Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 131857
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL ID...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN NV...

...CNTRL ID...
NO CHANGE TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA AND ADJACENT ISOLATED
DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA.  GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
OVER NRN ID AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD... SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.  THE MAIN FORECASTING ISSUE AT THIS TIME
CONCERNS WET OR DRY STORMS AS THE DOMINANT MODE.  HIGHER
MOISTURE...WITH OVER ONE INCH PW SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NERN WA...NRN
ID INTO FAR WRN MT WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TOWARDS SRN ID.
WILL KEEP THE SCATTERED THUNDER AREA FOR NOW AS THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES AND WARM TO HOT/DRY
SURFACE CONDITIONS AND MODEST MUCAPE.

...NERN NV...
NO CHANGE TO THIS SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA.

...ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN GREAT BASIN...

ONLY CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA WEST TO
THE CNTRL SIERRAS BASED ON LIMITED AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.

...PTNS SRN CA...
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WETTING RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN CA ON MONDAY...THIS AREA REMAINS IN LONG-TERM DROUGHT
WITH VERY DRY FUELS.  LIGHTNING OUTSIDE THE MAIN RAIN AREAS OR WITH
ANY STORM THAT PRODUCES LITTLE WETTING RAINS COULD TRIGGER SOME FIRE
STARTS.

..BOTHWELL.. 07/13/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0337 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CREST AN UPPER RIDGE
POSITIONED OVER THE WRN CONUS...TRACKING ACROSS THE INTERIOR PAC NW
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. A RESULTANT INCREASE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DRY TSTMS IS EXPECTED FROM CNTRL NV NWD INTO NRN ID AND NERN WA.
MEANWHILE...A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN...WITH STRENGTHENING ELYS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF ANTICYLONIC
FLOW CONTINUING TO SPREAD RICHER MONSOONAL MOISTURE W/NWWD ACROSS
SRN/CNTRL CA AND SRN NV. FARTHER E...A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER
MIDWEST...DRIVING AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SWD WITH A MUCH DRIER
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVERSPREADING THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS.

...INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN GREAT BASIN...
TSTM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN ID AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMANATING OUT OF CNTRL WA. THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SCATTERED DRY TSTMS CURRENTLY REMAINS CENTERED
OVER CNTRL ID...WHERE PW VALUES OF 0.7-0.9 INCH WILL RESIDE IN
RESPONSE TO AN INFLUX OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE DRY/INVERTED-V
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE MAINTAINED WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S F. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON...COINCIDING WITH STRENGTHENING OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS AND MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 500-1000 J/KG. FARTHER N
/INCLUDING NRN ID AND ERN WA/...HIGHER PW VALUES OF 1-1.25 INCH ARE
LIKELY IN PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE COVERAGE OF
TSTMS IS LIKELY TO BE HIGH...AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
VERY WARM /80S-90S F/...SUFFICIENT TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL EXIST
FOR A GREATER MIXTURE OF WET TSTMS. THUS...ONLY AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM
RISK AREA WILL BE INCLUDED HERE ATTM.

A SECONDARY AREA OF ENHANCED TSTM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER
NERN NV...IN PROXIMITY TO A STRONG MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE. WHILE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE WEAK AND STORM MOTIONS
SLOW...A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN COVERAGE ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING
OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMIDST 250-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED COVERAGE FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR DRY
TSTMS...WITH SFC RH VALUES NEAR 15 PERCENT AND A DEEP INVERTED-V
BOUNDARY LAYER.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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