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000
FXUS62 KTAE 290818
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
418 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

After a busy Monday evening, conditions look much quieter today in
the wake of the cold front with drier air settling in over most of
the area. The front will still be north of the southeast big bend
region this morning with a few showers and thunderstorms still
possible ahead of it, but by this afternoon it should be through
even that area. High temperatures will still be seasonably warm
across the area, but much lower dewpoints will make it feel less
oppressive than in recent day.

&&


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Behind the squall line which moved through the region on Monday and
Sfc Cold Front which is pushing through today, extremely dry air for
this time of year will be building in from the NW today and tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. After a
recent string of very humid and uncomfortable nights, this dry air
will allow low temperatures to fall into the far more comfortable
lower to middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and
Wednesday night, with the potential for some record or near record
low temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or storm,
but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid to
upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period in the wake of a cold front with a drier airmass.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.

&&

.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD