Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 280135
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
935 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow-moving low pressure system and associated cold front
will push south toward the Ohio River tonight. The low will then
pivot to the northeast toward West Virginia as the cold front
pushes south on Friday. High pressure will build in behind the
departing low for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure over Indiana will sag slowly southeast toward the
Tri-State region tonight. As this occurs, an associated cold
front will also sag south toward the Ohio River. Showers
continue to develop in the moist flow around the low.

For tonight, we will see at least likely PoPs for southern
locations as the low pivots toward the Ohio River. The airmass
is very moist, PWATs over 2 inches, along with WCDs near 4.0 km.
Therefore, the showers will be efficient rain producers. The
threat for flooding and/or flash flooding is there, but should
be more relegated/limited to where repeated rounds of heavy
showers occur. The coverage of thunder is expected to be in the
chance category. Thus, with limited coverage, will continue to
mention heavy rainfall in the forecast with a mention for
flooding in the HWO. With winds become light near the low, we
will likely see some patchy fog as well. Lows will range from
the mid 60s north to near 70 along and south of the Ohio River.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level s/wv is expected to close off as a mid level
circulation over Ohio/Pennsylvania on Friday as it digs
southeast. This will pull the low northeast toward West
Virginia. We will see mostly cloudy skies on Friday with the
best chance for showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, over the
eastern zones closer to the low pressure system. Highs will be
held down due to clouds and the threat for pcpn, which should
range from the mid to upper 70s.

For Friday night, the mid level closed circulation will move
slowly southeast. As this occur, the surface low will slowly
pivot east/northeast. The threat for pcpn will come to an end
from west to east along with a clearing trend from the west as
well. Drier air will filter in on northerly flow. Lows will
range from the mid 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highly amplified mid/upper level flow pattern with ridge building
over the west and trof over the east. This will place the Ohio
Valley in a northwest flow pattern this weekend. Surface high
pressure of Canadian origin will build southeast across the Great
Lakes. This high will provide dry conditions and seasonably cool
temperatures. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday look to be 5 to 10
degrees below normal, with highs generally in the mid and upper 70s.

Dry weather to persist with some moderation to temperatures through
the week. Expect highs by Wednesday close to normal and generally in
the mid 80s. Next upper level trof to drop south across the Great
Lakes late in the week. Some model solution timing differences exist
regarding this feature. Have limited pops to low chance Thursday
north and then increase chances across the Fa Thursday night into
Friday with the approach of the associated surface front.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Aviation will continue to be impacted by low pressure and a
cold front. Widespread showers have ended. However, scattered
showers will be regenerating in the moist circulation around the
slow moving low, so kept VCSH in the forecast through tonight
into Friday afternoon. Thunderstorms are not in the forecast due
to expected isolated nature. Ceilings are expected to drop to
IFR late tonight through early Friday morning, accompanied by BR
in the nearly saturated lower atmosphere. Improvement to VFR
should occur around mid morning Friday as drier air works in
behind the low on an increasing northerly flow.

OUTLOOK...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio



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