Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 310733
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MIGRATE NORTH AND
COMBINE WITH MID/UPPER LEVELS TO DEVELOP A DEEP ONSHORE WIND FLOW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS THROUGH THE LAYER BECOMING 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET AROUND NOON AND WORK THEIR INLAND TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOUR OR TWO. SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP AROUND THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN WORK THEIR WAY WEST INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY THE TIME THEY
REACH WEST OF A DELAND ORLANDO OKEECHOBEE LINE LATE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT STEERING FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND STORMS BEING TRIGGERED BY BOUNDARY INTERACTION. DRIER
AIR ALOFT SEEN ON WATER VAPOR TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL WORK OVER THE
AREA AND SHOULD KEEP THE COVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...20-30 PERCENT.

HIGHS AROUND 90 AT THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 90S FOR THE INTERIOR AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 4.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED STORMS WEST OF ORLANDO DISSIPATE AND SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS MID 70S TO UPPER
70S AT THE BEACHES COCOA BEACH SOUTH.

MON...THE 00Z GFS INDICATED DRIER AIR PERSISTING ESPECIALLY NORTH.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE MOS POPS WHICH HAD 20-30 PERCENT. THE DEEP
EAST FLOW REGIME WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SMALL SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH MIDDAY THEN WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE WILL BE A LOW
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE.

TUE-FRI...DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH SO DEEP ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. DURING MID TO LATE
WEEK...A MID/UPPER LOW...WEAKENING INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH...IS
FORECAST TO PUSH FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS HAS
BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS...SO EXPECT THAT BY THU THE POPS
WILL INCREASE. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED
AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE MOS 20-30 POPS. FOR THE THU-FRI
PERIOD WHEN THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS...HAVE GONE WITH
40-50 POPS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MOS VALUES.

FIRST QUICK LOOK AT NEXT WEEKEND PAINTS A LIGHT WIND REGIME AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SINKS CLOSE TO THE AREA.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH WITH POPS 40 PERCENT AT THE COAST TO
NEAR 50 PERCENT INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH SUNRISE VFR WITH ISOLATED COASTAL -SHRA CAPE CANAVERAL.
TEMPO MVFR AT THE COAST 15Z-18Z. TEMPO MVFR 18Z-02Z AWAY FROM THE
COAST/WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 TO KLEE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT-GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS AT/BELOW 3
FEET. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME SWELL AT 9-10 SECONDS ENTERING
THE WATERS BRINGING SOME 3 FT SEAS OFFSHORE...BUT AROUND 2 FT
SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST.

MON-THU...AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. MODEL SPEEDS ARE CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS WITH
THE MAX SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AT 13 KNOTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED MON-TUE ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT/MORNING.
MID-UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC TROUGH APPROACHING SHOULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
WATERS THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  75  91  75 /  30  20  20  10
MCO  94  75  94  74 /  30  20  30  10
MLB  91  77  90  77 /  30  20  20  10
VRB  91  75  90  75 /  30  20  30  10
LEE  95  75  94  75 /  30  20  30  10
SFB  94  75  94  75 /  30  20  20  10
ORL  94  75  94  76 /  30  20  30  10
FPR  89  74  89  75 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....LASCODY




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