Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 191915
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
315 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today into tomorrow)...
Line of showers and thunderstorms is continuing to move east
into the Valley early this afternoon. As it moves into the Valley
it will begin to run into drier air which should slow down it`s
progress and begin to decrease the coverage of storms.
Mesoanalysis indicates that there is up to 1000 J/Kg of CAPE to
work with, but little to no shear, and very little low level
forcing means that severe weather is unlikely this
afternoon/evening. Once these storms fizzle out we should see a
bit of clearing in the clouds which means we should see another
round of fog overnight, especially in locations that receive
rainfall today. Another round of showers and thunderstorms looks
possible tomorrow with the best chances being in the higher
elevations along the terrain. Temperatures today and tomorrow will
continue the trend of the last several days of slightly above
average for this time of year.

.Long Term (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
A strong ridge building into the region will control the local
weather pattern through much of the extended period. With enough
moisture in place through Saturday, diurnal showers and
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, especially across the
higher terrain which will provide additional forcing. Drier
conditions follow for early next week as the building high pressure
cuts off the moisture flow to our area.

Temperatures through the extended period will be near or slightly
above seasonal normals, topping out in the low to mid 80s each
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  86  67  87 /  20  30  10  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  84  65  85 /  20  20  10  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       66  85  66  85 /  20  20  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              61  83  60  82 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

ABM/EMH



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