Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
966 FXUS65 KGGW 152043 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 243 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: 1) Gusty northeast winds will continue with a Lake Wind Advisory in effect for Fort Peck Lake until 6 pm. 2) Areas of rain will move across much of NE MT through tonight. Rain will diminish on Wednesday. Additional rainfall through Wednesday will be light north of US 2 and heavier south of the Missouri River. 3) Temperatures will be cool through Wednesday, then gradually warm to near normal by this weekend. 4)Cooler temperatures may arrive again early next week, in response to the approach of another upper trough. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper through pushing across the region, will maintain gusty northeast winds across much of northeast MT into this evening. Winds will diminish and trend southeast tonight, then remaining generally light southeast through much of Thursday. The Lake Wind advisory will remain in effect until 6 pm this evening. Moist flow across the region will continue tonight with frequent showers along with a few thunderstorms. A majority of the precipitation is expected to be confined to areas along and south of US Highway 2. As the upper trough continues to move through eastern Montana Wednesday morning, the rain is expected to diminish during the day. Rainfall amounts have varied greatly across NE MT through this aftn, ranging from around one tenth inch near Plentywood, to around one third inch from Glasgow west, with some places south of the Missouri River seeing up to three quarters of an inch. NBM probabilities still indicate highest additional rainfall greater than one half inch is greatest south of the Missouri river. Ensembles continue to support a return to near normal temperatures by the end of the week through the weekend, as upper ridging builds back across the region on the back side of the eastward exiting upper trough. The upper ridge will become centered over the state briefly this weekend allowing afternoon temps to warm into the 80s and 90s. A couple of surface features moving through the region Thursday through the weekend will increase the threat of active weather at times. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence otherwise is high for cool weather through Wednesday and moderate to high for the wet weather conditions through tonight south of US 2. Confidence in rainfall tonight diminishes going north of US 2 where less frequent rain is expected. NBM was used for the forecast cycle and captured expected trends well. && .AVIATION... LAST UPDATED: 2015Z July 15, 2025 FLIGHT CAT RANGE: Variable, but mainly MVFR most of the time tonight into Wed with VFR conditions at times. DISCUSSION: Frequent showers and a few thunderstorms will bring mainly MVFR ceilings and visibilities, with IFR at times in heaviest showers. VFR conditions will occur at times especially when there are breaks in the low clouds and rain. Winds: Look for NE winds 10 to 20 knots with higher gusts to diminish tonight before becoming east to southeast 5 to 10 knots through early Wednesday. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone- Petroleum. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow