Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 290031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Jul 29 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest flare of the period was a
C2/1f at 28/1410 UTC from Region 2125 (S13E46, Cao/beta).  Slight growth
was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 2126 (S10W11,
Dai/beta-gamma) and the trailing spot of Region 2125.  Growth was also
observed in Region 2127 (S08E62, Dac/beta-delta) which appears to have a
delta separating the northern and southern portions of the consolidated
spot mass.  Beginning at approximately 28/0300 UTC, part of a larger
filament structure in the NE quadrant erupted centered near N14E50.  No
apparent coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were associated with this event.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight chance for
M-class flaring (R1-Minor) for the forecast period (28-30 Jul).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (29-31 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated a solar sector boundary crossing from a
positive (away) to a negative (towards) orientation at 28/0310 UTC
followed by the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 320 km/s to a high of 455
km/s at 28/1327 UTC and remained near 420 km/s through the rest of the
period.  Total field reached an initial maximum of 12 nT at 28/0525 UTC
with Bz fluctuating between +12 nT and -8 nT.  Total field was disturbed
until late in the period when measurements calmed to 3 nT by
approximately 28/1835 UTC.

.Forecast...
Enhancements in solar wind parameters caused by the onset of a
geoeffective CH HSS are expected to persist through midday on day one
(29 Jul) and slowly diminish thereafter.  A return to nominal conditions
is expected by days two through three (30-31 Jul).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to CH HSS
influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels through day one (29 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist.  A return to
mostly quiet conditions are expected on days two through three (30-31
Jul).



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