Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 300755
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...A SEPARATE SLUG OF MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE FL
AND GA COASTLINE. THIS SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE A SEPARATE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH FL
COAST TRACKS NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO THE AL AND FL PANHANDLE
TRACKING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS WELL...THIS BEING
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THIS CLUSTER OF CIRCULATIONS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING EAST WILL PROVIDE
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL BE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ACCORDING TO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...AN EVER
PRESENT WEAK MID LEVEL CAP SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE UNDER THIS
PATTERN BUT STILL WITH ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY DEPENDENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF ANY GOOD SURFACE GRADIENT IN
THIS PATTERN. SO WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
TERRAIN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING WITH TIME THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING WILL BE INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN
THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE...WHILE MITIGATING SOME OF THE TYPICAL SHORTCOMINGS GIVEN
THE PATTERN.

THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BOUTS OF MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED PERIODS. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW
90 DEGREE READINGS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH DAWN WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. THOUGH...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER LINGERING OVER
EAST KENTUCKY...FORECASTING THE ONSET WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT.
HAVE USED A TEMPO GROUP AT EACH SITE BESIDES JKL AS FOG SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE VALLEYS. ALSO...DESPITE SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR TO IFR AT WORST. WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS INTO THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
THE NORM. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY 18Z
AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE A BIT IN
QUESTION SO WILL GO WITH VCTS AT THE SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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