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FXUS62 KTAE 281501
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1001 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Previous forecast is on track with only minor tweaks needed. The overall
synoptic pattern remains very similar to this time
yesterday. Deep middle and upper layer ridging centered over the
Florida Straits, spreads north across much of Florida. Merged
northern and southern stream southwesterly flow (with a deep
tropical connection as indicated by satellite derived PWAT values
between 1.75"-2.0") stretches across the western Gulf coast, through
the lower Mississippi Valley, and into the Southeast. A northern
stream shortwave is punching into the back of the fetch of
southwesterly flow, seen clearly on WV imagery this morning. It is
this shortwave that will eventually result in a more progressive
frontal system beginning today. At the surface, a warm front remains
draped across the northeast Gulf, connecting with developing low
pressure along the LA/MS state line. As the system becomes a bit
more progressive and the surface low lifts northeast through today,
low-level flow will veer more southerly off the Panhandle coast.
This will result in more focused upslope flow over the warm front
locally. While the aforementioned anomalously high PWAT values and
position of the warm front would suggest the potential for very
heavy rainfall locally, the best deep layer forcing will remain west
of us, closer to the leading edge of the northern and southern
stream jets. All forcing for rain along the Panhandle will occur
near the 295K potential temperature surface, which originates very
close to the Gulf`s surface, and rises to near 3kft across south AL
and GA. With such shallow forcing, expect any rain that develops to
remain light to moderate. We`ll likely see a couple ribbons of
focused rain bands develop as flow progressively veers from west to
east along the northern Gulf coast. Although uncertainty in the
exact positioning of rain bands is high, it appears as though some
portion of our westernmost forecast area will be impacted once again
today. The current forecast reflects that rain will remain west of
the Apalachicola river in Florida, and west of a line from near
Albany southwest to Lake Seminole at the Tri-State intersection. The
distribution of rain will also play an important role in the high
temperature forecast as well. East of areas receiving rain, expect
high temperatures to climb into the middle and upper 70s, while
temperatures to the west will hover near 70 degrees.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...LIFR conditions remain at VLD and IFR
conditions will continue at DHN and ECP throughout today. Rain is
possible at ECP, DHN and ABY. Visibilities and cigs will be low
again overnight.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River above Lake Talquin continues to be in
recession this morning following the crest at Havana on Saturday.
Expect Thomasville to drop below flood stage early this afternoon.
Concord will remain at flood stage for the next three days, but will
drop below the critical 38.5 foot level around 2 pm Monday likely
allowing the reopening of CR-12. The Talquin lake level will
continue to rise throughout the day. Bloxham should stay just below
flood stage.

Over on the Withlacoochee System, the Little River at Havana dropped
below flood stage this morning. Expect areas along the Little River
above the confluence with the Withlacoochee River to see improving
conditions throughout the day. The crest wave within the whole
system appears to be approaching the US-84 bridge. This point is
likely to crest around 28.5 feet later this evening. Further
downstream to Pinetta, rises will continue with the potential for
minor flood stage being met after the first of the year.

Releases from Woodruff on the Apalachicola River have dropped to
33000cfs and are now at a level that Blountstown should stay below
flood stage absent any additional adjustments to the release
schedule.

In the Choctawhatchee River, Caryville crested yesterday and
continues to slowly fall and should drop below flood stage later
this afternoon. Further down river, Bruce will continue to rise and
go above flood stage later this evening. A crest around 13.5 feet
should occur Monday evening.

Future rainfall through the next 48 hours is anticipated to be in
the 1 to 1.5 inch range with heaviest values across the northwestern
portions of the region. This storm system Sunday night and into
Monday should have only limited impact on area river levels only
briefly slowing the rate of decrease at the forecast points. A short
period of quiet weather is expected throughout the remainder of the
week before a stronger storm system approaches the area next
Saturday. With little opportunity to dry out from the recent heavy
rains, the flood potential will remain elevated across the region
with river flows now well above normal.

For the most up to date information, please visit:
http://www.water.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae

&&

.Prev Discussion [407 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

A weak low pressure system will slowly move through. The associated
cold front will move through on Monday bringing a good chance for
rain (around 50 POP at most locations). Clouds will linger until
Tuesday afternoon when cooler drier air moves in. Highs will be in
the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s. Lows will be in the lower 60s on
Monday morning and upper 40s to mid 50s on Tuesday morning due to
FROPA.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

High pressure from the west will dominate the area on Wednesday and
Thursday. Clouds will begin to increase late Thursday as a low
pressure system strengthens over Texas bringing southerly wind flow
and increasing low level moisture. This low will track northeast
through the OH River Valley. Expect increased cloud cover and a
chance for rain late Friday into Saturday morning. Best chance for
rain will be Sat afternoon into the overnight hours as the cold
front passes. Temps will be seasonable with lows in the 40s
Wed/Thurs/Fri mornings and lows in the 50s Sat/Sun morning. Highs
will be in the 60s for most of the week.


.Marine...

Light to moderate winds and low seas are expected to prevail through
the next five days as weak pressure systems influence the weather
pattern. Winds will be onshore until Monday when a weak cold front
pushes through the waters bringing offshore flow. Offshore flow will
continue until late in the week when they swing around to become
onshore again ahead of the next approaching cold front. Advisory
conditions are possible Friday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  62  73  53  70 /  10  40  50  30  10
Panama City   69  63  71  54  66 /  40  50  50  20  10
Dothan        71  60  68  48  63 /  70  60  40  20  10
Albany        73  61  70  49  65 /  30  50  50  20  10
Valdosta      77  61  73  55  67 /   0  30  50  40  10
Cross City    78  62  76  58  72 /   0  20  40  30  20
Apalachicola  69  63  72  56  66 /  20  40  40  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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