MOVE AND JAM ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL
RIVER. SINCE WATER LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO RISE FURTHER...A FLOOD
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY. ICE JAMS WILL
CONTINUE ON TO THE U L BEND LATER THIS WEEK.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR FLATWILLOW AND MCDONALD CREEKS THAT ARE
RUNNING HIGH AND CONTAIN ICE JAMS. THEREFORE... A FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN PETROLEUM COUNTY.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR WIBAUX COUNTY...AN ICE JAM IS LOCATED ON
BEAVER CREEK ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF WIBAUX. WITH ADDITIONAL
SNOW MELT...AND ICE JAMMING WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING...A FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY. UNTIL ICE JAMS MELT OR PUSH OUT
OF THE AREA...LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN HIGH. REPORTS OF
LOWER WATER UPSTREAM MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF TODAY.

BIG DRY CREEK IN GARFIELD COUNTY AND THE REDWATER RIVER IN MCCONE
COUNTY...LEVELS REMAIN HIGH BUT HAVE NOT CAUSED ANY UNUSUAL
PROBLEMS. SOME WATER-COVERED LOW WATER CROSSINGS ARE BEING
AVOIDED WITH ALTERNATIVE ROADWAYS. THE LEVELS ON THE BIG DRY AND
REDWATER ARE FALLING SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW