Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 011111
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A FEW FEATURES TO
NOTE...ONE OF WHICH IS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER LOUISIANA WHICH IS
FEEDING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THAT SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH THE DAY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WAS EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN US WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER INDIANA.
SUBSIDENCE DEEPENS OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND WILL INHIBIT
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE SUBSIDENCE IS ESPECIALLY
EVIDENT IN THE STRONG RIDGE AT 800/700MB CENTERED OFF THE SE US
COAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRIER TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND PER SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE THE SUBSIDENCE/MID LEVEL CAPPING
AND DRY MID LEVELS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO BUT A 10 PERCENT POP IS WARRANTED FOR THAT.
WITH SUFFICIENT WARMING AND MIXING EACH DAY...SHOULD SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY MID LEVEL CLOUDS EACH AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THE START OF
METEOROLOGICAL FALL TODAY...TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE AVERAGES AND MORE SUMMER-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK...SPECIFICALLY HOW THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW IMPACTS THE
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THEY ARE STILL CONSISTENT
HOWEVER IN DEVELOPING A BACK DOOR FRONT/TROUGH AND A WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN UNTIL THE MODELS CAN
BETTER DISCERN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE FRONT WEAKENS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOK TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S.

LN

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY TO VIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. AFTER 14Z EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD FOR BOTH KMSL AND
KHSV.

007

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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