Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 261136 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
536 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 405 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/
SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL GULF
REGION THIS EARLY FRI MORNING. AT THE MOMENT...THESE CLOUDS COUPLED
WITH SOME MIXING JUST OFF THE SFC ARE KEEPING ANY SIG FOG FROM
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
FOG/FREEZING FOG HEADING INTO THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...ALTHOUGH ANY VIS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
BRIEF. THE WX OTHERWISE TODAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES XPCTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AS
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF
REGION. SLY FLOW IS ALSO BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...AND THIS TREND SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD LATER TODAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP
AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS...WITH HIGHS MORE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S RANGE.

CLOUDS SHOULD THEN BE ON THE INCREASE STARTING TONIGHT...AS THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TURNS TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE SWLY STREAM.
RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL SLATED TO RETURN ON SAT...WITH THE LATEST
MODEL SUITES CONTINUING TO HINT AT FAIRLY STRONG CYCLOGENESIS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. MULTIPLE SFC WAVES ARE XPCTED TO
QUICKLY LIFT NEWD AS A MORE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS THIS
ENERGY OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD. ONE OF THESE SFC LOWS/WAVES STILL
LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE SAT/INTO SUN...WITH QUITE A
BIT OF QPF DEVELOPING INVOF THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM SAT INTO EARLY MON STILL LOOK TO AVG AROUND 1-2 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS MAY AGAIN LEAD TO SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED JUST SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS
MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL S OF THE AREA.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME SAT EVENING WHEN
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PERHAPS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH
THE PROB IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TUE AND WED THEN LOOK FAIRLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL...AS A STRONG
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NRN/MID PLAINS STATES BUILDS INTO
THE SE REGION. ANOTHER DEVELOPING SFC WAVE OUT OF THE WRN GULF WILL
THEN USHER THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA LATE THU AND INTO
FRI. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...ALONG
WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR COLDER AIR TO BECOME WRAPPED INTO THIS
SYSTEM FROM THE N. AS SUCH...HAVE MAINTAINED THE PRECIP AS ALL
SHOWERS FOR NOW PENDING FURTHER MODEL RUNS.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK...MAINLY IN/NEAR LARGE
BODIES OF WATER EAST OF I65. VFR WEATHER OTHERWISE SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS A 5-10KT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING...BACK TO A LIGHT SE
FLOW. MORE CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TOWARD SAT MORNING...AS A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE SW.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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