Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 271139
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
639 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID MORNING. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING QUITE AS
MUCH AS FORECAST AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
OCCASIONAL WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW -10. SO KEPT THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE TIME BEING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HOWEVER IT WILL
REMAIN COLD. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ARCTIC HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
WINDS AND OF COURSE SNOW PACK REMAINS. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WHICH WILL KEEP FROM HAVING EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT DO NOT BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
PLUMMETING. SO HAVE GONE BELOW COLDER MAV GUIDANCE WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOWS.

HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY BUT WITH ENOUGH RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE FOR A DRY DAY. MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF AND
WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM A BIT
DESPITE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. WENT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

PRECIPITATION WILL START TO DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE FROM THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL OVERRUNNING. NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING
PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AND WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARMER AIR WILL GET PULLED
IN FROM THE SOUTH AFTER THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH SO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER AREAS NORTH OF DAYTON MAY STAY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE EVENT.
THUS HAVE FORECAST THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE. ELSEWHERE
EXCEPT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.

USED A MOS BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WITH THOSE READINGS
OCCURRING EARLY FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES. STAYED
BELOW MOS ON SUNDAY GIVEN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FORECAST.
BUT THEN ALSO DID NOT DROP TEMPERATURES AS FAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. AS IT DOES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AND THEN TRANSLATE
EAST. THIS WILL BUT THE OHIO VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS A STRONG INFLUX
OF GULF MOISTURE. 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
EVOLUTION WHICH PROVIDES SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTY. BUT ALL
GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ENOUGH WARMING TO MELT MOST IF
NOT ALL OF THE SNOW PACK. SO THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK.
AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN TO START. AND THEN THUNDER CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WHICH WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN RECENT WEEKS. DEPENDING ON THE SYSTEM
TIMING IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO BE
EXPERIENCED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS STARTING TO DROP BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR AND VFR CIGS WILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING HOURS. MOST AREA
TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED MVFR CIG FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LINGERING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
LATER THIS MORNING. VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED BRIEFLY WITH SOME OF THE
SNOW THIS MORNING. MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR FEB 28
CINCINNATI...1 IN 1934
COLUMBUS.....2 IN 1934
DAYTON......-3 IN 1934

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062.
KY...NONE.
IN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INZ050-
     058-059-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
CLIMATE...





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