Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 231903
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...MORNING CONVECTION WORKED
SOUTHEAST AND GENERALLY DISSIPATED...WHILE NEW ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING MAINLY DUE TO OROGRAPHIC FORCING ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU AND WRN NC. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. NOT SURE IF THE FAR EASTERN
AND FAR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL GET 60 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT SOME
CATEGORICAL POPS LOOKED LIKE A GOOD BET FOR SW VA AND NRN PARTS OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. KEPT FAR SRN VALLEY AND SW NC POPS AROUND 50
PERCENT FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS WEATHER AND POP GRIDS FOR THURSDAY STILL LOOKED ON TRACK...
SO NO CHANGES MADE. HARD TO FIND ANY MODEL THAT DOES NOT MOVE THE
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. WENT QUITE
CLOSE TO THE GFS MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT...BUT TRENDED MUCH CLOSER TO
THE COOLER NAM MOS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY. THIS WAS ALSO IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS MAX TEMP GRID AND ADJACENT NWS OFFICES.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IN E TN AND SW VA WITH THE EXITING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK LIKE OUTSTANDING DAYS
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ON FRIDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DIP INTO THE
UPPER 50S IN SOME AREAS AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS PLEASANT WEATHER WILL NOT STICK AROUND LONG
ENOUGH. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE NW FLOW
AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WILL PRODUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY WITH THE BETTER BET BEING IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE OF TN BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE
REGION ON TUESDAY BRINGING MORE UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPTIATION CHANCES THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  86  66  87 /  50  50  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  84  64  85 /  60  60  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       69  83  63  85 /  70  50  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  81  58  84 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/AC



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