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000
FXUS62 KTAE 131335
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
935 AM EDT Thu Mar 13 2014

.Near Term [Today]...

The 8 am EDT regional surface analysis showed the cold front that
passed through our region last night in South FL, with a high
pressure ridge (centered over LA) building east along the Gulf
Coast. Despite plenty of sun, highs will still be below average in
the lower to mid 60s. Gusty winds this morning will gradually
diminish later this afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]...Unrestricted vis and cigs are expected
through Friday. Gusty north winds this morning will gradually
subside later this afternoon, with calm winds expected overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [319 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
After a somewhat unseasonably cool day today, the ridge of high
pressure responsible will settle in just to the north of our region.
With clear skies and light winds, this will set the stage for good
radiational cooling conditions, with low temperatures approaching
the freezing mark in some locations away from the coast. However, we
do not believe that durations of any temps that are freezing or
possibly slightly below will be long enough to warrant a freeze
warning at this time, but areas of frost are certainly likely across
a good portion of the interior. Should this change and the model
guidance trend lower, then a freeze warning may need to be
considered later today. On Friday, high temps will recover back
towards more typical readings for this time of year, into the upper
60s to the lower 70s, except for the immediate coast where the cool
Gulf surface water will limit highs to the mid 60s. Low temps will
moderate into the lower to middle 40s on Friday night, with highs
generally in the lower to middle 70s on Saturday. However, a low
pressure system beginning to approach the region from the west will
bring an increase in cloud cover and slight rain chances along with
it, but the higher chances for rain with this system will hold off
until the extended portion of the fcst.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Wednesday]...
Both the Euro and GFS indicate the next system will affect the
area around Sunday with an increased chance for rain. Dynamics
and instability look like they could be sufficient for some
isolated thunderstorms as well. The system is expected to be
progressive and clear out on Monday with dry conditions returning
afterward. Seasonal temperatures are expected.


.Marine...
The strong Small Craft Advisory winds that have developed across the
coastal waters overnight behind the cold frontal passage will
gradually diminish from north to south over the marine area today.
These winds (and corresponding seas) should drop below advisory
levels across the nearshore zones this morning and the offshore
zones this afternoon. Thereafter, generally light to moderate winds
and seas are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.


.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values will drop into the upper teens to lower 20s
across the region today. In Georgia and Florida, fuel moisture and
ERC values will not meet red flag criteria. For our southeast
Alabama zones, we will see marginal red flag conditions with
relative humidity values less than 25 percent around 4 hours. On
Friday, we expect marginal red flag conditions once again for
southeast Alabama, otherwise, no concerns for Georgia and Florida.
Over the weekend, relative humidity will increase and remain above
critical thresholds through the rest of the period.


.Hydrology...
Recent rainfall amounts generally ranged from a quarter to a half
inch across the CWA, which will have little effect on area rivers
which should remain below flood stage through the weekend. Several
locations along the Apalachicola River and the Ochlockonee are at
bankfull, but no significant impacts are expected. This could change
depending on the next rainfall event which is expected to impact the
region mainly on Sunday into Monday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  33  70  42  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
Panama City   62  40  67  51  70 /   0   0   0  10  30
Dothan        62  35  69  45  71 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        62  33  69  42  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
Valdosta      62  34  72  42  76 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    65  32  71  44  77 /   0   0   0  10  20
Apalachicola  62  41  65  50  69 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN/GOULD