Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 020117
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
917 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 88D RETURNS SHOW THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER NO CONVECTION HAS FIRED OFF ALONG THIS
SEA BREEZE MERGER DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING AROUND 780MB. AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. WILL REMOVE EVENING RAIN
CHANCE WORDING FROM THE ZONES IN A MID EVENING UPDATE...OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO CONTINUE. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 03Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z
ON MONDAY BECOMING WEST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 18Z AT ALL COASTAL
TERMINALS AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AFFECTING KLAL...KPGD...KFMY
AND KRSW TERMINALS AFTER 20Z WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN DEPICTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT ALONG THE COAST WILL COLLAPSE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
RETURNING TO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE AROUND 10 PM.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING



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