Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 200136
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
936 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TONIGHT...CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE EXITING EASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND
INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. DESPITE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR
ALOFT...MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE GENERATING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM. WESTERLY FLOW
BECOMING N/NW OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW THIS CLOUD COVER
TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WIND FLOW WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. PATCHES OF DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LOWER
CLOUDS OVER LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT LOCAL
WRF AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) WINDS BECOME CONSISTENTLY
NORTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN NORTH DURING THE DAY AS THE
LOW OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM LAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH FLORIDA. THE NORTHERLY TRAJECTORY OVER
THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PICK UP ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP
SKIES PARTLY TO CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY AT THE COAST WHILE THE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BE LESS OVER THE WARMER AND DRIER INTERIOR LAND MASS.
THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WIND OFF OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL AND AROUND 70S
CANAVERAL TO VERO BEACH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
AT THE COAST. HIGHS IN MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE AT THE COAST AND THE
INTERIOR SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER
ALLOWING MORE SUN AND DAYTIME HEATING TO TAKE PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD DECK WITH CIGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 3KFT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION WITH
CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHERN
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF KMCO MAY EVEN SEE LOWER CIGS TO
IFR/LIFR LATE IN THE NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY USHER IN
MORE DRIER AIR WITH LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN COAST
BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MVFR
CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER NORTH OF THE CAPE AND ALONG THE VOLUSIA
COAST INTO MUCH OF TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOME NORTH
TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW INCREASING UP TO 20-25
KNOTS OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS IN THE GULF
TO STREAM TO 10 FEET OR MORE LATE SUNDAY. NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR
CURRENT SCA WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATE TONIGHT AND EXPANDS FARTHER INLAND AND
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER






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