Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 220909

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
909 UTC Mon Jan 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.


A surface trough extends from 08N75W to 05N90W to 08N112W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N112W to 09N125W to beyond 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 110W and
115W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the
ITCZ between 125W and 140W.



Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong winds are expected to develop Monday
night, increasing to near gale force Tuesday. Winds are expected
to briefly increase to gale force on Wednesday night as a cold
front crosses SE Mexico. Strong to near gale winds will then
prevail Thursday through Friday morning, before diminishing late

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong winds are expected across
the central and southern portions of the Gulf through Tuesday
before diminishing midweek. Winds will increase once again this
weekend as high pressure builds east toward the region.

Subsiding NW swell continues to keep seas in the 8 to 11 ft
range off the coast of the Baja California Peninsula. This large
swell is producing high surf along coasts and outer reefs of Baja
California and mainland Mexico. While seas will slowly subside
the next couple of days, they are still expected to remain above
8 ft over this area into the middle of the week. A fresh set of
NW swell will propagate into the waters off the coast of Baja
California Norte Thu night. Seas associated with this swell will
peak near 13 ft Friday. Meanwhile, fresh to strong NW winds are
possible just west of Baja California Norte late this week as
high pressure builds east toward the region.


Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh over the Gulf of Papagayo
tonight and will then pulse to strong each night Tuesday night
through Thursday night. Elsewhere N of 09N, light to gentle
offshore flow will prevail. Gentle southerly winds will prevail S
of 09N for the next few days.


High pressure of 1030 mb is centered just north of the area near
32N130W. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting fresh to strong winds from 11N to 25N and west of
120W with peak seas of 14 ft, as confirmed by a pair of
overnight satellite altimeter passes. Combined seas of 12 ft or
greater will continue to prevail within this region of strong
tradewinds, in a mix of long period NW swell and short period NE
wind waves. Seas 8 ft or greater cover nearly all the the open
waters N of 05N and west of 103W. The fresh to strong trades will
prevail north of the ITCZ to around 20N for the next couple of
days as high pressure remains north of the forecast waters. Areal
coverage of the fresh to strong trades and seas 12 ft or greater
will diminish by midweek as the area of high pressure weakens
and a cold front approaches the NW waters. High pressure building
behind the cold front will once again increase coverage of the
fresh to strong trades Thursday.

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