Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 030600
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1255 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the Carolinas from the northwest
through Saturday night. A storm system will move from northern
Mexico across Texas and the Gulf Coast states into the Southeast
states Sunday through Tuesday, bringing unsettled weather for North
Carolina.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 855 PM Friday...

Little change required to the near term forecast.

Surface high pressure centered over the central Plains will continue
to gradually drift east-southeast overnight into Saturday. This
weather feature along with a dry wly flow aloft should maintain
clear-mostly clear skies overnight across central NC. The dry air in
place at the surface has allowed temps to drop into the 40s and
upper 30s early this evening. The temps will stabilize overnight,
resulting in min temperatures generally in the low-mid 30s, with
upper 20s/around 30 in the well sheltered locations in the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Timing of the approaching storm system that is expected to develop
over Texas and the NW Gulf of Mexico is still expected Sunday night
and Monday; however, as high pressure at the surface extends down
the eastern seaboard later in the weekend, moisture will return from
the Atlantic as a coastal front forms Saturday through Sunday. This
means increasing clouds and chilly temperatures Saturday into Sunday.
We will begin to increase the chance of light rain/drizzle with the
coastal front to the SE on Sunday afternoon and night. Depending on
how much precip falls, cold air damming (CAD) will most likely
develop Sunday and linger as the system approaches early next week.
We will trend POP up Sunday afternoon and night and trend
temperatures down below guidance Sunday anticipating the development
of CAD with the cool/dry air initially in place aiding in it`s
development. Many Piedmont areas may stay in the 40s Sunday
depending on timing of rain and CAD development.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM Friday...

A weak wave will move up the Carolina coast early Monday and
depending upon its track could bring some rain to central NC and
points east. The best chances for rain will be across the south and
east before a lull in precipitation on Monday afternoon and evening.

The real weather maker of the long term will be Monday night and
Tuesday with a Miller B scenario that will bring two lows out of the
deep south, one which will move up the coast and the other west of
the Appalachians and up through the Tennessee Valley. The upshot is
an extended period of rain Monday night and Tuesday with enough
dynamic to bring some heavier amounts to the area. That being said,
forecast soundings are very stable with a strong warm nose over the
area that will be hard to overcome so the threat for any thunder at
this time seems low but a change in the track of the coastal low
could change that. Warmer but a large temperature gradient across
the area with low 50s in the Triad to low 60s in the southeast.

Wednesday and Thursday will be tranquil and mild with clear to
scattered clouds. A few showers cross the region Thursday evening in
advance of a much colder airmass moving southeastward from the
central US. Precipitation should be well east of the area by the
time surface temperatures fall to or below 0C.  1000-500 mb
thicknesses in the 1510 to 1520 range on Friday so max temps will
be in the 40s. Minimum temperatures Friday night will be in the 20s,
perhaps in the upper teens in the Triad.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 1255 AM Saturday...

High confidence in VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Surface
high pressure will continue to build into the region today, with
deep dry air as mid level ridging shifts over the Southeast states.
Only a thin veil of high clouds is expected across the area today,
although clouds will become more opaque with lowering bases to
12,000-18,000 ft AGL late today through midnight tonight as upper
level perturbations emanating from the developing storm system over
N Mexico track ENE toward the Carolinas. Surface winds will be light
from the NW through daybreak, then from the NW around 8-10 kts
through sundown, becoming light/variable once again tonight.

Looking beyond 06z Sun: Mid clouds will continue to thicken and
lower late tonight, dropping to 5,000-6,000 ft AGL by early Sunday,
with light rain spreading in during the day Sunday from the SW as
the upper level disturbances break down the mid level ridge.
Confidence is high that conditions will deteriorate further to IFR
Sunday evening/night and remain poor at IFR or LIFR into early
Monday with periods of rain, particularly south. Some improvement to
MVFR or even briefly VFR on Monday, but should quickly drop again to
IFR/LIFR Monday night into Tuesday evening with rain areawide. Rain
should taper off Tuesday night but IFR/LIFR conditions may hold
through daybreak Wednesday, followed by improvement to VFR by midday
Wednesday. The potential for low level wind shear will remain a
concern, especially Sunday night and again on Tuesday. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Franklin/Ellis
AVIATION...Hartfield


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