Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 280856
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
456 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
TUESDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP L/W TROUGH IS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE DIGS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  THIS WILL LOWER HEIGHTS A BIT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT...AS THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH APPROACHES NORTH
FLORIDA.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE BAHAMAS WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AS A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AND
APPROACHES NORTH FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN TODAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.  THIS WILL PROMOTE A FEW EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHICH WILL MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY...WITH ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING PUSHING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS...WITH
HOTTEST TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.  STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 90 TO
THE LOWER 90S...BUT HIGH DEW POINT AIR ADVECTING OFF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH WARMER.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE TAMPA BAY AREA LATE TONIGHT.

MID TERM (TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY. A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A BAND OF
DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED STORMS TO MOST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
MAINLY THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY  NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT
SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT BY THE WEEKEND THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RETURN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...ON
THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP UP LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED
EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VCNTY TPA/PIE/SRQ/PGD/FMY/RSW
THIS MORNING...WITH MOST ACTIVITY ENDING ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP VCNTY LAL EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON.  LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY..AND WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH OVER THE
CENTRAL WATERS TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY...WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT.  SEAS WILL BUILD AS WINDS INCREASE.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  80  91  78 /  20  20  50  30
FMY  93  76  92  76 /  20  20  40  50
GIF  94  76  93  75 /  30  10  50  30
SRQ  92  79  91  78 /  20  20  50  40
BKV  93  76  93  71 /  20  20  50  30
SPG  91  80  90  80 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





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