Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
FXUS65 KGGW 302126
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
326 PM MDT Thu Mar 30 2017
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Sat...
***Reminder, our radar, KGGW, will be down for scheduled
maintenance until Saturday April 1***
An upper level low moving inland will continue to dig south today into
the desert southwest. An inverted surface trough will move
eastward across the area tonight bringing moisture to the area,
but most of the precipitation will remain south of the Missouri
River tonight. Temperatures are expected to remain warm enough for
all the precipitation to be rain.
Chances for showers will persist through much of Friday. A
shortwave will push southeast from Canada through northeast
Montana Friday afternoon and evening, pushing the moisture off to
the east. Temperatures will be cooler Friday, but still be around
normal. As the system moves across the area, northeast Montana
will see breezy north to northeasterly surface winds, with gusts
occasionally up to 25 mph.
A weak ridge sets up over northeast Montana Saturday, bringing
drier conditions and above normal temperatures back to the region.
.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...
Update: Only minor tweaks were made to the going forecast, mainly
to nudge it toward the latest extended model consensus. Regarding
the possible wet period next Monday/Tuesday model disagreement
remains substantial during this time, thus confidence is shaky.
Decided the best course of action was to leave pops largely as
they were, in the high change category until confidence improves.
Previous long term discussion: The extended forecast period gets
underway Saturday night into Sunday with models indicating a
passage of the next shortwave trough. With it, expect some
isolated to widely scattered rain showers across portions of
A deeper and more amplified trough over the western CONUS will
translate east early next week with steadier chances for rain
showers across northeast Montana. Models still differ on exact
timing and placement of highest QPF, which may remain south of the
CWA. Still, current forecast suggests wetting rains possible south
of the Missouri River and across the Yellowstone River Valley.
Latest 12z ensemble 500mb heights still indicate north to south
ridging building into western Montana for the midweek with warmer
temperatures and drier weather conditions the result. Maliawco
VFR conditions are expected this morning. Showers are expected to
move into KGDV this evening. With this rain expect potential MVFR
CIGS and VSBY overnight.
Area winds will generally be southeast at 5 to 10 mph this
morning, gradually becoming north this afternoon. Exceptions may
exist at KSDY to KOLF where easterly winds may persist into the
evening hours. Maliawco/TFJ