Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 270653
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1253 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE FIRST LATE-NIGHT FORECAST UPDATE IS ON ITS WAY...AND IN THIS
CASE ONLY PERTAINS TO THESE NEXT 12 HOURS THROUGH ROUGHLY NOON.
ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO AMOUNT TO MUCH...BY FAR
THE MAIN UPDATE INVOLVES THE INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES TO MUCH OF THE NEB PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN NOW AND
MID-MORNING...BEFORE THIS FLURRY POTENTIAL (IF IT EVEN HAPPENS)
STEADILY DEPARTS EAST OF THE CWA. IN SHORT...FOLLOWED CLOSELY THE
00Z NAM EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A RIBBON OF SATURATION/MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 290K SURFACE TO PLACE THE FLURRY MENTION.
IN FACT...AT THIS MOMENT RADAR INDICATES SOME WEAK ECHOES DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF WEST-CENTRAL NEB INTO SOME OF OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...ITS JUST A MATTER OF WHETHER OR NOT ANY FLURRIES ARE
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND...AND IN THIS CASE OPTED TO COVER
THE POSSIBILITY. THESE SITUATIONS WITH FAIRLY NARROW RIBBONS OF
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ARE NOT UNCOMMON ON THE IMMEDIATE BACK-SIDE OF
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...AND SURE ENOUGH A 120-140KT
NORTHWESTERLY STREAK AT 300 MILLIBARS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED FROM
WESTERN IA INTO MO. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY GROUND-TRUTH
OF FLURRY POTENTIAL SHOWS ITS HAND OVERNIGHT...

IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS...ONLY MADE VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/WINDS/DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO REALIZE MORNING LOWS IN THE 13-20
RANGE...ALTHOUGH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE HOURLY TREND
TRICKY. NO OTHER SHORT TERM CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE YET...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER.  AN UPPER JET WAS CROSSING THE PLAINS AND A FEW FLURRIES
DEVELOPED IN WESTERN NEB.  RADAR MOSAIC IS PICKING UP ON THE CLOUD
COVER BUT WITH TEMP/DP SPREADS AROUND TEN DEGREES...JUST NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOR PCPN AND HAVE LEFT THINGS DRY ATTM.

A COLD 1038MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE COLD
AIRMASS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE
IN THE TEENS.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE COLD CONDITIONS OF TODAY AND A NICE
WARMUP COMMENCING FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF
SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT
WHILE WARMER AIR/SUBTLE RIDGING EXPANDS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH OUR WESTERN ZONES REACHING THE 40S TO
NEAR 50 FOR HIGHS...WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH TEMPERATURES.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL LOOKING AT THESE TWO DAYS
EASILY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FRIDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE NERN CONUS AND
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE ISNT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...BUT IT DOES GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
ZONAL WITH TIME AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW
REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...WITH NO DISTURBANCES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS HAS COME AROUND TOWARD
THE SOLUTION THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH
THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH 850MB TEMPS STARTING OUT THURS EVENING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND INCREASING TO THE UPPER TEENS ON SATURDAY. SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE W/SWRLY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THANKS TO A
TROUGH AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THIS DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO
THE WIND COMBINED WITH THE WARMING TEMPS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FOR A
COUPLE REAL NICE DAYS. FRIDAYS HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH SATURDAY FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 60S
CWA-WIDE. DO HAVE ONE CONCERN...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
A COUPLE OF 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET A TOUCH FURTHER
SOUTH ON SATURDAY /NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER/ THAN ON FRIDAY. ISSUE
WITH THIS IS HOW MUCH CIRRUS/CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND...ESP ACROSS
NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT THIS POINT...DID BUMP UP SKY COVER A
BIT...BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING IT TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR UPCOMING FORECASTS TO CONSIDER.

THE PAST FEW DAYS THE GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TOWARD A QUICKER ARRIVAL
AND PASSAGE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT SAT/SUN WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN
CONUS. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS TODAY WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO NRLY WINDS PUSHING THROUGH
MOST OF THE CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL LINGER AROUND AS
WE GET INTO MONDAY AS WELL...BUT AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY...WE SEE A
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH THAT AIRMASS SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST...AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. SUN/MON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT IN THE 20S/30S...WITH TUES BACK IN THE UPPER 30S/40S. THE
FORECAST SUN THROUGH TUES REMAINS DRY...WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY /DAY 7/ IS LOW DUE TO
INCREASING SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS SOLUTIONS.  AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...BOTH
THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE SOME KIND OF DISTURBANCE OVER THE WRN CONUS...THE
GFS IS A BIT FURTHER INLAND VS THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
OFF THE COAST. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...MOVING IT THROUGH THE ROCKIES WITH
INCREASING LIFT RESULTING IN QPF OVER THE AREA.  THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
LOW CLOSED OFF AND THUS IS SLOWER WITH IS MOVEMENT...WHICH ENDS UP
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA AND STAYING DRY. AT
THIS POINT THE FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND KEPT
DRY...AND WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY WITH ONLY
VARYING DEGREES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
CENTERED NEAR SUNRISE COULD FEATURE CEILING DIPPING DOWN AS LOW AS
AROUND 5K FEET. ALONG THOSE LINES...SUPPOSE EVEN A FEW ROGUE
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT SOME POINT MAINLY DURING THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WORTH A FORMAL
MENTION. JUMPING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE PERIOD MAINLY AFTER 03Z
THURSDAY EVENING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD AT LEAST
APPROACH MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OF 30+KT OF OVERALL SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS WELL BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS WORTHY OF INCLUSION. AS
FOR SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING
THE DAY (GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20KT)...BEFORE DECREASING A BIT
DURING THE EVENING BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10KT.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


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