Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 301747

1247 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Update to Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

Another beautiful early morning underway across the region; quite
similar to the past several mornings with a mainly clear sky,
light winds and temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s.

Today will likely be a carbon copy of yesterday. Very little
change in the airmass across the region will result in a
persistence forecast of mainly clear skies and high temperatures
in the middle 80s.

Heading into tonight, will be watching convection developing
across the Plains associated with a rather large upper level storm
system over the Rockies. A shortwave will lift north/northeast
into the northern Plains with time tonight and spark an area of
showers and storms from Kansas into the Upper Midwest. It looks
like this activity will attempt to move into northwestern portions
of the outlook area toward daybreak Wednesday. As a result have
introduced low end chances for a few showers and storms across
extreme southeastern Kansas and west central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The weather patten will become rather active Wednesday through
Thursday night. The 00Z suite of model output has come in a tad
slower with the overall evolution of the pattern. As a result,
better rain chances for Wednesday and Wednesday night have been
shunted a bit to the north. Still enough uncertainty to carry
solid chance PoPs, but it does not look like a washout for
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Heading into Thursday and Thursday night, the main brunt of this
storm system will slide through the region. Have increased PoPs to
high likely for the entire area. The biggest question forecast-
wise centers on our potential for severe storms. With the slightly
slower timing of this system, it will arrive during the favorable
peak heating time frame. General model consensus suggests around
1500 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE along with deep layer shear around
40kt (give or take). A weak cap is advertised by short range
guidance, however our area will be positioned in the right
entrance region of a modest upper level jet. This could allow
convection to fire earlier than anticipated and result in lower
CAPE values. Regardless, deep layer shear oriented nearly parallel
to the surface front will result in a linear mode with damaging
winds the main concern.

The front will clear the area by Friday morning and a much cooler
and drier airmass will filter into the region. Raw model dewpoints
dip into the 30s Friday night, which gives pause for an outside
shot at light frost potential. Confidence isn`t high at this
point, though it will be something to watch for in future
forecasts. After several days of above average temperatures, next
weekend into early next week will feature below average


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS...VFR conditions are expected
at the TAF sites this afternoon through Wednesday morning.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will continue to develop this
afternoon and will dissipate around sun set this evening. Winds
will be out of the south this afternoon and will become more
southeasterly this evening and overnight. Winds will then pickup
and be gusty out of the south by mid morning Wednesday.

Storms will develop across Kansas into northern Missouri tonight
into Wednesday morning. This activity is expected to remain west
and north of the area through the TAF period.




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