Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 282017
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
417 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain to the south this evening. Low
pressure will then move along the front and pass just to the
south this evening. High pressure will then build in late
tonight into Thursday, then move east Thursday night. Low
pressure approaching from the Central states will impact the
region Thursday night into Saturday. High pressure will build in
on Sunday and Monday. Another disturbance may affect the area
next Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Radar shows most of the rain attm is to the north/east of NYC.
However, as low pressure over the Mid Atlantic region starts to
take shape south of Long Island, expect rain to fill back in
over the region with passage of the associated upper trough and
developing H7-8 layer frontogenesis NW of the sfc low. Air mass
has stabilized aloft so do not expect any thunder. Fog should be
limited to the higher elevations.

Used a guidance blend for lows tonight, with lower 40s invof
NYC, upper 30s most elsewhere, and isolated mid 30s well inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather with a northwesterly breeze. Despite a cooler deep
layer air mass in place, sfc temperatures will actually be
warmer than Tuesday because of deep mixing. Mostly sunny skies
are progged, with some fair weather Cu especially NW of NYC.
Took the high side of guidance for temps, with mid/upper 50s
most places, and upper 40s/lower 50s in the higher elevations.

Guidance may be underdone by quite a bit on winds for Wed
evening as low pressure off to the east intensifies. Model
soundings out east show winds 35-40 kt atop the mixed layer.
Trended forecast higher, with gusts up to 25 lasting until about
midnight.

Lows should be in the mid 30s invof NYC, lower 30s along the
coastlines and in the NYC suburbs, and 25-30 elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in for Thursday, then moves offshore Thursday
night. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the low to mid 50s.
Clouds will increase Thursday night as warm advection begins to move
in ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Expect periods of
rain starting Thursday night into Saturday. Some lingering cold air
across the northern portions of our CWA Thursday night may result in
a mix of snow and rain before warm advection increases. So have kept
the mix of snow and rain inland. High temperatures on Friday and
Saturday will be in the mid 40s to around 50.

Canadian high pressure builds in for late Saturday night into
Monday. Another disturbance may approach for Tuesday. Temperatures
during this period will be in the mid to upper 50s which is near
normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A couple of fronts remains near the region through this
evening. A cold front pushes across the region overnight. High
pressure then builds into the region on Wednesday.

IFR or less continues through at least 06z in low stratus, fog
and periods of rain. Winds will generally be less than 10kt from
the east-northeast.

After 06Z, a cold front will push across the region, with winds
becoming northerly, then northwesterly and increasing to
10-15kt by 12Z Wednesday. At this time, conditions will
gradually improve to VFR with mostly clear skies for Wednesday.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight
categories through this evening. Wind direction change may be
off by an hour or two.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight
categories through this evening. Wind direction change may be
off by an hour or two.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight
categories through this evening. Wind direction change may be
off by an hour or two.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight
categories through this evening. Wind direction change may be
off by an hour or two.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight
categories through this evening. Wind direction change may be
off by an hour or two.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for changing flight
categories through this evening. Wind direction change may be
off by an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday...VFR. N-NW gusts 15-20KT.
.Thursday...VFR.
.Friday...A wintry mix possible early north and west with IFR
conditions possible before a change to rain, otherwise sub VFR
conditions with rain elsewhere.
.Friday night and Saturday...Chance of rain with MVFR or lower
conditions. E winds G20-25KT at coastal terminals for Saturday.
.Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below advy levels through tonight,
but could briefly come close on the ocean tonight as NE winds
increase on the back side of departing low pressure. Advy level
winds are also possible on the ocean on Wed in the morning.
Given the marginal nature of these winds, have not yet issued
SCA.

Gusts 25-30 kt are likely on all waters Wed night as low
pressure to the east intensifies and high pressure builds from
the west. Some 5-ft seas could linger into early Thu morning.

Potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions increases from
late day Friday through Saturday night with increasing
southeasterly winds ahead of an approaching system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Additional basin average rainfall of 1/4 to 1/2 inch possible
into the first half of tonight as low pressure develops south
of Long Island and rain fills back in. Event total rainfall for
most of the area will be between 1/2 to 3/4 inch, with higher
totals above 1 inch on parts of Long Island where tstms passed
across earlier today. No additional hydrologic concerns
anticipated through tonight.

Additional rainfall of 1/2 inch to 1 inch is possible Thursday
night through Saturday. No hydrologic concerns anticipated.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides remain high due to a recent new moon. Water
levels may approach minor flood thresholds during the high tide
cycles tonight, with minor flooding possible Friday night as a
low pressure system approaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig/Goodman
NEAR TERM...Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...Fig/Goodman
HYDROLOGY...Fig/Goodman
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.