Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 271230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jan 27 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2268 (S10E17,
Fkc/beta-gamma) produced an isolated M1 flare at 26/1653 UTC near the
beginning of the period, but has been relatively quiet since, only
producing a few low-level C-class flares. Region 2268 did exhibit signs
of intermediate spot growth as well as some shearing in the trailer spot
area during the period. Regions 2273 (S03W04, Dao/beta-gamma) and 2275
displayed moderate growth during the period. Region 2273 produced a
couple of low level C-class flares, while Region 2275 was responsible
for a few optical sub-faint flare activity. None of the aforementioned
flares appeared to have any associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and
no Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for an
isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare over the next three days
(27-29 Jan).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to be at normal to moderate levels through the forecast period (27-29
Jan). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels (Below S1-Minor) through the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment began the period near ambient background
levels. Total field strength averaged near 8 nT, Bz fluctuated between
+/- 5 nT, and wind speeds averaged near 360 km/s. Shortly before 27/0400
UTC, the Phi angle returned to a more pronounced negative (towards)
angle, Bt saw a maximum southward deflection to -9 nT, and wind speeds
increased to near 450 km/s. Conditions were further enhanced a short
time later, pushing the total field strength to near 13 nT and wind
speeds as high as 521 km/s. Conditions have since stabilized, but remain
slightly enhanced, likely in response to the southern coronal hole
influence.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be disturbed and may
show additional speed enhancements over the next three days (27-29 Jan)
with solar wind speeds possible in the 450 to 550 km/s range.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to quiet over the period, with
mostly unsettled conditions observed.

.Forecast...
Quiet to active levels (Below G1-Minor) are expected through the
forecast period (27-29 Jan) due to continued coronal hole high speed
stream influence from the southern crown polar coronal hole.



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