Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 060340
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL FINALLY DRIFT FARTHER EAST
TONIGHT...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO
BUILD ACROSS INDIANA. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
ON FRIDAY.

THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF INDIANA ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING EVEN
WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE ON WEST WINDS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THEN. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS INDIANA BY
SUNDAY...BRINING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 907 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

A FEW DIURNAL TYPE SHOWERS CURRENTLY LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THESE SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL ABOUT 060300Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA...DRIFTING SOUTH QUICKLY.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
TENNESSEE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AMID LIGHT NW
FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY COLUMN AS DO THE TIME HEIGHT
SECTIONS ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY. GIVEN THE LIMITED ADVECTION...WILL TREND TOWARD
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

PLEASANT WEATHER APPEARS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS SUGGEST HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH LOOKS TO
DRIFT SOUTH OF INDIANA...ALLOWING WARMER AND WESTERLY FLOW TO
ARRIVE CENTRAL INDIANA. AGAIN TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND STILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE
MAVMOS GIVEN THE FULL SUN AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.

THE SAME PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT MUCH ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LOWS AT OR ABOVE
MAVMOS GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A THERMAL RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH OF
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VERY GOOD WARM AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO NEAR 15C.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS
NEAR 80...WHICH SHOULD BE REACHABLE. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
CHANCES FRO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA...PARTICULARLY THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
DAYTIME HEATING MAXES OUT. WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.

THE PASSING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER ON
SUNDAY. BEST UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN NEARLY SATURATED ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT LINGERINGS IN THE AREA. THUS WILL TREND POPS
HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH...WHERE
THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL IS MORE LIKELY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO
KEEP SOME LOW CHC POPS FAR SOUTH ON SUNDAY GIVEN THE PROXIMITRY TO
THE STALLED FRONT. WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN
MAVMOS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH...AND STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

MODELS DEPICT AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD AS BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS
DOWN AND NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH A
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CONSENSUS ASIDE TO PERHAPS NUDGE
HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT OWING TO POTENTIAL PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
INFLUENCES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FLYING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR FOG AFTER
09Z AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS WITH THE LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SHOULD ONLY SEE SOME AC
INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST 16Z-18Z.

NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING BUT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/JAS
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...MK



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