Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXUS65 KGGW 021531
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
931 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPDATE...THE GOING FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE. THE ONLY
TWEAKS WERE TO CLOUD COVER TO BETTER MATCH THE CURRENT SATELLITE
PICTURE. GILCHRIST

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SYNOPTIC SETUP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO ONTARIO
WHILE A LARGE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO ALBERTA. NORTHWEST MONTANA LIES WEDGED
ON THE WARMER SIDE OF NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE
AIRMASSES.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AND PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STABLE AIRMASS
AND WARMING CONDITIONS WITH HIGH STARTING INT HE MID 70S TODAY AND
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY MID WEDNESDAY.  LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF MONTANA MAY SPARK
OFF AN AFTERNOON SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THAT COULD DRIFT INTO A WESTERN
ZONE BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO STABLE EVENING CONDITIONS... BUT THESE
CHANCES ISOLATED AND VERY LOW. GAH


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FROM YESTERDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STILL BE POSITIONED
OVER EASTERN MONTANA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BREAK THE
RIDGE OVER MONTANA DOWN AND MOVE IT OFF TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION
STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COMING TO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW SETTING UP SATURDAY...WHICH
SHOULD CUT OFF THE PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. BEYOND SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GENERALLY KEEP SOME LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY.

BIGELBACH



&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAKE FOR
EXCELLENT FLYING WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.