


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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118 FXUS62 KTAE 160558 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A weak tropical disturbance will continue to move westward through the area today. Most of the convection has remained offshore during the overnight hours. As the system continues moving westward, bands of showers and thunderstorms on the east side of the system are expected to develop across the area with southerly flow. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall are possible, especially near the coast. Overall, the threat of flooding is non-zero, but so far it looks too isolated to warrant any flood watches. The best chance at seeing heavy rain will probably occur from mid-morning into early afternoon across the coastal areas and extend inland across the Florida panhandle and big bend. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler today with the cloud cover and early start to convection. For tonight, a few bands of showers and thunderstorms may linger on the east side of the system near the coast with southerly flow. Overnight lows will remain muggy in the mid 70s, except upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 On the backside of the tropical disturbance as it progresses west, southeast flow will be in place Thursday and PWATs will be in excess of 2 inches for most locations with likely to categorical pops in place, highest south of I10 and west of the Apalachicola river to 50% from Albany to Valdosta and north from there. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and storms. Beginning Friday into the weekend, the subtropical ridge builds into the southeast US from the east as the disturbance becomes absorbed in the flow. Each day gets a little warmer while rain chances slightly decrease. PWATs decrease to under 1.7 inches by Sunday as drier air becomes more evident in the column above 700 mb as the ridge builds west into the ArkLaTex. This will allow less coverage of convection, better low level mixing and higher afternoon temperatures towards the upper 90s. Heat advisories may be back in play in portions of the area beginning this weekend depending on how much mixing takes place each afternoon. Heading into the next work week, a weakness off the east coast may allow tropical moisture to wrap southwest back across the area with PWATs increasing back up to over 2 inches. If this occurs, rain chances appear to increase back to likely which will serve to break the heat from the weekend with increased convection coverage and high temps back into the mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An unsettled pattern looks to continue later this morning and through the afternoon as a tropical disturbance (AL93) pushes westward through the area. MVFR ceilings are currently forecast for VLD and ABY for portions of early-late morning as some lower clouds push through. VFR conditions should otherwise prevail, with any terminal restrictions manifesting as brief MVFR or IFR conditions in rounds of heavy showers/thunderstorms. Both spatial and temporal coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be greater than a typical summertime pattern, with current guidance suggesting activity picking up as early as 12z for our southern terminals. As the disturbance pushes westward and southerly flow establishes early afternoon, scattered to widespread TSRA should develop with a general south to north progression. The timing of the rounds of convection is attempted for each terminal site in the TAFs, although there is considerable uncertainty with timing out finer mesoscale features and thus further tweaks may be necessary. && .MARINE... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An area of low pressure will track westward today through the Florida panhandle or just offshore. Winds will turn southerly as the low moves by, with increasing winds and seas as a result. Cautionary conditions east of Apalachicola today and all waters tonight into Thursday night with advisory conditions possible. Beginning Friday and into the weekend, high pressure builds across the Gulf waters with winds and seas becoming favorable with wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Humidity and rain chances will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum for the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 WPC continues the marginal risk for excessive rainfall through the southern half of the area and especially in coastal areas for the next several days. The low pressure area will continue westward through Thursday with winds turning more onshore and PWATs in excess of 2 inches. 1-3 inches of rainfall, with the higher side of the range closer to the coast, appears reasonable from WPC. This will lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in areas that have received recent heavy rains as well as any training or slower moving storms. As the subtropical ridge builds in for the weekend and PWATs begin to decline, rain chances decrease and thus coverage of rainfall will lower as well, though this may be shortlived as moisture increases again at the beginning of the next work week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 75 91 76 / 80 20 90 10 Panama City 88 78 89 79 / 90 50 90 40 Dothan 89 75 92 74 / 80 10 80 10 Albany 91 74 94 74 / 60 10 60 0 Valdosta 93 74 95 76 / 70 10 60 10 Cross City 91 73 93 74 / 80 40 80 20 Apalachicola 86 79 87 80 / 90 60 90 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Scholl LONG TERM....Scholl AVIATION...DVD/IM MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Scholl