Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 300456
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1156 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Main focus in the short term will be the potential for a few
strong to severe storms this afternoon across east central Kansas,
where a few patches of sun have brought MUCAPEs up to around 500
J/kg, and deep layer shear remains around 60 kts. The window for
any strong storms will be short as the surface low now near ICT
lifts northeast, dragging a cold front through the remainder of
the forecast area by early this evening and sweeping any robust
deep convection out of the area. Storms are developing now and
with limited instability may take a bit to get going, but will
bear watching over the next several hours as they push northeast
across southeastern portions of the forecast area. Low-level shear
and helicities are quite strong, so main concerns with any strong,
organized convection will be hail and perhaps an isolated tornado.
Stratus and rain showers will follow behind on the northwest side
of the low, and will linger through the overnight and into midday
Thursday before exiting off to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A brief lull in precipitation is expected Thursday night through
Friday as shortwave ridging builds over the region, then another
wave in the stream of disturbances slides across the southern
CONUS this weekend through early in the work week, bringing
precipitation chances Saturday and Sunday. Have added some
isolated thunder on Saturday afternoon and evening, but the track
of the surface low will be far enough south that most instability
will focus mainly south of the CWA. Another low will follow in its
wake Wednesday and Thursday with another very similar track,
bringing a brief dry period Monday, then rain chances Tuesday
through the end of the forecast period. Severe weather potential
will depend on the track of each of these surface lows and their
associated boundaries, but at this time appears to be focused more
to the south of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Wrap around moisture, around an upper low across southeast KS,
moving into MO will provide chances for showers. In the wrap
around area of moisture ceilings will drop to IFR or eve LIFR
during the morning hours then improve to around 1,000 feet during
the afternoon. Visibilities may also drop to 3 to 4 miles in light
rain and light fog.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Gargan



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