Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 252140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
340 PM MDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Thu...

A weak low pressure trough kicked off some light showers,
which are now moving into far eastern and northeastern Montana.
The trough and associated showers will be moving out of Montana
between 530 pm to 630 pm.

Tonight through Wednesday, an upper level ridge of high pressure
will continue across eastern Montana. The high pressure ridge
will continue to allow weakening disturbance to move over the top
of the ridge and across NE MT. Latest forecasts continue to show
that as these systems pass through NE Montana they are forecast
to bring mainly high to mid clouds with very low chances for

Thursday, the upper level high pressure ridge will be at its
strongest with the highest heights. Thursday weather will bring
mild temperatures and dry conditions and light winds.

.LONG TERM...Thu night through Tue...

The long term forecast period will be highlighted by an overall
unsettled weather pattern with multiple small-scale short-wave
ridges and troughs throughout.

Overall synoptic-scale model agreement is fairly good through
Monday, but falls apart thereafter. Locally, precip amounts and
placements already show some disagreements as early as this Friday
evening. GFS, DGEX, and MOS guidance all want to keep a band of
rain showers south of the Missouri River while the EC persists in
bringing those rainshowers mainly north of the Missouri River
through Saturday morning. Tried to blend these two camps and favor
the larger consensus a bit more.

Any further chances for precipitation are quick in passing and of
poorer model agreement reflecting the decrease in forecast
confidence this far out in time. The colder temperatures expected
after this weekend would probably give a rain and snow mix to any
precipitation which happens to fall.




A few scattered rain showers now east of KOLF and KGDV will likely
impact KSDY a bit for a few more hours this afternoon. Should not
amount to much more than some light accumulating rain.

Flight Category: Mainly VFR expected, especially as these rain
showers exit eastward.

Wind: E-SE wind 8 to 12 knots...becoming variable later this afternoon
and remaining light and variable tonight.





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