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000
FXUS62 KTAE 231907
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
307 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
In general, a rather weak pressure pattern will prevail locally,
south of a surface ridge. Aloft, ridging will continue to overspread
the southeast. Subsidence aloft of a moist boundary layer behind the
seabreeze front will promote areas of fog across north Florida
tonight. Throughout south Georgia and southeast Alabama, radiational
cooling and a slightly less moist boundary layer will favor only
patchy light fog development near dawn. No rain is expected.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Surface high pressure and light southeast flow at the lower levels
over our area should force a sea-breeze over the Panhandle and Big
Bend tomorrow, but with a fairly dry airmass in place, this isn`t
expected to cause a lot of rain so much as an increase in afternoon
cloud cover over the area, although an isolated shower cannot be
ruled out. With a mid-level shortwave over the western Florida
Peninsula and south-central Georgia, however, the chance for
thunderstorms and showers increases slightly (to around 30%) for the
eastern portions of our forecast area tomorrow afternoon. Highs
Thursday will be in the mid 80s with noticeably cooler temps along
the immediate coastline in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows Thursday
night will stay around 60.

On Friday, an approaching cold front will begin to decay as it
approaches us with the upper level low supporting it begins to
de-amplify and lift northeastward. Rain chances will be around 20%
for our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia counties on Friday
with highs in the mid-80s once again and lows in the low 60s.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The period begins with upper level ridging in place with surface
high pressure off of the coast of South Carolina. To our northwest,
an upper level low will begin to deepen over the central Plains as a
shortwave trough propagates through it, deepening a surface low
beneath it. As the shortwave trough swings through Monday, the low
will become cut off and move eastward, pushing the surface low
across the Plains and into the Ohio valley. The associated front
will bring thunderstorms to our area Monday through Tuesday. The GFS
is showing around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts, so there is
the potential for some of these storms to be strong to severe. The
system may linger over the eastern portion of the forecast area
Tuesday night-Wednesday, but instability will be lower by mid-week,
reducing the chances of severe weather.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday]
VFR conditions under a low/mid layer CU field will prevail for the
remainder of the afternoon. Overnight expect IFR visibilities and or
ceilings across north Florida, with temporary MVFR conditions near
dawn elsewhere.


&&

.Marine...
Nocturnal surges in the Apalachee Bay and afternoon surges along
the coastline due to the sea-breeze will bump up winds to around
15 knots, with winds further offshore staying around 10 knots or
less and seas around 1 to 2 feet through the weekend. Ahead of our
next cold front, winds and seas will begin to pick up Monday, but
are expected to remain below headline criteria at this time.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds into
the weekend. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions are not
anticipated.


&&

.Hydrology...
Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage. Most
area rivers have already crested with the exception of the Suwannee
where river levels will rise slowly for the remainder of the week.
The next chance for any significant rainfall is next Tuesday.


The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  84  60  85  63 /   0  10  10  10  10
Panama City   64  77  63  75  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        57  84  60  85  62 /   0  10  10  20  10
Albany        56  84  60  86  62 /   0  10  10  20  10
Valdosta      59  85  59  85  61 /   0  20  20  10  10
Cross City    59  83  58  82  62 /   0  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  62  75  61  74  65 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN