274
AXNT20 KNHC 140447
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jul 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0435 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 19N,
moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 11N and between 37W and 44W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 19N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection near this
wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania
near 19N16W, continuing southwestward to 11N25W to 11N47W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N and east of 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An upper level low over the NW Gulf is supporting a few showers in
the area. In the NE Gulf, an upper level trough sustains some
showers and isolated thunderstorms over Florida and nearby waters.
Meanwhile, storms that developed earlier today over western
Yucatan are moving across the eastern Bay of Campeche. The
remainder of the basin is under drier conditions.

At the surface, a 1020 mb high pressure in the eastern Gulf
waters forces moderate to locally strong E-SE winds over much of
the western part of the basin, west of 90W. This was confirmed by
a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are
2-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure prevails across the NE Gulf,
producing gentle to moderate SE winds over the western Gulf, and
mainly light winds elsewhere. The high pressure will drift slowly
westward and into the NW Gulf by Wed. In the meantime, a trough of
low pressure near the southeastern U.S. coast is expected move
westward across Florida during the next day or so, and into the
northeastern Gulf by Tue. Environmental conditions could support
some gradual development of this system during the middle to late
part of this week while it moves westward over the northeastern
and north-central portions of the Gulf, accompanied by active
weather.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the SW North Atlantic to the
central Caribbean Sea, supporting some showers and isolated
thunderstorms over western Hispaniola and SE Cuba. Some showers
are also seen in the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, drier conditions are
prevalent.

High pressure over the central Atlantic forces fresh to strong
easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of
Honduras. Seas in these waters are 5-9 ft. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the north-
central and eastern Caribbean. In the remainder of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will prevail N of the area along
29N through Mon. High pressure will then build westward across
the regional Atlantic and into Florida Tue through Thu. This
pattern will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades
and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through early
Tue then expand across much of the central basin late Tue through
Thu. Fresh E winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras
through Fri, pulsing to locally strong tonight. Moderate to fresh
winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean
through Tue while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail NW portions.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough paralleling the eastern coast of Florida and
divergence aloft support scattered showers west of 75W. A few
showers are also found south of Bermuda due to an upper level
trough. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an
extensive subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas south of 25N and between 25W and
65W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds seas of 5-8 ft are noted east of
25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak ridge along 29N will dominate
the forecast area east of 70W through Mon. High pressure will
then build westward across the region and into Florida Tue through
Thu in the wake of a trough of low pressure developing across the
NW zones tonight. This trough is forecast to move westward across
Florida during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf
by Tue. Active weather is expected in association with this
system over the waters west of 75W through Tue. The pressure
gradient between the Atlantic ridge building westward and the
trough of low pressure will support moderate to fresh SE to S
winds across the Bahamas and through the NW zones Tue through
early Thu.

$$
Delgado