Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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635
FXUS62 KTBW 190049
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
849 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...
The current short term forecast is on track and only slight
adjustments were made to earlier PoPs. Less cloud cover and
rain led to our temperatures rebounding this afternoon with
locations climbing back to the mid to upper 80s as a weak
stalled frontal boundary meanders to our south. Showers
which moved across the peninsula this afternoon quickly
dissipated before they could make it to the West coast.
Tonight will be very pleasant, especially across the Nature
Coast where clear skies and lower moisture will help bring
temperatures into the low-mid 60s. Expect a similar story
tomorrow with breezy conditions, low rain chances, and
temperatures in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR conditions through the remainder of the
overnight hours. Low stratus is expected to move into the
area resulting in lower cigs, but this should not impact
flight categories. Winds remain gusty, sustained at 10-15
knots with an occasional gust close to 20 knots out of the
northeast. While winds will begin to relax some during the
overnight hours, the tight pressure gradient in place will
result in another day of these strong northeast winds
tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure to our north will maintain persistent
northeast winds of 15-20 knots with higher gusts and waves
of 3-5 feet off the coast. As a result, a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect. By the end of this weekend, winds
should begin to relax some as high pressure slides off to
our east and winds veer to a more southerly component. A
cold front will then approach the area early in the work
week with the potential of high winds and seas by mid week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Although winds will continue to be gusty over the next
several days, RH values are expected to remain above
critical levels and the lack of dry fuels will result in
a low fire concern.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  70  89  73  88 /   0  10   0  20
FMY  72  89  72  88 /  10  10  10  30
GIF  69  88  71  86 /  10  10  10  20
SRQ  71  89  72  87 /   0  10  10  20
BKV  67  87  69  87 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  71  86  73  88 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...42/Norman
UPPER AIR...11/McKaughan
DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard



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