Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032105
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN NEAR 18.7N 115.8W AT 2100 UTC SEPTEMBER 3
MOVING N OR 360 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT
GUSTS 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED
ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 112W AND 118W. KEVIN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE WITH DIMINISHING SST
AND A DRIER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 09N90W TO 11N97W TO
10N105W TO 12N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN 91W AND 99W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF
TROUGH BETWEEN 99W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE JIMENA REMAINS JUST W OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEAS
GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE COVER A PORTION OF WESTERN FORECAST
WATERS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT CURRENTLY FROM 10N TO 28N W
OF 136W. SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF
THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 43N148W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 24N114W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND OVER MOST OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF JIMENA AND KEVIN. CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL PREVAILS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS S OF A LINE
FROM 03N133W TO 10N123W TO 10N112W TO 03.4S95W. THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SAT AFTERNOON SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER WILL
COVER THE AREA FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 124W.

$$
AL


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