Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 230416

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1116 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 941 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

Skies are cloudy across much of the forecast area this evening. A
cold front extends from extreme western Kentucky south through
west Tennessee and into southern Mississippi. Temperatures ahead
of the front are in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees with readings
behind the front in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Some light rain is
falling ahead of the front and as the front moves east overnight,
most of the rain will be moving out of the area. Will update
forecast to remove evening wording.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

Light showers were dotting the Midsouth this hour...but not the
coverage or intensity as thought due to the large squall line
still ongoing along and off the Gulf Coast. In addition there has
been a lack of thunder in the CWA for several hours now. Current
temperatures ranged from the upper upper 70s where breaks
in the cloud cover has lasted for an hour or two. Winds were
southerly...with the strongest speeds east of the MS River.

For tonight and into Monday...satellite showing a developing S
curve in the warm air conveyor belt over the Mississippi Valley.
Thus the upper level trough is transitioning to a closed low as
models predicted over the Ozarks. But with this will also come
more drying as a significant midlevel dry slot surges around the
base...leaving the eastern third of the CWA to see any new surge
of precipitation. New QPF amounts in this region have backed-off
to perhaps an inch total through midday tomorrow. Points to the
west with the dry slot and some wrap around moisture will struggle
to get a quarter of an inch. As the closed low transitions east
of the area tomorrow the next shortwave to drop south with the
true cold front will first increase the wind field out of the west
before shifting northwesterly by evening. So have increased highs
a couple of degrees due to the expected downsloping affects.
Mostly sunny skies for the area tomorrow after morning clouds exit

Tuesday and Wednesday...lower upper level heights coupled with
surface high pressure will keep the region cool but dry. Still
appears that patchy frost will be an issue across the east
Wednesday morning as gusty winds Tuesday decouple. Highs both
days will generally be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Thursday through next weekend...models are becoming better aligned
with the timing and positioning of the next upper trough to affect
the middle of the country. Weather for Thursday should remain dry
but milder as the surface high pushes east and the low level flow
becomes southerly. Clouds and low level moisture will be on the
increase...with rain chances back in the forecast starting Friday.
Overall the threat for any thunder appears nil and the coverage
of showers only scattered. A more potent cold front will arrive
late in the day...dropping temperatures into the 50s for highs
both Saturday and Sunday. Nocturnal cloud cover both nights will
be critically important to keep temperatures above freezing.




A cold front is moving into North Alabama and Middle Tennessee.
Only a few light showers remain behind the front and will not
likely impact aviation. Winds are from the Northwest behind the
front generally around 10kts and will likely remain near that
speed for the remainder of the night. Cigs immediately behind the
front dropped to IFR but have improved a bit. However...expect
cigs to fall back to IFR levels later tonight...JBR may be the
exception. Nevertheless, cigs are expected to be variable so
Amendments may be needed. Winds should keep the threat for
widespread diminished vis down. Winds will shift from the West
tomorrow. Cigs will improve during the morning hours and VFR
conditions are expected tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.




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