Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 251749
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1249 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO IT THIS LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW OBSERVATIONS EARLY HAVE STARTED
AS SNOW...BUT IN SOME SITES SUCH AS THE DAYTON AIRPORT...HAVE
CHANGED BACK TO RAIN. AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE RUNNING
FROM NORTH OF DAYTON AND EXTEND ESE TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FRANKLIN
COUNTY. THIS WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND BECOME MORE W-E
ORIENTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR EXPECT SNOW TO
MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES AND ACTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN FOR
A GOOD BIT OF THE REGION THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW THAT IS NORTH
OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE MUCH BUT COULD BRIEFLY MIX
WITH SLEET OR RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE CORRIDOR I AM HESITANT TO SAY THAT IT WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW
BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.

WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM I STILL SEE THE WARMER AIR BEING
PULLED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD TO TICKLE THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE
TO MIX RAIN IN THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME SNOW MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD. BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF WITH
LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. AFTER THIS...WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER AT THIS POINT THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH
CLEARING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
SPREADING IN ABOUT THE TIME LOW CLOUDS START TO CLEAR OUT. A
SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LEANED
TOWARDS COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOS LOOKED
REASONABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND QUICKLY MOVE OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON HOW WARM IT GETS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. READINGS WILL
DROP BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM SECTOR PULLING IN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING WNW FROM THE SOUTH SIDE OF
COLUMBUS WILL KEEP MAINLY RAIN OVER DAYTON AND SURROUNDING SITES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOW AND A SNOW/RAIN MIX MAY BE MORE
PREVALENT AT KCMH/KLCK BUT EXPECT RAIN TO MIX IN AS THE
FRONTOGENETIC AREA BECOMES MORE W-E ORIENTED AND LIFTS INTO THE
NORTHERN METRO AREA.

ITS THE LATE DAY 4-6 PM TIME THAT WILL SEE A QUICK CHANGE TO A
DOMINANT SNOW TYPE ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT KDAY AND
KCMH/LCK. SRN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN PLAIN RAIN UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT.

MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL RISE TO VFR FOR A PERIOD IN THE SOUTH BUT
BY EVENING MVFR WILL BE AS GOOD AS IT GETS. IFR CIGS AND LIFR
VSBYS IN THE SNOW WILL HAMPER MOST AIR TRAVEL IN THE REGION
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AT 13-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT OVERNIGHT
AND CALM DOWN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. LOW CIGS MAY SCOUR
OUT AT KCVG/LUK AT THE TAIL END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD BUT WILL
LIKELY HOLD TOUGH ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ026-034-
     035.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ042>046-
     051>056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR OHZ060>065-072.
KY...NONE.
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR INZ050.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS






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