Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 161707
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1207 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Arctic air will remain entrenched over central Indiana through
Wednesday. Then, temperatures will warm to well above normal this
weekend. A frontal system will bring rain to the area, especially
Sunday night and Sunday night. A mix with snowflakes is possible by
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today and Tonight/...
Issued at 955 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Adjusted mention of flurries to scattered with widespread light
echoes noted upstream and made adjustments to better reflect
current and expected sky cover the rest of the day into tonight.
Wind chill advisory continues through noon. Previous discussion
follows.

Issued at 620 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Updated to lower minimum wind chills to 20 below per latest
obs.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

The main weather impact today, and especially this morning, will be
the cold with wind chills to around 15 degrees below zero at times.
Thus, a borderline Wind Chill Advisory will remain in effect through
noon.

Also, there could be some flurries or light snows around today and
tonight as energy rotates around an elongated Great Lakes upper low
and through central Indiana. Could see snow showers with slightly
more intensity over northern sections due to Lake Effect off Lake
Michigan.

Blend temperatures look reasonable. Moderate confidence temperatures
will start off around zero degrees at daybreak and only top out from
around 10 to 15 degrees late today. It will not be quiet as cold
tonight with lows in the single digits above zero and wind chills as
low as 8 degrees below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
Issued at 220 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures.

Wednesday will start off with the former elongated upper low opened
as a trough and southeast of central Indiana. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure will be over the Ozarks and southern Plains. This high
will drop to the southern states by Thursday and allow a dry
southwest flow of air into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Also
noticeable will be increasing sunshine Wednesday with little cloud
cover thereafter.

Regional blend has temperatures closer to normal by Thursday, which
looks reasonable with the limited cloud cover and southwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Issued at 225 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

Ensembles suggest a progressive upper pattern across the area
during this period. Upper ridging over the Ohio Valley over the
weekend will give way to an upper trough that is expected to move
into the Midwest by early next week.

At this time, there are the usual differences among the individual
members as to the timing and intensity of the surface system
associated with the upper trough. However,there is good agreement
that the dominate precipitation type will be rain, with the only
threat for mixed precipitation being on Monday at the tail end of
the event. Will go with PoPs from Saturday to Monday to cover this
system.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/18Z TAFs/...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

MVFR likely much of the period.

MVFR ceilings with brief forays up into low end VFR will likely
persist much of the period as an upper trough axis moves through
the area. Cannot rule out a few flurries or snow showers,
particularly at LAF where lake enhancement is adding to the
situation. Will carry an explicit mention at LAF and leave out
elsewhere for now.

Winds through the period will become more northwesterly with time,
generally 8-11KT or less.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/Nield
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...Nield


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