Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 122146
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
346 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY AS EXPECTED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
CU/ALTO DECK FROM THE GULF COAST TO JUST NORTH OF THE LIX/JAN CWA
BORDER IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THEN CLEAR FROM THERE NORTH. THAT
INTERFACE OF CLOUDS AND CLEARING IS RIGHT ABOUT WHERE AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONCUR
WITH THIS BY INDICATING A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN DEWPOINTS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ENTERING THE NORTHERN FRIDGES OF THE CWA AROUND SUNSET
AND THEN CLEARING PLAQUEMINES PARISH BY SUNRISE. WITH SUCH LIMITED
MOISTURE IN PLACE ...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND COOLER
TEMPS THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

.LONG TERM...

THE WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THEN SHIFTS EAST. COLDER AIR MASS MOVING IN WILL DROP TEMPS BY
15 TO 20 DEGREES SATURDAY BEFORE THEY QUICKLY BEGIN TO MODERATE ON
SUNDAY. IN FACT...MIGHT EVEN SEE FREEZING TEMPS IN A FEW EASTERN
ZONES IN MISSISSIPPI.

ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING SUNDAY WITH RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL START
PUMPING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AND BRING TEMPS UP. HIGHS WILL
ALREADY BE ALMOST BACK TO NORMAL BY THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER
VALUES PER MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL RISE TO ABOVE AN INCH. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE RACING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
AND THEN THE GULF COAST MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LEESIDE TROUGH IN TEXAS WILL GET PICKED UP BY THE UPPER LOW AND WILL
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND MS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN SYSTEM WITH STRONG WINDS RIGHT OFF THE SFC AND
UPPER LEVEL WINDS WELL OVER 100KTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SLIGHTLY
MORE INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE. THIS IN ADDITION TO AMPLE WIND SHEAR IN PLACE
WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE LEAST WOULD GET SOME BRIEF DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT AND BRING GUSTS TO 30- 40 MPH WITH SOME OF THE ACTIVITY.
KEPT PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS OF UPWARDS OF 80 PERCENT.
REGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE VERY PROGRESSIVE AND OUT OF THE
AREA QUICKLY. WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER HIGH MOVES IN.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. HIGHER WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD WILL CONTINUE TO EASE AS THEY SHIFT TOWARDS NORTHWEST TO
NORTH THIS EVENING...THEN RISE BACK TO 8 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS /HIGHER AT KNEW/ AS THEY BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST 05Z TO 16Z
SATURDAY. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND GET
SUPPRESSED TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING IN EASTERN COASTAL WATERS AT
MIDNIGHT AND SPREADING SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL ZONES AFTER 3 AM. SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IS IN EFFECT IN OTHER ADJACENT
WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED NEAR 15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND WINDS VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

WINDS WILL RISE BACK TO EXERCISE CAUTION THEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES EAST FROM
TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONGEST NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BEHIND FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. 22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE PEARL RIVER AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  41  55  30  61 /   0   0   0  10
BTR  45  58  35  62 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  45  57  35  62 /   0   0   0  10
MSY  49  57  40  63 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  45  56  35  60 /   0   0   0  10
PQL  44  56  32  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ555-
     572-575.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ557-577.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ572-
     575.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ577.

&&

$$


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