Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281943
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
342 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Currently/Tonight...Cumulus field is sparse across srn areas with
slightly better vertical extent with some towering cumulus across
northern Lake and northern Volusia counties at mid afternoon. Short
range guidance has a sea breeze collision across from near Lake
George SSW across Lake county toward evening which may spark a few
low topped showers. Will add a low shower chance less than 20
percent in these areas into the evening. Otherwise...a dry and warm
night for much of the area with lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Friday...The mid level ridge will remain strong off the FL east
coast with some moisture return mainly across the interior as
moisture depth increases to near 700 mbs. Low level flow will begin
to veer more southerly with a slowly inland moving east coast sea
breeze expected. Should see isolated shower/thunderstorm development
across the coastal counties and low scattered coverage over the
interior by later into the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid 90s
for the interior and lower 90s for the Treasure Coast.

Saturday...Low level flow will become onshore Sat with more drying
moving in from the east with E-NE flow aloft ahead of an approaching
weak easterly wave across the Bahamas. This will lower rain chances
from Friday around 10 percent along the coast and 20 percent for the
interior. Highs will range from the mid 90s interior to lower 90s
along the coast.

Extended forecast continues trend of the northern extension of an
easterly wave increasing moisture levels and rain chances by Wed and
Thu of next week.  Previous Extended...Sun-Wed...A TUTT cell is
forecast to move west across the FL straits and Cuba on Sunday which
should relax some of the suppression and allow an increase for
chance PoPs especially inland. The GFS and ECMWF show a tropical
wave approaching midweek with a significant increase in precipitable
water (2.0-2.25"). But often there is subsidence and drying ahead of
these features and the ECMWF is trending slower with bringing the
tropical moisture into the area. So we`ll have to see if/when
tropical moisture arrives and can bring some relief from our dry
spell.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR thru Friday morning. Some ground fog may
develop again at KFPR-KVRB late tonight but have not expecting
significant reductions to prevailing VSBY.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally S-SE flow around the ATLC ridge into the weekend with
mainly dry weather across the Atlantic into Saturday. Winds will
increase to 10-15 knots with the sea breeze near the coast each
afternoon. Seas generally around 2 ft through Saturday. An increase
in the southeast flow is expected early next week as the northern
extension of a tropical easterly wave approaches the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  75  94 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  76  96  75  95 /  10  30  20  20
MLB  77  93  76  92 /  10  20  10  10
VRB  74  93  73  92 /  10  20  10  10
LEE  77  96  77  96 /  10  30  20  20
SFB  77  97  76  96 /  10  30  20  20
ORL  78  96  77  95 /  10  30  20  20
FPR  74  92  72  91 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTS...Volkmer
AVIATION/IMPACT WX...Johnson/Ulrich



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