Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 010547
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1147 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

...Good chance of rain for most of the plains tonight...

Currently...showers and thunderstorms building steadily over the
eastern mountains. Main shortwave is now moving into southeast WY
and the NE panhandle, while another upper low is steadily moving
east through southern AZ and N Mexico. Dew points are in the
upper 40s to lower 50s over the plains. Respectable low level
moisture, weak to moderate upslope, and upper forcing from the two
low pressure systems will combine for a good chance of precip
tonight, especially over the eastern mountains and plains. There
was considerable inconsistency in the 12Z model runs for timing
and placement of greater QPF, but high res short term guidance
such as the HRRR is starting to congeal on a general solution for
late this afternoon and tonight. Looks like a wide band of
moderate to occasionally heavy precip will develop over the Pikes
Peak region over the next several hours, then translate SEWD
across the I-24 corridor and Plains this evening and overnight,
then linger across the Raton region and SE plains Wed morning.
Main concern will be the potential for localized flooding,
although precip rates should not be all that intense. Early cloud
cover has limited instability, with CAPE currently in the 500-1000
j/kg over the region this afternoon. Best chance for precip over
the KCOS to KPUB area will be late this afternoon through early
evening, before the heavier precip shifts to the SE later tonight.
QPF amounts generally in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range, with some
localized inch or more amounts.

Will also see some higher elevation snow late this afternoon through
tonight, mainly above 11000 feet. Summit of Pikes Peak could see
around 4-6 inches of snow through Wed morning, and tops of Wets and
Sangres an inch or two.

Continued cool on Wed with lingering cloud cover through the early
morning hours, and persistent showers to the south and east. A strong
upper ridge will begin to build to our west tomorrow, but a weak
shortwave rounding the east side of the ridge will spark another
round of showers and storms Wed afternoon, primary over the
mountains and far eastern Plains. The I-25 corridor potentially
could stay dry tomorrow afternoon. High temps will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s for the plains, and 50s-60s for the mountains
and high valleys. Rose

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Wed night through Fri an upr level ridge wl be building ovr the
SW U.S. and the forecast area wl be on the front side of this ridge.
There wl still be enough mstr ovr the area Thu for isold to sct
afternoon and evening showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns.  On Fri it
generally looks like just some isold showers/tstms could develop ovr
the mtn areas.  On Thu, high temps are expected to be around
average, and then on Fri highs wl be warmer than average.

Sat the upr ridge wl be centered over the Great Basin.  A front is
expected to drop south through the southeast CO plains on Sat.  It
looks a little more active Sat afternoon and evening, with scattered
showers/tstms over the mtn and high valley areas, and possibly
spread out over the I-25 corridor as well.  High temps on Sat are
expected to be a little above average.

On Sun an upper level low is expected to be centered over central
CA, while the forecast area wl still be under NW flow aloft. On Mon
that upper low is expected to move eastward into srn NV.  There wl
still be enough mstr ovr the area both days for at least scattered
showers/tstms ovr and nr the mtns, with isold chances ovr the
southeast plains.  Highs both days are expected to be above average.

Tue that low is expected to weaken and become an open wave.  There
are some model differences as to where this system wl track, with
the ecmwf being farther west and north than the gfs which brings it
into wrn CO Tue afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Tue May 31 2016

Primary concern tonight will be MVFR, IFR, and potential LIFR
conditions due to low CIGS at KPUB and KCOS. Evening rainfall
across KPUB and KCOS has moistened the boundary layer
considerably priming the atmosphere for low stratus development.
At KPUB, weak upslope flow in a moist environment will allow for
IFR and LIFR CIGS to develop between 07-13Z. Latest high res
models suggest a brief window of opportunity for fog development
at KPUB between 09-11Z, but suspect winds will remain just strong
enough to prevent fog from forming. At KCOS MVFR to IFR CIGS are
likely between 07-13Z. Weak downslope winds out of the NNE will
likely keep LIFR conditions from developing. KCOS and KALS will
begin to see VCTS starting around 19Z tomorrow as storms form over
the higher terrain and drift eastward towards the terminals.
Lukinbeal/Petersen

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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