Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 070829
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...WINDY AND COLDER TODAY WITH VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

TODAY/TONIGHT...VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE REGION AS IT LIFTS N/NE. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A WINDY NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
WILL TRANSPORT A DRIER/COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. ISSUED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FL COUNTIES TODAY WITH FORECAST
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. A GRADUALLY EROSION OF THIS DECK IS
THEN EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL EVEN PAST SUNRISE
CONTINUING CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVEN AFTER CLOUDS
BREAK UP AND CLEAR ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
50S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MON-THU...A CLOSED LOW INITIALLY CENTERED NEAR THE GRT LAKES
EARLY MON WL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROUGH TUE-WED WHILE MAINTAINING
ITS STRENGTH AS A RATHER DEEP CYCLONIC FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. PRESENCE OF THE FEATURE WL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF MAINLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES BEGINNING LATE MON AND AGAIN ON LATE TUE AND
AROUND LATE WED WL SUPPLY DRY/COLD AIR WITH NO SIG CHANCE OF
RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE U50S TO 60S DAILY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TWO OR THREE NIGHTS OF
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF FRONTAL PSGS WL FORTUNATELY PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR AND THUS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED...THE EAST CST TROUGH WL MOVE EAST OF THE US CST LATE IN
THE WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO SE STATES WL
BRING QUIET CONDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS
LOCALLY AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR FEB. HIGHS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
70S OVER A LARGE PART OF TEH AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW CIGS AROUND 500-1000 FT
WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFT...AROUND 17-19Z AS DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK. MODELS
INDICATE KDAB/KTIX MAY BE THE LAST TO HOLD ON TO THIS LOWER CLOUD
DECK. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 18-20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
OVER THE WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE
WILL PRODUCE NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-15 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HEADLINES WILL THEN NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE WATERS INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS
ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING BOATING CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS.

MON-THU...THE PSG OF SEVERAL DRY COLD FRONTS THIS WEEK WL BRING
BREEZY CONDS WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS...ESP OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME FETCH PROTECTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CST DUE TO
PREVALENCE OF A WLY COMPONENT WIND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE PATTERN CHANGE AND SUPPLY OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR OVER
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE DUE TO COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES IN THE LWR
TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST FOR PART OF THE AREA MON AND TUE...WITH
TUE A LITTLE DRIER OVER N CENTRAL FL AND RH BRIEFLY MAKING IT INTO
THE U20S INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  54  38  66  43 /  20   0  10  20
MCO  57  39  66  46 /  10   0  10  20
MLB  58  38  64  44 /  10   0  10  20
VRB  59  38  65  48 /  10   0  10  20
LEE  56  40  67  45 /  10   0  10  20
SFB  57  39  66  44 /  10   0  10  20
ORL  56  42  65  49 /  10   0  10  20
FPR  59  39  64  48 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST


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