Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 202129
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
229 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS TRANSPORTING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE NW US TODAY..AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...WITH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
GETTING THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE THE LOWEST AMOUNTS. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW IS GENERALLY MILD
TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. THE CENTRAL
MTNS MAY RECEIVE MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FT...WHILE
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS MAY SEE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 7500 FT.
VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN. THE EASTERN PAC RIDGE
BUILDS BACK UP ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC NW
TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL LESSEN THE MOISTURE FEED...WHILE
DIMINISHING PRECIP ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE MTNS WILL
STILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP INTO MONDAY...BUT WITH REDUCED
AMOUNTS. PRECIP WILL DIMINSH OVERALL BY MON NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN US.

SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUN MORN ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. BY AFTN...WINDS MAY BE GUSTING TO 45
MPH. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU SUN EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE NEXT
MOIST SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH CHRISTMAS
DAY BEING WET. HOWEVER...THEY STILL DISAGREE ON TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVING EVERYONE A WHITE
CHRISTMAS DAY. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS MODEL KEEPS SNOW LEVELS AROUND
5000 TO 5500 FEET. EXPECT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH RELATIVELY
DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...A VERY MOIST SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO IFR/MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUING  THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW EVENING. CIGS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KIDA MAY BE
THE ONLY EXCEPTION AS MODELS ARE KEEPING MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KIDA
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT
IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
IDZ018.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-025.

&&

$$






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