Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 261916
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINA COAST ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT AND HAS LOST MOST OF ITS
INSTABILITY COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS MORNING. RUC SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z
DEPICT A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...MORE SO EAST HALF. SINCE ATMOSPHERE
WEAKLY CAPPED IN THE WEST-SW...COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
DEVELOP...OTHERWISE MOST OF CENTRAL NC SHOULD REMAIN SHOWER-FREE
WELL INTO THE EVENING. STEADY SW FLOW INTO THE EVENING WILL AID TO
KEEP TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH THE EVENING. MOST LOCALES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY LATE THIS EVENING
AND MORE SO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SFC COLD FRONT SLIDES SEWD
ACROSS THE REGION. BULK OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AS
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SW...SETTING UP AN
OVERRUNNING SCENARIO.  POPS WILL INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT NW HALF...AND ELSEWHERE DURING THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS.

MIN TEMPS FOR MOST FOLKS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSE TO OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK. MIN TEMPS 40S TO NEAR 50 NORTH....50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...COINCIDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 850-700MB TROUGHS.
STRONG LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY STABILIZING BY MID AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION...ACCOMPANIED
BY A FEW SHOWERS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS OF LIFT/MOISTURE DO DEPICT
ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION TO CAUSE SNOW TO FORM
ALOFT. HOWEVER THE LOWER LAYERS ARE DRYING OUT TO SUCH A DEGREE THAT
ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL LIKELY MELT AND/OR EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS WILL CONFINE MENTION OF PRECIP TO RAIN
SHOWERS FOR NOW. LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN WELL MIXED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MIXING ALONG WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES
MAY AID TO KEEP TEMPS UP A BIT IN SPITE OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SOME MOS GUIDANCE HAS MIN TEMPS BY EARLY SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30 OVER THE PIEDMONT. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE EXTREME SO AM
MORE IN FAVOR OF MIN TEMPS NEAR FREEZING NW TO THE MID-UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR AND SFC WINDS DECOUPLE...COULD
SEE AN ARGUMENT FOR MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...

THIS WEEKEND: THE MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES... IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN AIRMASS
THAT FEATURES LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ABOUT 60M BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND AMPLE SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY...HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB TO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT...LOOK FOR SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPS ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL NC...THANKS TO THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
AIRMASS...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER. RIGHT NOW WE`RE SHOWING LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE TRIAD TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BUT WITH
THE HIGH CENTERED OVER US BY 12Z SUN...THOSE TEMPS MAY END UP EVEN
COLDER IN SPOTS. WE`LL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MODERATION ON SUNDAY AS THE
HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEG BELOW
NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BUT ASIDE
FROM A FEW PASSING SPRINKLES...RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT FEATURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS MOSTLY DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS
OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THAT
FRONT APPEARS TO COME THROUGH DRY AS WELL...GIVEN THAT THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO OUR
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME....LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
WARMUP...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL THANKS TO THE PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING AND BECOMING MORE ZONAL WITH TIME ACROSS OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...

CURRENT MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR
ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY MID AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ALOFT MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. SFC
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SW WITH FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-
24KTS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS.
THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN BETWEEN 07Z-10Z...AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INCLUDING KFAY
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE NOTED BY SFC WINDS QUICKLY
VEERING TO A NLY DIRECTION AND BECOMING BLUSTERY WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS
PROBABLE.

THE ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO
SATURDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NWLY AND ADVECTS A DRIER AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS



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