Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 022052
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1252 PM PST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather conditions will persist through the
weekend along with a slight warming trend in daytime temperatures.
Meanwhile, overnight conditions will remain chilly under mostly
clear skies. A region-wide cool down is forecast for the first
part of next week as a dry cold front pushes through the region.
Chances for precipitation potentially return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 12:51 PM PST Friday...Mainly clear skies
prevail over the region this afternoon with a few mid/high level
clouds spreading across portions of the North Bay. Meanwhile,
breezy to locally gusty winds continue across the northern portion
of the region (strongest in the higher elevations) in response to
a surface trough over inland portions of the the state. These
winds will likely continue through tonight and into Saturday
before diminishing by tomorrow night. Meanwhile, the ridge of high
pressure aloft over the eastern Pacific will result in a slight
warming trend through the weekend with daytime temperatures
warming up above seasonal averages. Overnight conditions will
remain chilly as well with patchy frost likely in areas where
clear skies and light winds prevail.

A cold front is then forecast to drop southward late Sunday into
Monday and advect a colder air mass down across the region. The
latest forecast models show moisture to be limited as the boundary
pushes through the region. With this and the more northern
trajectory of the mid/upper level disturbance, dry weather
conditions will be likely with this frontal passage. This colder air
mass will bring temperatures back to below seasonal averages for
about the first half of next week. Overnight lows in the 30s will
also be more widespread with patchy frost again possible.

Late next week, the models are in decent agreement in showing a more
robust upper level system impacting the Pacific Northwest. This
system would drive another frontal boundary down into the San
Francisco Bay Area late Thursday into Friday and down through the
Central coast late in the day Friday. It appears chances of
widespread precipitation will be better with this system with the
GFS showing PWAT values in excess of 1.25" along and ahead of the
cold front. Thus, have increased POPs and sky cover for late in the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 09:22 AM PST Friday...Offshore flow will
continue to provide VFR through the period. A few high clouds will
stream in from the north, but no impacts. Offshore flow will also
produce gusty winds, especially SFO.

Vicinity of KSFO... VFR. Northerly winds 15-25 kt gusting to 30
kt decreasing to 15-20 kt this afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with light offshore winds.

&&

.MARINE...as of 08:30 AM PST Friday...High pressure off the West
Coast and lower pressure inland will maintain gusty northerly
flow along the Central Coast today. Winds will decrease near
shore tonight but will persist over the outer waters through
Monday. A long period swell train will move into the waters
Saturday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 9 PM

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: MM
MARINE: MM


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