Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS64 KHUN 221106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
606 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

For 12Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Today)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016
Temperatures at 200 am were in the mid to upper 40s with dewpoints
mainly in the upper 30s all under clr skies. Winds were from the
north between 5 and 10 mph. Thus any widespread/heavy frost early
this mrng looks very iffy. Otherwise the rest of today will be sunny
and cool with highs in the mid to upper 60s. With 8H winds arnd 30kts
today, added some wind gusts up to 20 mph.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure will dominate this period with a continuation of dry wx
along with a slight warming trend. Morning lows will be in the lower
40s with aftn highs arnd 80.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 108 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The long term starts off by continuing the dry and mild pattern with
an upper ridge and sprawling surface high pressure in place. This
will continue through Wednesday with both days having highs slightly
above normal, in the mid to upper 70s and above normal lows, in the
lower to middle 50s.

The pattern starts to shift Wednesday night as a piece of energy
under the ridge in the upper midwest quickly creates an upper trough
and associated surface low and frontal system. This will move into
the local area by Thursday morning. What happens next will depend on
what model you believe and is mostly because of how each model
positions the high off the east coast. The ECMWF leaves the upper
trough open and quickly lifts the surface low north with the high
pressure centered over the northeast. This will end the precip quite
quickly Thursday evening. The GFS shows a stronger high pressure
system over the eastern third of the country which causes the upper
low to cut off and meander south over the area. This would keep rain
in the forecast through Saturday. Given the fact the model blends
end the rain by 00z Friday, the GFS is clearly the outlier. Also
given the good performance of the ECMWF on this past week`s frontal
system, wouldn`t be surprised if that one verifies. Will not include
thunder at this time given the uncertainty but could see some
rumbles on Thursday with the frontal passage.

The front will have little effect on temps given the main temp
change/forcing will be to the north. Highs Thu-Sat will still be in
the lower to middle 70s with lows in the lower 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

High pressure building across the TN valley from west to east will
provide for vfr conditions thru the fcst period.





For more information please visit our website
at is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.