Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 211149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
649 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

A strong cold front will quickly track across the forecast area
from northwest to southeast this morning. This will turn our
strong southerly winds to gusty northwesterly winds behind the
cold front. Our temperatures will hold pretty steady this morning
through early afternoon with good mixing, but we don`t really
expect temperatures will rise much if at all this afternoon. The
cold air advection and normal diurnal heating will more or less
balance each other out keeping temperatures largely steady in the
60s for most areas through mid afternoon. By late afternoon and
especially by early evening the cold air advection will really be
felt and temperatures will quickly fall. We also expect dewpoints
will really fall off today behind the cold front from the lower
60s just ahead of the cold front into 30s by late afternoon behind
the cold front.

The cold front timing is not favorable for our area to see much if
anything in the way of showers and thunderstorms. The cold front
is expected to fire up a line of thunderstorms late this afternoon
and evening off to our south and east. However, for most of our
area this will be a dry frontal passage, with just a slight chance
of a thunderstorm generally across our far southeastern zones.

Tonight...The cold air will really settle in as the skies clear
and the wind goes light allowing for strong radiational cooling in
a much colder airmass. Low temperatures tonight should fall into
the upper 20s across our northwestern zones with lows around the
freezing mark in the Hastings and Grand Island area. Lower to mid
30s are expected over our southeastern zones. We are only still
issuing frost/freeze headlines for our Kansas counties and have
issued a frost advisory for all of our Kansas counties for early
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

After a frosty start to the day on Sunday, temperatures will rebound
into the upper 60s to lower 70s as a deep trough continues eastward
and out of the area.

Monday will remain relatively warm as well, but a reinforcing shot
of cool and drier air is forecast to arrive Monday evening. Breezy
northwest winds will keep low temperatures from falling much lower
than the upper 30s to low 40s on Monday night, but highs on Tuesday
will struggle to reach the 60s. With a stiff north wind, it will
feel quite cold...especially compared to to how mild it has been so

On Wednesday, ridging aloft will briefly take over, which will allow
temperatures to reach the 70s again.

This warmth will be short-lived though. Another strong upper low
will push a front through the area on Thursday. This will bring us
our next chance of rain, and could even bring some snow to parts of
the area depending on the timing of the system. Lows Thursday and
Friday nights are expected to be in the upper 30s to low 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

There is a scattered to broken low stratus deck streaming north
across the region this morning, especially along and east of the
Highway 281 corridor. This will result in periodic MVFR ceilings
for awhile this morning, but eventually the ceilings will lift and
VFR conditions are expected for most of the day. The clouds will
clear out by this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
along the cold front late this afternoon, but by that time the
front will be well southeast of our TAF sites.

There will be a wind shift from southerly early this morning to
northwesterly by early this afternoon as the cold front tracks
southeast across the area. Strong cross winds will be a problem on
some runways today.


KS...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ005>007-



LONG TERM...Mangels
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