Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 020504
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
105 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 852 PM TUESDAY...

THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT EVEN THE HIGH THIN CIRRUS
WERE THINNING MORE AND DISSIPATING. NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED
AREAS OF CIRRUS WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINED OVER THE PIEDMONT. DEW POINTS WERE UP CONSIDERABLY INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTH PIEDMONT
WHERE SOME UPPER 60S RESIDED. TEMPERATURES AT 900 PM RANGED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAIR SKIES UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE... AND THE HIGH DEW POINTS WILL BE THE GROUND FOG
POTENTIAL. CERTAINLY THE HOT SUN THIS AFTERNOON DID SOME EVAPORATION
FROM THE RAIN FROM MONDAY ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.35. HOWEVER...
THERE WAS STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL TOP SOIL MOISTURE TO GO AROUND IN
70 PERCENT OF THE AREA. THEREFORE... SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
LIKELY... BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOWS
GENERALLY 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT YIELDS 68-74.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

THE LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND DROP TO
THE SE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT. THE NAM DEPICTS
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RISING TO AROUND 25
KTS LATE WED AFTERNOON... NOT GREAT BUT BETTER THAN WE`RE LIKELY TO
SEE AT OTHER TIMES THIS WEEK... ALTHOUGH THE NAM MAY BE A TAD TOO
HIGH WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. WITH AN OVERALL WEAK WIND FIELD...
LACK OF HIGH-LEVEL FORCING FEATURES... BARELY-NEAR-NORMAL PW... AND
VERY LITTLE NEAR-SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE... DON`T EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE DPVA ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE`S
PASSAGE. FOLLOWING THE TIMING AMONG THE NAM/GFS/SREF/NCAR ENSEMBLE
OUTPUT... WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE FAR NW CWA AFTER
18Z... SPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT AFTER 21Z AND
INCREASING TO 20-30%... THEN PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING... BEFORE ENDING AS MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE FAR SE CWA LATE WED NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE SUBSIDENT
AREA POST-WAVE ON THU... WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR AXIS STRETCHED
OVER THE SRN NC BORDER AREA... SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
COVERAGE AT MOST. THICKNESSES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
SUGGESTING HIGHS AROUND 90 TO 95 BOTH DAYS... IN LINE WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. LOWS WED NIGHT NEAR 70 TO THE LOWER 70S. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A GENERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE LONG
TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FEATURES THAT WILL HELP
DRIVE SOME OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER BUT IN GENERAL A LONG TERM
FORECAST WROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY.

AFTER THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF FACTORS SUPPORTING THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION OVER NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREFER THE EURO SOLUTION KEEPING
US DRY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING...PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
90S AND LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES. FOR THE WEEKEND...TEMPS WILL DROP TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 105 AM WEDNESDAY...

POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-
11Z ACROSS MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN...EASTERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS
OF CENTRAL NC. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH
MAY DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH. THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SPARKED BY A SEWD MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL
CROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR AT ANY ONE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL MENTION VICINITY
SHOWER IN THE TRIAD TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...AND NEAR KRDU AND
KRWI EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUGGEST MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO...COULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FEATURE MAY CAUSE UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO LINGER INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS



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