Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221956
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
256 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The main fcst concern is convective chances tonight and Wednesday.

A shortwave will move southeast through the Midwest, skirting
northeast of the region, but weakening the eastern extension of an
upper level ridge that is in place right now. 12Z raobs from Topeka
and Springfield, MO while very unstable, were a bit capped as
well. Will need to watch to see if convergence and sfc heating can
break the cap as far west as northern mo and ne ks toward 5-7 pm.

A wide variety of mesoscale and global model guidance exists. Some
guidance develops storms late this afternoon along a sfc front
from northeast KS east into MO. Corfidi vectors would take this area
of storms south, maybe even a bit west of south this evening. The
12z wrf-nmm is very aggressive with scenario. Given the
strong instability and progged high sfc-600mb theta-e
differentials (close to 30 deg C), if the storms do develop there
will be a severe storm wind risk. Will continue to highlight the
northern cwfa as having the best overall chance for severe storms.
As far as pops, will probably have the highest chances over the
northeastern cwfa where weaker capping exists.

Wednesday/Wednesday night: Tough call based on what happens with
convection late today and tonight. In general will have a synoptic
sfc front dropping south into the area and will keep chances for
showers/storm going Wednesday. Cooler air will filter in from the
north and northeast Wednesday night.

Heat advisory: Based on the current fcst, do not see a need to
extend the ongoing heat advisory for our western counties past
today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

We should see a bit of a cool down for Thursday behind the front,
particularly over the eastern cwfa as high pressure moves into
Missouri and the Midwest. The eastern extension of the western
U.S. ridge reasserts itself with warmer temperatures again Fri and
Sat. Another shortwave is expected to open up and move southeast
into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by Sunday pushing another
cold front into the area with chances for thunderstorms. Cool and
dry weather is then expected Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the afternoon
and into the evening hours tonight with a light south-southwest
wind. Concern then turns to convective potential late tonight as
cold front approaches the area from the north. Various MESO-models
indicating at least scattered storms ahead of the boundary after
06z. Confidence that any of these storms will impact the terminal
sites not high enough yet to include more than a prob30 group. If
storms do impact the terminals, gusty winds and a drop to MVFR or
IFR conditions will be possible. winds look to switch to a more
northerly direction around 12Z as front slowly sags across the
terminal sites, but speeds will remain below 12 knots outside of
storms.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-066-067-077-
     078.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Raberding







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