Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 261236
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
736 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

An increase in ridging aloft is evident as temperatures have
warmed significantly overnight around 500mb. This has led to an
increase in freezing levels to around 15.5kft, and allowed for a
sharp decrease in lapse rates and overall instability in the mid
to upper levels of the atmosphere. Lapse rates above 850mb are a
low 5.4C/km which indicates a relatively stable airmass aloft.
This is also reflected in the low mixed layer CAPE value of only
456 J/KG this morning. Below 850mb, a pool of moisture continues
to exist due to sustained southerly flow and some weak low level
instability is also present. With this in mind, most convection
today should be rather low topped. However, with the dry airmass
in place aloft, some gusty winds could occur with these showers.
This is supported by the relatively high DCAPE value of 877 J/KG.
32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  69  90  69 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  89  69  90  71 /  30  10  10  10
ASD  88  69  90  70 /  30  10  10  10
MSY  88  72  89  74 /  40  10  10  10
GPT  87  71  89  71 /  30  10  10  10
PQL  88  68  90  68 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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