Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250217
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
RELATIVELY QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM LATE FRIDAY
INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CUT OFF AND BEGIN SLOWLY SPINNING THROUGH THE AREA...MAKING FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THIS EVENING...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION STILL IS ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE IN CENTRAL INDIANA...LOWER
ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE DRY SO ONLY SPRINKLES ARE PROBABLY REACHING THE
GROUND.

BASED ON A DRY INITIAL ATMOSPHERE AND CURRENT LOCATION AND MOTION OF
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAVE SLOWED TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
RAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING RAIN TO EVENTUALLY
REACH ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT BASED ON UPSTREAM COVERAGE AND EXPECTED
FORCING. THUS KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS.

BEST INSTABILITY /BUT STILL WEAK/ WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. KEPT CHANCE THUNDER THERE BUT LOWERED TO ISOLATED THUNDER IN
THE NORTH. ADJUSTED HOURLY WINDS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES...BUT LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
THE TIMING FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LATER THIS EVENING. SO FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN MORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THESE PAST FEW HOURS. WIDESPREAD
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S APPEARS ATTAINABLE.

THE FRONT IS PROJECTED TO REACH THE AREA CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER
CHANCES LIE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND
INSTABILITY IS. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RAISE ALL POPS TO 100
PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND APPEARS THIS WILL BE A DECENT SOAKER WITH AT
LEAST AROUND HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE MOST LOCATIONS. WENT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MOS FOR HIGHS 50-56 CONSIDERING ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AT 12Z AND DRY
ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. BY NOON MOST THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE DRY. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT WITH DRY AND
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOMINATING THE PERIOD AND CLIMO
TEMPS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA. RAIN
IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS WELL AS SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION
TO THE UPPER LOW...IT LOOKS LIKE A FRONT COULD BE NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE IT SETS
UP STILL HAS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH THE EXTENDED UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IF THE WARM FRONT SETS UP TO THE NORTH AND
REMAINS THERE. CURRENT SOLUTIONS BRING COLD AIR IN AS THE STACKED
LOW SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES SO EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 250300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1017 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR
WORSE AFTER 04Z TONIGHT AS CURRENT MISSOURI ACTIVITY MOVES IN. LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR 2 HOUR TEMPO THUNDER
GROUPS AT THE ONSET AT ALL BUT LAF...WHERE IT MAY NOT BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING AFTER 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO VFR WITH ONLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED AT BEST.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN A LITTLE THIS EVENING WITH ANY GUSTS
LESS THEN 20 KNOTS. THEN...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
WEST AND GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS OR MORE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK

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