Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 261959
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
159 PM MDT MON SEP 26 2016

.Discussion...Monday night through Thursday. The high pressure ridge
reaches maximum strength this afternoon, then flattens some on
Tuesday with a disturbance passing north of here. Surface based
inversions should maintain the next couple of nights, perhaps with a
little warming on the upper slopes. For morning lows, resisted
bringing temperatures up more than a degree or two. Otherwise, light
winds and fair skies until Wednesday evening. Models favor some
moisture and a slight chance of showers slipping into the Caribou
and South Central Highlands late Wednesday night or Early Thursday
morning. RS

&&

.AVIATION...VFR weather will continue. The potential for fog
affecting any TAF site, mainly KDIJ, remains pretty low.  Keyes

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Monday. We are still headed down
the "cool and wet" path for later this week and heading into the
next one. There is still some discrepancy with shower and
thunderstorm coverage Thursday as what`s left of the low from the
southwest moves through eastern Idaho. Despite that, there is
increasing confidence in the chance of rain especially across the
southeast highlands. As we go back to an overall trough of low
pressure over the West, we will multiple rounds of showers and
possible afternoon storms through early next week.  The models
continue to key in on better chance of precipitation on Friday and
Saturday, and we keep pushing chances upward because of better
confidence/agreement. The same for Monday. The "fly in the ointment"
appears to be Sunday as the GFS maintains a dry slot over us, while
the ECMWF waivers back and forth. We kept with a blended forecast,
which leans toward drier but keep mountain showers in the mix. Make
sure you keep those jackets handy as this brief spell of warm
weather will be out of here again by Saturday. Keyes

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$



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