Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 062009
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
309 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

Cool damp weather to continue throughout the afternoon and
evening hours today, although the ongoing rain is tapering off
quite a bit faster than previously forecast. The HRRR model has
the last of the rain out of eastern Kentucky by between 0 and 1Z
this evening. Based on the latest radar trends, and the HRRR data,
have decided to speed up precipitation evolution across eastern
Kentucky by several hours, with the last isolated showers or
patches of drizzle moving out of the area between 3 and 4Z. The
rain may actually end even faster than this, but did not feel
comfortable going completely dry as quickly as the HRRR is
currently suggesting. The latest model data has eastern Kentucky
experiencing a dry period of weather on Wednesday as the current
upper trough continues to move off well to our east. There could
be a brief period of light rain and snow showers Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning, as a second upper level low moves by
just to our south. At this time precipitation probabilities late
Wednesday into Thursday look be quite low, 15 to 24 percent on
average, so only isolated rain/snow showers are expected at this
time. With such a small chance of precipitation expected, decided
not to include any snowfall accumulations at this time.

Temperatures should be running slightly below normal tomorrow and
tomorrow night, with daytime highs on Wednesday in the 40s and
overnight lows ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Tonights
lows should be at or slightly above normal due to the influence
of the expected widespread cloud cover. Tonights lows should be in
the low to mid 30s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

While not official by the calendar, winter will arrive on
Thursday as a very cold airmass filters into the region. Models
continue to back away from the precipitation potential on Thursday
as a weak wave forms on the polar front to our southeast, but too
far away to produce much precipitation this far west. Will
maintain a 20 PoP for our southeast counties, but that`s it.
Temperatures will likely not rise much on Thursday, remaining in
the mid 30s for most locations. Cold advection engages Thursday
night with a better upslope component to the winds developing and
continuing into the day on Friday. Models show sufficient moisture
in the -8c to -12c layer for snow flurries to develop, and I would
not be too surprised if we don`t eventually need to add some
isolated snow showers into the forecast for our higher terrain.
Whatever the case, Friday will be our coldest day since last
February with highs remaining below freezing for most locations.
Low temperatures Friday night are still a little tough to figure
out as despite the fact high pressure moves overhead, some mid and
high level cloudiness may disrupt prime radiational cooling
conditions.

Our weather pattern transitions quickly to southwest flow aloft
over the weekend as a shortwave traverses the Pacific Northwest
and northern Plains states. As a result, temperatures will
moderate out of the freezer to the mid 30s Saturday and mid to
upper 40s by Sunday. The shortwave will continue across the Great
Lakes and into New England into early next week forcing a surface
cold front through the region. Timing differences remain, but are
not as extreme as yesterday, and models appear to be settling on a
Sunday night frontal passage. Was able to nix PoPs for Saturday
night, and ramp them up Sunday into Sunday night. Will continue to
mention a rain/snow mix at onset Sunday morning over our northern
counties, but that is looking like a minimal concern with the bulk
of the precipitation not entering the area until Sunday afternoon
when it will fall as rain. This system moves through quickly on
Monday with decreasing PoPs and a brief cool down which may allow
some of the precip to end as snow or a rain/snow mix into Monday
night. High pressure is then progged to build in on Tuesday with
seasonable conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

Complex TAF forecast today and tonight. Widespread rain showers
will continue to move across eastern Kentucky through 21 or 22Z,
before tapering off to scattered and then isolated showers between
23Z today and around 4Z tonight. Patchy drizzle will be possible
behind the back edge of the rain showers this evening and tonight.
Conditions at the TAF sites will vary from IFR to MVFR depending
on the intensity of the rain. Widespread MVFR conditions are not
expected to set in until after 5Z tonight. The clouds will be slow
to exit the area, so BKN to OVC CIGS will be possible through
around 13Z tomorrow. Winds will continue to shift from the
southwest to northwest over the next several hours with sustained
values at around 10 mph.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR



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