Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 290115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
915 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Surface cold front will cross the area this evening. Weak high
pressure will follow the front for tonight and Wednesday. Another
storm system approach our area Thursday night and Friday, bringing
another round of stormy weather.


As of 915 PM Tuesday...

Last bit of convection has exited the SE zones over the past hour,
in concert with the exiting upper level trough and attendant deeper
moisture moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface, lead sfc
front/trough has pushed east into the area, most distinguishable by
the drier/lower sfc dewpoints that have advected into the NC
Piedmont and Sandhills. However, it will be with a secondary NELY
surge behind a back-door cold front late tonight between 06 to 12z
that will bring the noticeably cooler air into the area. NAM fcst
soundings and HRRR depict  a layer of low-level moisture stratus
advect into the area within the low-level NELY flow.

Will increase cloud cover the north and northeast. Lows tonight
in the lower to mid 50s.


As of 335 PM Tuesday...

Wed-Wed Night: With shortwave ridging aloft, expect mostly sunny to
partly cloudy skies and above normal temps in the mid/upper 70s Wed
afternoon. Subsidence in the wake of an upper level low moving
offshore New England Wed evening will result in pressure rises along
the eastern seaboard as an inverted sfc ridge extends southward
through the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the leading edge of
which will be marked by a backdoor cold frontal passage /wind shift
to the NE at ~15 mph/. Lows Wed night will be determined by the
precise timing of fropa. Based on the latest guidance, expect temps
ranging from the mid 40s NE Coastal Plain to lower 50s in the SW

Thu: In the wake of the backdoor cold front, NE low-level flow will
veer to the E/ESE during the day, allowing temperatures to recover
into the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s across the Sandhills and SE
Coastal Plain Thu afternoon. A cold air damming wedge is expected to
develop across portions of the Foothills and N/NW Piedmont as warm
advection (via SW H85 flow) strengthens atop the shallow cooler
airmass in place near the surface. As a result, broken/overcast
cloud cover should largely offset diurnal heating across portions of
the N/NW Piedmont where highs may struggle to exceed the mid 50s,
esp in Forsyth county. -Vincent


As of 335 PM Tuesday...

Thu night: Expect an increasing potential for elevated showers
across the western half of the state (west of Highway 1, primarily
the NW Piedmont) between midnight and sunrise Fri as an upper level
low progresses across the central MS river valley into the western
TN valley and low-level warm advection strengthens downstream over
the Carolinas. Expect lows Fri morning ranging from the mid/upper
40s (N/NE) to lower 50s, warmest Sandhills and SW Piedmont.

Fri-Fri Night: Uncertainty in the evolution of the approaching upper
level low and attendant sfc cyclone has decreased over the past 24
hours now that the ECMWF is in much closer agreement to the GFS,
however, confidence in temperatures, precip amounts and convective
intensity remains relatively low due to the expected presence of a
CAD wedge and potential for upstream convection /latent heat
release/ to alter low-level height/wind fields over the
Southeast/Carolinas. Although precip amounts remain uncertain,
precipitation chances Friday/Friday night remain solid. As such,
have increased pops to categorical (~80%). A potential for organized
severe thunderstorms will exist Friday afternoon and evening given
the synoptic pattern progged by the GFS/ECMWF, however, the overall
extent/character of the threat remains difficult to ascertain at
this range, as do forecast temperatures for Fri/Fri night. With the
most recent guidance in mind, will indicate highs ranging from the
lower 60s in the Triad to the lower/mid 70s in the Sandhills/SE
Coastal Plain. A clearing trend from SW-NE is expected in the wake
of a cold frontal passage after midnight. Lows Sat morning will
depend primarily upon fropa timing, ranging from the lower 50s N/NW
to mid 50s S/SE.

Sat-Sun night: A potential for isold showers may surface Saturday
afternoon east of Hwy 1 if DPVA attendant shortwave energy digging
SE along the western periphery of the departing upper level low
occurs in vicinity of peak heating. Otherwise, expect dry conditions
and a warming trend over the weekend as a shortwave ridge builds
east across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Expect highs in the
lower/mid 70s Sat and mid 70s Sunday as a shortwave ridge aloft
tracks across the region from the west.

Mon-Tue Night: Expect increasing cloud cover during the day Monday
and a chance for convection by Tue as the next upper level low
/attendant sfc cyclone/ approach from the west. -Vincent


As of 815 PM Tuesday...

24 Hour TAF Period: The initial surface cold front has pushed to the
south of central NC this evening, along with any convection and sub-
VFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected to continue this evening
into early Wednesday morning as surface high pressure builds/extends
into the area. However, a reinforcing back-door cold front is
expected sink southward into central NC close to daybreak Wednesday.
This will usher in the potential for some IFR/MVFR cigs from around
daybreak through around noon (before lifting and/or scattering).
KRWI stands the best chance of seeing any sub-VFR cigs as moisture
in northeasterly low level flow is expected to surge into the
northeast/eastern portions of central NC early Wednesday morning.
Otherwise, generally light northwesterly winds tonight will become
north to northeasterly on Wednesday generally in the 7 to 12 mph
range, with possibly a few gusts into the mid teens.

Outlook: With surface high pressure building/extending into the area
Wednesday night into Thursday in advance of yet another approaching
area of low pressure, we may see the development of some sub-VFR cigs
early Thursday morning, possibly continuing into Thursday as a CAD
wedge develops. A low pressure system will cross the area on Friday
through Friday night with the potential for showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure with VFR conditions should
generally return for the weekend.





SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
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