Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 220717
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER S CENTRAL U.S.
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES RISE SLIGHTLY TODAY. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EXCEED 100 ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THICKNESS PACKING AND CLOCK AROUND UPPER
RIDGE. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FROM THE NW WITH SW VA AND NE TN HAVING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND REACH
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION.  ADDITIONALLY...THE STRONG
RIDGE WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S
ACROSS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS A BIT EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND WEAKENS OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  THIS SHOULD TAKE US OUT OF THE MCS TRACK BUT NORMAL
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING BUT MODELS INDICATING A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH AROUND THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             96  73  97  73 /  10  10  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  92  73  93  71 /  20  10  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       92  72  93  71 /  20  10  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  67  88  67 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/MJB


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