Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 311813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP



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