Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 310103 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
805 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE... A WELCOMED COLD FRONT IS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART
OF THE REGION CURRENTLY...WITH STILL A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STRAY
STORM POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE EVENING. ALL THE POTENT AND
GUSTY STORMS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
WEAKENED WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING DOWN TOWARD THE
COAST. THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
DRYING WITH CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH CLEARING. DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR FILTERING SOUTH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL BE EVIDENT COME
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ACTUALLY HAVING A CHANCE TO
MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR. THE CURRENT INCOMING DRIER AIR WILL THANKFULLY STICK
AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AROUND
PIB/HBG...BUT OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT ALL
SITES WITH NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. BECAUSE OF THESE WINDS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR DAYBREAK CONDITIONS IS PRETTY LOW. TOMORROW
WILL BE DRY WITH MORE VFR CONDITIONS AND ACTUALLY RELATIVELY FEW
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND A LITTLE
GUSTY AT TIMES. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER IN THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING PAST 23-00Z. BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS
ARE ALREADY MOVING INTO S/SE MS WITH SOME AREAS IN NE LA STORMS
DEVELOPING FROM SOME AMBIENT LIFT/HIGH INSTABILITY. AREAS IN THE
S/SE WHERE HOT TEMPS/BETTER FLOW ALOFT...SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. DUE TO DEWPOINTS NOT REALLY
MIXING MUCH THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING...WE WERE ABLE
TO REACH NEAR 105-110 DEGREES HEAT INDICES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
DUE TO THE FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING/HEAT ADVISORY WILL ONLY CONTINUE
UNTIL 00Z.

COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE S TONIGHT...BRINGING MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF ACROSS THE REGION. ANOMALOUS DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT...JUST AROUND 1-1.25 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY. DUE TO DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOWS TO GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S
AREAWIDE WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING TONIGHT. TOMORROW PW`S WILL
ONLY BE AROUND AN INCH AND WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVING IN...EXPECT
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 3-6 DEGREES COOLER MAINLY IN LOW/MID 90S.

AS THE TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS GRADUALLY DEEPENS AND NRLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR SEEN IN AWHILE. PW`S
WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY LOW TO NEAR RECORD LOW MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...WHICH WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FOR SUCH WARM TEMPS
THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL SOMEWHAT
AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS..HIGHS WILL STILL ONLY RANGE IN THE MID 90S.
SOME MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK IN THE REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING
BUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. RELEVANT PORTION OF THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS
ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...THROUGH NEXT WEEK...LIGHT MID LEVEL NW FLOW REGIME WILL
BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AS RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED AND BROAD
TROFFINESS MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE...
MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE AIRMASS CHANGE THAT OCCURRED ON FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING DRY
SLUGS OF DRY AIR SOUTHWARD. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE EASILY ATTAINED...BUT WITH IT BEING MORE OF
A DRY HEAT...HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR TEMP.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR
SE...HOWEVER...IN BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. /26/

FIRE WEATHER... COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL DROP MOISTURE
VALUES THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT RH`S TO FALL NEAR 30%
RANGE WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20MPH. DUE TO LITTLE RAINFALL
AND DRY CONDITIONS OVERALL...EXPECT SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO BE
POSSIBLE THE NEXT TWO DAYS. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  68  95 /  11   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      69  93  65  94 /  10   1   0   3
VICKSBURG     69  95  67  96 /  14   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   74  95  70  96 /  21  11   4   6
NATCHEZ       71  93  69  94 /  18   4   0   3
GREENVILLE    69  94  68  95 /   4   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     68  93  66  94 /   5   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/DC/26



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.