Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 301324
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
924 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH TRAVELS SLOWLY EASTWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST KILN SOUNDING SHOWING A PRETTY MOIST ENVIRONMENT OUT THERE
WITH PWATS AT 1.50" (NORMAL JUST ABOVE 1" FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
K INDEX WAS ALSO 35. HIGH RES MODELS ARE A BIT OVERDONE THIS
MORNING. LATEST HRRR DIDN`T INITIALIZE WELL WITH LATEST RAP
OVERDONE. THE NCEP WRF AND NSSL WRF SEEM TO BE DOING A GOOD JOB SO
FAR WITH MORNING RAIN AND SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PUSHED HIGHER POPS MORE
TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST CHANCE
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATER AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 12Z KILN
SOUNDING DATA ALONG WITH HIGH RES MODELS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE STRONG THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOWER INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LIMITED. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S STILL LOOK ON TRACK WITH 850 TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION->
AREA IS IN A PERSISTENTLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LATEST RAP SHOWS PRECIP DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT THIS APPEARS OVERDONE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER MISSOURI AT THE TAIL END OF A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TO ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP TODAY AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. BY LATER TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHED
TO OHIO BY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN
FORCING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES THAT WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK. A
POTENT LOW LEVEL JET...COPIOUS MOISTURE AND A BAND OF DEFORMATION
WILL ALL COME INTO PLAY TO PRODUCE PERHAPS AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES
OF RAIN IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TOWARD
THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE MOST FAVORABLE FORCING.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AND
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS
EVIDENT ON SUNDAY IN A REGIME OF DECREASING INSTABILITY. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN MONDAY ON A NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL VARY FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST
UP TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED IN
MOST LOCATIONS ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN TIMING RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
SLOWER SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE TUES-THURS TIME FRAME FROM EAST TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTH HAS HELPED KEEP A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE
BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MEANDER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS HOLDING SWAY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME...HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD BE
EXPECTED. TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...STARTING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY RISING TO AROUND 80
WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL
PERMIT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60
WED NIGHT...JUMPING TO THE MID 60S WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING...AFFECTING
ILN AND IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER COULD MOVE TOWARD CMH. WILL LIKELY HAVE
VCSH IN ATTM THROUGH 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING VFR THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CONTINUE VCTS IN TAFS. IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE MID TO LATE EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL RESIDE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS CLOSER TO A FRONT/LOW
PRESSURE...BUT CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN AFT 06Z. SOME
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS LOWERING CIGS TO AT LEAST MVFR. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW...AND KEPT CIGS IN VFR ATTM.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR OR IFR CIGS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HAINES
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HAINES
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BPP






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