Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 070030
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2381 (N15E31,
Dkc/beta-gamma) produced an M1/Sn flare (R1-Minor) at 06/0844 UTC and
then later an M1 at 06/2040 UTC. The region also produced several
C-class flares and continued to grow in size and spot count. All other
regions on the disk were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed
CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class
(R3-Strong) activity over the next three days (07-09 Jul), particularly
from Region 2381.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels throughout the period (07-09 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of weakening coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased and
ended the period at speeds near 500 km/s. IMF total field values ranged
between 3-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +4 nT to -6 nT.
The phi angle was predominately in a negative (toward the Sun) solar
sector orientation throughout the period.

.Forecast...
A return to an ambient solar wind environment is expected beginning on
day one (07 Jul) and remain undisturbed throughout the period.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field conditions were at active levels at the beginning of
the period, but returned to quiet conditions by 06/0900 UTC as CH
effects began to subside.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels
throughout the period (07-09 Jul).



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