Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 031526
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
826 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...

EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS PER RADAR TRENDS. EVEN THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE...ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1 AND 5 INCHES
DEPENDING UPON ELEVATION...ROADS ARE EXTREMELY ICY ESPECIALLY IN
THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE MULTIPLE SLIDE OFFS HAVE BEEN REPORTED.
STILL EXPECT SNOW TO COME TO AN END AROUND NOON WITH CLEARING
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

VALLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS PROPAGATING
SOUTHWARD. GUSTY WIND HAS ALSO DEVELOPED BUT IS ALSO KEEPING
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WARM...SO WIND CHILL NOT REALLY BAD. WHEN THE
FRONT PRESSES THROUGH...WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST AND WEST TO
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. GUSTS NOT QUITE UP TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED...SO
HAVE REDUCED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
BY 03/18Z...SO HAVE SHORTENED THE DURATION OF THE ADVISORY A
LITTLE BIT MORE. COLDER AIR MASS MOVING IN WILL MEAN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TAKES OVER TONIGHT AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD. MARCH SUNSHINE WILL MEAN A LARGE TEMPERATURE SWING
BACK TO ABOVE 40 DEG IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY THU. LITTLE WIND
OR WEATHER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE. MAIN THREAT COULD BE FOG OR
STRATUS...BUT WE ARE NEARLY OUT OF SEASON NOW THAT IT IS MARCH.
MESSICK

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF GOING BACK
AND FORTH WITH THE TROF/NON-TROF FRI NIGHT. FIRST THE GFS HAS THE
TROF MOVING THRU NE ID FRI NIGHT...THE ECMWF DOES NOT. NEXT NIGHT
THE SITUATION IS REVERSED. THIS CYCLE...ANOTHER REVERSAL. WILL STAY
THE COURSE AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE DIVIDE AND WY BORDER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. EVEN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO DOES NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST...WHICH MEANS DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. HEDGES

AVIATION...SNOW IS SPREADING FROM N TO S ACROSS ERN ID EARLY THIS
MORN AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF DROPS IN FROM THE N. IFR
CIGS/VIS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT KIDA AND KPIH...WITH LESS
IMPACTS AT KBYI AND KSUN. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT KIDA
THIS AFTN...BUT A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN/EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY MAY RESULT IN LINGERING SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO
THE EVE. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY IDZ017-021-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY IDZ019-023.

&&

$$



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