Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 261231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Feb 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low this period.  New Region 2640 (N11E31,
Box/beta) was numbered this period and the remaining two regions were
stable.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (26-28 Feb).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a
peak flux of 1,287 pfu observed at 25/1500 UTC.  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
to high levels over the next three days (26-28 Feb).  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued, but weakening influence
of a positive polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind speed steadily decreased from
initial values of around 500-520 km/s to end-of-period values near
425-450 km/s.  Total field strength values ranged from 1-5 nT while the
Bz component was between +/-4 nT.  Phi angle was predominantly oriented
in a positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue decreasing on day one (26
Feb) as CH HSS influence subsides.  Background solar wind parameters are
expected on day two and through most of day three (27-28 Feb) with the
return of a nominal solar wind regime.  By late on day three, total
interplanetary field strength and density are likely to begin to
increase as a CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS rotates into
geoeffective position.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two
(26-27 Feb) as solar wind conditions slowly return to nominal levels.
By late on day three (28 Feb), unsettled to active conditions are likely
as a CIR preceding a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become
geoeffective.


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