Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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292
FXUS63 KSGF 162306
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
606 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

There will be two different areas of focus for thunderstorm
activity into this evening. A remnant outflow boundary which
extends from Vienna to Fort Leonard Wood to Nixa to just south of
Joplin will continue to kick up scattered to numerous storms into
this evening. Storm development will be aided by a broad and
persistent low level jet.

A second area of thunderstorm development will take place across
central Kansas along a synoptic cold front. This activity will
rapidly develop over the next few hours in a highly unstable
environment. Synoptic scale lift along the front and ahead of an
approaching short wave trough in combination with large theta-e
differences between the surface and 3 km agl will favor quick
upscale growth into line segments and eventually a large line of
storms.

This line of storms will then move southeast into southeastern
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks later this evening. While
instability will be lower across southeastern Kansas and western
Missouri, there is a good likelihood that this line will contain
a fairly vigorous cold pool. There will therefore be the potential
for damaging winds across portions of southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri this evening. The line will then slowly weaken as
it moves southeast across the Missouri Ozarks later tonight.
Expectations are that the line will move out of south-central
Missouri early Thursday morning.

We will also continue to monitor the threat for flash flooding
tonight. Precipitable water values remain around 2.00". The
potential for training storms will persist along that outflow
boundary. Storms along the synoptic front will be more
progressive, but may still result in another round of heavy
rainfall. The going Flash Flood Watch will therefore be left
intact.

Skies will then clear from west to east across the area
on Thursday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. High
temperatures over most areas should be in the middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Once the surface front moves through, surface high pressure moves
in and clears everything out. As we move into the weekend, an
upper level ridge begins to build back into the intermountain
west. This will bring temperatures back up to more seasonal
levels. Combined with an increase in moisture, heat index values
this weekend will climb into the low to mid 90s with values
approaching the mid to upper 90s along and west of Interstate 49.
A weak impulse moves through the area on Saturday bringing a least
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day.

As for the eclipse day...skies look to be partly cloudy with the
chances for rain increasing to about 20-30% by the afternoon. An
upper level wave will transit the Northern Plains on Tuesday and
Wednesday which will allow a surface front to once again approach
the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase from
Tuesday through the end of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

All 3 of the TAF sites are in between areas of convection as of
23z and the onset of the 00z TAFS. The main show will be with the
convection, now starting to become linear over west central MO
into extreme southeast Kansas. Convective models are showing the
linear convection beginning to shift southeast this evening,
eventually pushing through JLN/SGF/BBG from mid evening into
around 1-2 AM for BBG. Will see VFR conditions outside of
convection and MVFR to brief IFR within the stronger convection as
it pushes through tonight. Eventually a front will follow behind
the convection, shifting the winds to the northwest towards
daybreak.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ066>068-
     077>080-088>091-093>095-101>103.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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