Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KRAH 262007
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...

LATEST SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING
CENTRAL NC...RESULTING IN CONTINUED TRANQUIL WEATHER. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...LEADING TO ANOTHER GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AS SKIES STAY CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME
NEARLY CALM. MOSTLY LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED (WITH MAYBE A FEW UPPER
20S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCALES).

THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIP OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS WILL UNDERGO FURTHER MODIFICATION AS RETURN FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST (WHERE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
FIRST TO ARRIVE) AND INTO THE LOW/MID 60S FURTHER SOUTHEAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC REGION. LEAD DISTURBANCE PROJECTED TO
ADVANCE TOWARD OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...AIDING IN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. SFC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALIGNED
WSW-ENE ACROSS CENTRAL NC...MAINTAINING A DRY AIR PRESENCE. LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ANEMIC DURING THIS PERIOD SO APPEARS LIFT
GENERATED ALOFT FROM WAA. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE WEST. INITIAL PATCHES OF RAIN WILL GO TO MOISTEN THE
SUB CLOUD LAYER. THUS...BEST SHOT OF MEASURABLE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN-SOUTHERN PIEDMONT.

SUNDAY...ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ADEQUATELY MOIST TO MAINTAIN
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. LEAD PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO CROSS JUST
WEST-NW OF OUR REGION IN THE MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES WITH RAIN
COVERAGE DECREASING TO THE SE. WILL TREND POPS FROM LIKELY NW THIRD
TO CHANCE FAR SE. BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN SPOTTY
PRECIP AT THIS TIME WITH CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY
DEPENDENT ON AREAL EXTENT OF RAIN OR SHOWERS. FAVOR BLEND OF MOS
GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S NW TO LOW-MID 60S SE). MORE EXTENSIVE/LONGER
DURATION RAIN WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS BY 3-4 DEGREES.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GAINED SOME CONSENSUS ON A
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED PERTURBATION AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE TO
AFFECT OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN
LIFTING MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE FROM A 140+ UPPER JET LIFTING NWD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...PLACING CENTRAL NC IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THIS MAY LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OVER THE PIEDMONT. PLAN TO TREND POPS
FROM CHANCE IN THE EVENING TO HIGH LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE MID 40S NW TO LOWER 50S SE.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 222 AM FRIDAY...

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...RECENT MODELS RUNS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER...WITH THE SYNOP PATTERN NOW FEATURING FLOW THAT`S
MORE WESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...AND DRIER...THANKS TO THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS INVOF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS.

REGARDING TEMPS DURING THIS TIME...FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES
ARE PROGGED TO DROP NEARLY 90M FROM THEIR PEAK AROUND 1375M JUST
BEFORE FROPA SUNDAY EVENING...TO AROUND 1285M BY EARLY THURSDAY...A
SOMEWHAT GRADUAL PROCESS AS A 1055MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
EARLY MONDAY MOVES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EASTWARD
DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS GRADUALLY LOWER EACH
DAY...FROM HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...TO HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 BY MID-WEEK. LOW TEMPS WILL FOLLOW A
SIMILAR TREND...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT...FALLING BACK
CLOSER TO NORMAL (LOWER 30S) BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING PREDOMINATELY SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY (BUT STILL
LIGHT). SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR BEFORE MID/UPPER CLOUDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...EXPECT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...NP
AVIATION...KRD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.