Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 280827
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
427 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Hot and Dry through Memorial Day...
...Moderate Rip Current Risk at East Central Florida Beaches...

Today...Mid level ridge at 500 mbs across the northern Gulf will
elongate eastward across central Florida into the afternoon hours.
Pronounced NVA and a dry airmass in the low to mid levels will limit
cumulus development with some scattered cirrus possibly moving in
from the WNW this afternoon. At the surface high pressure will
extend from south Florida into the ern Gulf with low level WNW flow
this morning and then will see a slow moving east coast sea breeze
this afternoon. Overall a dry and mostly sunny day with highs
reaching the mid 90s across the interior and inland portions of the
coastal counties and lower 90s close to the east coast. An east
swell and lower than normal low tides in the mid to late afternoon
will contribute to a moderate risk of rip currents at east central
Florida beaches.

Monday...Mid level ridge over FL will move east into the Atlantic
in the afternoon. Low level ridge axis will remain across south
Florida so the westerly low level flow will continue. The east
coast sea breeze will develop and move slowly inland but airmass
will be too dry/subsident to generate any showers or storms. So it
will be hot with high temperatures again in the lower 90s near
the east coast and mid 90s for the interior.

Tuesday...The mid level ridge will shift east onto the open Atlc
away from the area resulting in gradually lowering heights and a
relaxation of the subsidence/suppression. Surface dewpoints will
be higher making it feel more humid and there will be a slight
chance for storms late in the afternoon over the interior assocd
with sea breeze interactions. Forecast model soundings show an
increase in cirrus which may filter the sunshine and provide a
skosh of relief but it will still be hot with highs in the lower
90s coast and mid 90s interior.

Wed-Sat...High pressure ridge axis initially across south FL is
forecast to slowly migrate back across central and north FL.
Moisture will gradually increase which should produce scattered
afternoon and evening lightning storms focused on the interior.
Rain chances are forecast to increase from 20-30 percent Wed to 50
percent Fri/Sat over the interior with lower rain chances along
the Treasure coast where there will be less chance for storms to
push back to the coast. Highs in the mid 90s interior on Wed then
lower 90s late week, upper 80s coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some patchy fog/ground fog may affect the Treasure coast through
sunrise though winds have now turned to the WNW with fog
dissipating at KVRB/FPR at 07z. Otherwise VFR with mainly clear
skies. Light westerly flow will continue across the interior into
late today with the east coast sea breeze onset between 18z-19z
along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Westerly winds at 5-10 knots will become onshore around 10
knots near the coast by late afternoon and evening. Seas mainly
2 ft.

Tonight...SE/S winds to 10-15 knots this evening will veer to SW/W
overnight. Seas 2 ft nearshore and up to 2-3 ft nrn offshore waters.

Monday...Boating conditions continue to look favorable with a
light west to northwest flow less than 10 knots in the morning
becoming onshore with the east coast sea breeze in the afternoon.
Seas will average 1 to 2 ft.

Tue-Thu...S/SE flow to around 10 knots with an increase near 15
knots in the late afternoon and evening. Seas to 2-3 ft are
expected. Isolated storms may affect the near shore waters Wed and
Thu afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Westerly low level flow across the interior and a dry low
level airmass will allow Min RHs to drop to around 30 percent or
lower for long durations this afternoon. Will raise Red Flag Warning
for Seminole/Orange/Osceola with high ERC values and dry vegetation.

Monday...Mid level ridge will push east of Florida but continued
subsidence/dry air will likely produce lower dewpoints and RH
values than MOS is indicating. With that in mind, still not quite
getting sufficient duration of critical RH for Red Flag warning
over portions of the interior but it is close.

Tue-Thu...Mid level ridge will continue east into the Atlantic and
assocd subsidence will weaken so do not expect critical RH values.
But the concern will shift to isolated to scattered lightning
storms igniting brush fires.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Highs are expected to remain below record levels today:

SITE  DATE    RECORD HIGH
DAB   28-May    99 2000
MCO   28-May    99 2000
MLB   28-May    97 2000
VRB   28-May    96 1967

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  69  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  95  72  97  73 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  93  71  93  73 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  93  73  92  73 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  92  73  95  74 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  96  72  96  74 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  95  73  97  74 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  93  70  93  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     Orange-Osceola-Seminole.

AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Volkmer
LONG TERM....Kelly


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