Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 132044
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
244 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...A Light Wintry Mix Late Tonight into Early on Sunday...Much
Warmer Weather Returns Next Week...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 0217 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Cold and dry air has invaded much of the Missouri Ozarks region this
afternoon. There are some areas across central Missouri that has
barely reached 20 degrees. The main story for tonight into early
tomorrow will be the threat of a light wintry mix and freezing
drizzle. The latest Hi-Res forecast models all indicate very light
precip to begin to develop between midnight and 3 am across
western and southern Missouri. The latest RUC and HRRR even shows
some convective like precip which indicates pockets of sleet possible.

The overall message for late tonight into tomorrow morning is we
are expecting only very light amounts of a light wintry mix but
could be impacts on roads and travel in the morning. Ground and
road temperatures have had time to cool down over the past 24
hours. The freezing line will settle somewhere near the Missouri
and Kansas border tonight before it begins to retreat eastward
during the morning hours. There will be very light precip falling
across the Missouri Ozarks with the better potential for higher
amounts across the eastern Ozarks. Freezing drizzle and some light
sleet is expected across the western half of the area and a wintry
mix with some light snow is expected across the eastern half of
the area early on. This will slowly transition to just a cold
light rain or drizzle late tomorrow morning into the early
afternoon from west to east.

We will issue a winter weather advisory for light amounts and
possible travel impacts in the morning. Like what we saw a few
weeks ago...it does not take much freezing drizzle to cause big
travel problems in the Ozarks region. All areas in the advisory
area can expect a very light glaze of ice possible. A dusting of
light sleet or light snow can be expected east of Highway 65 with
up to an inch of snow possible from the Highway 63 corridor and
eastward. Most area will warm up above freezing by Sunday
afternoon with some areas out across far western Missouri near 50.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 0217 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

There may be some fog developing late Sunday night into Monday
morning. This will need to be watched because temperatures again
may be around or slightly below freezing. The best potential for
fog will be along and south of the I-44 corridor across southern
Missouri.

Milder temperatures return on Monday. A quick moving upper level
system across the Midwest on Tuesday may bring a few more clouds
and a slight chance of showers across central Missouri and the
eastern Ozarks. Decent upper Level ridging will develop across
the central U.S. for the middle and end of next week. This will
allow for way above average temperatures for the region. Highs
will be in the 60s and possible lower 70s. A preview of Spring is
coming next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

An upper level disturbance will slide southeast across the region
from late tonight into Sunday. This system will bring a variety of
aviation impacts.

Ceilings will lower starting late tonight with MVFR expected
during the predawn hours. We are also expecting a light wintry mix
of precipitation to develop late tonight, however precipitation
onset time remains in question due to a very dry airmass which is
currently in place. We have therefore handled this uncertainty
with TEMPO groups.

Low level wind shear conditions are also expected from late
tonight into early Sunday morning.

By sunrise, precipitation should be ongoing over most areas with
freezing drizzle being the main precipitation type. Precipitation
will begin to diminish around Joplin and then Springfield by late
morning with temperatures warming to around the freezing mark by
midday. Ceilings will remain in the MVFR category.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Sunday for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann


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