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000
FXUS62 KTBW 161443
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1030 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AWIPS UPGRADE THIS MORNING...
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED AND BROUGHT COOL AIR OVER THE REGION IS
STATIONARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS MORNINGS TBW SOUNDING IS DRY
WITH 0.38 INCH PW WITH A LOW INVERSION. THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED FROM
TAMPA BAY NORTH THIS MORNING BUT LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. THE STALLING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
BEGIN TO BACK UP AS A WARM FRONT SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE GULF AND STRENGTHENS PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS FLORIDA.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN PLACE TO START THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES SURROUNDING THE HANDLING
OF PHASED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A SOLUTION SLOWER
THAN THE 00Z GFS AND FASTER THAN THE 00Z NAM/00Z ECMWF TO HOPEFULLY
REDUCE POTENTIAL FORECAST ERROR. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL SOLUTIONS
ALL INDICATE A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL KEEP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY...AND THEN SHOW THINGS DRYING OUT WITH RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FORECAST
CERTAINLY COULD AND MOST LIKELY WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO CONVERGE...AND THIS WILL EITHER
SHORTEN OR LENGTHEN THE WINDOW IN WHICH RAIN IS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY BUT WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 15Z EXCEPT FOR THE GULF
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. WHILE WINDS MAY
LESSEN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...SPEEDS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER WILL
RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING SO HAVE ELECTED
TO CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL RELAX SOME FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&


.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
TARPON      SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
TO      SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

CP/RR