Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 211141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
541 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The storm system that has been advertised the past several days
is making its way eastward across the plains early this morning.
The warm front that moved through the area has pushed well north
of the Ozarks as noted by the breezy southerly winds, rather warm
temperatures in the 50s and increased moisture. While the moisture
so far remain fairly shallow, the continuing warm air and moisture
advection today will work to moisten up much of the column across
the region by this evening and tonight.

The southerly winds will allow for another unseasonable warm day
across the Ozarks with highs in the middle to upper 60s.
Additionally, winds may gust at times between 25 and 35 mph this
afternoon before tapering off just slightly this evening as a cold
front and the storm system approach the region.

Models have maintained the potential for thunderstorm development
this evening and overnight as the front moves east into the
Ozarks. Shear continues to me more than ample across the area,
what had been lacking was instability. The latest run of the NAM
however has seen in increase in the range of 500 to 900 J/KG in
advance of the front. This has prompted SPC to put all of the
Ozarks in a marginal risk for strong to severe storms.

The increase in stability would most likely allow for some
scattered strong to severe storm development, the primary concern
of which would be damaging straight line winds. Depending on the
strength of the updrafts, hail to quarters in size may be
possible. Additionally, with the combination of the shear expected
along with the increased instability potential, a QLCS tornado
may occur if the line of storms can orient itself properly.

We will monitor this through the day and this evening as the
severe potential will be heavily dependent of the amount of
instability that can be realized.

Behind the front, temperatures will drop into the upper 30s. Drier
air will try and work its way into the area along with the cooler

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 217 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Winds will remain gusty through the day Monday as the upper low
makes its way across northern Missouri through the day. Light rain
or showers will be possible as the wrap around moisture slides
along with the low. As temperatures fall, some snow may mix with
the rain across portions of central Missouri Monday night. No snow
accumulations are anticipated.

The region will then see high pressure and upper level
northwesterly flow return through Tuesday before and upper level
ridge slides over the area Thursday night into Friday. This will
bring cooler temperatures Tuesday with a warming trend through
the end of the week.

The upper ridge will allow for the return of southerly surface
winds Friday afternoon and the areas next chance for rain and
potentially storms Friday night into Saturday. Another shot of
cooler weather then returns behind this system next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Gusty surface winds ahead of a frontal system today will remain
southerly. Showers and storms will impact the region this
afternoon and evening. Ceilings and visibilities will fall to MVFR
during the afternoon in advance of the front. Localized IFR will
be possible if storms move over area terminals.

Flight conditions will improve to VFR after 05 to 06z once the
front moves through. Winds will begin to shift out of the west
with northwest winds expected by Monday afternoon.




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