Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 210557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ELONGATED 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12N54W...IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALSO ATTACHED TO THIS LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 52W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE
MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS
OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N22W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT
10 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N53W TO 13N54W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT.  THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW
DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING
ALOFT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THIS WAVE...WITH MOISTURE MAXIMA S OF
20N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
9N38W TO 13N52W TO 1009 MB LOW AT 12N54W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION AND THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 35W-
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N88W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND 10-15 KT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINING
WATERS EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MAINLY E OF 83W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF TAMPICO
MEXICO AT 23N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E
GULF NEAR 26N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THIS HIGH CENTER
IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NNW GULF FROM
26N-28N BETWEEN 93W-96W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF CUBA...MOVING QUICKLY
OFFSHORE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED
SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA AND NORTHEAST OF JAMAICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE PANAMA COAST...E OF COSTA RICA
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 79W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE MAJORITY
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ALOFT...ONE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
NEAR 18N82W AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER N HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W
THAT EXTENDS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 74W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW AND TROPICAL
WAVE. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

EVENING CONVECTION IS OVER E HISPANIOLA DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W
WITH SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE BAHAMAS ALONG
25N BETWEEN 78W-79W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 36N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR
30N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
24N67W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
MAINLY E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RIVERA/HUFFMAN


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