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000
FXUS62 KTBW 180843
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
343 AM EST WED DEC 18 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND PUSHES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS COAST FOR THURSDAY
AND CONTINUES EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS KEEP ZONAL FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE N/NE TODAY TO THE EAST
FOR THURSDAY AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN RISE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOISTURE MODERATING FOR THURSDAY
WHEN WINDS SHIFT EAST...AND CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE
OVER THE STATE AS WELL. THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME SPOTS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
FOR THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEARS TO BE MORE IN LINE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH THE FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AT THIS TIME WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND POSSIBLE RAIN FOR MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE EVEN LOWER FOR TUESDAY
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK...PUSHING OFFSHORE
OF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY THURSDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO RIDGE
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE N/NE...TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...AND INCREASING TO NEAR SCEC
LEVELS FROM THE SE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TO THE NW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
3-5 HOURS OF HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ERC VALUES ARE LOW AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH SO NO WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY. HUMIDITIES
WILL THEN RISE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  49  76  60 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  75  51  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  70  48  75  57 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  72  49  77  60 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  70  37  76  51 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  69  55  74  62 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/COLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE