Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 220127 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
827 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FINALLY DEVELOPED THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE PINE BELT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND INDICATIONS FROM THE LATEST
HRRR THAT SOME ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS INTO MOST OF THE NIGHT PERIOD.
THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER TONIGHT WHERE MORE PATCHY FOG/LOW
CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP. LOOK FOR SOME VCTS IN THE EASTERN TAF AREAS
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EVENING. /CME/17/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/
SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS BACK W AND THE
UPPER LOW RETROGRADES BACK TO THE W TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS PWATS CLIMB NEAR 1.7-1.9 INCHES AND THE REGION WILL HAVE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WENT NEAR EURO POPS FOR
TUESDAY...WHICH BRINGS MORE COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE I-55 CORRIDOR AND
E. DUE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND CLOUDS/STORMS AND TEMPS
ALOFT...EURO SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON HIGHS...MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE DELTA. THUS...WENT WITH EURO AS MAVMOS
SEEMED TOO HIGH AND NOT HANDLING RECENT RAINFALL AND OTHER FACTORS
WELL. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING
AROUND 03Z...MAINLY CONFINED TO E/SE MS. DUE TO CLOUDS ALONG/W OF
I-55...WENT NEAR EURO FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE AREAS IN THE
E WILL BE COOLER.

WEDNESDAY WILL MORE OF THE SAME AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
RETROGRADE TO THE W/SW WHILE BECOMING MORE ELONGATED. EXPECT
INCREASING SHOWERS/STORMS FROM E TO W WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING
TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. WENT NEAR EURO POPS DUE TO S/WV LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN THE REGION. HIGHS WENT NEAR MAV/EURO BLEND AS MAVMOS
CONTINUED TO SEEM TO HIGH AND NOT SUPPORTED BY TEMPS ALOFT AND
CLOUDS STORMS IN THE REGION. HIGHS COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE
E/SE DUE TO SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN
THE LOWER 70S...NEAR EURO/MAV BLEND THURSDAY MORNING.

H5 UPPER RIDGE HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND AMPLIFY THE TROUGHING OVER THE NRN CONUS WEDNESDAY. A
S/WV WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT TO THE S THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY TOWARD
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. AS THE UPPER S/WV DIVES INTO
AR/TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STEEP LAPSE RATES/VERTICAL TOTALS IN 27-29
DEG. C AND 20-25KTS 0-3KM AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LOOK TO BE SUPPORTIVE
OF INCREASING STORMS IN THIS REGION. PREVIOUS POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOK GOOD IN THE NW DELTA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOME OF THOSE
STORMS COULD SNEAK IN BUT BE ON A GRADUAL DOWNTREND. DUE TO SOME GOOD
LAPSE RATES/BULK SHEAR ALOFT IN THE NW DELTA...WILL BE MONITORING FOR
MENTIONING IN THE HWO. DUE TO THE MODELS JUST BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON
THIS THE PAST FEW RUNS...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW. /DC/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK...

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE INTENSIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLAMISS WITH H850
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 22 DEG C OVER THE DELTA REGION. THIS WILL
BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED
LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS IN WHAT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY COOL JULY. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS AND THE HOT DAYTIME BIAS OF THE
GFS MEX MOS...HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER ECMWF
MOS. HOWEVER...THE MODEL OUTPUT IS CERTAINLY MORE PRONOUNCED WITH
THE SIGNAL FOR HOT CONDITIONS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOMALOUS NORTHWEST FLOW MAY HELP
TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE AND BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE
ARKLAMISS WITH GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. /EC/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/17/CME/DC/EC





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