Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 191133 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
533 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:

Expect scattered to occasionally broken clouds in a range from
2500 to 10000 feet to move gradually into the region from the
southwest through the day and into the evening hours. VFR
conditions are expected to primarily prevail but some brief MVFR
ceilings cannot be ruled out starting tonight at GLH. No
precipitation is anticipated with surface winds, after being
variable to calm early this morning, trending to south at a range
from 5 to 15 mph midday into the evening./BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight:

It has been another cold night across the region, although
fortunately not quite on par with the brutal cold experienced the
last few days. Despite the Arctic air mass modifying above ground
substantially in the past 24 hours the very good radiational
cooling conditions through the bulk of the night have been able to
maximize cooling potential. Lows will end up ranging from the
upper teens to lower 20s in most locations with a few spots in
east central MS managing to sneak into the mid teens.

But changes are afoot. A a check of the satellite currently shows
a thin mid stratus layer advancing east through southwest zones
and approaching the heart of the region. These clouds are on the
cusp of warmth and moisture advection aloft and are a further
signal the air mass will be changing greatly over the next 24 to
48 hours. Temperatures are already warming some underneath these
clouds as radiational cooling is interrupted. Unfortunately (for
me), these clouds are not well-handled by models and will make
for a tricky temp forecast through tonight. Previously forecasted
temperatures assumed a good bit of sun to help warm things up
after the cold start. Of course clouds will hinder the warmup. I
lowered previous highs by a few degrees in many areas but still
anticipate enough sunny breaks in most areas to deliver highs
this afternoon 5 to 10 degrees warmer than was the case yesterday.

The combination of a weak upper low cutting off from the flow
(just to our south) and increasing southerly flow off the deck
will ensure some clouds remain, or even increase, for
tonight...especially along and west of the MS river. An isolated
sprinkle cannot be ruled out in these latter spots but the
official forecast was kept dry. Enough breaks in the clouds are
expected to bring light freezes (lows down to just 32 degrees) for
some central and eastern zones, but this certainly is a big
improvement from the past few days, and even tonight. /BB/

Saturday through next Thursday:

Warmer and overall quiet conditions still look to continue through
much of the the upcoming weekend. Highs during this time will
steadily climb from the mid 50s to mid 60s of Saturday, into the
mid 60s and around 70 come Sunday afternoon. Lows will follow suit
as they`ll range from around 40 to the lower 50s Saturday night,
to the upper 40s and middle 50s Sunday night.

Increasing warm advection and moisture Saturday into Sunday, will
result in increasing clouds throughout the course of the weekend.
While some mainly light warm advection-type showers are possible
west of the Mississippi River by Sunday afternoon, rain chances
areawide will significantly increase from west to east across the
forecast area late Sunday night through midday Monday. This will be
as a result of a cold front racing west to east through the CWA
during this time.

A few thunderstorms will be possible with this front, primarily
along it.  While deep wind shear continues to look adequate with the
system, instability remains too meager at the moment to have any
confidence in these few storms becoming severe.  Of course this will
continue to be monitored over the coming days.

The cold front and associated rainfall looks to exit east and out of
the forecast area through the course of the afternoon on Monday.
High pressure will quickly build into the CWA in its wake. This will
range from the mid 50s to mid 60s Monday, but decrease to the mid
50s and lower 60s on Tuesday.  The mercury will fall into the 30s
both nights.

Some clouds will build back into the region on Wednesday as a
disturbance is forecast to brush the forecast area from the south.
Rain is currently not anticipated across the CWA with this system.
Clouds will depart the region overnight Wednesday, with mostly clear
skies expected on Thursday.  Temperatures both afternoons will
generally range from the mid 50s to around 60.  Lows Wednesday night
will again be in the 30s, but will warm a bit into the upper 30s and
lower 40s Thursday night. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       53  34  62  47 /   3   6   8   6
Meridian      53  33  60  40 /   0   3   6   2
Vicksburg     50  35  63  49 /   6   8  10   8
Hattiesburg   54  31  64  43 /   0   2   7   2
Natchez       52  37  64  51 /   6  10  12   8
Greenville    45  35  57  48 /   6   8  11  11
Greenwood     48  37  59  48 /   6   7   7   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

19/BB



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