Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 020539
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
139 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL
IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...WITH WEAK COLD
FRONT CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN END. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
POST-FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
OUTLYING AREAS...WITH LOWS 55-60. AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S IN NYC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPS SIMILAR TO OR ONLY A SHADE LESS WARM THAN THOSE OF
TODAY...WITH NEAR 90 INVOF NYC AND NE NJ...AND MID/UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A MAV/MET MOS BLEND. AS THE HIGH
SETTLES TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC METRO...60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND UPPER 50S ONLY IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE COUNTY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY DUE
TO DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESIDUAL 3FT@8SEC PERIOD SWELLS.
IF SWELLS ARE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE...THE RISK COULD BE HIGH ACROSS
EASTERN BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HOT AND HUMID CONDS ON TAP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK. A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
THE END OF THE WEEK...RESULTING IN COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.

SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...AND A DEEP SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TOP OFF IN
THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TO THE LOW 90S IN/AROUND NYC
AND THE URBANIZED AREAS OF NE NJ. MEANWHILE...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AND MAY APPROACH 70 ALONG THE CT
COAST AND ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE CWA. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW ZONES AS THAT COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

FRONT COMES THROUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND TEMPS FALL BACK
SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR NW ZONES...AND GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ELSEWHERE WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN/AROUND NYC.
DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AND IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH BUILDS EAST AND WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW PRES WILL FORM AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
LATEST MODELS HAVE THE LOW STAYING SOUTH OF THE CWA...RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST...AND THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS EITHER OVER OR
SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ON THURSDAY...AND THEN AGAIN ON
SATURDAY WITH EACH PASSING LOW. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME LOOK TO FALL
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY.

VFR.

LIGHT NW WINDS BACK TO THE SW SUNDAY MORNING. SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS SUN AFTERNOON...WITH
LATE DAY SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES POSSIBLE AT KEWR/KTEB.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MON THROUGH THU...
.SUN NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT S/SW FLOW.
.MON...GUSTY S FLOW. A CHC OF TSTMS LATE.
.MON NIGHT-TUE...CHC TSTMS. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH S
WIND...SHIFTING TO W. PATCHY FOG ACROSS OUTLYING TERMINALS MON
NIGHT.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA LEVELS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVSY.

INCREASING SW FLOW COULD RESULT IN SCA CONDS ON THE OCEAN AND THE
BAYS OF LONG ISLAND MON INTO MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W AND PASSES TO THE N.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$



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