Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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051
FXXX12 KWNP 101231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Feb 10 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The largest solar event of the period was a
B9 flare at 10/0250 UTC from Region 2497 (N13E15, Dai/beta-gamma).
Region 2497 continued as the most magnetically complex sunspot group on
the visible disk. It appeared to increase in areal coverage, primarily
in its leader and intermediate spots. A second B9 flare was observed at
09/1939 UTC from Region 2494 (S12W64, Dao/beta). Region 2494 was stable
with slight decay noted in its trailer spots. There were no
Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the
reporting period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels all three days
(10-12 Feb) with occasional C-class flares likely on days one and two
(10-11 Feb) due primarily to the flare potential of Regions 2497 and
2494. Day three (12 Feb) is expected to have solar activity continue at
very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares as Region 2494 begins
to rotate beyond the west limb, leaving Region 2497 as the primary
contributing source.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels,
while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels all three days (10-12 Feb), with a decrease to mainly
normal levels the later half of day three (12 Feb) due to electron
redistribution from CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to remain at background levels.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME effects and a continued
return to near ambient conditions. Solar wind speed displayed a steady
decline throughout the period, starting at approximately 450 km/s and
posting end of period values near 350 km/s. Total field strength (Bt)
showed a similar trend, starting at a period maximum of 10 nt and
dropping to 3 nT at the time of this report. The Bz component of the IMF
was variable ranging between +/-7 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a
negative (towards the sun) sector for the duration of the period.

.Forecast...
CME effects are waning, therefore, solar wind parameters are expected to
continue a trend towards background conditions on day one (10 Feb), with
near background conditions likely on day two (11 Feb). A solar sector
boundary change (SSBC) is expected sometime on day one or two. Late on
day two the IMF is likely to see a minor enhancement due to effects from
an approaching CIR. Day three (12 Feb) is expected to see an increase in
solar winds and a disturbed IMF due to CIR impacts and effects from the
expected positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at predominantly quiet
levels, with an isolated unsettled period on day one (10 Feb) in
response to waning CME effects. Day two (11 Feb) is expected to be
mostly quiet until later in the day when unsettled conditions are
expected due to the IMF becoming slightly disturbed and enhanced due to
an approaching CIR. Day three (12 Feb) is expected see a few periods of
active conditions due to CIR and CH HSS effects.



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