Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 211228

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018


Updated for 12z TAF discussion


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018/


Early morning temperatures are above the normal high temperatures
for this time of year...a stark change from where we were just a
few days ago. Temperatures are mainly in the low to middle 50s.
Low clouds and strengthening southerly winds will likely prevent
temperatures from falling much lower prior to sunrise. Short term
high resolution guidance continues to bring scattered light rain
showers across the Midsouth this morning...but so far satellite
and radar does not show any indication of that happening.
Will advertise low pops during the day, but feel like most of the
area will remain dry until tonight.

A deep trough continues to deepen over the Desert Southwest with
zonal flow across the Great Lakes and Northeastern US. Over the
next 24 hours the trough will shift into the Southern Plains
resulting in strong cyclogenesis over western portions of Texas
and Oklahoma. This will strengthen the southerly flow/warm
advection across the Midsouth increasing our chance of rain
showers and ushering in higher dewpoints ahead of the approaching
trough. Winds may gust to 25 mph tonight. Guidance is showing
slightly higher precipitable water than previous runs...but still
not to the level that it is concerning. Dew points may briefly
surge into the upper 50s between sunset and midnight tonight...but
should fall back into the low to middle 50s by morning. As a
result...from a thermodynamic standpoint, the window for the
greatest threat for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
would be from around sunset to Midnight. However, the better
dynamic support for strong to severe thunderstorms will not arrive
until after midnight. As a result...we will see a low end chance
of strong storms for much of the night...mainly along and West of
the Mississippi River. Expect a weakening line of storms to move
into East Arkansas after Midnight moving rapidly across the
Midsouth...into North Alabama and middle TN by midday Monday. The
main threat from these storms will be the transfer of strong
wind aloft to the surface...but that potential remains low. Will
maintain low confidence of strong storms in the Hazardous weather
outlook. One quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain is
expected...highest in East Arkansas.

The remainder of the work week looks uneventful. Temperatures are
expected to be above normal with no rain until Friday afternoon at
the earliest. Guidance suggests higher rain chances will return
next weekend.



12z TAFs

MVFR ceilings will gradually rise to VFR by 22z at MKL and MEM
while JBR rises from IFR cigs to MVFR. Southerly flow will
increase today to 12-17 kts, with gusts over 20 kts. Winds will
peak a bit higher as a cold front approaches towards morning, with
only a minimal wind shift to the southwest with the passage. Best
chance of heavy precipitation from 9-12z at MEM, with too low
confidence to include VCTS at this time.




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