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000
FXUS63 KGID 202346
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
646 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THEN
A BURST OF N WINDS TOMORROW MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING MILD...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE CONUS...WITH FASTER MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. THE SLOWER/WEAKER
SRN STREAM WAS OVER THE SRN USA. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROF WILL CONTINUE E INTO ONTARIO THRU
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT LOW WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. IT
TOO WILL MOVE E ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE NRN TROF. THE FLOW WILL
CONSOLIDATE TOMORROW AND BECOME NW AS A RIDGE ADVANCES THRU THE
WRN USA...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE W COAST MON
NIGHT.

SURFACE: THE REMNANTS OF A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW-NE FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO NEAR MCCOOK. A PACIFIC ORIGIN COOL FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON /ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SASK TROF/ AND WE JUST EMERGING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE. NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW.

THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT LAST LONG AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU ROUGHLY 6
PM.

MLCAPE WILL ONLY PEAK AT 500-750 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS. SO SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE. THE ONLY REAL
ORGANIZATION WILL BE SMALL CLUSTERS WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY GENERATE AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COMMON COLD POOL.

INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE TOO WEAK FOR STRONG STORMS. SO THAT
POTENTIAL THREAT WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE HWO AT 1153 AM.

QPF: UNFORTUNATELY...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WONT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO BE
OF MUCH BENEFIT.

TONIGHT: THE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SO EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OR END 7PM-9PM. WITH THE NEXT COOL
FRONT MOVING IN LATE...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
RENEWED SHWR ACTIVITY /POSSIBLY THUNDER?/ S AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

CLOUD DEBRIS FROM DISSIPATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
SCOURED FROM NW-SE...MAINLY N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. USED BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.

TOMORROW: THE DAY WILL START WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE TRI-
CITIES S AND E. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING TO THE SE.
COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE SHWRS OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST
AREA /E OF A LINE FROM YORK-NELSON-BELOIT/.

WIND: THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
DECREASING 6 HR PRES RISE MAXIMUM. COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE BURST
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT ABOUT A 6-HR PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS FORENOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE /MOS AND RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS/
APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEWPOINTS. KNOCKED 1-2F OFF
AFTER EXAMINING FCST SOUNDINGS. BUT THIS WILL STILL KEEP MINIMUM
RH LEVELS JUST ABOVE 20%. THERE SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 3 HRS OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS RH LEVELS
BOTTOM OUT.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE. USED THE
WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE RECENTLY BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

WE BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT AND A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE WILL APPROACH AS WELL.
THIS ENSURES A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ONE
THING OF NOTE FOR TUESDAY IS A SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENING IN THE
LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MODELS VARY WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INFLUENCE HOW WINDY WE WILL BE. THE ECMWF SOLUTION PLACES THE
RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY AND OTHER
MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...HAVE COME IN LINE WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE SOUTH BREEZE AS A RESULT. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE AND PRIME US FOR INCREASED
INSTABILITY FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
GOING TOWARD THE CONSRAW SOLUTION FOR LOWS BECAUSE OF THIS.

THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE SQUARELY IN THE RELATIVELY
NARROW WARM SECTOR. BY AFTERNOON A DRY LINE WILL PROBABLY SCRAPE
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND PLENTY
OF BULK SHEAR...THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT SOME SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH...AND LESS SO IN OUR NORTHERN
CWA. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. WE COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN
THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE NEXT FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH AND TIMING...THERE IS A GENERAL
INDICATION OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT
OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR ON WHETHER
WE COULD GET SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THIS. NOT ENOUGH SEVERE
PARAMETERS HAVE COME TOGETHER FOR ME TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KGRI THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT THINK THAT AS THE SUN ANGLE GETS LOWER...THE STORMS
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS HOUR WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINAL AROUND
21/15Z...USHERING IN STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ROSSI