Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 280810
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
310 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 08z surface analysis indicated that the upper level ridge axis
was remaining across the southeast U.S. with generally clear skies
and temps in the lower 70s. In the short term, the models are
indicating that a weakness in the ridge axis will occur across
Southern Middle Tennessee and into northeast Alabama today. We can
expect isolated to slight chance afternoon shra/tsra pops across
these areas. The shra/tsra development by this afternoon will
primarily be due to orographic effects. Have compromised involving
todays high temps between the cooler GFS and warmer NAM temps.

The same general weather pattern is expected to continue into mid
week. The models are in similar agreement involving keeping the upper
ridge axis across the region, limiting much of shra/tsra development.
By Wednesday, a weakening cold front is expected to shift southeast
out of the midwest into the lower Ohio valley. By Thursday, the GFS
and ECMWF models are in decent agreement in slowly moving the frontal
boundary into and through the forecast area. If this scenario
continues, the frontal boundary will shift south of the forecast area
by later Thursday and will affect the movement of a tropical system
that is progged to develop in the Gulf of Mexico also by Thursday. To
differing degrees, the ECMWF and GFS models develop a tropical system
in the gulf of mexico by Thursday, but there are differences
involving this system placement and its development with each model
run.

If the 00Z model run trending continues, the forecast area will be
on the subsidence side of the system well to the northwest and drier
and slightly cooler air will filter southward into the region for the
upcoming labor day weekend. Due to longer term model inconsistencies,
have opted to compromise between the cooler GFS temp guidance and the
warmer ECMWF temp forecast.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1200 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016)
For 06Z TAFs: Generally clear skies and light winds will continue
into the overnight. These conditions, a somewhat longer late summer
night and residual moisture from recent rainfall could lead to
patchy predawn fog development. Given heavy rainfall on Friday at
the KMSL terminal, stayed with slightly lower VIS values than at
KHSV. Any fog that forms should quickly dissipate shortly after
sunrise Sunday morning. Daytime heating and available moisture
should lead to isolated afternoon shower/thunderstorm development.
Any convection that forms should dissipate early Sunday evening.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    94  72  94  71 /  20  10  20  10
Shoals        94  73  93  72 /  20  10  20  10
Vinemont      93  71  92  71 /  20  10  20  10
Fayetteville  93  71  92  70 /  20  10  20  10
Albertville   92  71  91  71 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Payne    92  70  91  69 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.


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