Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 262355
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
655 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NORTH OF NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 257 PM MONDAY...

...CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING...
...BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE... MAINLY NE OF RDU WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT... WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

EXPLOSIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT WAS WELL UNDERWAY JUST OFF TO THE NE OF
THE CAPE HATTERAS SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
OVER OUR REGION SHIFTS EAST. FOR OUR REGION... THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH...
WHICH WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME
SCATTERED BUT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
CENTRAL NC WELL INTO THE EVENING. QPF WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT
(MAINLY ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO) IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WILL BE SLOW
TO COOL AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DELAY ANY POSSIBILITY OF THE POTENTIAL SNOW
FLAKE (WELL... O.K. MAYBE A SNOW FLURRY) UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE EAST. BEST TIMING TO SEE A FLURRY WOULD BE 300 AM TO MID
MORNING... AND NE OF RDU. THE WEST SHOULD DRY BEFORE ANY CHANCE OF A
FLURRY.

THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH COOLING
FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER DARK IN
THE NW PIEDMONT... THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD REACHING THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT AROUND MIDNIGHT... THEN THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE
TONIGHT. THAT SAID... THE COLD AIR IS CHASING THE MOISTURE AND THIS
IS NOT AT SET UP AT ALL FOR ANY TYPE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. BY THE
TIME THE ATMOSPHERE COOLS ENOUGH FOR A SNOW FLAKE... THE BOUNDARY
AND NEAR SURFACE LAYERS WILL STILL BE TOO WARM. THEN... AFTER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH... THE GROUND IS STILL WARM... ETC.

WE WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING... ENDING FROM
THE WEST OVER THE PIEDMONT BEFORE MIDNIGHT - PARTIAL CLEARING THERE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...
BECOMING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NE. NO
ACCUMULATION. LOWS 27 NW TO 30 AROUND RDU AND 35 FROM FAY TO RWI.

THERE MAY BE A LINGERING SNOW FLURRY OR SHOWER MAINLY NORTH AND EAST
OF RDU THROUGH LATE MORNING... THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER... THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
INFLUENCE ON MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL OUT TO
THE NE. THE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY NE TO MOSTLY SUNNY SW
AND WEST WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 40S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 MPH WILL PRODUCE A CHILLY WIND CHILL IN THE
20S AND 30S THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE NEW ENGLAND NOR`EASTER AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE /SFC HIGH/ BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
(WED) AND CAROLINAS (WED NIGHT). EXPECT HIGHS 40-45F...COOLEST NE
COASTAL PLAIN. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MID 20S WED NIGHT...THOUGH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN NW FLOW ALOFT AND SCATTERED TO
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLY BY SUNRISE...ESP N/NW
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IF UPPER LEVEL CEILINGS ARRIVE EARLY AND/OR
THICK ENOUGH...LOWS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WOULD
OTHERWISE BE THE CASE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR IN ORDER FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...ESP WITH THE STRONGEST DPVA PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
GIVEN THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BE BRIEF/WEAK AND LARGELY CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PRESENCE OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 33-38F RANGE...COOLEST NW
AND WARMEST SE.

FRI-SAT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
PERSIST FRI/SAT...IN ASSOC/W COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...
AND IN ASSOC/W NEUTRAL ADVECTION...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD...AND A COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS ON SAT.

SUN-MON: SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY (BEYOND THE TYPICAL) PERSISTS WITH
REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
DETAILS CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED AT THIS TIME (BEYOND GUESSING). IN
GENERAL...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE /ATTENDANT LOW/ PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
EASTERN US...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
LATE MON/MON NIGHT. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM MONDAY...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WHILE
THIS TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS (MAYBE EVEN A FLURRY) WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE IN. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY TUESDAY
MORNING...LASTLY OVER THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY WINDS
MAY BE SOMEWHAT GUSTY ON TUESDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE
EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KRD



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