Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 280000
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE EVENING FORECAST TO TACK ON DAWSON AND BUFFALO
COUNTIES TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ARE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...INCLUDING GRAND ISLAND. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LIES WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES...AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HAVE STARTED TO
SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. AT THE
SFC...CURRENTLY HAVE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER KMCK...A
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS NORTH INTO CENTRAL SD...WITH A WARM FRONT IN
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NEB/KS STATE LINE AND COLD FRONT
SITTING OVER WRN KS. THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE AREA...HELPING KEEP TEMPS NORTH OF THAT WARM FROM IN THE 80S.
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS PART OF OUR KS COUNTIES...ESP IN AREAS AROUND
PHG/HYS/RSL...GOOD MIXING TANKED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
50S...WHILE TEMPS ROSE TO NEAR EITHER SIDE OF 100 DEGREES. SPC
MESO PAGE SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING CAPPING REMAINING IN PLACE.

HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE GENERAL STORY WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BASICALLY PUSHING EAST NEAR THE
NE/SD STATE LINE...WITH HI RES MODELS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE COMING HOURS JUST OFF TO THE NW OF
THE CWA...SLIDING INTO MAINLY NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THEREAFTER.
KEPT THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS NRN THEN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...COVERAGE ELSEWHERE LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE. IN ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MODELS SHOW
THAT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE A
CONCERN...HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN...BUT
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH THE SFC
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA.

ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWN BETWEEN 06-12Z. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF PRECIP
MOVING OUT ISNT THE HIGHEST...THINKING FORECAST IS ON THE SLOWER
SIDE...AND DID KEEP THE LINGERING 20 POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY IS DRY...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA
DURING THE MORNING BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIR MASS...BUT HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE DOWN A BIT FROM TODAY
/WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN A MORE NOTABLE CHANGE IF WE HAD MORE SUN
TODAY/...RANGING FROM NEAR 80 IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 80S IN
THE SW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TOP TO BOTTOM...THIS IS THE OVERALL "QUIETEST" LONG TERM FORECAST
(DAYS 2-7) THIS FORECASTER HAS WORKED IN A COUPLE MONTHS NOW.
OFFICIALLY...ALL 12 OF THESE DAY/NIGHT FORECAST PERIODS CONTINUE
CARRYING A DRY FORECAST CWA-WIDE (SEE BELOW FOR POSSIBLE
CAVEATS)...AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS
ON MOST DAYS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW-90S RANGE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
MAINLY SOMEWHERE IN THE 60S...EXCEPT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF COOLER 50S RIGHT AWAY FRIDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NEB ZONES. IN
OTHER WORDS...VERSUS NORMALS/AVERAGES...MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME IS
LOOKING TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING
ALL THAT UNUSUAL FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

DIGGING A BIT DEEPER INTO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DAYTIME FORECAST IS ABOUT AS
CLOSE TO "GUARANTEED DRY" AS ONE CAN NORMALLY GET IN THE DAY 2-4
TIME FRAME...PLEASE...PLEASE NOTE THAT LATER FORECASTS MAY
ULTIMATELY END UP INSERTING LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE CWA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF THE LATEST
GFS SOLUTION MAINTAINS ITSELF FORWARD...WITH A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
QPF ESPECIALLY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST FOR NOW THIS SOLUTION LOOKS A BIT "FISHY"/OVERDONE...AND
BESIDES...THE LAST FEW ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE SPARSE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AFTER WEIGHING THE VARIOUS PROS/CONS OF
POSSIBLY INTRODUCING LOW-END THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THIS TIME
FRAME...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SOME FORECAST CONSISTENCY FOR NOW
BY LEAVING PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) BELOW MENTIONABLE 15 PERCENT
LEVELS. BESIDES...FROM A "FORECAST FLIP- FLIP"
PERSPECTIVE...YESTERDAY`S DAY SHIFT JUST REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCES
FROM TUESDAY...SO WOULD RATHER NOT TOSS THEM BACK IN ONLY 24 HOURS
LATER WITHOUT STRONGER MODEL SUPPORT.

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...HAVE MADE SOME FAIRLY MINOR UPWARD TRENDING
TO DAYTIME SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...BUT TO
THE MON-THURS TIME FRAME AS WELL. IN OTHER WORDS...ALONG WITH
THE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO COME SEVERAL DAYS OF AT
LEAST "BREEZY" CONDITIONS...BUT NOTHING THAT YET APPEARS TO
FEATURE WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20+ MPH.

CONSIDERED JOINING NWS OAX TO MY EAST WITH A MENTION OF "PATCHY
FOG" FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS STILL OUT IN THE 3RD-4TH PERIOD...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW UNLESS/UNTIL VARIOUS FOG GUIDANCE (INCLUDING SREF PROBABILITY
OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES) STARTS SHOWING A STRONGER SIGNAL
OF MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING
SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

FINISHING UP WITH A LOOK AT SOME DAILY/NIGHTLY DETAIL IN 12-36
HOUR BLOCKS:

FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT: RIGHT AWAY EARLY IN THE EVENING...THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR STORM POTENTIAL DURING THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
IA/IL...WHILE AT THE SURFACE A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER IA INTO
NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN KS. VARIOUS MODELS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EARLY-EVENING CONVECTION POTENTIALLY FLIRTING RATHER CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRINGES OF THE CWA BEFORE MOVING FARTHER AWAY WITH
TIME...BUT BARRING A NOTICEABLE SLOW DOWN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN MAINTAINING THE DRY FORECAST CWA-
WIDE FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN WILL PROMOTE LIGHT NORTHERLY EVENING BREEZES BECOMING
MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ZONES LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS FOR LOW
TEMPS...THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE LONG TERM...WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA INTO THE UPPER 50S.

SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT: RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE MORNING...WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG POTENTIAL...BUT
HAVE REFRAINED FROM A FORMAL FORECAST MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH IN A DRY 24 HOURS AS A
PRONOUNCED...POSITIVELY-TILTED RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS THE PLAINS.
HAVE NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES MOST AREAS...AIMING FOR A
RANGE FROM MID-80S EAST TO NEAR-90 SOUTHWEST. WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS PASSING THROUGH...BREEZES SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE
OVERALL- LIGHTEST OF THE ENTIRE LONG TERM...AVERAGING NO MORE THAN
5-10 MPH FROM VARIABLE DIRECTIONS.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DRY FORECAST
PERSISTS...AS IF NOTHING ELSE THE PROMINENT...POSITIVELY-TILTED
MID-UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...KEEPING FORCING FOR CONVECTION LARGELY NON-EXISTENT.
COMPARED TO SATURDAY...IT LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER AND
CERTAINLY BREEZIER...WITH ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
LOOKING AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH
(ESPECIALLY FOR 4 DAYS OUT) IN A DRY DAY...PER THE EARLIER
PRECIPITATION PARAGRAPH...CONFIDENCE STARTS TO WANE AT LEAST A
TOUCH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO SAG
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA AND ALLOWS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO AT
LEAST IMPINGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WILL KEEP THE CWA DRY FOR
NOW...AS THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: AGAIN...AS ALREADY COVERED ABOVE...KEEPING
THESE 24 HOURS VOID OF AT LEAST SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE
INCREASINGLY-DIFFICULT GOING FORWARD (ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT PER
THE GFS). STILL THOUGH...AM A BIT SUSPECT THAT MUCH CONVECTION
WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP...AS EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES
TO SUPPRESS A BIT...THERE ARE ALSO CERTAINLY NO PROMINENT MID-
UPPER FEATURES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IN THE
END...DECIDED THAT "SILENT" 10 POPS ARE THE BEST ROUTE FOR NOW
UNTIL IT DRAWS NEARER.

WEDNESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY DAYTIME: ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CANNOT
"GUARANTEE" THAT THESE LAST 36 HOURS MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST ALL
THE WAY THROUGH...THIS IS FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME THAT DIDN`T EVEN
CONSIDER "RUINING" THE GOING DRY FORECAST YET. IN THE MID- UPPER
LEVELS...THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOCAL
REGION ONLY SEES LIMITED FORCING ALONG THE VERY SOUTHEAST FRINGES
OF STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH STILL
CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

COULD HAVE SOME SEVERE STORMS AROUND AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST
THIS EVENING. UNSURE OF VISIBILITY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND TIMING
OF STORMS THIS EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...HEINLEIN


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