Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 282346
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
546 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Latest surface analysis shows surface moisture axis from west
central Missouri into central Oklahoma. Temperatures rose into the
mid 50s to mid 60s across the forecast area this afternoon. Winds
remained gusty across east central Kansas with gusts near 30 mph at
EMP at 20Z.

Tonight low level moisture axis sets up from west central Missouri
across east central Kansas into central Oklahoma. Forecast soundings
show saturation in the 950 to 925 mb level which may lead to low
level stratus and some patchy fog formation. Looks like areas along
and southeast of the Turnpike closer to I-35 have the best chance of
occurrence. Have increase clouds and adjusted lows a tad upward. The
NAM remains the most aggressive while the other models are not as
aggressive especially closer to the Turnpike. The stratus should go
away by mid morning Saturday.

Saturday, thermal axis remains over the forecast area. Temperatures
should be similar to slightly higher than today with mixing down
from 900-875mb. So expect highs in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will
drop off during the afternoon hours across north central Kansas just
ahead of the surface trough across central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Strong cold front still on track to enter the northwest 1/3 of the
county warning area late in the night and traverse the cwa through
midday Sunday. Axis of low level warm advection will linger across
the southeast corner of the cwa most of Saturday night before
translating southeastward towards sunrise so have edged low temps up
through the mid 40s to account for this. Models are in fair
agreement with the frontal passage across the remainder of the cwa
through 18z Sunday...so nearly steady or slowly falling temps look
on target for Sunday ranging from the lower 30s northwest corner to
the lower 50s by mid morning in the Garnett vcnty.

Very cold air will continue to funnel southward Sunday night and
early Monday morning and have lowered low temps slightly through the
teens with highs on Monday only from the upper 20s north of I 70 to
the lower 30s to the south.

As the high pressure slides off to the east of the cwa by
Tuesday...return southerly flow will warm temps back into the upper
30s and lower 40s Tuesday then the middle to upper 40s on Wednesday
before another weak boundary moves into the area to keep highs on
the 40s for Thursday. A weak shortwave trough will emerge from the
Great Basin into the central plains by Thursday with a chance for
light rain Wed night into Thu night before accelerating off to the
east by Friday with a dry fcst and highs remaining in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

Little change from previous forecast. Southerly winds will
continue through Saturday and VFR expected. One computer model
forecasts developing IFR CIGs and VSBYs late tonight and Saturday
morning, but no agreement from other models, and otherwise dry
conditions makes this seem unlikely.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...GDP





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