Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 200848
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
248 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS MAKING
ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH. MOS GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING WINDS BEGINNING TO DECLINE AFTER 15Z TODAY AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS. AS THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN LATER TODAY...WE BEGIN TO FOCUS
ON A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEST ON TUESDAY. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A NEGATIVE TILT. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THIS WILL BE A WET AND WINDY SYSTEM IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
IDAHO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF
INSTABILITY. HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROF DEEPENING TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MT BY WED EVE. MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON
WED...WHILE VALLEY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM W TO
EAST. BY WED EVE...ONLY WIDELY SCT MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY
FRI AS A NEW UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN AGREEMENT AGAIN...BUT THEY SOON PART COMPANY. THE ECMWF ROTATES A
SHORT WAVE THRU ID BY SAT MORN AND HOLDS THE MAIN SYSTEM OFFSHORE...
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE MAIN SYSTEM ONTO THE WEST COAST. AS FAR AS
THE RESULTING FCST...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRI...BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON SAT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN ABOVE 7500 FT BOTH FRI AND SAT. THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED THRU SUN...SO WILL CARRY PRECIP THRU SUN AND SLOWLY BACK
OFF THE CHANCES SUN NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAINING COOL THRU THE
WEEKEND. HEDGES
&&

.AVIATION...A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THRU SE ID EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SW WINDS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTN.
CIG/VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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