Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 300223
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
823 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. FRONT STILL ON
TRACK TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE OVER MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AS A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE PACIFIC. BEFORE THE
TROUGH PUSHES IN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BRING
PATCHY FOG TO THE EASTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA WHILE A LOW-LEVEL UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW. SHEAR OF ABOUT 40 KTS WITH INCREASING CAPE OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD YIELD TO A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A PLENTYWOOD TO GLENDIVE LINE. HAVE
ADDED SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS TO FORECAST GRIDS AND WILL LEAVE
WORDING OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO BUT BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE NE ZONES. THIS
AREA HAS RECEIVED THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK...A
SILVER LINING TO THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IT LOOKS A BIT DRIER. GFS SEEMED TO BE
AN OUTLIER SOLUTION BRINGING SHOWERS NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA. BUT THE
ECMWF/CMC AND NAM ARE DRIER AND BROUGHT POPS DOWN WITH THE NE
ZONES LOOKING FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TFJ


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
NO CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED WERE MADE GIVEN 29/12Z GUIDANCE IS IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING. OVERALL EXPECT BROAD TROUGH TO DRIVE
A COOLER THAN AVERAGE START TO NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH MAY BRING ABOUT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
OPPORTUNITIES FOR MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER WEATHER
MOVES IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
BROAD TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK AND ANOTHER
TROF DIGS TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER FLOW OVER MONTANA
WILL THUS GRADUALLY BACK FROM NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF IN THE COOL UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW
AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER
WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BACKS TO THE WEST WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF DROPPING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THIS ELONGATED
POSITIVE TILTED TROF ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD BUT MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY
WORK INTO THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS LOW STRATUS SETS IN LATER
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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