Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 021138
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MEMPHIS...BUT ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IS THE COOLEST AREA WHERE CORNING AND WALNUT RIDGE ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE ACROSS MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LAPS LI`S ARE BELOW -2C ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH CAPE 350 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPS RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7.5C SO HAIL WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SO
HOPEFULLY THAT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN
PERFORMING WELL UNTIL YESTERDAY...AND DOESN`T SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDEL ON THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING.

IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY APPROACH 80 ONE MORE
DAY THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT ANOTHER
NUDGE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WIDESPREAD
LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW 50S MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENTLY A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE FA
AND WILL SOON IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE PREVAILED SHRA AND VCTS THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPO TO HANDLE TSRA AND LOWER VISBYS TO MVFR CAT.
GIVEN THE POOR HANDLING OF CONVECTION BY MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING IS LOW. WINDS
GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS
TODAY...AND SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO BE NEAR 5 KTS BY END OF PERIOD.
VCSH INCLUDED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT DROPPED LATE IN PERIOD AS FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF REGION.


ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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