Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281341
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES TODAY...

CURRENT...EXPANSIVE ATLC SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF LOCAL WX PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH A RATHER NARROW MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE BAHAMAS TO OFFSHORE THE SE MID
ATLC SEABOARD. A STACKED DEEP LAYER LOW REMAINS TRAPPED BENEATH
THE ATLC RIDGE OUT NEAR 27N 62W AND IN QSTNRY. A TONGUE OF DRIER
AIR ASCD WITH THE MEAN RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA AND
IS READILY APPARENT IN MORNING RAOB DATA AND BLENDED TPW PRODUCT.
MEAN PWATS ARE ONLY 0.90" OR SO WITH A SUBSIDENCE CAP NEAR H85.
LOCAL RADAR DATA SHOWS JUST SPOTTY VERY LOW DBZ SPRINKLES ASCD WITH
WEAK N-S ORIENTED COVGS BANDS UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLC. WHILE PRECIP
HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS THESE BANDS PUSH SHOREWARD. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
"PANCAKING OUT" AROUND 5-6KFT UP AGAINST THE CAP.

TODAY...WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BLOCKY/STAGNANT...SENSIBLE WX
CONDS WON`T BE APPRECIABLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS. RELATIVELY DRY...OCNLY BREEZY (NEAR THE COAST) ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE M-U80S OVER THE COASTAL COS AND AROUND
90F WELL INLAND UNDER PSUNNY SKIES. OCNL MCLDY PDS BENEATH THESE
"PANCAKING" CLOUDS WILL BE THE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE...
SO DON`T PLAN ON MAKING ANY SIG CHGS TO THE ONGOING FCST.

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS...ROUGH CHOPPY SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
AS PERSISTENT LONG FETCH ONSHORE/EASTERLY FLOW SHOWS NO SIGN OF
ABATING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. OCNL CIGS BKN045-055 IN MARINE SC. SFC WINDS OCNLY
GUSTING UP TO NEAR 20KT MAINLY ALONG THE DAB-SUA CORRIDOR.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. CURRENT BUOY/C-AN OBS INDICATE E-ENE WINDS 14-17KT
WITH SEAS 3-4FT NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND 5FT FARTHER OFFSHORE IN A
7-8SEC PD WINDSWELL. NOT QUITE UP TO CAUTIONARY STMT LEVELS BUT STILL
POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015/

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND...

...ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
SOME AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS...

FRIDAY...AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.5-1.6 INCHES WITH LOW LVL FLOW AT 925 MBS FROM 15-20
KNOTS WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES TO AROUND 30 PCT ACROSS E CENTRAL
FL. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE MORNING...WITH
ACTIVITY PROGRESSING INTO THE INTERIOR BY MID AFTERNOON. FCST CAPE
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES POINT TO A SLGT THUNDER CHC
THOUGH...AIRMASS STILL REMAINS RATHER DRY ABOVE H7...SO TSTM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO AROUND 90 FOR THE
INTERIOR. EXPECT THE ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE ROUGH SURF AT THE
BEACHES AND AT LEAST A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE
COAST AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS THEY PUSH TOWARD THE INTERIOR.
WILL KEEP WELL INTERIOR AREAS DRY THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH
DELAND...SANFORD AND ORLANDO OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES TO
INTERIOR SECTIONS TO AROUND 40 PCT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY PUSHING ONSHORE THROUGH MID DAY...BEFORE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD THE INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY...A MID LVL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE LWR MS VALLEY WITH MID
LVL WINDS STARTING TO TURN TO THE SW BY LATE SUNDAY. LOW LVL ESE
FLOW WILL AND PWATS TO 1.7-1.8 ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. POPS AGAIN WILL BE 30-40 CSTL AND 40 PCT
FOR THE INTERIOR. HIGHS FOR BOTH WEEKEND DAYS SHOULD REACH THE MID
80S COAST AND AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR.

MON...ESE LOW LVL FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE SFC-850 LAYER WITH SOME
DRYING ABOVE 700 MBS BUT STILL ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TO DRIVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. WILL TAPER POPS
TO 20 PCT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 30-40 PCT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

TUE-THU...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS DEVELOPING INTO MID WEEK
AS A MID LVL TROUGH DROPS SLOWLY SE TWD THE NRN GULF COAST. FLOW
AROUND THE TROUGH WILL DRAW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NWD INTO MID WEEK
TOWARD E CENTRAL FL. 00Z GFS IS CONTINUING ITS PATTERN OF RECENT
DAYS AND SPINS UP A SFC LOW NEAR THE FL PENINSULA FOR MID WEEK AND
LIFTS IT NWD. GFS MODEL TRENDS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN TO
GRADUALLY MOVE THE LOW TRACK WESTWARD AND KEEP E CENTRAL FL ON THE
WET SIDE OF THE LOW AS DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS OVER THE AREA WED-THU.
THE ECMWF IS NOT SHOWING MUCH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT BUT DOES ALSO
GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS INTO MID WEEK. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARD MID WEEK UP TO AROUND 50 PCT...THOUGH THIS MAY
CONSERVATIVE IF ANYTHING NEAR THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES/ISO
SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE IN THE BREEZY EASTERLY FLOW BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF REDUCTIONS IN CIG/VIS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE AROUND 10-15 KTS AND LONG
EASTERLY FETCH WILL MAINTAIN SEAS UP TO 4-5 FEET OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

FRI-MON...EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND
THEN DECREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS SHOULD REACH 5-
6 FT OFFSHORE AND 4-5 FT FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FOR FRIDAY AND
THEN DECREASE TO 4-5 FT SAT-SUN. BY MONDAY...ESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO AROUND 4 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE... MELBOURNE AIRPORT TIED THEIR RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE
FOR THE DATE YESTERDAY AT 76 LAST SET IN 1986.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  70  84  72 /  10  10  30  30
MCO  88  69  88  71 /  10  10  30  20
MLB  85  72  85  73 /  10  20  30  30
VRB  86  70  86  72 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  90  69  90  72 /  10  10  30  10
SFB  88  67  88  71 /  10  10  30  20
ORL  87  70  88  72 /  10  10  30  20
FPR  86  69  85  71 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$



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