Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 240731
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
331 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SUNNY AND
WINDY...BUT SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THE MAX WIND SPEED
IN MIXED LAYER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY REMAINS BELOW 40KT. PERHAPS A
FEW SPOTS COULD REACH CRITERIA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS
OCCURRING DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF A WIDESPREAD EVENT TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY AT ANY
PARTICULAR AREA.

850MB TEMPS DURING MAX HEATING ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0C.
CONSIDERING FULL SUN AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FROM STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S FOR
MOST SPOTS...SO THEREFORE WENT WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS GUIDANCE.
VERY DRY AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN FROM ALOFT...SO SIDED WITH THE
LOWER NAM GUIDANCE FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE COMBINED WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER IMPLICATIONS. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND REACHES US LATE
AT NIGHT. WINDS THEREFORE SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLEAR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES. THE GROWING SEASON
WILL BE STARTING TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES...AND
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST LATE AT NIGHT...
PREVENTING OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH
FOR THESE ZONES FOR NOW...INCLUDING ROCKLAND AND NORTHERN
WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...AND HAVE THE DAY SHIFT GET A LOOK AT THE 12Z
MODEL SUITE TO FINE TUNE THE HEADLINES.

CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN DURING FRIDAY...BUT
MORE NOTICEABLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
DEPTH FOR ANY SHOWERS HOLDS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH THE
AREA...SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT THE MIXING DEPTH...AND COASTAL SPOTS
WILL LIKELY BE COOLED WITH A SEA BREEZE. STILL...HIGH TEMPS AT OR
ABOVE TODAY`S FOR SPOTS AWAY FROM THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION...AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA MAY SET OFF
SOME ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER COOL AND UNSETTLED PERIOD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...THEN TEMPERATURES
FALL BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

A GUSTY NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFT WITH DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING AWAY FROM NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

GUSTS WILL VARY OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT....BUT THEN RAMP
BACK TO AROUND 35 KT AFTER 12Z. WINDS SHOULD BE JUST RIGHT OF 310
MAGNETIC. GUSTS WILL BE LOST DURING THE EVENING HOURS THU.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR.
.FRI NIGHT-SAT...VFR. CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.
.MON...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS UP FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCA
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS...THEN
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ENTERS THE REGION. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL UNDER 15 KT.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. THEN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE...LITTLE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND DRY FORECAST 1
AND 10 HOUR FUELS...WILL EXPAND THE RED FLAG WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     CTZ005>008.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JC
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC






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