Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 030259
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
859 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPDATE...

EXPECT A QUIET WEATHER REGIME OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH CONTINUING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAKE FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND GENERALLY
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT SMOKE TO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA TONIGHT...BUT AM THINKING WEAK SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY COULD HELP BRING A BRIEF RESPITE. GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR EXTENDED TERM ARE FOCUSED ON THE
DETAILS OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS SATURDAY...QUITE POSSIBLY
AFFECTING FORTH OF JULY FESTIVITIES. TOOK A LONG LOOK AT THE VARIETY
OF MODEL WIND DATA AND SAW ENOUGH SUPPORT THERE TO SUGGEST STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE RANGE OF
20G30 KTS FROM THE NORTH. MAY BE ON THE HIGHER END OF THIS
GUIDANCE BUT MODELS ARE GUSTING THIS WIND STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODEL RUNS AND GENERALLY TEND TO UNDERSHOOT WIND SPEEDS WITH SUCH
DYNAMIC SYSTEMS. PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOK TO
BE QUITE STRONG. EXPECT THE FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES RIGHT AROUND 00Z EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...02Z OR 03Z FOR OUR CENTRAL ZONES...AND AROUND 06Z FOR
OUR FAR SE ZONES. WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUBSEQUENT WIND
MODEL DATA FOR INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. WOULD EXPECT TO NEED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT TIME AS WELL.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE BEGINNING TO LOOK
LESS LIKE DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND MORE LIKE QUICK THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT...AND AS THE INSTABILITY QUICKLY MOVES ALONG WITH
IT...MORE LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT. STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
TIMING...AMOUNTS...AND PLACEMENT BUT SLIGHTLY BETTER CONSENSUS
THAN HAS BEEN BEFORE.

DID NOT UPDATE THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY MORNING. BMICKELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...VARYING DEGREES OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS. SHORTWAVES BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITHIN THIS TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF MOISTURE WITH THESE
WAVES. WILL BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS FOR NOW. SUNDAY
LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY THAT COULD REQUIRE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.

NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTH ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA ON TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTH ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN... THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS TO BE A MOIST SYSTEM SO WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON THURSDAY. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MVFR TO VFR.

SYNOPSIS: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...WITH JUST A FEW SCT-BKN
MID LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
AS LOW LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO MVFR LEVELS.

WINDS: GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTHWEST 7-12 KNOTS.

GILCHRIST/PROTON


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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