Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 020333
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS EARLY THIS WEEK. A MORE
COMPLEX LOW WILL WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO VALLEY WAS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD LATE
THIS EVENING WHILE ANOTHER WEAK LOW RIDES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. COOL MOIST FLOW IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN
OVERCAST/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG...WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
LEAD TO A PD OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH LIKELY POP. MID LEVELS SHOULD DRY OUT MID TO LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.

ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...
CONDS WILL REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED...AND CAN EXPECT SOME LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS ON TAP WITH HIGHS GENERALLY ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN THEME THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IT WILL THEN TRACK TO THE SE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN MEANDER HERE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THIS
SCENARIO AND THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATIONS/INTENSITY OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE CUTOFF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.

BEFORE THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS...A STALLED FRONT SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND ON TUESDAY ACTS A FOCUS FOR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
AND RIDE ALONG IT. THE REGION WILL ALSO LIE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF 115-125 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TUESDAY MORNING. THE LIKELIHOOD
OF RAIN EXISTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTHERN TIER FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE
BOUNDARY/WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY AND TIMING OF EACH WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SO
DID NOT WANT TO RAISE POPS ANY FURTHER THAN LIKELY. THE UPPER JET
CORE SHIFTS TO THE NE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH DECREASES
LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE ALLOWING POPS TO TAPER DOWN TO SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE.

HAVE GENERALLY KEPT CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PREDICTABILITY WITH ANY SMALLER SCALE FEATURE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF IS RATHER LOW. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS...BUT TIMING THEM AT THIS JUNCTURE IS
RATHER DIFFICULT AND SHOWS HIGH VARIABILITY RUN TO RUN IN THE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. ANY PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE CUTOFF AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COULD BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THE CUTOFF LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SUITE...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVEN DAYS OUT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON MON.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GENERALLY ENE 10 KT OR LESS
THROUGH MON MORNING...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS. CONDS MAY IMPROVE A
LITTLE AFTER DAYBREAK MON BUT STILL REMAIN IFR IN LIGHT RAIN.

LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDS AND ALSO WINDS FOR MOST TERMINALS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MON THROUGH FRI...
.MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AT NIGHT
AS ANOTHER WEAK LOW APPROACHES. EXACT TIMING OF LOWER CONDS
UNCERTAIN. MVFR CONDS MAY RETURN TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR.
.WED-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS AT TIMES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS/FOG/
LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS ARE RUNNING 5-6 FT OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
25 KT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN WITH A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...CAN EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDS
MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEAK WITH
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SEAS MAY PUSH OVER 5 FT LATE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN ADDITIONAL 1/4-1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUE.
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF RAINFALL CONTINUE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING...LOCATION...AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...GOODMAN/MPS/DS
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MPS/DS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.