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000
FXUS62 KTAE 271847
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
247 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A weak cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to
stall before reaching our CWA. Isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms will continue to develop across the region into the
early evening before most of I this activity dissipates. There is
chance of convection overnight, mainly along or near the coast.
Lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A large upper low will drop from the Great Lakes region into the
Ohio Valley by Wednesday night. At the surface, the response to
this will be a cold front clearing through the entire Tri-State
region by midday Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
region-wide on Wednesday, and mainly across the extreme southeast
Big Bend through the first part of the day Thursday. Due to some
forecast marginally steep lapse rates a few storms may be able to
produce gusty winds, though widespread organized severe weather is
not expected due to rather weak low/deep layer shear.

It`s possible that on Wednesday night, low to mid 60s will creep
into our southeast Alabama and extreme western Georgia counties
behind the front. However, temperatures near normal are expected
for most locations through Thursday. By Thursday night, lows are
expected to range from the upper 50s across southeast Alabama, to
the low 60s from Tallahassee through Valdosta, and up into the
middle to upper 60s across the southeast Big Bend.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The weekend will feature the coolest temperatures associated with
the aforementioned cold front. Expect highs on Friday in the low
80s for most locations, falling into the middle and upper 50s on
Friday night. Afternoon highs will gradually moderate back to
normal levels Saturday and Sunday, with lows still in the lower
60s on Saturday night. The upper low will lift northeast on
Sunday, taking with it the cooler airmass aloft. At the surface,
easterly flow will become established gradually moderating
overnight lows to finish the period. Rain chances will also return
to our Big Bend and Suwannee Basin counties in the moist easterly
flow regime.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Wednesday]...

We may see MVFR vsbys develop just before dawn with the best chance
once again at DHN and VLD. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead
of a cold front may briefly impact the terminals on Wednesday. The
best chance for rain before 18z will be at ECP, TLH. Winds will be
light.

&&

.MARINE...

In general, winds and seas are forecast to remain below Advisory
and Cautionary levels over the next several days. The only
exception will be late Thursday into Friday as Cautionary level
winds on the nose of high pressure spread into the northeast Gulf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moderate winds, combined with deep daytime mixing, may drive
dispersion values above 75 across portions of the region Wednesday
afternoon. Otherwise there are no concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rain is expected Wednesday and early Thursday ahead of a cold
front that will bring drier air for the weekend. However, no
widespread, significant rainfall or flooding threats are
anticipated through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   70  89  71  89  63 /  20  50  20  10   0
Panama City   72  86  75  86  67 /  30  40  20   0   0
Dothan        69  89  63  85  58 /  20  30  10   0   0
Albany        69  89  66  86  58 /  20  30  10   0   0
Valdosta      70  90  70  89  61 /  10  40  20  10   0
Cross City    70  88  74  88  66 /  20  50  30  20   0
Apalachicola  73  86  76  87  68 /  30  50  30  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan/Scholl