Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 190011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
811 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK...WITH OVERALL A SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY
WITH NORTHERN BRANCH OF UPPER LEVEL JET STAYING NORTH OF THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. THE AXIS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NEAR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND
THEY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE LOWER POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
THINK ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR FOR AREAS OF FROST WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT WILL
BE VERY LOCALIZED AND RESTRICTED TO BEST COOLING SPOTS FARTHER
SOUTH.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 3/4 MET AND 1/4 MAV...WHICH
IS PREFERRING THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. VALUES OVERALL WILL BE
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...RIDGING TREND IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL BEHIND THE
TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND KEEP A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WITH WINDS BEING OUT OF THE
NORTH. THE SETUP IS THERE FOR A MUCH WARMER DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MARINE INFLUENCE TO A MINIMUM AND
DOWNSLOPE WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN AT THE COAST. MAX
TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF 1/2 MAV AND 1/2 GMOS AND INCREASED BY
TWO...PREFERRING THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 5-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS...A
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL RESULT WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. WHILE THE SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS...AN INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE LOWER DEWPOINTS. WHILE THE LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...THE RH LEVELS WILL BE LOWER...LIMITING FROST POTENTIAL.

SUNDAY WITH THIS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AND MORE ONSHORE COMPONENT
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AT THE COAST. THERE WILL BE
MORE MARINE INFLUENCE. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF ECE AND GMOS AND WILL
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES. STILL KEEPING CLOUDS LOWER WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NOT TOO FAR AWAY...THEREBY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL AID IN LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MONDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. 12Z GFS KEEPS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY
THEREFORE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING TONIGHT. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING GUSTY ON SAT
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT STRATUS DEVELOPS...BUT IF IT
DOES OCCUR...WOULD EXPECT EASTERN TERMINALS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHC DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO SEE ON IR SAT NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET WITH THE VEIL
OF HIGH CLOUDS OHD.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. TIMING OF
GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. TIMING OF
GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. TIMING OF
GUSTS DIMINISHING MAY BE +/- 1-2 HOURS.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. GUSTS MAY
DIMINISH A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: FROPA TIMING BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. GUSTS MAY
DIMINISH A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS RETURNING TONIGHT. FROPA
TIMING BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. GUSTS MAY DIMINISH A A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT-TUE AFTN...VFR.
.TUE LATE AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS...COLD
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10Z SATURDAY AS LINGERING EASTERLY
SWELL KEEPS HIGHER SEAS WITHIN THE FORECAST COASTAL OCEAN ZONES.

ELSEWHERE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GAINING CONTROL. ONCE THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN SUBSIDE
EARLY SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AS WELL THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO MOSTLY 20 KT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SCA EVENT FOR OCEAN SEAS ON SUNDAY WITH THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SEAS ACROSS OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY DAY SATURDAY WITH GUSTY N-NW FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE LOWER RH VALUES. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 18 AND 30 PERCENT MOSTLY. WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 20-25
MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINFALL EVENT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SPECIFY EXACT AMOUNTS OR ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS - IF ANY.

NOTE...MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
FROM NWS TAUNTON MA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FIG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...
MARINE...FIG/JM
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...FIG/JM








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