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000
AXNT20 KNHC 150000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES SW TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH 0S30W TO 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 10W-15W AND FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 17W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC TO THE NW BASIN WHILE
DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB
HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AND PROVIDES SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
OF 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES OVER THE NW BASIN N OF 27N W OF 90W.
RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW UP TO 20 KT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NW GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS
MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE SW N ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
19N75W TO 19N82W TO NORTHERN BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 73W-78W
AND W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGES OVER HISPANIOLA AND SUPPORTS BROKEN
SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
ENTERING THE SE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT
SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH
IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABILITY ACROSS THE BASIN.
OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO VANISH BY SAT MORNING. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THE WINDS UP TO
20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM SAT THROUGH MON MORNING
WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS SUPPORTING BROKEN
SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SE OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT AND STALL THROUGH
SAT MORNING WHEN IS EXPECTED TO VANISH. AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ACTIVITY WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N74W
COVERS THE W ATLC AND PROVIDES NELY FLOW OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. FURTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH BETWEEN 50W-68W
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 22N65W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 19N75W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA
INDICATE THERE IS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
33N52W TO 26N54W TO 22N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND TROUGH ARE N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-
59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD
FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 35N38W
COVERS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 17N. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY SAT MORNING AND START DISSIPATING
BY SUN MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR