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000
FXUS64 KSHV 251204
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
704 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/12Z TAFS...A BIT OF PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY REDUCING VSBYS
AT A FEW TERMINALS THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BE
DOMINANT AREA WIDE FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
S/SE WITH TIME AS SPEEDS AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS. CU FIELD TO DEVELOP
FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD AND THEN SKIES CLEARING AFTER SUNSET
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TO END THE 12Z TAF CYCLE.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET DAY IN STORE TODAY AND REALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE TX/OK PNHDL. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT AS HOT AS WE COULD BE IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENTS. WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT WE SHOULD SEE
ENOUGH MIXING DOWN OF DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOONS SUCH THAT
HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW HEAT INDEX CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES. WARMEST DAY HEAT WISE APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
COME CLOSE TO CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AS A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
CARVES ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
HELP TO DRIVE A RARE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL RAMP UP WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THEN WE WILL WATCH FOR POST FRONTAL RAINS
EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVES COMING AT US FROM THE PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  93  71  95  73  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  71  95  72  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  93  72  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  93  70  95  73  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  74  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  95  74  95  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  96  74  97 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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