Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 250544
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
BRIEF TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 09Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN.

CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS LATE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LATE
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDOW...ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...IN THE LOW TO MID 40S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN NYC LATE TONIGHT.

IF WINDS DECOUPLE EARLIER THAN PREDICTED TEMPS ACROSS OUTLYING
AREAS COULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES...LEADING TO PATCHY FROST
FORMATION IN INTERIOR VALLEYS AND PINE BARRENS. THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE COULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE FRONT.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S...WHILE
SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING SUNDAY.
ITS RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH DURING MONDAY...AND WILL BE OFFSHORE
ON TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER ALL THREE DAYS...BUT BREEZY ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY...BUT A LITTLE COOLER ON MONDAY
DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXING. A RETURN FLOW WITH SW WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMALS ON TUESDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE SLOW DUE TO THE FRONT BECOMING
ALIGNED WITH THE FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS
FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDS HAVE THE OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER ON THURSDAY.

MODELS DIFFER FOR FRIDAY. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH A
POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION. SUPPORT FROM
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE NOT GREAT SO FAR...BUT WORTH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE NW 5-10 KT INTO THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING 10-15 KT
WITH SOME GUSTS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KT WHILE BACKING
TO W-WSW. WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KT SAT NIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...VFR. NW WINDS G25-30KT ON
SUNDAY...HIGHEST NYC METRO.

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS THROUGH 09Z WITH GUSTS INTO
THE LOWER 20S ON OCEAN AND AROUND 20 ON NEARSHORE
WATERS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

SUB SCA CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVE...WITH SEAS AND
WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT. WILL ADJUST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
START A BIT EARLIER FOR ALL WATERS STARTING SAT EVENING AT
MIDNIGHT WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW.

SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY WITH A GUSTY NW FLOW. WINDS
THEN SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR ALL
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SW RETURN FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT ON TUESDAY...BUT GUSTS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD BE
MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC






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