Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 301958
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
358 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE EXPECTED BEHIND COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ITS PROGRESS INTO THE PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. A BOUNDARY...PRODUCING CONVECTION IN THE
GULF...HAS PUSHED CLOSER TO THE SUNCOAST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DUE TO THE CONVECTION HAS MEANDERED OVER THE PENINSULA AND HAS
HELPED LOWER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY LIMITING SOME OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING TODAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. ENOUGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO PRODUCE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG...THOUGH
IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY
THE AFTERNOON. CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE THE
ORDER OF THE DAY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN...BUT THE MORE DRASTIC CHANGE WILL BE BEHIND THE NEXT
REINFORCING FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT OVER
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...PREFERRED A BLEND OF MAV/ECMWF/MET MOS
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A VERY DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY ITSELF IS GOING TO FEEL QUITE CHILLY. TEMPERATURES MAY
CONTINUE TO FALL FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN
CLIMB SLOWLY INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME LOWER 70S FAR SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST ALL DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...BUT THE COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WARMER
GULF WATERS WILL RESULT IN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WHICH WILL AFFECT
MAINLY COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE 15
TO AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE 40S. THERE
IS NO RISK OF FROST SINCE WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT AND DEW POINTS
WILL BE QUITE LOW. WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE RECORD LOWS FOR NOVEMBER
2ND. THE RECORD AT TAMPA IS 40 DEGREES SET IN 1993. OUR CURRENT
FORECAST LOW FOR TAMPA IS AROUND 47.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH A RIDGE
BUILDING IN BY MONDAY. COOL AIR WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION
AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...BUT
WITH TIME THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC ALLOWING FOR A
QUICK WARM UP BY MID-WEEK. SUNDAY WILL STILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY AROUND 70...BUT TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER THAT
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER COULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE
WEEK. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS...SO WILL
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
COULD BRING LAL AND PGD TO MVFR OR LOWER BRIEFLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS WILL PICK UP AND TURN NW ON FRIDAY. SOME
CONVECTION MAY REMAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY FROM TPA SOUTHWARD...BUT
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE COMING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENTLY THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE ENDING SOON
AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE BY FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT POSSIBLY REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA. A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING THE REAL PUSH OF
COOLER DRIER AIR WITH STRONG WINDS. ADVISORY AND OR GALE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
AND LIGHTEN SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. THE
HIGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON FRIDAY...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND COULD PRESENT A NEED FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS BASED
OFF ERC VALUES. OTHER THAN SOME OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG ON
FRIDAY MORNING...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  76  59  67 /  30   0   0   0
FMY  68  81  61  73 /  30  10   0   0
GIF  64  79  57  66 /  30   0   0   0
SRQ  66  77  60  70 /  30  10   0  10
BKV  57  76  48  64 /  30   0   0   0
SPG  69  76  63  68 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM...63/JILLSON
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD





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