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000
FXUS62 KTBW 250710
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
310 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TONIGHT)...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WIND FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING WITH THE CONVECTION
THEN BECOMING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL SUPPORT SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE HOT AND
MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE
COAST AND LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-103
DEGREE RANGE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON SO IF YOU
MUST BE OUTDOORS...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AFTER
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THINNING OUT WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
AGAIN SUPPORT SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED...WITH MID 70S OVER INLAND AREAS.

.MID TERM (SATURDAY - SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PERSIST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CONTINUED WEST TO SOUTHWEST
ONSHORE FLOW...WITH WARM MUGGY AIR BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SATURDAY AND MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON SPREADING INLAND AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL
INHIBIT CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THE STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE U/L RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH AS A ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG U/L TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION MONDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH NORTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SINKING SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION DAY THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 08Z TO HANDLE
DEVELOPING SHRA ALONG THE COAST OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED. MAY
SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS AFTER 14Z AS
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BUT FOR NOW HAVE
HANDLED WITH VCTS...BUT BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS MAY BECOME NECESSARY
IN ANY AMENDMENTS LATER THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION
VFR IS EXPECTED. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ABOUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW AND SLIGHT SEAS EXPECTED...WITH
AN ENHANCED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARD THE GA/FL
BORDERS ON MONDAY THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  79 /  40  20  30  20
FMY  93  76  93  78 /  40  20  60  20
GIF  92  75  95  76 /  50  20  60  20
SRQ  91  77  91  79 /  30  20  30  20
BKV  92  72  93  73 /  40  20  30  20
SPG  90  80  89  82 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
MID TERM/LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY