Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 230544
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1044 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

Updated to expire red flag warning for today. Red flag warning for
Thursday remains in effect.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 343 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

...Very Windy Tomorrow With High to Extreme Fire Danger...

Currently...

Breezy to windy conditions were occurring along the I-25 corridor
and the higher terrain this afternoon. Temperatures were quite warm
with reading in the  the mid 60s to mid 70s across the plain and 50s
in the valleys. Red Flag conditions were occurring mainly along the
greater I-25 corridor region as dewpts were in the single digits in
quite a few places leading to RHs in the 10-15% range. In the
central mtns, a few  snow showers were likely ongoing.

Tonight...

A very mild night is in store as light westerly flow will  continue
across the lower elevations with some modest sw sfc flow closer to
the mtns. This will keep temps in the 40s across a good part of the
plains, especially south of US 50. Winds will keep up at the higher
elevations of the mtns. Snow showers will be on the increase,
especially after midnight across the continental divide, especially
over the central mtns. Accumulations of less than 2 inches will be
possible, mainly over the c mtns. Towards sunrise, hi res guidance
indicates a strong 80-100 knt 500 mb jet moving into south central
Colorado.

Tomorrow...

the strong 500 mb jet will move across the southern tier of the
county warning area tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. At mid
levels, temps will drop several degrees during the day while in the
meantime, strong downslope flow (and associated adiabatic warming)
continues at the surface. This will cause the lapse rates to become
dry adiabatic across a good part of the plains, and this in turn
will help transport the strong winds (and very dry air) down towards
the surface.

Given the above, a dangerous red flag day is in store for the region
as winds will be gusting to 40 to 50 mph across the plains tomorrow,
especially south and east of Pueblo. A RED FLAG WARNING has already
been issued for tomorrow for all of the plains, excluding northern
El Paso county. I should note that it will also be quite windy
across all of El Paso county, however, due to the cooler air, the RH
values across N El Paso county will likely remain above critical
values.

Temps tomorrow will be cooler than today as cold air advection moves
over the region, and expect highs only in the 50s and mid 60s across
the plains. Areas in N El Paso county may note get out of the 40s.

In the mtns, especially the c mtns, snow will occur and several
inches of new snow will be possible. Snow shower with an inch or two
will be possible in the sw mtns. Snow showers may occur across the
remainder of the higher elevations.

By late in the day, the surface cold front will begin to move across
the plains, and should be located roughly along the US-50 corridor by
00Z.

Friday...

Much cooler air will move into the region, and it will start to feel
like February once again. Max temps will only reach into the 30s and
40s across the plains. It will be breezy across the lower elevations
with wind chills in the 20s and 30s. remnant troughieness over the
mtns will keep snow showers ongoing across the central mountain
region. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

Friday night-Sunday night...Moderate westerly flow aloft progged
across region Friday night and Saturday, as an upper low across the
Upper Midwest continues to lift north and east and a flat upper
ridge builds across the state. Southwest flow increases across the
region through the day Sunday, as an Eastern Pacific trough digs
across the Great Basin and continues across the Rockies Sunday
night. Showers over the higher terrain Friday afternoon diminish
Friday evening, with some light orographic snow possible through the
day Saturday along the ContDvd. Snow increases across the ContDvd
Saturday night and Sunday, with snow and rain showers spreading east
over the high mountain valleys to the Eastern Mountains Sunday
afternoon and evening, with some showers possible across the I-25
corridor and eastern plains associated with passing cold front. Pops
to diminish Sunday night. Quick movement of this system to limit
snow totals, though could see low end advisory amounts across
portions of the ContDvd. Temperatures look to be at or below
seasonal averages through the period.

Monday-Wednesday...Moderate westerly flow early Monday behind the
passing trough gives way to increasing southwest flow once again
through the day Tuesday, as another Eastern Pacific system digs
across the Great Basin and continues across the Rockies through
Tuesday night. This system will bring another round of snow,
possibly heavy at times, to the ContDvd starting late Monday morning
and continuing through early Tuesday. Increasing westerly flow
Monday will help boost temperatures and increase fire danger across
the eastern plains Monday afternoon, with another quick shot of
generally light rain and snow for southeast Colorado on Tuesday
behind the system`s associated cold front. Drier weather, save for
possible snow showers across the Central Mountains, with moderating
temperatures expected across the area on Wednesday with northwest
flow aloft behind the passing system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1040 PM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

Gusty winds will be the main concern at the TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. A cold front has pushed through KCOS with some
gusty north winds...and may move into the KPUB terminal between
06 and 07z. Winds will diminish at both terminals late tonight then
shift out southwest then west Thursday morning with gusts to 35 to
40 kts possible during the afternoon. A cold front will drop south
of the Palmer Divide during the afternoon with estimated time of
arrival at KCOS around 21z...and at Pueblo later in the evening.
Gusts up to 35 kts will be possible...and VFR cigs and VCSH will
be possible near COS towards the end of the TAF forecast window.

KALS will see breezy southwest winds all night with winds
increasing during the morning with gusts to 35 kts possible during
the afternoon. Winds will diminish during the early evening. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Thursday for COZ227>237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT



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