Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 070933
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
433 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES REMAIN AS POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
MOVING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THIS WONT PUSH OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SO THE ADDED LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. STRONG
CAA ALREADY TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ALREADY
OCCURRING AREA WIDE. THIS COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER GULF
WATERS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU OVER THE GULF
WATERS. SO SOME COASTAL SPOTS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER IN THE DAY. BY
AFTERNOON...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REIGN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR FLORIDIANS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S WITH MAYBE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES JUST ECLIPSING THE 60 DEGREE MARK. COOLER TEMPS COMBINED
WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. EXPECTING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET SO WE SHOULD AVOID ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CONCERNS.

WE WILL WARM UP SOME ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WHICH
WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN SO WE SHOULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS ROBUST WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SETUP WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF OF MEXICO CAUSING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MORE COOL DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK. LATE IN
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN SOME WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A LITTLE OVER FLORIDA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND OVER FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING SATURDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TO SETUP LATE IN THE
WEEK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SKC EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. ALREADY SEEING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT  ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE BRIEFLY
SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS DECREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SURGE OF WINDS ARRIVES
OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN AREA WIDE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL
GULF WATERS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE LIKELY. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 10-12
FEET ACROSS GULF WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. WHILE LOW HUMIDITIES MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...ALONG
WITH ERC VALUES...AND NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  45  64  50 /  10   0  20  20
FMY  61  44  66  54 /  10   0   0  20
GIF  59  41  67  47 /   0   0  10  20
SRQ  57  46  66  53 /  10   0  10  20
BKV  55  38  65  46 /  10   0  20  30
SPG  57  49  65  53 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE


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