Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 310442
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
THIS IS KICKING OFF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH USHERING IN THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE FALL
SEASON SO FAR.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY... TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
KNQA RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL... DOUBT ANY PRECIP IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO A REALLY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

SHORT TERM...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS BEING INTRODUCED IN OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE REGION WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE NORTH. WE WILL SEE OUR COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON AS A RESULT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTING
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST IN THE AREAS NEAREST
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 925 MB TEMPS AT -2 AND 850MB AT -4 AREA WIDE
CORRELATE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MEMPHIS METRO MAY BE THE ONLY
CLIMATE STATION TO ESCAPE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH 9 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AND BACK TO NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE SLOWING OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO TEXAS
APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL LEAVE US
WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JPM3

&&

AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTENING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
DURING THE PAST HOUR...MKL TERMINAL BEARING THE BRUNT OF THIS
ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL ITSELF. AFTER THIS
PASSES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
12Z TOMORROW INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TOWARD 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









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