Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 260902

1005 UTC THU MAY 26 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N85W to 08.5N95W to low pres
near 10.5N111W to 08N123W. The ITCZ extends from 08N123W to
09N135W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted south of the monsoon trough from 05N to 08N
between 87W and 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough
between 104W and 108W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted within 210 nm of monsoon trough between
110W and 120W.


High pressure of 1034 mb centered N of the area near 43N137W
extends a ridge SE to near 16N110W. The pressure gradient
between the area of high pressure and lower pressure across
Mexico is producing fresh to strong northwest winds across the
near and offshore waters of the Baja Peninsula. The pressure
gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough and ITCZ is
supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds generally south
of 22N and west of 120W. Seas across this trade wind zone will
remain in the 5-7 ft range through the end of the week. Weak low
pressure of 1012 mb is embedded within the monsoon trough near
10.5N111W as depicted in the latest ascat pass. Winds over the
NW quadrant of the low are reaching near 20 kt. Active
convection is noted over the western semicircle of the low. The
low is expected to remain weak over the next couple of days as
it drifts WNW.

Over the far eastern portion of the area, light to gentle winds
prevail with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range in SW swell. SW
monsoonal winds will strengthen over the next day as a Kelvin
wave propagates through the area and enhances westerly winds.
Seas will build to near 8 ft in this region of enhanced
monsoonal flow.

Gulf of California...

Weak low pressure has developed over the far northern Gulf of
California near 30N114W. Fresh to strong SW winds prevail over
the far northern Gulf of california over the southern semicircle
of the low. Variable light to gentle winds prevail across the
remainder of the Gulf of California. The weak low pressure will
dissipate this morning with winds diminishing.

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