Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 281126
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
626 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017
.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...
Expect mostly IFR and MVFR CIGs this morning with patchy fog. VFR
conditions will return by mid to late morning. Patchy fog is
possible late tonight but confidence is low so it was left out of
the TAF. FOG and/or low CIGs may be added with the 18Z TAF
.PREV DISCUSSION [305 AM EST]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
In the upper levels slight ridging will be over the Southeast today.
At the surface a low will be centered over Iowa and high pressure
will be over Eastern CONUS. POPs will be near zero today. Widespread
fog is expected in the morning hours. Cloud cover will thin out by
afternoon and highs will be in the lower 80s.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Mid level shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains to
upper Midwest, supporting a surface low pressure system and cold
front which is still expected to arrive late Wednesday afternoon
from the northwest and gradually move across the area Wednesday
night and early Thursday morning. A broken and weakening line of
showers and storms will accompany the front. The best dynamics
will reside well north of the region and instability will be
decreasing rapidly Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime
heating. SPC has outlooked our area in a marginal risk for severe
weather later Wednesday. The threat should be decreasing by the
time the front arrives, however, if any storms become severe,
damaging winds is the main threat.
Rainfall pushes offshore and across the eastern FL Big Bend
counties Thursday. High pressure will build into the Red River
Valley which will help decrease clouds from north to south
Unseasonable warmth will continue Wednesday with highs in the low
to mid 80s inland and upper 70s at the coast. Cooler temperatures
expected Thursday behind the front with highs in the mid to upper
60s...low 70s across the eastern Big Bend counties.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Zonal flow will take hold Thursday night through Saturday at which
time deep layer ridging takes over late in the weekend. There are
indications of the next cold front for Tuesday but some
disagreement in the models in timing. Temperatures will remain on
the cooler side through Saturday then a slow warming trend begins
as mid level ridging builds across the southeast US.
Onshore flow will continue through midweek as high pressure
remains in control. Winds will switch around to the north in the
wake of a frontal passage Wednesday night. Moderate to strong
winds can be expected behind the frontal passage with cautionary
or advisory level winds lasting from Wednesday night into the
Humidity will stay above critical thresholds for Red Flag
conditions. Dispersions will be high on Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons. Fog is likely this morning.
Rainfall totals for the next weather system (Wednesday-Thursday)
will average less than an inch. River and/or urban flooding is
not expected. Of the area`s river systems, the Choctawhatchee is
the only river in action stage.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 83 62 83 62 69 / 0 10 10 40 20
Panama City 76 65 76 61 66 / 10 10 20 40 20
Dothan 81 62 81 55 64 / 10 10 20 70 10
Albany 83 60 84 56 66 / 10 0 20 60 10
Valdosta 85 62 85 61 68 / 10 0 10 40 30
Cross City 84 62 83 62 72 / 0 0 10 20 40
Apalachicola 75 64 76 64 69 / 0 10 10 40 40