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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 272025
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Clear skies and dry conditions will allow temperatures to fall once
again into the middle to lower 30s away from the coast. A very
light, on-and-off northwest wind will likely keep temperatures above
freezing for most locations. Patchy frost will be possible as well,
but shouldn`t be too thick or widespread due to the light winds.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The high amplitude long wave trough will be east of the area at the
start of the period with nearly zonal flow in place by 12Z Thursday.
A northern stream trough will pass north of the region Thursday
night. Surface high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Wednesday
morning will slide south to our forecast area by Thursday. Yet
another cold front will sweep across the region Thursday night.
Models have been trending drier with this front, but we have kept in
a slight chance for showers after midnight. Temps will be a few
degrees below normal Wednesday and Wednesday night, seasonal on
Thursday and milder than normal Thursday night.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
An upper level ridge will build over the area from Friday night into
Saturday with another northern stream trough passing north of the
area on Sunday and Sunday night. A surface frontal system will
accompany this feature with the cold frontal passage most likely
occurring on Sunday. We have edged PoPs up to the chance category
for this event and these may rise as the timing of the frontal
passage becomes more certain. High pressure will then regain control
of the weather from Monday into Tuesday. Temps will be near seasonal
levels through the weekend with cooler temps arriving early next
week. Overnight lows will be above normal through the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] VFR conditions under clear skies are
expected through the TAF for all terminals. Gusty winds this
afternoon will come to an end this evening for the remainder of
the TAF.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas have now dropped below small craft advisory criteria
and we will instead go with an exercise caution headline for
tonight. Winds and seas will drop below headline criteria on
Wednesday and gradually veer to onshore by Thursday as high pressure
settles to the south. Winds will increase slightly behind a cold
front on Friday morning, but are expected to reach cautionary levels
from Friday night into Sunday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values just above critical thresholds will
preclude any hazardous fire weather conditions over the next several
days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far
Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has
crested at Thomasville just below flood stage. This suggests that
downstream conditions at Concord and Havana will be very near or
just above flood stage later this week.

The Withlacoochee River crested above Valdosta this morning and the
additional water from the Little River (cresting at Hahira
this evening) will likely result in minor flood levels later this
week below Valdosta at US-84.

The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday, with models
suggesting a widespread 0.5-1.0 inch rainfall amounts across the
area. Though these amounts are unlikely to result in any
additional river flooding, they will continue to help keep area
stream flows above normal as we move into February.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   37  60  34  64  48 /   0   0   0   0  20
Panama City   41  57  42  63  52 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dothan        34  56  36  63  47 /   0   0   0   0  20
Albany        32  55  32  61  44 /   0   0   0   0  20
Valdosta      35  56  33  63  45 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    36  59  32  65  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  42  59  42  64  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through late tonight for Coastal Gulf-South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
