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000
FXUS62 KTAE 201535
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1135 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

With stratus refusing to lift...updated 1st period GRIDS to
increase sky cover and tweak dwon expected Max temps..to low 70s
west to upper 60s east.

The large scale regional pattern this morning shows mid/upper ridge
over Wrn MS and slow moving low parked just off Carolina Coast. At
the surface...low has slightly decoupled from upper system and was
located off SE GA Coast. In response...High continues to wedge down
Ern seaboard. Wrap around moisture from surface low continues to
move WSW and across local area keeping a low stratus blanket with
some drizzle Ern third of CWA. This reflected in RAP soundings and
12z RAOBS which show ample moisture at lowest levels then
increasingly dry air and with PWATs hovering around 0.9 inches...
NNE flow at lowest levels backing to NLY H85-H6 then NW above H6.

During the rest of today...upstream ridge will continue to build Ewd
with rising heights..NVA and increasing subsidence especially Wrn CFWA.
This will shunt low further to the NE. Surface low moves further
Newd with Ern ridge wedging down into the Nrn CWA. This could
tighten local gradient and provide some gusty winds. As a result...
low level flow backs to NE and PWATS remain near 1 inch implying
that low clouds will be slow to erode..especially NE third of CWA.
Further west..expect some morning breaks in the overcast followed by
partly cloudy aftn skies as upper/lower ridge impact increasingly
felt. All this could impact max temps. Highs will be warmer than
yesterday...from the low 70s SW to upper 60s across cloudier NE.


&&

.Prev Discussion [918 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The forecast 500 mb height pattern over the Southeast will be one of
change to begin the work week, with ridging tonight & Monday,
followed by a positive tilt trough on Tuesday. Fair weather and
partly cloudy skies are expected through Monday night, with
temperatures near climatology. Rain chances will increase on
Tuesday, mainly in South AL & GA with the approach of a cold front
from the northwest. The GFS and ECMWF indicate that this system will
be a much more typical April system (compared to the much stronger,
wetter systems we`ve seen so far this normally dry month)- with
modest PoP (ranging from 20 to 40%) and low QPF (less than 0.25 in).
Any threat of severe storms with this system appears very low due to
weak forcing and winds aloft. Temperatures will continue near climo
values on Tuesday.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]...

The next frontal system looks like it will move through the area
on Tuesday. However, it looks weak and fast moving with most of
the deep layer moisture affecting the northern half of the area
with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pattern
appears to remain fairly progressive through the period, and
another weak system may affect the area on Saturday. The remainder
of the period looks dry with near to slightly above average
temperatures.


.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Monday]...IFR then borderline MVFR cigs will
continue to prevail this morning. Thereafter, the low level
cloudiness will gradually begin to scatter out from SW to NE
through the afternoon and early evening as the deep layer low
pressure system off the northeast Florida coast moves further
away. NE Winds 5 to 10 mph will persist past midnight. Neither fog
nor low clouds are expected.


.Marine...

Moderate north winds this morning will gradually weaken and veer to
the east through Monday as the eastern U.S. ridge becomes centered
closer to our forecast area. Winds will become westerly ahead of an
approaching cold front on Tuesday, but will remain rather
light.


.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the upcoming work week.


.Hydrology...

The several recent heavy rain events have caused nearly all of our
local rivers to be above normal stage/flow, with the most recent
rain event on Friday driving several rivers well above flood stage.
Some of the more notable river forecasts are: The Choctawhatchee at
Bruce is expected to reach major flood stage Sunday evening. Points
along the following rivers are forecast to reach moderate flood
stage: St. Mark`s, Ochlockonee, Chipola, and Shoal rivers.
Fortunately, for now, our medium range NWP models are not
forecasting any heavy rain events for the upcoming work week.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  52  78  52  81 /   0   0   0   0  20
Panama City   70  56  75  60  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        71  52  78  57  79 /   0   0   0   0  40
Albany        69  50  78  54  80 /   0   0   0   0  30
Valdosta      69  50  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    72  52  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  68  56  73  59  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/WESTON