Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240550
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
150 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.AVIATION...

[Through 06z Sunday] Areas of IFR to LIFR conditions are once again
expected through the early morning hours with improving ceilings
and visibility by mid-morning. However, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to affect DHN and ECP later this morning, then
moving eastward and reach the ABY area later this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [810 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Mid level ridging will hold on tonight despite a cold front and
supporting mid level trough moving through the Tennessee Valley.
Showers from this afternoon will dissipate this evening with clouds
increasing overnight. Enough moisture in place and associated with
the remnants of Cindy may spark some overnight showers across our SE
AL and SW GA counties towards dawn but the chances are low. Lows
tonight will fall into the lower to middle 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Mid and upper level ridging over Bermuda will gradually weaken as a
shortwave trough swings across the upper Mississippi valley and
the Great Lakes. This trough will sweep up the remnants of Cindy
and slowly push a front through the southeast. The timing of the
frontal passage is still uncertain, but consensus shows it
stalling north of our area Saturday night and then pushing
southeastward Sunday night. Wind shear will be very weak with
this system, so widespread severe weather is not expected,
although isolated gusty winds will be possible. Highs will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s on Saturday, mid to upper 80s on Sunday.
Lows will be in the low to mid 70s Saturday night, mid 60s to low
70s as the front begins to pass through Sunday night.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Low level ridging will build over the southeast through mid-week in
the wake of the frontal passage, keeping PoPs low through Wednesday.
By Thursday, with the ridge will move to our east, which will
increase southerly flow over us. This increased low level
southerly flow later in the week will be more favorable for
seabreeze thunderstorms. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s and
lows will be mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s.


.MARINE...

Winds and waves continue to fall tonight as the pressure gradient
weakens. A frontal passage will increase chances for thunderstorms
this weekend and bring a shift to northerly winds on Sunday night.
Aside from potentially gusty winds during storms, wind speeds should
remain below 15 knots through the period.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

We received some much needed round of rainfall courtesy of Cindy
earlier this week. As a result, rises continue along the
Choctawhatchee and Pea river basins. There are no more points in
flood stage at this time, though several remain in or will rise to
action stage. Rainfall from a frontal passage this weekend is
expected to remain around an inch or less, which should not cause
widespread flooding, but may mean a slower lowering of elevated
rivers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  72  90  70  85 /  40  10  40  30  20
Panama City   85  75  85  72  84 /  40  10  30  20  20
Dothan        88  72  87  67  85 /  70  40  50  20  10
Albany        90  72  88  68  85 /  60  30  40  20  10
Valdosta      92  72  90  70  85 /  30  20  40  30  20
Cross City    90  72  90  71  87 /  20  10  30  10  40
Apalachicola  85  74  86  72  84 /  10  10  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Moore
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Moore


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