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FXXX12 KWNP 010031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2294 (S14W28, Dai/beta-gamma)
produced the largest event of the period, a C5/Sf at 28/0939 UTC, as
well as several other low level C-class events. There appears to be a
faint CME associated with the C5 event visible in C2 imagery beginning
at 28/1112 UTC, however, a large back-sided halo CME that became visible
in imagery around 28/0424 UTC is masking the event making it difficult
to pick out. None-the-less, an attempt will be made to model the event
to determine geoeffectiveness.

Region 2290 (N22W63, Cao/beta) also produced weak C-class flares; a
C1/Sf at 28/0808 UTC, a C2 at 28/1340 UTC and another C1 at 28/2305 UTC.
Near the time of the C2 flare, a filament eruption centered near N16W06
was observed in SDO 193 imagery around 28/1355 UTC. An associated CME
can be seen in LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 28/1512 UTC. The majority
of the ejecta appears to be going north but due to its location it will
also be modeled.

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) flare activity over the next three days (01-03 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 239 pfu at 28/1600 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly
enhanced this period, but remained well below event thresholds.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to persist at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (01-03
Mar) with a chance for high levels towards the end of the forecast
period due to effects from a high speed solar wind stream.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at
or near background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three days
(01-03 Mar).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters began the period at nominal levels. Wind speeds
hovered near 320 km/s. Total field ranged from 2 nT to 6 nT while Bz
varied between +/- 5 nT. After approximately 28/1400 UTC, solar wind
parameters reflected the possible beginning of coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS) influence. Solar wind speeds increased to near 465 km/s.
IMF Bt increased to a maximum of 15 nT while Bz reached a maximum
southward deviation of -11 nT. The phi angle was predominately negative
(towards), although there were a few short deviations into a positive
(away) sector, which may indicate CH influence has not yet fully set in.

Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced on days
one and two (01-02 Mar) as the negative polarity southern polar CH HSS
moves into a more geoeffective position. Recurrence data suggests solar
wind velocities in excess of 700 km/s and Bt values in excess of 20 nT
could be observed during this event. CH influence is expected to begin
to subside on day three (03 Mar).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels this period due to
the onset of effects from the southern polar CH HSS.

Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on days
one and two (01-02 Mar) due to effects of the recurrent negative
polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active levels are expected on day three (03
Mar) as CH HSS effects begin to subside. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.