Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 231231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jan 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with only an isolated B2 flare observed at
22/1227 UTC from Region 2628 (N12E14, Dso/beta).  Region 2628 was
relatively stable over the period while slight decay was observed in
Regions 2626 (N08W56, Hsx/alpha) and 2627 (N06W05, Dai/beta).  Region
2625 (N01W70) decayed to a plage region.  No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)
over the next three days (23-25 Jan) due to the flare potential from
Regions 2627 and 2628.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a maximum flux of 1,154 pfu observed at 22/1450 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to
high levels all three days of the forecast period (23-25 Jan).  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a waning positive polarity CH
HSS influence over the period.  Solar wind speed decreased from
approximately 535 km/s to 440 km/s.  Total field ranged from 1-5 nT
while the Bz component was mostly north between -2 nT and 3 nT.  Phi
angle was oriented in a positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually decline to nominal
levels over the next three days (23-25 Jan) as CH HSS influence
subsides.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels
over the next three days (23-25 Jan).


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