Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 302237
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
437 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATING EVENING FORECAST TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SNAKE
PLAIN BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.

VALLE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING
UPPER RIDGE TODAY/THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO FIRE
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST IDAHO. WEAK CONVECTION ALREADY
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL MTNS AND JUST NORTH OF
NEVADA BORDER. MODELS APPEAR TO BE PICKING UP THESE AREAS WELL
WITH PROGRESSION INTO EASTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING. NAM
AND GFE THE WETTEST MODELS ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALONG
THE DIVIDE. HAVE SPLIT POPS FOR THE EVENING WITH LOWER VALUES
AFTER SUNSET ALONG WITH LOSS OF THUNDER. RIDGE REBOUNDS THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH AXIS THROUGH UTAH/WYOMING. COULD SEE SPOTTY CONVECTION
FIRE AGAIN IN SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND ALONG DIVIDE. DIFFERENCE IS
THAT RESONSIBLE SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH NEGATIVE TILT. BOTH NAM AND GFS KEEP
CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN ZONES. HAVE
MAINTAINED SCATTERED POPS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA BUT KEPT
OUT MENTION OF THUNDER. THIS REGION BLOOMS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY WITH REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS ONCE AGAIN. SNAKE PLAIN SHOULD STAY DRY IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE BUT KEPT WEAK POPS ACROSS THE REGION IN CASE. AIR MASS AT
THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPPORTING STRONGER STORMS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
ADDING GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL TO WX GRIDS BUT CERTAINLY SEE THE
POTENTIAL. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IDAHO LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. TIMING APPEARS TO FAVOR REDEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY BUT KEPT
WEAK POPS GOING MONDAY NIGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR POTENTIAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES. DMH

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS KEEP A BROAD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH ADVANCING
INTO WA/OR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS AND ECMWF PUSH A SHORTWAVE THROUGH
IDAHO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN DEEPEN UPPER TROUGH INTO CALIFORNIA
BY THURSDAY. GFS MAINTAINS A MORE ACTIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT
FLOW ON FRIDAY AND IS THUS A BIT WETTER THAN THE ECMWF HOWEVER THE
ECMWF DOES EXPAND ITS QPF FIELD INTO IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
INSTABILITY AROUND PEAK HEATING. GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH PATTERN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND SUGGESTS DRIER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HINSBERGER

AVIATION...WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER RIDGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING THIS
INFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THOUGH A HEAVY SHOWER OVER
THE TERMINALS MAY BRIEFLY BRING LOWERED VIS. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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