Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 170704
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
304 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Deep layer ridging remains in place with the mid/upper ridge moving
slowly westward to the Central Gulf Coast region by this evening.
Thus, slightly drier air will filter into the region west of the
Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers. As the sea breeze develops,
the best chance for convection will mainly be along the Big Bend and
areas east. Highs will be in the low to middle 90s with heat indices
climbing to around 105.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Upper ridge centered across the northern Gulf will slide westward
in response to a shortwave trough moving across the eastern third
of the US and an inverted mid/upper trough moves westward into the
eastern Gulf by late Saturday. A weak front, supported by the
shortwave trough, will move into the southeast and stall across
the area Saturday. Focus for showers and storms will be the
typical seabreeze each day and the front. The inverted trough will
also add some mid level support for shower/storm development
Saturday. Some mid level dry air noted in area forecast soundings
may help to drive strong winds in heavier storms each afternoon
but are not expecting widespread severe weather. Temperatures
will remain in the lower 90s for highs and mid 70s for lows. Heat
indices will be in the low 100s each afternoon.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The aforementioned front hangs around the area through Sunday
night then lifts northward Monday as western Atlantic high
pressure builds over the southeast US. Chances for showers and
storms each day will remain around typical summer norms and will
be driven by the seabreeze. Temperatures will remain seasonal with
highs in the lower 90s and lows in the middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Friday]...

VFR conditions with light winds through the period. Scattered to
isolated afternoon thunderstorms with brief periods of MVFR
conditions will be possible at TLH, VLD, and ABY.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will continue through the
weekend. Expect showers and storms in the overnight and early
morning hours each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Showers and storms are expected each day. Although minor flooding
could occur in urban and poor drainage areas, widespread flooding
is not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   94  76  93  75  91 /  50  20  50  20  40
Panama City   91  79  90  78  89 /  30  10  40  30  40
Dothan        94  75  93  75  91 /  30  10  40  30  40
Albany        94  76  94  75  92 /  30  10  40  30  40
Valdosta      93  75  92  74  91 /  50  20  50  30  40
Cross City    91  76  90  75  91 /  50  20  50  20  40
Apalachicola  90  78  91  78  88 /  40  10  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Scholl



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