Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 221458
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
958 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEAR OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMING
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE WARMING WITH THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE.
SO NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.  TLJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME MINOR VISBY REDUCTIONS ARE OCCURRING AT MKL THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT. ANY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14Z THIS MORNING AS MIXING BEGINS AFTER SUNUP. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE VALID
PERIOD...INCLUDING MKL AFTER 14Z.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







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