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FXXX12 KWNP 250031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Aug 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2578 (N09W62, Cro/beta) continued to
slowly decay and was void of eruptive activity. Region 2579 (N11W08,
Dao/beta) also continued to slowly decay and its magnetic gradient
weakened further. Very little shear is present and the region was
inactive. Region 2580 (S18E34, Hsx/alpha) changed little and was
primarily stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a chance of C-class
flares on day one (25 Aug) and a slight chance on day two (26 Aug) due
to the regions continued decaying trends and lack of eruptive activity
(continuity). Additionally, Region 2578 will rotate to and beyond the
limb by day three (27 Aug), further decreasing the slight chance of
eruptive C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Electron redistribution associated with CH HSS effects is expected to
result in the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to be at normal to
moderate levels on day one (25 Aug) and normal to moderate levels on day
two (26 Aug), with a chance for high levels. Day three (27 Aug) is
likely to see an increase to moderate to high levels. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all
three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CIR influences followed
by onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total IMF strength gradually
declined from 15 nT to values of 3 to 5 nT. The Bz component oscillated
between north and south orientations, but was predominantly in a
northward direction most of the period. The phi angle was primarily in a
negative (towards the Sun) sector. Density decreased from peaks of about
15 pfu to end of period values around 5 pfu.

Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated, but begin a slow
decrease on day one (25 Aug) under the continued influence of the CH
HSS. Solar wind speeds are anticipated to decline further on day two (26
Aug) as the CH HSS begins rotating out of a geoeffective position. A
return to more ambient background-like conditions is expected by day
three (27 Aug).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached minor (G1-Minor) storm levels early in the
period due to the enhanced IMF, a favorable orientation, and increased
solar wind speed. The overall geomagnetic response decreased to quiet to
active levels afterwards under the elevated solar wind speed, but more
rarefied space of the CH HSS.

The geomagnetic field is expected to respond with mainly quiet to
unsettled levels on day one (25 Aug), with a chance for an isolated
active period in reaction to the continued influence of elevated solar
wind speeds. Primarily quiet levels, with an isolated period of
unsettled conditions, is expected on day two (26 Aug) under the
decreasing solar wind speeds. Day three (27 Aug) is expected to be quiet
under the more ambient background-like solar wind regime. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.