Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240320
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 06N109W to 03N125W to 06N140W. No
significant convection noted.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from 32N112W through the northern Gulf of
California, across the Baja Penisula to 21N122W. Scatterometer
data shows fresh southerly winds ahead of the front in Gulf of
California, and a large area of fresh to strong west-northwest
winds behind the front moving into Baja California Norte. Large
long period NW swell associated with the front will sweep east
and southeast through Tuesday, affecting waters primarily west
of the Baja Peninsula with 12-16 ft seas, hazardous near-shore
marine conditions and heavy dangerous surf along the coastline.
The front will dissipate by Tuesday afternoon, with marine and
surf conditions steadily improving during the next three days.
8 to 10 ft seas will persist west of 95W through Thursday. High
pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico and a tight pressure
gradient in southern Mexico is supporting strong northerly winds
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will diminish overnight as the
high moves east and the gradient relaxes.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the region
through Tuesday. Seas will generally range between 3 and 5 ft
until Tuesday, then build about a foot in response to arriving
NW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure centered near 31N145W extends a ridge east-
southeast to near 18N115W. The ridge is building eastward behind
a cold front moving across the Baja Peninsula, and is supporting
fresh to strong trade winds from 15N to 20N west of 130W. Large
NW swell continues to spread across most of forecast waters with
8 ft seas reaching the equator west of 100W. Another smaller but
still significant set of NW swell with seas to 14 ft will reach
the northwest part of the area Wednesday afternoon, then spread
southeastward through Thursday night.

$$
Mundell



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