Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 211230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Nov 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with a single B1 flare from plage Region
2688 (N11, L-239), reported by the GOES-15 spacecraft, at 21/0203 UTC.
The visible disk was spotless and there were no Earth-directed CMEs
observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (21-23 Nov).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a
peak flux of 3,310 pfu at 20/1820 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on day one (21 Nov) after particle redistribution
occurred following the arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
Days two and three (22-23 Nov) should see a return to high levels in
response to elevated wind speeds from the above feature. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels
throughout the forecast period (21-23 Nov).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated continued influence from a positive
polarity CH HSS. Wind speed was below 400 km/s prior to 20/2130 at which
time it began a steady increase to a period high of 626 km/s at 21/0946
UTC. Total field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 4 nT until approximately
20/1500, then it became enhanced peaking at a period high of 15 nT near
20/2330 UTC. The Bz component dropped as low as -13 nT and saw several
sustained periods of southward orientation. The phi angle was primarily
positive (away from Sun).

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced throughout the
forecast period (21-23 Nov) under the persistent influence of the
aforementioned positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels in
response to CH HSS influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reached G1 (Minor) storm levels
during the remainder of day 1 (21 Nov), and unsettled to active
conditions are expected on day 2 (22 Nov), as CH HSS influence persists.
Day three (23 Nov) is expected to respond with quiet to unsettled
conditions as CH HSS influence wanes.



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