Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
FXUS61 KILN 260004
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
804 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017
Southerly flow will result in warm and dry weather into
Wednesday night. A cold front will sweep across the region on
Thursday with high pressure briefly building in behind the
front. Conditions will become unsettled over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Cumulus that developed today will diminish with the loss of
heating. Some high clouds will move across the region through
the night with somewhat thicker clouds possible late. MOS
guidance seems to have a reasonable handle on lows.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging will sharpen along the western edge of the
Appalachians with southerly low level flow increasing during
the day. Looks like there will be little to no clouds. All of
this will lead to very warm temperatures, although falling a
few degrees shy of records across the area.
Wednesday night, a short wave will pivot out of the Ozarks into
central Illinois/Indiana. Showers and thunderstorms associated
with this system will approach the western counties late in the
night. At this point it looks like a rather sharp gradient in
moisture with this. So clouds will not increase until the latter
half of the night. Persistent south winds will keep readings
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather pattern will be in place for the long term
period. A cold front will move through on Thursday. There are
strong low level winds so wind gusts outside of thunderstorms
have the potential to be 30 to 40 mph. There is also some
marginal instability. With these factors in place as
thunderstorms develop there will be the potential for isolated
damaging wind gusts Thursday morning into the early afternoon
hours. The Storm Prediction Center also has the region in a
marginal risk for Thursday. Included this threat in the HWO.
Temperatures will begin to cool during the afternoon hours as
cooler air works into the region.
There will be a lull in the precipitation Thursday night.
Cannot rule out a few showers or storms on Friday, however any
coverage is expected to be limited. This will allow for
temperatures to climb back into the 70s to around 80.
There is some uncertainty for the weekend with where the frontal
boundary lays out and subsequently where the best precipitation
chances are and how warm temperatures will be. Due to this did
not go more than likely precipitation chances at any point
during the weekend expect for northwest of Interstate 71
Saturday morning. Breezy conditions are expected for much of the
weekend and into the early part of next week. Dry conditions
are then expected Monday night into Tuesday.
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cumulus clouds which developed around 5000 feet will dissipate
with sunset. Expect only some thinning high level clouds
overnight. With light wind flow and surface dewpoints in the mid
50s expect patchy fog to develop over river valleys and across
eastern sites. Have MVFR vsby restrictions at KLUK and KLCK late
tonight into early Wednesday. Expect fog to burn off quickly
Wednesday morning with only high level clouds through the day.
Have mentioned LLWS at the 30 hour KCVG TAF site Wednesday
evening with low level jet developing over the area and boundary
Surface winds will be light southeast overnight becoming south
at 10 to 15 kts Wednesday afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings along with a chance of thunderstorms
will be possible Thursday and then again Friday night through