Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 261900
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS MOIST AIR
IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MID-UPPER
TROUGH IN MIDDLE OF U.S. DEEPENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE WEATHER INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EXIST WITH THE FIRST FROM FRANKIN
COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ST JOE BAY SOUTH INTO THE
GULF. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS
MOIST AIR IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON.THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE STATE FRIDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
NW FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY NW-N WINDS TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE SPRING BREAK WEEKEND.
SATURDAY SKIES TO CLEAR WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION MOVING NEWARD KEEPING TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW END DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/RD



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