Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 041937
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL +PV ANOMALY WILL SWING EASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS TO THE
APPALACHIANS, INCREASING THE LLJ OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA AND UP
THROUGH THE CAROLINA`S. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ENHANCING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE VIRGINIA-WEST VIRGINIA
BORDER SOUTHWESTWARD TO ARKANSAS, WHICH HAS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
LIES TO ITS SOUTH NEAR OUR CWA NORTHERN BORDER. LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A HIGH COVERAGE OF STORMS FORMING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION TO THE ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY, WE ALSO
HAVE A FAIRLY ACTIVE NORTH FLORIDA SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND.
MODERATE 1000-700 MB FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL HELP FEED GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE SEA BREEZE STORMS AND THOSE FORMING ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 3000 J/KG SBCAPE
OVER OUR AREA AND THE 12Z TAE SOUNDING SHOWED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5 C/KM. WITH THIS MUCH INSTABILITY IN THE ENVIRONMENT, WE
EXPECT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL AS WELL. STORMS WILL
CLEAR OUT OF FLORIDA AROUND SUNSET, BUT MAY LAST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, DIPPING INTO THE LOW 70S
OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM MONDAY NIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH A WEAKER ONE
ARRIVING ON MONDAY. BOTH FEATURES WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES IN THE
DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS POPS IN THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE THROUGHOUT OUR CWA ON SUNDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
MOS. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS (60-70%) ALL ZONES SUNDAY AND GOOD CHANCE
(50%) FOR MOST INLAND AREAS MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AT OR JUST
UNDER SEASONAL LEVELS (UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) AND LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES, A NARROW RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING NEAR TO ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES (LOWS IN THE 70S AND
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S) WITH NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO POPS (30-
40%).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] WE ARE EXPECTING A HIGH COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY, WITH STORMS NEAR DHN
AND ABY LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IFR-MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN STORMS DIRECTLY AFFECT TERMINALS,
ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 25 KTS OR MORE. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT DHN
AND VLD. SUNDAY MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE AN EARLY
START, AROUND 13-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...

RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL
FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVER STAGES REMAINED BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION LEVELS, AND THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE DO NOT EXPECT
ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   73  90  72  92  73 /  20  70  30  50  30
PANAMA CITY   78  85  77  87  76 /  20  50  30  40  20
DOTHAN        72  87  71  89  72 /  30  70  40  50  30
ALBANY        72  88  71  90  72 /  30  70  40  50  30
VALDOSTA      71  91  71  92  72 /  30  60  30  50  30
CROSS CITY    73  91  73  92  73 /  20  60  30  50  30
APALACHICOLA  77  86  75  89  76 /  20  40  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL FRANKLIN.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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