Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 291149

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
649 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Early this morning surface boundary extends from southwest Oklahoma
into northern Arkansas and far southeast Missouri. Low level jet had
increased across the Plains with showers over western Oklahoma into
south central Kansas and another area in southern Oklahoma.
Isentropic lift to the north of the boundary will strengthen and
overspread the region this morning as upper low begins to shift into
western Kansas later today. Expect rain to spread northward across
the area this morning and then continue into tonight, with some
heavier pockets of rain possible tonight. Surface boundary will
remain south of the region today and then begin lifting northward
tonight. Models are indicating an increasing trend in elevated
instability tonight from south to north and as the front lifts
northward cannot rule out some stronger storms across the south
with the main threat being hail. SPC day 1 did push the Marginal
Risk area northward into our area based on this scenario.

With the clouds and rain, temperatures will be somewhat tricky with
the warmer readings today likely over central Missouri where it will
remain rain free the longest, but still cooler than the last few
days with highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Models offering a slightly better consensus for Saturday with warm
front lifting northward through the Ozarks. Best juxtaposition of
instabilities and wind shear will reside across the eastern
Ozarks, with both being sufficient for some strong to severe
storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Upper trough then
opens as it translates into Illinois late Saturday night and
Sunday. With its proximity to the area and weak troughing across
central and northern Missouri some lingering low probabilities of
mainly showers will persist into Sunday.

The remainder of the period from Monday through Thursday looks
relative quiet with surface high pressure and a general northwest
flow aloft. This will keep temperatures on the cool side with highs
generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s to around 50 Monday and
Tuesday and then warming back to near normal by Wednesday and
Thursday. There is no strong signal for any widespread rain or
thunderstorms at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: An area of rain with some embedded
thunder will move northeast into the region over the next couple
of hours. Expecting vfr ceilings for the most part early despite
the rain. However, as a warm front moves northward ceilings should
lower with most guidance gradually lowering into the mvfr after
18z then into ifr cat after 00z. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage over the last half of the taf period but
cannot be too precise with the timing just yet.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...DSA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.