Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 242310
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
610 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL AND BRING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER MORE ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM UPPER LOW ALOFT AND WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL KEEP
SKIES CLOUDY IN THE NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY STRONG GRADIENT STAYS
ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS WILL ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND HOLDING ON THE LONGEST IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 MPH LATE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OR SO BUT END IT IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BACK INTO THE 20-35 MPH
RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THERE OR DECREASE AS LOW LIFTS AWAY.

WITH LITTLE UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT EXPECT MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IF ANY.

FOR TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT USED A GUIDANCE AVERAGE IN THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30. WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THINK
WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

SMALL AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL
INDIANA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
EVEN WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT AT 850 ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND HAD HIGHS FOLLOW
SUIT WITH AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE GREATEST.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. NOW LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HAVE INCREASED POPS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
WEDNESDAY COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THUS
COULD SEE PRECIP START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND EVEN RAIN
IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY LIGHT.

THURSDAY COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURE-WISE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN TRENDING
A LITTLE WARMER SO ACCEPTED THIS FROM THE SUPERBLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 232 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS DUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN...AND EVEN A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME SO LEFT POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE
INITIALIZED WELL. ONLY NEED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 610 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT LAF AND PERHAPS
IND. IND/HUF/BMG MORE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN HIGHER END MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOW END VFR. LIKELY TO SEE SOME FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
THE TWO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY.

WINDS WILL GUST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE RELAXING A BIT TO DOWN
AROUND 08-12KT. WINDS WILL BE 10KT OR LESS TOMORROW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 250-280 THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...NIELD

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