Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250801

National Weather Service Jackson KY
401 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016

Mid level ridge axis will slowly work eastward over the next 24 to
36 hours, keeping our weather dry through Wednesday. Temperatures
have settled into the 30s in the colder valley locations early
this morning. Despite the chilly start to the day, afternoon highs
should rebound nicely with 850mb temperatures a degree or two
higher than yesterday. This will put highs generally into the mid
60s across northern Kentucky to around 70 in southern Kentucky.
Model soundings show some very dry air just off the surface that
will likely mix down into the afternoon and evening hours with
dewpoints crashing to around 30. While the ridge will start to
move east of the area tonight, we should remain under its
influence and would expect at a minimum for valley locations to
decouple. Given the drier air in place, it seems reasonable that a
few of the eastern valleys could approach the freezing mark.
However, it appears temperatures for most will stay in the mid to
upper 30s with lower 40s on the ridges. While temperatures may
stay above cross over temperatures tonight, limiting fog or frost
formation, we are close enough to freezing in some of our far
eastern valleys to include a mention of some patchy frost late
tonight. By Wednesday, heights continue to build with 850mb
temperatures warming to just over +12C. This would support highs
into the low to mid 70s, making for another beautiful eastern
Kentucky fall day. Went slightly under guidance for dewpoints on
Wednesday as models are bringing moisture back into the area much
too fast, despite the southwest winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016

An upper trough axis will swing through the Great Lakes to
Tennessee Valley Wednesday night, as a surface low tracks across
the upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. Moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico will advect into eastern Kentucky downstream of
these features as an attendant cold front moves toward the lower
Ohio Valley, bringing a chance for showers to the Bluegrass
region near or shortly after midnight. Have inserted isolated
thunder mention at this juncture as elevated instability continues
to look to be present with MUCAPE values of a few hundred J/kg.
Surface-based instability of 500-1000 J/kg may be realized
Thursday afternoon ahead of the cool front before a secondary
surge of energy across the lower Great Lakes along with a surface
ridge building into the Ohio Valley push the front into eastern
Kentucky. Deep layer shear of 25-35 knots through the afternoon
may be enough to generate a couple of sustained/organized
updrafts, capable of producing gusty downdraft winds underneath
any shower or storm.

High pressure parking overhead will lead to a crisp Friday morning as
valley temperatures bottom out in the mid-upper 30s with ridgetops
remaining in the low-mid 40s. However, a quick return of warm air
advection will take place Friday morning/afternoon as an upper
high builds across Texas with anticyclonic flow stretching through
eastern Kentucky. Following high temperatures in the mid-upper 60s
Thursday, Friday looks to potentially be the beginning of a
prolonged warm period as highs climb into the upper 60s to mid

Upper ridging looks to continue to meander much of the Gulf
of Mexico through the Mississippi Valley and Great Plains through
the weekend as northern stream energy traverses south central
to southeastern Canada into the northern United States. Current
trends have pointed toward warm and dry conditions remaining in
place for the most part across eastern Kentucky into next week,
but will have to monitor southern extent/strength of
aforementioned energy regarding sensible weather locally.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Mainly VFR conditions and light winds will be seen through Tuesday
night. Some patchy dense valley fog is expected overnight, but
should not impact the TAF sites.




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