Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 180031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. A few nominal C-level flares were
observed over the period. Region 2158 (N15W93) produced a C7 flare at
17/1948 UTC after departing the West limb. Two new regions were numbered
on the Northeast limb as Region 2169 (N05E66, Cso/beta) and 2170
(N07E64, Hsx/alpha). These regions, along with the others on the visible
disk, were largely inactive and unremarkable. A CME became visible off
the East limb in LASCO C2 shortly before 17/1800 UTC, however it was
determined to be far-sided. No Earth directed CMEs were observed during
the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity for day one (18 Sep). Days two and
three (19-20 Sep) are likely to be low with slight chance for an M
flare.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at or near background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three
days (18-20 Sep). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three
days (18-20 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained nominal. Solar wind speeds averaged
approximately 380 km/s. Total field varied slightly between 4 nT and 9
nT. The Bz component saw a maximum southward deviation to -5 nT at the
onset of the period, but became mostly positive between 5 nT and 9 nT
after 17/0400 UTC, and remained so through the end of the period. Phi
angle was predominately at a negative (towards) orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels for the
next three days (18-20 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An isolated unsettled period
occurred at the period onset, from 17/0000-0300 UTC.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet (Below
G1-Minor) for the next three days (18-20 Sep).


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