Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 022114
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
414 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WITH
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.25 INCHES WILL BE
COMMON...WHICH COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT IN PLACE...ANY CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO FORM ALONG LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS
SEABREEZE FRONTS WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN
INCH GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN A BIT ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA...SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL TEND TO DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE DAY AND LAST LATER INTO THE
EVENING. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
AREA...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY...KEEPING SCATTERED DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IN
PLACE. THIS TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHEAR OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL BE PLACE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WILL
GENERALLY RANGE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW CLOUD DECKS RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR LINE.
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITH THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM
SW TO NE. MOST CELLS ARE SHORT LIVED BUT CAN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO IFR VIS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE. MCB
AND HUM COULD SEE LIGHT FOG NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING
IT TO LAST TOO LONG.

MEFFER

&&

.MARINE...

A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AT 2 TO 4 FEET OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW AS A SWELL TRAIN OF 1 TO 2
FEET EMANATING FROM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MEXICO...THE SWELL WILL DIMINISH AND
EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN TO CALMER SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT..

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  93  72  93 /  30  50  30  50
BTR  74  93  73  93 /  30  50  30  50
ASD  75  92  74  92 /  30  50  30  50
MSY  77  90  77  91 /  30  50  30  50
GPT  76  92  75  91 /  30  50  30  50
PQL  74  93  73  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

32




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.