Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 220105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
905 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017


Tonight...The early onset of convection has resulted in an early
end.  The GFS shows high moisture remaining over the area, but the
evening soundings actually look a little drier than the model. The
GFS only generated light precip overnight while the HRRR indicates a
dry forecast.  Have already updated the forecast to take out POPs
for the overnight period.


.AVIATION...VFR until convection initiates tomorrow.  Don`t see any
sources of subsidence/drying so expect the atmosphere will remain
very moist.  The east coast sea breeze development early in the
afternoon should start things off again, so have vicinity thunder at
the coastal terminals at 17z.  Boundary interactions will then build
storms inland and have vicinity thunder at the interior sites at
18z. Some drier/cooler mid level air should promote a potential for
strong wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes.


Tonight-Sat...Suppressed surface ridge axis will produce a
south/southwest gradient wind flow.  Speeds look 10 knots or less.

The Wave Watch continues to have a high bias on seas, albeit only
about 1 foot.  Buoy observations have shown seas 2 feet or less with
3 feet way offshore at 41010.  Therefore will have seas 2 feet or
less, except up to 3 feet well offshore (and that is probably even
too generous).





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