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000
FXUS63 KGID 100645
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THANKS TO STEADY WESTERLY BREEZES SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS...OUR HOURLY
TEMPERATURE CURVE WAS RUNNING WAY TOO COLD IN MANY AREAS.
ALTHOUGH EXPECT THESE BREEZES TO SETTLE DOWN TOWARD SUNRISE AND
ALLOW SOME MORE EFFICIENT DROPS...A BLEND OF LATEST HOURLY GFS
LAMP GUIDANCE/RAP13 HOURLY TEMPS NONETHELESS SUGGESTS THAT OUR
PREVIOUS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS TOO COLD...AND AS A RESULT
HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS IN MOST AREAS AN AVERAGE OF 3-6 DEGREES. TIME
WILL TELL IF THIS WAS ENOUGH...BUT DON/T WANT TO GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY AS AREAS OVER THE DEEPER SNOW COVER COULD EASILY STILL DROP
SEVERAL DEGREES BETWEEN NOW AND 8 AM. FOR NOW THOUGH...THE NEW
LOWS FOR MOST OF THE CWA WILL AIM BETWEEN 6 AND 9 DEGREES ABOVE
ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

WITH A DRY FORECAST...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIODS IS
THE IMPACT OF SNOWFALL ON TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN ALOFT
FEATURED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE MAIN
UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE HUDSON BAY AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS EARLY THIS AFTN BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH NEGLIGIBLE EFFECT OTHER THAN PASSING CLOUD COVER.
BEHIND THIS WAVE...THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS MORE WESTERLY VS
NORTHWESTERLY AND HEIGHTS RISE AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY. THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WHICH HAD SETTLED INTO OUR REGION FOR A WEEK WILL BEGIN
TO DISLODGE AND WE FINALLY START TO SEE AN UPSWING IN
TEMPERATURES.  H85 TEMPS WILL RISE ABOUT 10C IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL BE QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE LAST WEEK WHERE
HIGHS AVERAGED IN THE TEENS AND LOWS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. THE WARMUP WILL BE TEMPERED TO SOME DEGREE DUE
TO SNOW PACK ON THE GROUND WHICH RANGES FROM 1 TO 7 INCHES.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY FROM A WESTERLY
DIRECTION.  THE STEADY WINDS AND WARMING AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN
LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.  THE SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL STILL RESULT IN VERY COLD
WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO...WHICH ARE NOT
COLD ENOUGH FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINE.

THE AIRMASS CHANGE COMBINED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ON TUESDAY
SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS...AND IT HAS
BEEN ABOUT A WEEK SINCE WE HAVE HAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.
HAVE KEPT READINGS CONSERVATIVELY COOL DUE TO THE SNOWPACK...BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF OUR NORTHERN ZONES AROUND THE ORD AREA
MAKE A RUN TOWARD 30 DEGREES DUE TO A GAP IN THE SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST MON DEC 9 2013

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE SOME FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORTH AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE FIRST
WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN WAVE IS
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE
NORTH AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND
AND TO SQUEEZE A FEW FLURRIES OUT IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE. A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THERE IS SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION BUT WITH THE FRESH SNOW THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE WEST AND THE MAIN WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND WITH WARM ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPING
THE TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A MARKED INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY TO
THURSDAY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME MELTING OF THE SNOW ON THURSDAY.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

ON FRIDAY ANOTHER OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
WITH THIS WAVE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST THAT MAY
SEE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW. THE CHANCE IS LOW AND MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
ARCTIC AIR LIKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT JUST A LITTLE COOLER. THE COOLER
AIR IS SHORT LIVED AND THE TEMPERATURE WARM A LITTLE FOR SUNDAY
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE LAST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...AS AT THE VERY
LEAST...A DECK OF LOW-END VFR HEIGHT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DROP
ACROSS THE AREA. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME FLURRIES OR
A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER COULD ACCOMPANY THESE CLOUDS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. IN
THE SHORTER TERM...THE MAIN ISSUE IS ONGOING LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...AS WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZES AT THE SURFACE SUSTAINED AROUND
14KT RAMP UP SHARPLY TO AROUND 42KT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITHIN THE LOWEST 1500FT AGL. THE NET RESULT IS 30-35KT OF WIND
VECTOR DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE LEVELS...AND THUS WILL CONTINUE A
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION THROUGH 09Z...WITH THE SHEAR
MAGNITUDE EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW 30KT THEREAFTER.OTHERWISE...SURFACE
BREEZES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10-12KT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD...AVERAGING FROM A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION UNTIL THE LAST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WHEN A POTENTIALLY SHARP SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY BREEZES OCCURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH