Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 311833
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
232 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS SLOWLY MARCHING
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTHWARD THUS FAR. THERE WILL STILL BE A SEA BREEZE
COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR LATER TODAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A FEW
MORE FIREWORKS ACROSS THE AREA. VERY WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS
STILL...THOUGH CONDITIONS/PARAMETERS STILL FAVOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST POTENTIAL INTO THIS EVENING. STEERING FLOW
REMAINS SLOW AND GENERALLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. GREATER CELL COVERAGE STILL EXPECTED SOUTHWARD WHERE MOISTURE
IS DEEPEST. A FEW OF THESE CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PUTTING DOWN A
FEW INCHES OF RAIN IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN A FEW CELLS ALSO REMAINS IN PLAY WITH STRONGER CELLS.
ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR
DUE TO THE VARIOUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD THEN
SHIFT BACK OVER THE ATLC WATERS OVERNIGHT.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

FRI-SAT...ZONAL H30-H20 JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC WILL
LIFT UP THE ERN SEABOARD AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF A DEEP TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS. AS THE JET ORIENTATION SHIFTS....IT WILL FEED INTO A
SECOND JET STREAK CENTERED OVER ERN CANADA. AS THE SUPPORTING JET
ENERGY TRANSITIONS DOWNSTREAM...THE SRN PORTION OF THE ERN CONUS
DEEP LYR TROF WILL COLLAPSE...ALONG WITH WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE
FRONTAL TROF OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE H100-H70 ATLC RIDGE AXIS...CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED OVER THE
FL STRAITS AND THE NRN BAHAMAS...TO REBUILD OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA AND BECOME THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE ONCE AGAIN.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD...THE H85-H50 STEERING FLOW WILL
SHIFT TO THE S AND DIMINISH TO 10KTS OR LESS. SUCH A WEAK
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE EAST/WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES TO MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE
OVER THE SW ATLC THRU THE H100-H70 LYR IS LARGELY BLO 80PCT...WHILE
MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE STRUGGLING TO BREAK THE 6.0C/KM MARK.

MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE PWAT VALUES CLIMBING ABV THE 2.0" MARK
BY 18Z FRI...BUT THEN PUSH A NEW POCKET OF MID LVL DRY AIR ACRS
CENTRAL FL THAT DROPS VALUES BACK BLO 1.8" BY 18Z SAT.
FURTHERMORE... AS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD...IT WILL
BLOCK OUT ANY ORGANIZED MID LVL VORT MAXES THAT MIGHT LEND DYNAMIC
SUPPORT TO THE LCL AIRMASS.

THE 00Z GFS MOS POPS CAME IN BLO 50PCT THRU SAT. THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK STEERING FLOW TO
GENERATE LIKELY POPS. SRLY FLOW WILL GENERATE ABV AVG TEMPS WITH
AFTN MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS IN THE M/U70S.

SUN-TUE...NO REAL SURPRISES IN STORE FOR CENTRAL FL THRU THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE.
A DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF AK WILL KEEP THE NRN JET STREAM
DISRUPTED AND UNABLE TO SUPPLY THE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH ANY
REINFORCEMENT. GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LOW AMP SHORT
WAVE TROF THAT WILL BE UNABLE TO UPROOT THE ATLC RIDGE ON ITS OWN.
FURTHERMORE...NHC HAS REDUCED DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES A TOUCH DUE TO THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT IT IS PASSING THRU. SCT AFTN/EVNG TSRAS WILL BE THE RULE
WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES OVER ECFL THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHEST AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE SOUTHWARD FROM
KMCO WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHER. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. VFR
ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH THINNING CLOUD DEBRIS. ON FRI...SCT AFTN
SHRA/TSRA RETURNING AREAWIDE WITH DEEP MOISTURE RETURN COMPLETE.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...E/ESE FLOW NEAR THE COAST AND S/SE OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 15 KTS WELL
OFFSHORE. SCATTERED STORMS LIFTING NORTH OR NORTHEAST MAY PUSH
OFFSHORE PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST THIS AFTN AND CONTAIN GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...

FRI-MON...ATLC RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED OVER THE FL
STRAITS/NRN BAHAMAS WILL REBUILD ACRS THE CENTRAL/NRN FL PENINSULA
BY DAYBREAK SAT... WHERE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A GENTLE TO MODERATE SERLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS 2-3FT
THRU SAT NIGHT... BUILDING TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK SUN AS AN ERLY SWELL WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE LCL ATLC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  76  89 /  20  50  30  50
MCO  75  94  75  93 /  20  50  30  50
MLB  76  90  77  88 /  30  40  30  40
VRB  75  90  77  89 /  30  40  30  40
LEE  75  94  76  92 /  20  40  30  40
SFB  76  94  77  93 /  20  50  30  50
ORL  77  94  76  93 /  20  50  30  50
FPR  74  90  77  89 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....VOLKMER




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