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000
FXUS62 KTBW 022014
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
314 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...
BROAD UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARDS FLORIDA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
STABLE AND GENERALLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CHIEF FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
REMAINS FOG AND SEA FOG. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S
AND LOW 70S...HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL LAND ZONES ONCE
AGAIN THIS EVENING...BEFORE BURNING OFF A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SEA FOG WILL BE A BIT HARDER TO FORECAST
HOWEVER. SOME PATCHES OF SEA FOG WERE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
AND WEB CAMS THIS MORNING...BUT QUICKLY BURNED OFF AND AND PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
SEA FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DISSIPATED...SEVERAL LOCAL AND NATIONAL
MODEL GUIDANCE PACKAGES ARE INDICATING THAT IT IS STILL A THREAT
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS AND LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARINE
ZONES...BUT COULD RISE UNDER THE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF
THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SEA FOG WILL
RETURN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT IS JUST A MATTER OF WHEN. THE
FORECAST GRIDS WILL CARRY A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG STARTING AT 00Z
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE BAY UNDER EAST FLOW LATE
TUESDAY MORNING.

APART FROM THE FOG...WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. GENERALLY EAST WINDS WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY
A SEA BREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THEN SOME
DIFFERENCES SHOW UP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY THEN
BECOME SUPPRESSED SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DEEPENING THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND SOME ENERGY MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LONGER
WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN EVENTUALLY LINE UP AGAIN WITH THE GFS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. AT THIS
TIME HAVE CONTINUED LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION FOR
THIS FORECAST. THEREFORE WE SHOULD SEE CONTINUATION OF THE WARM AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH
BIGGEST PROBLEM BEING THE POTENTIAL SEA FOG. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING
THE BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SOME CLOUDS AND THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AND HAVE
THEREFORE LEFT 20 TO 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND
INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN FALL CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS AROUND 3000-5000 FEET. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW
STATUS WILL LIKELY BRING FLIGHT CATEGORIES DOWN TO IFR/LIFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FORMATION OF SEA FOG
AS WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LIKELY STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AREAS OF FOG ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS...THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  80  65  81 /  10  10  10   0
FMY  65  84  65  85 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  64  82  64  85 /  10  10   0  10
SRQ  63  80  63  82 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  61  82  59  84 /  10  10  10  10
SPG  65  79  66  79 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
MARINE...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE