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FXUS62 KTAE 022021
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
314 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

East coast sea breeze is becoming fairly active this afternoon with
limited activity in our forecast area. The latest WRF did indicate
that a robust east coast sea breeze could trigger late day
thunderstorm activity primarily across South Central Georgia and
move these storms into North Florida before dissipating. This is
currently handled in the inherited forecast for this evening, so
have made only minor changes to account for less activity than
previous expected across Southern Alabama. With little change to the
overall pattern, expect a warm and muggy night with lows generally
in the lower 70s.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Despite the presence of an Upper Level ridge over the Southeastern
U.S., there is still plenty of deep layer moisture advecting in from
the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico to keep the sea breeze circulation
convectively active through the short term period. PoPs are
expected to be about 40% across the board on Wednesday, and with
the ridge weakening and beginning to retrograde on Thursday, they
are expected to range from 30% over approximately the eastern half
of the region to 40% to the west, with a smaller area of 50% PoPs
over SE AL and NW portions of the FL Panhandle. Also, with an active
east coast sea breeze front off the Atlantic, showers and storms
could linger well into the evening hours, especially over the SE FL
Big Bend as well as the Valdosta and vicinity area on Thursday night
with a stronger easterly flow.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Very little change in thinking from yesterday`s extended fcst, as
weak Upper Level ridging will be the predominant synoptic level
forcer in this fairly stagnant pattern across the SE U.S. It will be
in a weakening and retrograding phase on Friday through the upcoming
weekend, as a trof of low pressure attempts to push southeastward
from the MS Valley region, but this trof will quickly dissipate as
well, with new ridging forming in its place for Monday and Tuesday
of next week. Despite these slight variations in ridging and
trofing, the Sfc pressure pattern should remain weak and plenty of
deep layer moisture will continue to advect into the CWA from the
Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, keeping the sea breeze circulation
quite convectively active. Both PoPs and temps should average at or
above climo levels through the period, with daytime Pops mainly in
the 30-50% range, and highs and lows from the lower to middle 90s
and lower to middle 70s respectively.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR conditions should prevail through the
period. Best chance of thunderstorms this evening should be in
vicinity of ABY/VLD. After midnight, expect light winds and mostly
clear skies. A couple of guidance members indicated patchy MVFR
vsbys for a few sites, but confidence is not high enough at this
time to include in the latest TAFs.

&&

.Marine...

A weak ridge of high pressure will remain generally to the east of
the waters through much of the period keeping the prevailing winds
light and out of the east to southeast. The weak pressure pattern
and light winds will allow the afternoon sea breeze to turn the
winds to onshore during the afternoon and evening hours on most
days.


&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels
through this week, thus no red flag concerns are expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rivers in Georgia/Alabama remain very low, with a few points
potentially reaching record low levels in the next couple of weeks
if the unusually dry conditions continue. Rivers are not quite as
low in Florida, although with any heavy rainfall remaining highly
localized this week, river flooding is not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  95  73  95  72 /  40  40  20  30  20
Panama City   76  91  77  91  77 /  30  40  20  40  20
Dothan        73  96  73  95  72 /  30  40  20  50  20
Albany        74  96  73  95  71 /  30  40  20  40  20
Valdosta      72  95  71  95  71 /  40  40  20  30  30
Cross City    72  93  71  93  71 /  40  40  20  30  30
Apalachicola  75  90  77  89  77 /  20  40  20  40  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for
     Coastal Bay.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







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