Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 181440
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1040 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OUT TO SEA ON SATURDAY...LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN FOR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN
UPSTATE NEW YORK AT MID MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THIS
WEAK COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WITH
THE PROVIDED LIFT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST.

850MB TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS...SO
FIGURING HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
SEEN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...USHERING IN A COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR MASS THAT HAD
ALREADY BEEN IN PLACE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY STARTS OUT MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE FLOW ARRIVES OFF OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THINKING IS THAT
CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT
CROSS SECTIONS WOULD IMPLY. ADDITIONALLY...THERE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL LIFT TO TRIGGER ANY KIND OF LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY OR DRIZZLE DURING FRIDAY NIGHT. SO WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE
WITH A DRY FORECAST.

SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH TO AROUND 900MB WHERE THE
TEMPERATURE IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 7C...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THEN
END UP BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT TIGHTENED WITH REGARDS TO THE H5 FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH SUN. OVERALL AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
DIFFERENCES IN THE FLOW BEYOND THE WEEKEND. AS A CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA ON SAT...THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY DOWNSTREAM
RESULTING IN RIDGING OVER WRN CANADA AND THE NW US AND A DIGGING
TROUGH IN SE CANADA/THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST OVER THE ERN US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE OUT WEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE CONTINENT ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
ERN US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SFC HIGH PRES S OF NOVA SCOTIA SAT MORNING WILL CONTINUE OUT TO SEA
AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW WILL
TRACK THROUGH SE CANADA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ITS ATTENDING COLD
PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. STILL
LOOKS LIKE QPF DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EWD...THEREFORE HIGHEST POPS
ARE CONFINED TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAYS 12Z AND
00Z OP EC RUNS ARE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO HAVE ABANDONED THE IDEA OF THE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MON. WILL STILL KEEP THIS IN MIND HOWEVER OVER THE
COMING DAYS. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH WED.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ON SUN...NEAR NORMAL LEVELS SAT AND MON AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...NEAR NORMAL MON NIGHT AND BELOW NORMAL
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING

N/NW WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BACKING W/NW IN THE AFTERNOON.
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK/KBDR/KGON. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

WINDS SHIFT TO N/NE BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY NYC TERMINALS.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: POSSIBLE LATE DAY SEABREEZE.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES  SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS IN THE AFT MAY STAY MORE NLY..330-350.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR.
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR OR BELOW WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN 3 TO 4 FT AT MID MORNING AND NORTHERLY
WIND ALSO BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. A 3 TO 4 FT SE SWELL REMAINS
ON THE OCEAN. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT...HOWEVER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AND WINDS
WILL PICK UP LATE. BETTER CHANCES OF 25 KT GUSTS OCCURRING OVER
THE OPEN OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET...ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY MORNING WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SOUND AND EASTERN BAYS.

AS FOR SEAS...LOOKS LIKE BY THE TIME THE FETCH BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE TO BUILD SEAS OVER THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS...WINDS
SUBSIDE. THEREFORE...LESS CONFIDENCE THAT SEAS OVER HERE EVER REACH
5 FT. THE FETCH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE EARLIER IN THE DAY FRIDAY TO
BUILD SEAS UP TO AT LEAST 5 FT FOR ENOUGH OF A PORTION OF THE WATERS
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A SCA ON
THE OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/24
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC/24
AVIATION...MMD/DW
MARINE...JC/24/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/24











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