Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 280026
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
826 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
The main synoptic features remain the same with high pressure over
the mid-Atlantic coast ridging southwest and a tropical wave moving
north of Cuba. The interaction between these 2 features will keep a
predominant east-northeast wind flow across the peninsula.
Rainshowers and storms have mostly moved into the coastal waters
with the exception of a stray storm over southwest Florida. Things
will quieten down overnight with mostly dry conditions over land and
an isolated shower over the gulf waters. Similiar conditions can be
expected tomorrow with 40-50 POPS during the afternoon/evening
hours. The National Hurricane Center is currently holding Invest 99L
just north of Cuba at 40 percent chance of development over the next
48 hours and a 50 percent chance over the next 5 days. There has
been a slight increase in convection over the past several hours,
but nothing to justify issuing advisories yet. We will continue to
closely monitor this system over the coming days. For more
information, you can go to the National Hurricane Center website at
httt://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. Current forecast looks in good shape with
no changes required for the next forecast issuance later this
Things are quieting down this evening after a pretty busy afternoon.
All terminals saw some thunderstorm activity that produced reduced
visibilities, lower ceilings and gusty winds. Will keep VCSH in the
northern terminals and VCTS in the southern terminals until 03Z when
VFR conditions will prevail overnight and through Sunday morning.
Tomorrow will be a very similiar day as today so will keep VCTS in
northern terminals starting at 18Z and starting at 15Z for the
southern terminals. No other aviation impacts expected.
A moderate pressure gradient continues between high pressure off
the mid-Atlantic coast and the tropical wave moving north of Cuba
and into the SE Gulf Sunday/Monday. The persistent east northeast
winds will continue with easterly surges near SCEC criteria
overnight and early morning hours. As the tropical wave slowly
moves northward into the east central then NE Gulf winds and seas
will remain elevated and small craft advisories may be needed with
numerous showers and thunderstorms likely to locally enhance winds
and seas through the week.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 78 94 78 91 / 30 50 20 60
FMY 77 91 76 90 / 20 50 30 70
GIF 76 92 76 91 / 20 40 20 60
SRQ 77 93 77 92 / 40 50 20 60
BKV 75 93 75 92 / 20 40 20 50
SPG 79 92 79 91 / 40 50 20 60