Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 311319
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
919 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 7 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front oriented east west across south GA and AL. Upper air data
and vapor imagery showed a very flat, weak height gradient over
the Southeast, typical of early summer. However, the mid
troposphere remained quite dry, which should shorten the life
cycle of many of today`s convective cells. Many of the CAMs, like
they successfully predicted 24 hours ago, forecast scattered to
numerous cells developing by mid afternoon, mainly along the FL
sea breeze fronts. Storms will be more isolated in south GA where
the boundary layer will be drier. Forecast SBCAPE values are not
that impressive for this time of year (1000-1500 J/KG), and mid
layer lapse rates are not very steep (about 5.5 C/km). Coupled
with weak winds aloft, we`re not expecting organized or
widespread severe storms today, but one or two pulse severe
storms are possible. Few changes were needed to the previous
forecast package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [631 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

The upper ridge will strengthen across the southeast through the
short term while summer like conditions continue. The seabreeze
will continue to be the dominate feature each afternoon kicking
off shower and thunderstorm activity for the afternoon into the
evening time period. Based on this, the forecast is for 20-40
percent PoPs each day. Highs temperatures at TLH will be about 4-5
degrees above normal.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

While the summer like conditions and seabreeze will continue into
the weekend, a front will sink into the southeast late in the
weekend and help to enhance PoPs Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday
though, models differ with how they handle the front. GFS sinks
the front south of the CWA while the ECMWF lingers the front
across the southern portion of the CWA. The GFS would result in
drier conditions by Tuesday. Initially temperatures will reach
into the mid 90s across parts of the CWA, but moderate into the
mid 80s to lower 90s by Sunday as clouds and precip increase.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...

LIFR visibility and low ceilings at ECP and TLH should improve to
VFR by 15Z. This afternoon sea breeze thunderstorms are most
likely at ECP, TLH and DHN after 18Z.


.MARINE...

Light winds and low seas will persist through the weekend with a
possible enhancement to wind speeds in the afternoon associated
with the seabreeze.


.FIRE WEATHER...

There are no fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Significant rainfall is not expected over the next few days and
thus there are no flooding concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   94  71  95  70  95 /  40  20  30  10  20
Panama City   84  73  84  72  84 /  20  10  10   0  10
Dothan        93  70  93  69  93 /  40  20  20  20  20
Albany        94  71  93  71  93 /  20  20  30  30  30
Valdosta      93  69  93  70  93 /  30  20  40  20  30
Cross City    92  70  92  70  92 /  30  10  30  10  20
Apalachicola  86  72  86  70  86 /  20  10  10   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Weston
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Weston
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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