Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 231720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1220 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...18z Aviation Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

The Ozarks was positioned between the residual circulation of
Tropical Storm Cindy and an approaching frontal boundary to the
northwest. Other than a couple of sprinkles in Oregon County, most
of the Ozarks Region remained dry overnight. Temperatures were
generally in the 70s within high humidity.

For today, the cold front will surge across the region bringing
showers and thunderstorms. There is an instability - shear
combination in southwest Missouri for a marginal risk for
organized thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
risk with the strongest storms. The window for severe storms will
occur between noon and 3pm. Otherwise the severe threat will shift
into Arkansas during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

Beyond this evening, the forecast appears to be quiet for the next
several days. Northwest flow will set up across the nations
midsection, bringing a dry continental airmass to the Ozarks. This
will keep Gulf moisture at bay, as temperatures stay cooler than
normal for late June.

The next signal for rain chances occurs Monday morning as a weak
baroclinic zone sets up across southwest Missouri. We could see
some weak convection along this feature through Monday.

We finally get into some zonal flow Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Weak shortwave troughs pass through the area, possibly sparking
off a few showers.

There are no indications of a summertime high pressure system
to build over the Ozarks anytime soon. Therefore temperatures in
the 80s and lower 90s are expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

MVFR to brief IFR conditions can be expected early this afternoon
from 18z to about 19z or 20z from scattered convection moving
through the area. A front will clear through the area late this
afternoon. Winds will be gusty from the north this afternoon up to
20 knots possible. Winds will remain light and northerly tonight
into tomorrow morning. Skies will clear and VFR conditions will
move in by this evening through tomorrow night.




LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.