Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 230728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
328 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...An upper level ridge will be on
the move from the plains states into the eastern third of the
nation through the period with a trailing deep upper trough. The
gradient of pressure between these two systems will allow for a
strengthening southerly flow; initially aloft, but a returning
southerly component will also develop closer to the surface a
little later in the period. This will keep a few clouds around;
especially later this afternoon into the overnight hours.
Temperatures should still be able to reach Wednesday`s maximums
or a little warmer today while mins will be a little above this
mornings readings thanks to the southerly wind direction.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...A mid/upper level ridge
axis will be shifting east of our area to start the period,
allowing a deep SW flow to develop. We will remain capped on
Friday and Friday night, but precip will begin to approach from
the west on Saturday as a closed low moves into the mid MS Valley
region. Scattered showers may develop near the Plateau on Saturday
afternoon, but the majority of synoptic lift enters Saturday
night as the low moves into the lower OH Valley. A negative tilt
to the upper low and a LLJ near 50 kts will give a chance of
thunderstorms overnight. The NAM tracks the upper low across the
KY/TN border while the GFS takes it north of the OH River. In
either case, we should see decreasing rain chances through the day

We will have a brief dry period on Monday between systems, and
without a strong push of cold air expected behind the departing
system, temperatures on Monday will be quite mild in the 70s. GFS
and ECMWF generally agree on an open shortwave trough moving from
the Plains into the TN Valley on Monday night and Tuesday. Chance
PoPs will be continued for these periods, with a dry day expected on
Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area.


Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  49  70  56 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  64  45  68  51 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  46  68  52 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              60  39  67  47 /   0   0   0   0


TN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for Hancock-Hawkins-
     Northwest Carter-Northwest Greene-Sullivan-Washington TN.

VA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Scott-


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