Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 120207
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1005 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1005 PM FRIDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS EAST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND A
WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE CWA TODAY...THOUGH WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE AS DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN WITH DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND PW NOW DOWN TO AROUND INCH.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EDGING
IN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...IF NOT
CALM OVERNIGHT.  THERE IS STILL A RIBBON OF MOISTURE AROUND 925
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RAOBS ALONG THE NC COAST...AND THE
RAP IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT
ADVECTS THIS MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN.  OTHER NWP ARE
NOT NEARLY AGGRESSIVE WITH STRATUS AND SUGGEST AREAS OF FOG MORE
LIKELY INTO THE PIEDMONT UNDER THE DRY AIR ALOFT.  LOWS 65-70. -BLS

FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT: EXPECT QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD... WITH BELOW NORMAL PW VALUES
UNDER 1.2 INCHES AND WARM AND SINKING MID LEVELS. ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHALLOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SE CWA... AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE...
THE CHANCES OF ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL GETTING INTO CENTRAL NC IS VERY
LOW... GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE COLUMN EXPECTED. RECENT MODEL RUNS
ARE DRY OVER CENTRAL NC... INCLUDING THE SREF WHICH HAS A 10% OR
LOWER CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIP. WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST... AND HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 90... FOLLOWING
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST THICKNESSES. LOWS SAT NIGHT 66-71
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

MID LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW THAT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL START TO RECOVER
SOME ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH PWAT VALUES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY 1.2-1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW SOME
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
BETTER CHANCE OF MOSTLY DIURNAL TYPE STORMS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE RATHER LOW. IF ANY PRECIP DOES AFFECT THE
AREA...THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT (FROM
CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN) AND THEN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SEABREEZE. BY SUNDAY...MAX LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO NEAR 1430M...SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY
LOW TO MID 90S (ALTHOUGH MORE CLOUDS MAY BE AROUND WHICH WOULD
TEMPER THE WARMING SOME). OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY...

A DEEP VORTEX IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THEREFORE...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FOR NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. ALSO...GIVEN THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH...
THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND THEREFORE THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST AND THIS WILL
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THEN THERE IS STILL A GOOD
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO IF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE AREA...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN CAROLINA. THUS...WILL SHOW A LITTLE
DECREASE IN POPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP A
CHANCE IN (HIGHES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA)
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO WHERE THE FRONT ENDS UP. HIGH
TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE PRECIP...TEMPS COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER ON TUESDAY. THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN THE DEEP TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 837 PM FRIDAY...

FRONT NOW LIES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA... AND THE MAIN BAND OF CLOUDS
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND INTO SC. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... HOWEVER PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM WINDS... CLEARING
SKIES... AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOG WILL GENERALLY RESULT
IN MVFR VISBYS... AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF IFR AT SITES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY... KRWI AND KFAY. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS WILL HOLD OVER THE
WEEKEND... CAUSING VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH MON...
ALTHOUGH RWI/FAY MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF SUB-VFR FOG NEAR DAYBREAK
SUN AND AGAIN MON. A STORM SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUE/WED. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD/BLS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/BLS
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...SEC/HARTFIELD


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