Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 290748
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
348 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Rain soaked areas mainly N of I-40 are reporting patchy areas of
fog with visby as low as 2 miles. Expect this to dissipate rather
quickly after sunrise. Meanwhile, convection west of the area
continues to track east along the TN-KY border region. High
resolution models seem to have finally initialized with this
activity and slowly weaken/dissipate it this morning over our
northwestern counties.

For the remainder of today and tonight, broad upper level trough
and deep moist airmass will continue to produce afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms area wide. With marginal shear of
around 15 kt coupled with MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg there remains the
prospect of an isolated marginally severe storm. Similarly, deep
moisture could produce some locally heavy downpours resulting in
some localized flash flooding. With much of the area not expected
to clear out until early afternoon, cloud cover may be an
inhibiting factor for any significant convection.



.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue through Monday, but
temperatures will be closer to normal for late July and early
August. A broad upper trough will remain overhead with several
short waves moving through, bringing a chance of thunderstorms each
day. An upper level ridge will build back into the central US next
week, bringing a return of the above normal temperatures. While
daily thunderstorm chances will be more tempered, a few weak
disturbances will crest the ridge and move through our area on the
eastern periphery. There will be enough instability and moisture
present to produce scattered thunderstorm chances as these
disturbances move through.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             88  73  90  73 /  50  40  50  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  87  72  88  71 /  50  30  40  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  72  89  70 /  50  30  50  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  68  85  67 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

EJH/EMH



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