Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 311754
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT EAST TODAY. ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DON/T REALLY EXPECT ANY SUN TO
PEAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS AS THEY ARE PRETTY THICK. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD...NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

EARLY THIS MORNING...COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S. MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAD
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS MORNINGS FORECAST FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST OF
SHOWERS BEGINNING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR TODAY...THE MONTH OF JANUARY WILL END ON A TRANQUIL NOTE...A
CHARACTERISTIC WE HAVE SEEN MUCH OF THIS MONTH. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST SUNSHINE OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHEAST MS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MO. A COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE INTO TX. SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AFFECTING MAINLY THOSE
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR DURING THE
EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE TO THE
IN AND KY BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP INTO THE MIDSOUTH MOVING INTO WEST TN AND NORTH MS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF OF INTERSTATE 40.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY EVENING.
WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
ON STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...BUT A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
INTERACTING WITH THE COLD AIR MAY CAUSE A  FEW FLURRIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE TN
RIVER VALLEY WHERE ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY ARE EXPECTED.
WIND CHILL READINGS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT.

A VERY COLD DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE KY
AND MO BORDER NOT GETTING ABOVE FREEZING. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON.

A COLD MORNING IS FORECAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS NEAR THE TN RIVER OF WEST TN TO THE 20S ELSEWHERE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY WITH WINDS TURING TO
THE SOUTH AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 40S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY CAUSE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT DURING THE TIME PERIOD...THUS
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW. BASICALLY CAN JUST SAY ATTM
THAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY
CHANGING TO SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE
NORTH. A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MEANWHILE...MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTH. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE
NORTHERN STREAM HAVING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEATHER
KEEPING PRECIPITATION SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
INDICATES THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH HAVING MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON
MIDSOUTH WEATHER FOLLOWED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...THUS SHOWING MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION. IF PRECIPITATION DOES SPREAD INTO THE AREA...PRECIP TYPE
WILL BE A PROBLEM AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH POSSIBLY
CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS IS BASICALLY WHAT THE
BLENDED FORECAST INDICATES...SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WITH RAIN
POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
CIGS WILL LOWER AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT
CONDS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MID MORNING...01/14Z-01/17Z. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY SUNDAY MORNING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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