Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 291945
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A STRONG U/L LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXTENSIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CENTRAL CUBA WILL PUSH WEST NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WILL BE
PULLED NORTH OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. FOR THIS REASON...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM HERNANDO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY INCLUDING THE
INTERIOR FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MAY
SHIFT NORTH. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH RAIN WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ANY CONVECTIVE BURSTS THAT
MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD DICTATE AREAS OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR IF TRAINING DEVELOPS
OR CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...TRACKING
IT WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC...THEN
MEANDERING IT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF/FLORIDA PANHANDLE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT. AS THIS FEATURES MOVES
INTO THE GULF IT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY REGENERATION.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK BEING ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
(PW`S INCREASING INTO THE 2.25 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE) ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RISK OF SOME EXCESSIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED FLOODING
RAINFALL DURING LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG
RIVERS OR IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND BE
READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

DURING THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD IN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA AS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST LA. LINGERING DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN OF DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE REGION EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AREAS...AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL
PRODUCE LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AND COULD IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SPREAD OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED
AND THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS AND
STREAMS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
PROPERTY AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  85  76  87 /  30  90  60  80
FMY  76  84  76  88 /  40  90  70  80
GIF  76  84  74  88 /  40  90  60  80
SRQ  76  86  76  88 /  30  90  70  80
BKV  74  87  74  87 /  30  80  60  80
SPG  78  86  77  87 /  30  90  60  80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND
     CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
     LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
     PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL



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