Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 262317
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
517 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE A
BROAD AREA OF POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STEADY OR HAVE
SLIGHTLY FALLEN TODAY. AS OF 3 PM CST...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
30S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN
THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID
SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WIND CHILL VALUES MAY APPROACH ZERO LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THINK READINGS MAY REMAIN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS
AND ISSUE ONE IF WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN UP THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40
WITH A MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40 BY SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AS MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT
WEEK AND STALL OUT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM
EARLY TO MID WEEK ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN AND SUBSEQUENT CONFIDENCE OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MAY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
SOUTH OF I-40.

CJC

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AT MEM AS A BAND OF 1500
CEILINGS WORKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
THAT THESE CLOUDS BACKBUILD BUT OPTED TO SHOW A SLOW RISE THROUGH
03Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 12Z. THE SAME SCENARIO IS
DEPICTED AT OTHER TAF SITES WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSESION ACROSS
EASTERN TERMINALS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY HANG ON
THROUGH 18-21Z TOMORROW AT TUP AND MKL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE BY 12Z TOMORROW AT ALL TAF SITES.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


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