Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 170112
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA HAS DROPPED A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING 3 INCHES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH HAVE REMAINED
MUCH DRIER WITH SOME AREAS NOT SEEING ANY RAINFALL AT ALL. RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND THE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CHANGE LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TAMPA
BAY REGION. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL PULL THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN OUT OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LACK OF  SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND HAVE ADJUSTED
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND
WINDS ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALL TERMINALS HAVE REMAINED VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
VCTS REPORTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
BRINGING BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND HAVE HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR
NOW. BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE ADDED TO ANY AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
WEST WINDS IN THE 6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TONIGHT AND MOVING
SOUTHWARD EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY WITH
DECREASING NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS...THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY. A MORE MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SETUP ON THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  90 /  60  60  20  20
FMY  75  88  73  90 /  30  60  40  40
GIF  73  87  72  90 /  50  50  20  30
SRQ  75  86  76  90 /  50  60  30  20
BKV  71  89  68  90 /  60  60  20  20
SPG  77  87  77  89 /  60  60  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





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