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000
FXUS65 KGGW 261412
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
812 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Fri...
Update: The current forecast is in good shape and no changes were
necessary.  Hickford

Previous Discussion...Surface high pressure over southern
Saskatchewan will continue to push to the southeast as the upper
ridge builds up to the west. Winds will go around to the southeast
today and could see some slight increase in low level moisture
northward across the high plains. Building ridge will also bring
warming temperatures, with readings edging toward the 90s again.

Some possibility for isolated thunderstorms tonight with the
development of a weak lee trof and the movement of weak shortwave
energy under the ridge. Any storms should be isolated but could
persist into Thursday morning.

Conditions fairly similar for Thursday as ridge continues
building pushing temperatures into the 90s for much of the region.
Thunderstorm development again possible over central Montana,
moving east into the plains late in the day. Positioning of the
upper ridge could pull monsoonal moisture into the state which
would improve the chance of rain with any thunderstorms. Ebert


.LONG TERM...Fri night through Wed...

The general story of the extended forecast period is
characterized by trying to discern and time the various subtle
embedded short-wave disturbances that will ride across the top of
the high-pressure ridge which continues to dominate much of the
inter-mountain west and high plains regions.

The problem with this messy flow pattern and its storm track is
that the various deterministic models have a difficult time
resolving the placement and intensity of any storm which may form
in these scenarios. At best, the chances for any storms in the
extended period could be described as scattered or slight chance
of rain showers with some isolated thunderstorms possible. Any
further attempts at specifics would be pre-mature at this point,
and to mention just one variable, could depend on the
atmosphere`s varying content of smoke aerosols from local and
regional wildfires.

Tried to blend the best model agreement I could find which places
the best chances for precipitation over our central and eastern
zones leading into and persisting through the weekend, especially
each afternoon and evening.

Expect daily high temperatures from near 90 to 95 and daily low
temperatures from the low to mid 60s. A frontal system seems
evident in the model data with no apparent change in temperature,
and may simply be the passage of a surface pressure trough and
would be the focus for any developing thunderstorms. Otherwise,
expect winds to be rather benign.

BMickelson

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the
region for the next 24 hours.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow