Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 040746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES
TO LIFT NEWARD WHILE THE REGION REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL RESIDUAL VORT MAXES
MEANDERING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THE AREA CONTINUES TO LOOSE THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHILE A WEAK AND INCREASING DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STRETCHED BACK OVER THE N FL PENINSULA AND NE GULF THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL PROGRESSES NORTHWARD TODAY. THE
LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD WATCH ZONES THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
LIKE LAST FEW DAYS BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM SURFACE EVAPORATION
OF EXISTING RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS TO EXACERBATE
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TO UPPER RIDGING
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SCATTERED DIURNAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DEEPENING SOME LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A GENERAL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WE SHOULD SEE THE MORE
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE INTERIOR
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT WE COULD
SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80
NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST THAT DO NOT RECEIVE LATE NIGHT RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
.AVIATION... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKENING SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2
FT OR LESS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT THOUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER OR FOG CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RURAL AND URBAN
AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN PASCO...NORTHERN
PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO FLOOD WATERS WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TODAY.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT
WITH MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TODAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  77  90  78 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  30  20  50  20
GIF  92  75  93  76 /  40  30  50  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  20   0  20  10
BKV  89  72  91  73 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  89  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.