Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 092124
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST PASSES WELL SOUTH AND
EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN LIFTS
SLOWLY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF THE DELMARVA THIS EVENING...AND THEN
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND TOWARDS THE 40/70 BENCHMARK LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AND THEN AS BANDS OF
MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW...THOSE BANDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST NAM KEEPS THE HEAVIER BANDS
OFFSHORE...WHILE THE LATEST GFS BRINGS THEM ACROSS NYC AND LONG
ISLAND. LATEST ECMWF DOES NOT REALLY INDICATE MUCH BANDING...AND
HAS MINIMAL LIQUID QPF OVERALL. IF THOSE SNOW BANDS MATERIALIZE
AND MOVE ONSHORE...THOSE AREAS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW...WITH SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...PICKING UP 3-5 INCHES. THE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WIDELY
VARIABLE...WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE ADVISORY NOT GETTING MUCH
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOW. IT ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE
THE BANDS SET UP.

IN ADDITION...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THERE IS A BIT OF
A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S INLAND TO THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEPART ON WEDNESDAY...AND ANY SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. DRY CONDS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
THROUGHOUT. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH 40 IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS PERIOD
WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS PLUNGING
SOUTH FROM THE ARCTIC AND INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND. IN
FACT...HEIGHT AND TEMP FIELD ANOMALIES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 3-5 SD
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 85H TEMPS SAT AND SAT NIGHT
-25 TO -30 DEG C. THIS WILL EQUATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS ON SAT
STRUGGLING TO GET TO 20 AND NOT OUT OF THE TEENS ON SUN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO WITH WIND
CHILLS MEETING ADVISORY CRITERIA...-15 TO -24 DEG F.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRI PASSES
THROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON AND
IN FACT MANY YEARS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. A STRONG NW FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT ON THU BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND AGAIN SAT AND SUN
BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. IN FACT...WINDS ON THESE DAYS WILL
LIKELY GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THUS...THIS WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS SAT INTO SUN.

AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING OF A SNOW SQUALL ASSOC WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH
SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS. AIRMASS
MODERATES SIGNIFICANTLY MON INTO TUE WITH HIGH IN 30S MON AND INTO
THE 40S ON TUE. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A SNOW TO RAIN EVENT...BUT
THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH AND ENTER THE
REGION TONIGHT.

MOSTLY MVFR...BUT SOME VFR NORTH OF THE CITY THRU MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CATS LOWER THIS EVENING WITH SNOW. FOR ALL
TERMINALS...THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE
THE ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW.

SNOW ACCUMS IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDS
MORNING.

WINDS E TO VAR AROUND 5KT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COULD POSSIBLY PREVAIL INSTEAD OF TEMPO
THRU 23Z. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COULD POSSIBLY PREVAIL INSTEAD OF TEMPO
THRU 23Z. ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 23Z. ONSET OF
STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO VFR POSSIBLE BEFORE 23Z. ONSET OF
STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF SUB-VFR COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
ONSET OF STEADIER SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: VFR COULD POSSIBLY PREVAIL INSTEAD OF TEMPO
BEFORE 23Z...BUT TEMPO VFR MIGHT NOT OCCUR AT ALL. ONSET OF STEADIER
SNOW THIS EVENING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDS PM...VFR. W GUSTS 20-25KT.
.THU...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. WNW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT...SLIGHT CHC -SHSN...OTHERWISE VFR. NW GUSTS 25-30KT.
.SUN...VFR. NW GUSTS 20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS PERSIST ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAINLY FOR HIGH SEAS
TONIGHT. THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WEDNESDAY...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT WILL DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS LATE IN THE MORNING. WILL
HOIST SCA FOR THE SOUND/HARBOR/BAYS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN...GALES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO
AHEAD AND ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GALE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THU WITH A
STRONG NW GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WINDS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT WITH
SEAS POSSIBLY LINGERING AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS. NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS RETURN SAT INTO SUN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS.

LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT WIT SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MON INTO TUE WITH THE
CHANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT. THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PTYPE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A GRADUALLY DOWNWARD TREND IN SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS FOR NY
HARBOR...COASTAL NE NJ AND WESTERN LI SOUND WITH THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...AND LOCALLY MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF
LONG ISLAND. SURGE LOWERS FURTHER FOR WEDNESDAY MORNINGS HIGH TIDE
CYCLE...WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES
OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS...NY HARBOR...NE NJ...AND WESTERN LI SOUND.

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHTS HIGH
TIDE...WITH ANY BRIEF LOCALIZED MINOR IMPACTS LIKELY BEING RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LI.

SURF WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER SO BEACH IMPACTS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS FORECAST SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...RECORD MINIMUMS AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS MAY BE REACHED.
HERE ARE THE RECORDS:

STATION.........RECORD MINIMUM.............RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
                   FOR 2/14                     FOR 2/14

NYC.................2 (1916)....................17 (1979)....
LGA.................1 (1979)....................15 (1979)....
JFK.................4 (1979)....................17 (1979)....
ISP.................7 (2015)....................26 (1987)....
EWR.................0 (1979)....................15 (1979)....
BDR.................3 (2015*)...................18 (1979)....

*IN 1979 AS WELL

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ009>012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ009.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     CTZ009.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NYZ074-075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ074-075-080-178-179.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ071-078-177.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-
     004-006-103>108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ006-106-108.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS/DW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MPS/DW
HYDROLOGY...MPS/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...JP


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