Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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000
FXUS66 KMTR 262219
AFDMTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
219 PM PST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STORM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE BAY AREA TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EASTWARD BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY AND MILD WEATHER FORECAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:19 PM PST MONDAY...TEMPERATURES IN THE BAY
AREA ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LESS FOG
COVERAGE THIS MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST ARE MUCH COOLER AFTER YESTERDAYS RECORD WARMTH...AS
HIGH CLOUDS NOW BLANKET THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
CIRCULATION LOCATED WEST OF SAN DIEGO. RIGHT NOW SOME RAIN IS
FALLING IN THE DESERTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH 29 PALMS AND
CHINA LAKE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN LAST HOUR. ITS AN UNUSUAL SET-UP
BUT ITS THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH THAT WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP EAST OF OUR DISTRICT BUT SOME OF THE MESO-SCALE
MODELS PAINT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE HILLS OF MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTY AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT
INLAND. IN PARTICULAR THE LATEST RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED
WETTER OVER MONTEREY/SAN BENITO COUNTY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE LEFT
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ANY SHOWER
THREAT SHOULD END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES
EASTWARD.

AS THAT LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY
NONDESCRIPT WITH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THAT MAY GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA BY THURSDAY BUT NO PRECIP FOR THE BAY
AREA. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK.

ANOTHER WARM WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AS A RIDGE BUILDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS. DOESN`T
LOOK AS WARM AS LAST WEEKEND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY RECORDS.

THE PATTERN BEYOND SUNDAY BECOMES MORE MUDDLED. THE ECMWF AND GEM
MODEL ARE ACTUALLY TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER WHILE THE GFS REMAINS
DRY. GIVEN THE HISTORIC DRY PATTERN WERE UNDER WILL NOT BE
INTRODUCING DAY 7 POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 AM PST MONDAY...PATCHY FOG IN THE VALLEYS
WILL CLEAR BY LATE MORNING. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG IN THE VALLEYS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
EASTERLY...TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WINDS THIS MORNING
BECOMING LIGHT VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 1:49 PM PST MONDAY...EAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BY MIDWEEK...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: DYKEMA

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