Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS61 KILN 230757

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
257 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

High pressure will move east of the area today, as a weak mid-level
wave spread some clouds into the region. Southerly winds will
increase going into Friday, in advance of a cold front that will
move through the area Friday night. Another area of high pressure
will build in over the weekend, persisting into early next week.


Surface analysis indicates that a high pressure axis (extending
from the southern Mississippi Valley) is extending directly over
the ILN CWA. This has led to light winds and a dry boundary
layer. Upstream, there is a weakening mid-level trough axis
moving into the region. There is actually some warm advection
aloft behind this trough, and the ascent associated with it has
led to the development of a wide area of mid-level clouds. These
clouds will pass through the forecast area today -- thickest in
the northern sections, and allowing for more sun to the south.
As the surface high gradually moves east, this will set up some
light southerly flow over the CWA today, which will allow warm
advection and an increase in temperatures from yesterday. With
clouds in place and the flow being generally weak, this forecast
will keep things only in the lower to middle 40s. If the
southern CWA remains mostly clear all day, some upper 40s will
be possible.


As upper flow behind the trough axis eventually pivots from NW
to W through the rest of the short term forecast period,
surface high pressure will continue to move east, eventually
becoming centered (if rather elongated) across the southeastern
states. Surface flow will likely back to the ESE on Thursday
night, remaining light but not quite calm. These winds will
increase again on Friday, with warm advection beginning at all
levels, as low-level flow becomes enhanced by a tightening
pressure gradient. This will set up both Thursday night and
Friday as being slightly warmer than the preceding night and
day. There is definitely room for the temperature forecast on
Friday to still increase slightly, especially if it continues to
look like clouds in advance of the next front (covered in the
long term AFD section) will hold off until late in the day. This
forecast will allow for lower to middle 50, slightly higher than
the SREF mean, and close to a MAV/MET guidance compromise.


Mid level trough will dig east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
Friday night into Saturday. A cold front associated with this upper
level feature will push east through the region Friday night into
Saturday morning. Moisture is limited, so for the most part, clouds
will thicken ahead of the cold front. There is a slight chance for a
shower late in our northeast zones. Skies should become partly
cloudy/mostly sunny in the wake of the front on Saturday. Despite
some weak CAA, sunshine and early mild temperatures to start will
allow for highs in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

For Saturday night into Sunday, mid level trough is much more
progressive now, and associated secondary push of CAA is more
shunted to our northeast. As a result, clouds will be less, and it
is not expected to be as cold on Sunday as previously thought a few
days ago. Highs will range from the lower to mid 40s.

Surface high pressure will be over the Ohio Valley by Sunday evening.
It will then move east through Monday while a mid level ridge
traverses the region. Temperatures will modify into the upper 40s to
the lower 50s.

There continues to be a fair amount of spread among the models in
terms of the strength and timing of the next mid level trough and
associated cold front. Used a combination of the previous forecast
and 00Z blended forecast to account for this uncertainty. This
keeps low chance PoPs in the forecast for Tuesday/Tuesday night as a
front tries to push east across the region. Have gone with a dry
forecast for Wednesday. Tuesday is looking like the warmest day of
the extended, mid and upper 50s, with cooler temperatures forecast
for Wednesday.


VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with the
exception of some valley fog at KLUK early this morning.

Mid-level clouds will move through the area today, with no
precipitation expected. Winds out of the southwest will
generally remain at or below 10 knots. Winds will become light
again tonight, as skies become mostly clear.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.




NEAR TERM...Hatzos
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Hatzos is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.