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000
FXUS64 KSHV 240258
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
958 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO RETURN GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. ALSO INCREASED THE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN
ZONES FOR PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER FOR
PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
THE EAST AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. WARM FRONT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY ON
THURSDAY. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 24/00Z TAFS...CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING SO EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT LATER THIS
EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS FILL
IN THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NWRD BY MID
MORNING AND PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AT OUR E TX TERMINALS THROUGH LATE
MORNING. IN ADDITION...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO MOVE
IN SO MLU/ELD MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW HOURS OF REDUCED VSBYS. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO MOVE IN DURING THE DAY WITH SOME
SPOTTY SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO BETWEEN 12-18 KTS AFTER 24/15Z
WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
RETURNING CU FIELD ON VIS SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON IS A SIGN THAT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS WELL UNDERWAY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WE AWAIT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO MOVE THIS WAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS TROUGH
WILL DIG A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY AND BY THURSDAY EVENING...WILL EVEN TAKE ON A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT INTO AR. WE SHOULD STAY CAPPED THROUGH AT LEAST PART
OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT FRONTAL FORCING AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE CAP BEING BROKEN WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR BUT BULK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 40KTS AND GIVEN MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5-8.0 DEG, HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT THE LATER HALF OF THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/N LA THU
NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. WE`RE BACK IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH
SHOULD CUTOFF IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SLOW ITS PROGRESS
INTO THE PLAINS FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH ITSELF AND
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NECESSITY OF
BUMPING POPS UPWARDS TO LIKELY CATEGORY SUNDAY IN OUR EXTREME NW
ZONES AND AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME DISCREPANCY ON JUST HOW FAR
EAST THE DRYLINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF N TX/OK BEFORE THE FRONT CATCHES IT
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ONGOING FOR
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NW ZONES AND AREAWIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAYS
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON JUST WHAT KIND OF EASTWARD PROGRESS THE FRONT MAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALL BE PROBABLE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY GIVEN A MUCH STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WIND AND DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILE COMPARED TO OUR RISK
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SLOW MOVING
TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS. THUS...EXPECTING MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  63  83  58  84  62 /  10  40  20  10  10
MLU  56  83  59  84  60 /  10  40  30  10  10
DEQ  58  77  45  81  54 /  10  40  10  10  10
TXK  62  79  52  82  59 /  10  40  10  10  10
ELD  56  83  52  82  56 /  10  40  30  10  10
TYR  64  80  56  84  64 /  10  30  10  10  10
GGG  63  81  54  85  62 /  10  30  10  10  10
LFK  63  84  62  86  65 /  10  30  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06