Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 040143
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
743 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNT AND PRECIP PROBABILITY ACROSS THE ERN HIGHLANDS AND DECREASE IT
ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS...ERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SOUTH-CNTRL
HIGHLANDS WHERE RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWED DIMINISHING SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS HELD BACK CONVECTION. THERE ARE SOME
WEAK SPOTS IN THE CLOUD COVER WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS SAY MUCH OF THE AREA IS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO SHORT
OF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURE NEEDED FOR CONVECTION TO BE
SUCCESSFUL. THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SOME LIGHTING HAS BEEN DETECTED
OVER THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SAYS AIRMASS IS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE TOWARDS JACKPOT NEVADA. SO WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE THE CLOUDS WILL WIN OUT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR
ONE INCH...SO THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GOOD RAIN UP TO HALF INCH.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING UP FROM SALT LAKE
WILL PROGRESS ALONG THE IDAHO AND WYOMING BORDER THIS EVENING.
TUESDAY...INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW COMES IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY. THE GFS STILL BRINGS A
DISTURBANCE ACROSS CALIFORNIA FRIDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE AND THOSE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THERE
IS MINIMAL AGREEMENT THAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BE DRY DAYS. RS &&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN A RISK AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SLOW CLEARING STARTING THIS EVENING
OUT WEST AND FINALLY AT KIDA CLOSER TO 12Z TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS
OUTSIDE OF STORMS OF 20-30KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET AND
TOMORROW UP TO 20 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST VCSH OR VCTS AT ALL SITES...WITH POTENTIALLY
A BETTER CHANCE AT KBYI AND KSUN. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO DROP THE RED
FLAG WARNING AND DECREASE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OWING TO RECENT
RADAR RETURNS AND LIGHTNING DETECTION. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. HUSTON

SOMETIMES FORECASTS RIDE A VERY THIN LINE. TODAY LOOKED PRETTY
STORMY ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY WHERE WE SAW CLEARING SKIES OR
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. SO FAR...THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH OF THAT. THAT
SAID...WE ARE FINALLY SEE SOME LIGHTNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE ARE STILL HOLDING WITH A RED FLAG WARNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE ARE SEEING THOSE POCKETS OF CLEARING
INCREASING...SO THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR PLENTY OF LIGHTNING
STRIKES IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL A RISK. WE
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH MORE STORMS DEVELOPING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDERS. IT IS BORDERLINE FOR A RED
FLAG FOR OUR SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED
AFTER WE GET THROUGH WITH TODAY`S POTENTIAL ISSUES. THAT THREAT
CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE TREND THERE IS FOR MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES AND ZONE
411 ALONG IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS/WESTERN WYOMING. COVERAGE
WILL BE LESS ELSEWHERE BUT STILL COULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE FLOW TURNS
WESTERLY. UNFORTUNATELY...WE MAY NEED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT LOWER
HUMIDITY AND WINDS BOTH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC
VALLEY. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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