Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 301726
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE CONTINUED EXPECTATION FOR
ISOLATED DRY TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN CA AND SW ORE. NO
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED WITH INCREASED MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS ACTING AS THE
MAIN FACTORS PROMOTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...ANY TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SALMON...TRINITY...AND/OR SISKIYOU
MOUNTAINS.

..MOSIER.. 07/30/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0254 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE D2/FRI PERIOD...WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO
MEANDER ACROSS THE GULF STREAM.  OUT WEST...MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTENING THAT...ONCE
COMBINED WITH INSOLATION AND SURFACE HEATING...WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS DRY AREAS OF THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MITIGATED BY RELATIVELY
WEAK FLOW IN AREAS OF DRY FUELS PRIMARILY LOCATED ACROSS THE
DROUGHT-STRICKEN WESTERN U.S.

...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON...
GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY PERSISTENT IN 15-30 KNOT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
NEVADA...RESULTING IN INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.  SURFACE HEATING
BENEATH THIS MOIST PLUME WILL RESULT IN STEEP LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
REGION.  STORMS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE MINIMAL RAINFALL GIVEN 0.5-0.7 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INDICATED ON MODEL FORECAST PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION.  AN
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION HAS BEEN MADE FOR THIS
FORECAST GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED WET/DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
REGION AMIDST DRY FUELS SUPPORTIVE OF FIRE STARTS AND RAPID SPREAD.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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