Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 270600
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO VALLEY
INTO WESTERN AZ...

...Synopsis...
An embedded shortwave trough in larger-scale cyclonic flow will lead
to stronger height falls over the southwestern deserts on Friday.
This will bring even stronger north/northwesterly flow to the region
as compared to the past few days. Further east, the mid/upper level
west/southwesterly jet streak will continue to spread across NM into
the southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure will extend from
the southwest deserts to the southern High Plains while higher
pressure begins to settle into the Pacific Northwest and northern
portions of the Great Basin. This will lead to a tightening pressure
gradient across much of the southwestern U.S, and widespread strong
winds are expected with fire weather concerns again impacting parts
of the southwestern states into TX.

Across FL, a tightening surface pressure gradient is forecast as
strong high pressure resides over the western Atlantic and the
deepening low pressure over the southern High Plains. Drying will
occur over portions of the central peninsula and fire weather
concerns are anticipated.

...Lower CO Valley into western AZ...

Intense north/northwest winds are expected to develop across the
region by midday as temperatures warm into the 80s and low 90s. As
this occurs, RH values will plummet from the single digits to low
teens. Sustained winds from 20-30 mph with higher gusts will be
common. Where fuels are available, critical fire weather conditions
are expected.

...Portions of southern NM into west TX...

Wind speeds will not be as strong as on Thursday, but still
sufficient for fire weather concerns with sustained westerly winds
from 15-25 mph expected. RH values will be somewhat marginal from
12-18 percent. Some brief/locally critical conditions will be
possible, but these concerns are not expected to be as widespread as
previous days.

...Portions of the central FL Peninsula...

Strong heating during the day will allow temperatures to climb into
the 90s and deep boundary-layer mixing will occur. This will allow
relative humidity values to fall into the 35-45 percent range. Due
to the modest surface pressure gradient increase across the region,
wind speeds will be somewhat stronger than on Thursday at 10-15 mph.
Some brief/spotty critical conditions can not be ruled out and an
upgrade to critical could be needed in subsequent outlooks should
wind speeds trend stronger and RH values lower.

...Southern CA coastal ranges and foothills...

Strong northerly winds are expected across the region on Friday,
along with warm temperatures and low RH values. While meteorological
conditions would support elevated to critical conditions, fuels
across the region are too moist and unreceptive to fire spread.

..Leitman.. 04/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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