Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 261725
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

UPDATE...

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WERE
MADE. CLOUD COVERAGE HAS BEEN RAISED AND EXPANDED DUE TO A
MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO AREA WIDE DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. RAIN CHANCES WERE ADDED AFTER 00Z FOR
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS DUE TO THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.

JPM3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 516 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE MID
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT WET CONDITIONS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER AT THIS TIME...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OUT MILD ON SATURDAY
BUT COOL TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH EAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A RETURN TO DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER FOR MONDAY. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FILTERING OVER THE MID SOUTH FOR MID
WEEK. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT...SO ONLY EXPECTING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MOISTURE WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY NEW YEARS DAY.
THIS MOISTURE SHOULD OVERRUN THE MODIFYING ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE. AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION BY NEXT FRIDAY HELPING TO TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TYPES TO
ALL RAIN. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...SO STAY
TUNED.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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