Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 061740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1140 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion


18Z TAF discussion:
MVFR and IFR conditions will persist today at all TAF locations due
to low CIGs. Ceilings may improve to VFR for an brief period of time
but will quickly degrade once again. Patchy dense fog and low CIGs
will result in prevailing IFR conditions tonight at locations south
of I-20. Visbys will begin to improve after sunrise tomorrow but CIGs
are expected to remain below 1500 ft throughout the 24-hr TAF
cycle. /JPM3/


Today/Tonight: Light to moderate shower activity continues along the
Highway 82 corridor this hour as a mid level shortwave pivots
through the region. This activity will continue to taper off through
the morning as the shortwave continues away from the area. Temps
have actually increased overnight in SE quarter of the CWA as the
warm sector finally infiltrated that area. However, there is still
virtually no instability, and upper level support for additional
convective development continues to retreat.

Low clouds will stick around for much of the day as low level
cyclonic convergence makes the most of moisture persisting in the
sub 850 mb layer. This will hold temps down again today, with a
small diurnal range from this morning`s lows to today`s highs. Flow
will become more divergent from west to east during the late
afternoon/early evening, which should allow the stratus to begin to
break up some. However, interminable low level moisture will allow
considerable coverage of clouds to remain through tonight. Weak but
steady CAA will yield seasonably cool conditions Wednesday morning.

Wednesday through Monday...Wednesday morning a weak dry cold front
will be stalled along the Highway 82 corridor. There may be a few
sprinkles by afternoon along this stalled front but, light rain
chances will increase Wednesday night ahead of a much stronger cold
front that move into our northwest most zones during the evening
and then push south of our area before noon Thursday. Breezy north
winds in the wake of this cold front usher in much colder and drier
air. Highs Thursday will be held in the 40s at most locations. The
center of the cold airmass, a 1040mb high will become centered over
the central plains by Friday morning. This will bring us some of the
coldest temperatures so far this season with morning lows in the low
to mid 20s. Normal lows run in the upper 30s. A north wind of 5 to 10
mph will likely continue Thursday night as temperatures drop into the
20s. This will result in wind chill temperatures in the teens.
Although these wind chill temperatures will be above local advisory
criteria precautions should be taken to limit exposure to outdoor
pets and animals. The large surface high will shift east across our
CWA Friday becoming centered over the southern Appalachians by
Saturday morning. Coldest temperatures will be over east Mississippi
where lows will again be in the lower 20 with mid to upper 20 west.
Friday and Saturday mornings will be the coldest mornings of the
period. The surface high will continue shifting east Saturday
resulting in return flow back across our region. Zonal flow aloft
Saturday will back slightly Sunday ahead of the next approaching
shortwave. The GFS is faster and stronger with the shortwave trough
and surface cold front than the ECMWF but, rain chances return to our
CWA Sunday and continue into Monday morning until the front moves
through. A return to cooler and drier weather is expected Monday
through Tuesday. /22/


Jackson       54  43  61  41 /  11   5   7  41
Meridian      57  43  61  44 /  11   5   3  28
Vicksburg     54  42  60  41 /   9   7   9  41
Hattiesburg   59  46  66  48 /   7   3   3  23
Natchez       55  46  63  42 /   6   7   9  43
Greenville    52  40  54  36 /   7   6  11  33
Greenwood     52  39  56  37 /   9   7   9  31





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