Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 110524
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1020 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WEST
COAST. RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS OVER MY
NORTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING. HAVE NOT HAD ANY REPORTS OF
PRECIPITATION AND BELIEVE THIS IS GENERALLY VIRGA. HOWEVER, THE
GLASGOW NWS OFFICE IS EXPECTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THEIR AREA. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST
ALONG THE GLASGOW BORDER AREA TO RAISE POPS, PRIMARILY IN BLAINE
COUNTY, IN ORDER TO MATCH UP WITH THEIR INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. HAVE ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SLIGHTLY
LOWER TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS BASED UPON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND EARLY EVENING MODEL RUNS. FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE EXPECTED. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0600Z.

WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEATHER DISTURBANCES BRINGING
PERIODS OF MAINLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD-COVER, THOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED IN IN THE KHVR VICINITY TONIGHT. GUSTY
SW TO W WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES. ON THURSDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
PLAINS AND POTENTIALLY BRING SOME LOWER CLOUDS TO THE AREA NORTHEAST
OF A KCTB TO KLWT LINE. HOENISCH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 510 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016/

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS
OUR REGION CONTINUE AS MONTANA REMAINS UNDER THE BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT`S PERSISTED FOR PAST FEW DAYS. CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN EARLIER FORECAST ALONG/WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO STAY
SUFFICIENTLY CONCENTRATED RATHER THAN DRYING OUT AS IT CAME EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. BUT IT`S ALL MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS, NOT
PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ID PANHANDLE, WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER FOR OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME SCATTERED VALLEY
RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST MT STARTING TOMORROW AFTN, WHILE REST OF REGION REMAINS
DRY UNTIL LATE THURS NIGHT. AT THAT POINT, A WIDE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE
AND GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT SPREADS
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THERE IS STILL
SOME CONCERN HERE ON WHETHER THE MODELS ARE OVERPLAYING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE GIVEN THAT THE RIDGE AXIS (MOST STABLE
CONDITIONS) IS OVER WESTERN MT ON FRI AND THERE`S LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMICS (UPPER-LEVEL TROF, SURFACE COLD FRONT, ETC.) TO
HELP GENERATE THAT MUCH PRECIP. OUR CURRENT FORECAST DOES ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA STARTING EARLY FRI MORNING TO COVER
THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER
MODEL RUNS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP PROJECTIONS HOLD UP. FINALLY,
THOUGH TEMPS WILL COOL A BIT ON THURS/FRI, THEY WILL REMAIN A
GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ABOUT
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
WARANAUSKAS

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO
HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS...BUT OVERALL
NO MAJOR PRECIPITATION STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEK WILL BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVE RATHER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOST
DAYS. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS EACH DAY...IF YOUR LOCATION
HAPPENS TO RECEIVE A SHOWER. BOTH THE GFS/EC GENERALLY AGREE ON
THE OVERALL PATTERN/FEATURES...BUT DIFFER IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH.
THUS IT IS HARD TO PIN POINT WHICH PERIOD OR LOCATION HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO RECEIVE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION. THUS LEANED
MORE TOWARDS ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
OVER THE NORTH...AND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. ON MONDAY...IT STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR A HIGH WIND
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  41  58  33  51 /   0   0  20  20
CTB  38  53  30  44 /   0   0  20  20
HLN  33  48  31  49 /   0  10  30  20
BZN  25  43  27  44 /   0  10  30  20
WEY  14  35  20  38 /   0   0  10  10
DLN  29  44  29  46 /   0   0  10  10
HVR  32  50  26  40 /  10  10  10  30
LWT  35  48  29  42 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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