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350
FXUS64 KSHV 221202 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
702 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.AVIATION...
An MCS over Ncntrl LA/Deep E TX will continue to quickly shift E
out of the region this morning, with consistent 30-40kt winds
possible along the leading edge, affecting the MLU terminal
between 12-13Z. Areas of MVFR cigs may redevelop this morning even
in wake of the leading edge of convection, but overall, 7-10kft
cigs will linger for much of the morning before additional MVFR
cigs develop in wake of a cold fropa that will quickly shift SE
through the region this morning. The post-frontal -RA will
diminish from W to E by 18Z across E TX/SW AR/Wrn LA, but could
linger across Ncntrl LA/Scntrl AR through mid-afternoon before
ending. However, little in the way of vsbys restrictions are
expected. Should finally begin to see the post-frontal cigs clear
from W to E across E TX by mid to late afternoon, and across SW
AR/Wrn LA by mid to late evening. However, MVFR cigs may linger
across the MLU terminal through the remainder of the 12Z TAF
period before clearing. NNW winds 8-12kts today, with localized gusts
to 20kts across E TX, will diminish to around 5kts after 00Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Our well-advertised cold front with accompanying squall line of
thunderstorms continues to make its way through the heart of the
region early this morning with occasional wind gusts of 40 mph or
higher. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch does remain in effect through
7 AM for counties mainly along the I-30 corridor and have already
dropped a few counties north of the corridor. The general trend
over the last few hours has been some slight weakening of the line
as it relates to wind gusts with sub-severe speeds noted thus far.
However, still can`t rule out some rogue gusts that could down a
few trees so will continue to keep the Watch going for now and
will re-evaluate again prior to the current expiration time. The
positive news, of course, is the beneficial rain falling with this
convection. Widespread rainfall amounts of near an inch or higher
still look likely even as the line of convection weakens further
with southeastward progress later this morning. Convection will
wrap up from northwest to southeast throughout today as the front
advances through the remainder of the region and should clear
nearly all of the CWA with the exception of our far eastern zones
where a few lingering showers may still reside early this evening.
Cooler and drier air will spill southward in wake of the front as
clearing skies will allow for temperatures to drop off quickly
over much of the region by Monday morning with most areas reaching
the mid to upper 40s and lower 50s.

Dry and pleasant weather will prevail for much of the upcoming
week with a dry Canadian front reinforcing this cooler air mass
on Tuesday as it quickly advances south toward the Gulf of Mexico.
This will keep temperatures running very near to just slightly
below normal through mid week before southerly winds return and
help push high temperatures back near 80 degrees on Thursday. This
warm-up will be short-lived as an even stronger cold front arrives
by Friday with showers and thunderstorms spreading across the area
once again. The air mass behind this front appears to be quite a
bit cooler than the previous ones as temperatures will drop well
below normal for next weekend. We could even awake to some frost
on the pumpkin both Saturday and Sunday morning, especially over
our northern zones where some areas may even drop near freezing as
we wrap up the last weekend in October.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  51  77  53 / 100   0   0   0
MLU  76  53  75  52 / 100  20   0   0
DEQ  71  42  77  46 /  50   0   0   0
TXK  72  47  75  49 /  70   0   0   0
ELD  72  47  75  48 / 100  10   0   0
TYR  73  48  78  51 /  70   0   0   0
GGG  74  47  77  50 /  90   0   0   0
LFK  76  48  77  52 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15/19