Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 302349 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
649 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Updated for 00Z aviation discussion


00Z TAF discussion:
Ceilings will continue to slowly rise through the evening with VFR
conditions returning after 01/03Z. A few showers and possibly a
thunderstorms will still be possible around KMEI and KHBG until
01/03Z. Southerly winds will become southwesterly after 01/06Z,
but speeds will continue at 10 to 20 knots and gusts at 20 to 30
knots, especially after 01/15Z./26/


.DISCUSSION...Tonight and Tomorrow: Cold front extends generally
along the Mississippi river this afternoon and is working its way
across the area. The bulk of the morning/early afternoon
convection has shifted off to the east of the area, but stratiform
and some embedded thunderstorms are occuring east of the I-55
corridor. Some shower/thunderstorm activity is developing behind
this stratiform shield, but feel these storms will remain below
strong/severe limits as the area has been worked over from the
morning/early afternoon storms.

The cold front will move across the area this afternoon through the
evening hours and this will bring in drier air along with clearing
skies as we get into the overnight hours. The winds will be breezy
out of the southwest after frontal passage overnight.

Monday will be a nice but breezy day across the ArkLaMiss with
mainly clear skies and highs in the mid/upper 70s. The winds will
gusty out of the southwest tomorrow afternoon, with gusts from 25-30
mph. /15/

Monday night through Sunday: Monday evening our winds aloft will
become near zonal as the closed low lifts farther to the northeast
across the Great Lakes region. A weak 1015mb surface high is
expected to be centered just off the southeast Louisiana coast.
The surface high will drift over southeast Mississippi and aid in
radiational cooling that will send temperatures into the lower 50s
Tuesday morning. Normal morning lows run in the upper 50s. Zonal
flow aloft will continue Tuesday as the surface high shifts
slightly east. Under decent insolation, temperatures will warm
into the low to mid 80s, which is a few degrees warmer than
normal. The dry weather will last into Wednesday morning but our
winds aloft will back to the southwest and waa will strengthen
over our west in advance of a northern stream shortwave digging
over the Plains. The GFS is perhaps the most aggressive with this
system in closing a low off over Arkansas by Thursday morning and
generating a deeper 1103mb surface low that looks to track across
or northwest zones Wednesday night. Wl start off Wednesday morning
with a PWAT less around three quarters of an inch but by evening
ahead of the cold front, models show PWATs surging to near two
inches across our southwest. The GFS and Canadian depict strongest
convection across our southern zones and south Wednesday night.
Considering the instability and shear, a few strong to severe
storms with heavy rainfall look possible. The GFS appears to be
the outlier this model run with a less progressive evolution of
the system. Model consensus ends the main rain chances over our
CWA late Thursday afternoon although an amplified upper level
trough will remain over our region until lifting out Saturday. As
a result low chances of light rain will continue over our
northeast through Friday. Elsewhere, dry weather is expected
Thursday evening through Sunday. Cooler than normal temperatures
are expected Thursday through Saturday morning. Highs Thursday and
Friday will be in the 60s at most locations. /22/


Jackson       52  78  53  83 /  15   0   0   3
Meridian      54  78  49  83 /  45   0   0   3
Vicksburg     51  78  52  84 /   9   0   0   3
Hattiesburg   53  81  51  85 /  29   0   0   1
Natchez       51  78  53  83 /  10   0   0   1
Greenville    51  76  54  81 /   8   0   0   4
Greenwood     52  75  51  81 /  13   0   0   4




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