


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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142 FXUS64 KSHV 160616 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 116 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Mostly dry conditions will continue through at least Thursday morning, with only a stray shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon hours. - Heat Advisories remain today, expanding westward into East Texas and Southwest Arkansas. - All eyes remain hyper-focused on the tropics as there is a 40% chance of some tropical development across the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Quiet conditions expected tonight through at least Thursday morning across the Four State Region, as high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the area. However, it will be hot and humid. A Heat Advisory has been expanded to include most of the forecast area, only excluding McCurtain County (OK) and the extreme western sections of our East Texas counties. Afternoon highs today will climb into the mid to upper 90s areawide, with a couple isolated triple digit readings not out of the question. As we move into Thursday, all eyes will be on the northern Gulf. Models continue to hint at the possibility of a sfc feature developing late Wednesday night into Thursday morning just off the Florida panhandle. This low could develop some tropical features as it is expected to push westward towards the Louisiana Coast by Thursday afternoon. There isn`t consensus on where this system moves beyond Thursday, as some models bring it onshore in Louisiana, while some push it towards the Texas Gulf Coast over the weekend. Regardless, this feature should bring widespread rain chances back into the region, especially for locations south of the Interstate 30 corridor. There is some concern of locally heavy rain across our Deep East Texas and Louisiana zones, which has prompted the Weather Prediction Center to issue a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall in the aforementioned locations on Friday and Saturday. Please continue to monitor our forecast as we approach this event for up-to-date information, as Flood products could be needed. By the end of the weekend into early next week, upper ridging is expected to build in across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will result in dry, humid, and hot conditions returning back across the region. Afternoon temperatures will return into the mid to upper 90s, with some triple digit readings possible. Heat Advisories will likely be needed, as heat indices are expected to climb above 105 degrees over the most of the area. /20/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 For the 16/06Z TAFs, as high pressure builds overhead, VFR conditions will prevail for much of the forecast period. A few high clouds overnight will be the only break to mostly clear skies, with sustained winds preventing the widespread CIG/VSBY reductions which have been so common at daybreak recently, the only exception being KLFK, where BKN MVFR CIGs are possible in the morning hours. An afternoon Cu field is expected to develop, but thunderstorm development is not looking likely enough to bear mentioning at this time. Light south winds will continue through the night, becoming southwesterly into the day at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts with gusts of up to 15 kts possible. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Activation of storm spotter are not expected today through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 98 77 99 78 / 0 0 10 10 MLU 98 77 98 76 / 0 0 20 10 DEQ 95 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 97 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 96 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 95 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 96 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 96 73 97 75 / 0 0 20 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...None. TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-137-138-150>153-165>167. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...26