604
FXUS61 KBGM 022300
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
700 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue through Friday along with above
normal temperatures. A brief cool down with rain showers is
expected for the weekend, especially Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
700 PM Update...
Current conditions, upwind satellite, and model trends support
a longer period of clear sky this evening followed by a more
gradual increase in high thin clouds. Sky forecast adjusted
accordingly, with low temperatures down another 1-2 degrees
given a bit more radiational cooling under weak high pressure
overnight. Sheltered valleys of the Susquehanna headwater
valleys could reach down to around 40 degrees.

Previous discussion...
Dry weather and mostly clear skies is expected tonight along
with lows in the 40s.

High pressure moves east of the area on Friday, resulting in a
southeasterly return flow. This will bring slightly warmer
conditions to the area. Increasing moisture may bring some
cloud cover, but skies should still at least be partly sunny.
Highs are expected to be in the 70s for most of the area.

A slow moving cold front will approach the area Friday night,
which will allow for increasing clouds. By late Friday
night/early Saturday morning, a few rain showers may reach areas
west of I-81, but the majority of the rain showers should hold
off until the daytime on Saturday. Lows are expected to be in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
1245 PM Update...

A slow-moving cold front sweeping across the area Saturday will
bring rounds of rain showers Saturday and into Sunday night.
Temperatures will decrease from the mid- to high-70s Friday to
the high-50s to mid-60s Saturday and Sunday as that slow-moving
cold front moves through Central NY and NE PA. Currently, total
precipitation ranges from up to an inch in northern portions of
Central NY to up to a half of an inch elsewhere Saturday morning
through Sunday evening. Additionally, there are chances for
non-severe afternoon thunderstorms on Sunday, mainly for the
Twin Tiers and NE PA. These are subject to change as model
guidance attempts to predict the speed of progression the front
moves. The slower the front progresses, the higher the total
precipitation will likely be. We`ll keep monitoring the
progression of this front as we head into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1245 PM Update...

Lingering showers can be expected Monday as the aforementioned
slow-moving cold front exits our area. A weak warm front is
expected to move into the area heading into the mid-week, with
temperatures increasing back to the mid- to high-70s by
Wednesday. Overall a generally quiet weather pattern with some
nuisance rain showers, and chances for afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions continue at all terminals through 00Z Saturday,
with a couple small possible exceptions. Guidance is hinting
that KRME and KELM could briefly see fog during the few hours up
to and including dawn. Crossover temperatures at KELM, that is
the lowest dewpoints from afternoon, was in the lower 40s which
lends to low confidence in valley fog occurring. Temperature
itself would also need to also hit low 40s overnight for better
confidence, but the forecast low is 45, thus valley fog seems
unlikely. KRME on the other hand shows a moist near-surface
layer in model soundings, to the point that light mist is
probable enough for a TEMPO group. High pressure settling in
will cut winds this evening, but will lightly pick up out of the
southeast on Friday as high  pressure departs.

Outlook...


Friday night...Mainly VFR, but a few showers/brief restrictions
possible west of KSYR-KBGM.

Saturday through Sunday night...A couple passing frontal
boundaries will result in scattered showers and restrictions,
especially Saturday night onward. Isolated thunder.

Monday through Tuesday...Mostly dry Monday to midday Tuesday,
but increasing chance of rain and restrictions Tuesday afternoon
through night. Embedded thunder also possible late Tuesday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MDP
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MDP